Peak Oil Crisis: Alarms are sounding

[Nbadan]

http://www.jk-webdesign.biz/MM2005/images/Gas%20Line4.jpg
Forget $4 gas, by Labor Day you could be looking at no gas at any price

The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding
by Tom Whipple


Across the world alarm bells are starting to clang. Above every gas station, a large sign is proclaiming that prices are on an unstoppable climb towards un-affordability. In Paris, the International Energy Agency has announced that the demand for oil is likely to exceed the supply later this year, unless, of course, OPEC steps up production. In the Middle East OPEC spokesmen reiterate time after time that all is well, there is plenty of oil, and there is no need to increase production.

In Ottawa, a parliamentary hearing on energy security broke up in turmoil last week when a distinguished professor pointed out that, unless Canada stopped selling 60 percent of its oil to the US, Canadians would soon be “freezing in the dark.” In Nigeria, Chevron is evacuating hundreds of employees to forestall the possibility that they too will be hauled off to the swamps as hostages in an increasingly bitter insurgency. The Chinese just announced that their April oil imports were 23 percent higher than last April’s. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela -- everywhere you look – there are unmistakable warnings of troubles to come.

These, however, are issues for later. Right now, on the top of every American’s agenda should be the question of whether we are going to get through the summer without shortages and gas lines— opinions are mixed.

First, all seem to agree that gasoline prices, which set new highs last week, will continue to rise. Even the Director of the Energy Information Agency, whose job it is to put a rosy spin on adverse developments, told a Senate Committee earlier this week that retail prices will go higher heading into the vacation season because not all of the recent rise in wholesale costs has been reflected in what consumers pay at the pump. So far high prices, which are approaching $4 a gallon in some places on the West Coast, seem to have done little to dampen demand although they may be cutting into WalMart sales.

Since significant cuts in US gasoline consumption don’t seem to be in the cards, at current price levels, then we are back to refinery output, gasoline imports, and our stockpiles to see us through.

Two years ago, before the hurricanes put so much stress on US refineries, they were being operated at 95 percent of capacity. We got through last summer by importing 1.5 million barrels of gasoline a day during May from foreign refineries. According to a senior EIA oil analyst, 800,000 barrels a day of US refining capacity is still shutdown. This translates into about 400,000 barrels of lost gasoline production each day or nearly 3 million barrels a week.

Last week the situation eased a bit. Although US refineries are still operating below 90 percent of capacity and processed only a trivial 30,000 barrels a day more of crude than in the previous week, our refiners managed to squeeze out more gasoline, so that production increased by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.1 million. The “good” news, however, is that gasoline imports jumped to 1.5 million which resulted in the first significant (1.7 million barrel) increase in our stockpiles in many weeks. However, 1.2 million of the 1.7 million barrel increase was on the isolated West Coast. The increase in gasoline stocks east of the Rockies was only 500,000 barrels last week – way lower than necessary to forestall problems later this summer.

The questions now become: Will this increased supply, which is based on imports of foreign gasoline be sustained over the summer; and are the stockpiles already so low that they will not be sufficient to meet the increased demands of the summer driving season which starts in about two weeks? Last year the demand for gasoline jumped from 9.1 million barrels a day in the spring to 9.6 million during the summer months. Unless very high prices start reducing demand for gasoline we will be looking at new highs this summer.

Earlier this week Matthew Simmons, of Twilight in the Desert fame, suggested that prospects for an uninterrupted summer of driving may be worse than government spokesmen have been letting on. Simmons notes that gasoline stockpiles at refineries are “works in progress” and that millions of barrels of gasoline moving across the country in pipelines and barges are not available for delivery to your gas station. Therefore, the drop in inventory that has taken place this spring is from local bulk terminals that supply your gas stations. In this case, the drop in “useful” stockpiles may be on the order of 30 percent and we could be very close to the point where shortages will develop.

Where does all this leave us? The short answer is, in an increasingly grim situation. When respected analysts say our gasoline situation is beyond the tipping point and that at least some of us are likely to be sitting in gas lines before Labor Day, we should heed the warning. Looking at the broader, worldwide picture, the situation is equally grim. When the normally staid International Energy Agency starts issuing a stream of dire warnings about shortages or much higher prices before the year is out, we should start thinking about a markedly different future.

Energy Bulletin (http://www.energybulletin.net/29754.html)

It's time to put a real energy crisis team together - minus Cheney, and think about nationalizing oil refineries.

[boutons_]

Americans complain about still-cheap $3+ gas, but consumption is UP for the year, and "polls say" American plan to drive as much as ever this summer.

Higher gas prices won't affect consumption much until the price hits, and STAYS, well above $4. European gas is taxed up to $6+ which causes average mileage to be way above US average mileage, with that trend continuing.

[sabar]

Yerp, we are peaking and declining in 10-15 years, we are going to be witnessing history. And we can't run the oil supplies into the ground either, some time after the peaking, oil will stop being burned and used as fuel as the remainders are used for more important things like plastics and medicine. That's why you see this effect in the prices before it has actually peaked, because the oil supply for GASOLINE is shorter than the total oil supply.

[RandomGuy]

http://www.jk-webdesign.biz/MM2005/images/Gas%20Line4.jpg
Forget $4 gas, by Labor Day you could be looking at no gas at any price

The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding
by Tom Whipple



Energy Bulletin (http://www.energybulletin.net/29754.html)

It's time to put a real energy crisis team together - minus Cheney, and think about nationalizing oil refineries.

I can't think of a worse solution to this than to let the government run these things.

In regards to the rest of it, I have read a lot about recent drilling technology that has extended our ability to pump oil out of proven reserves.

In the past, we have been able to extract only about 1 out of 3 barrels in any given discovered oil field and the new technology moves that to 2 out of 3, vastly increasing the available oil.

That new technology does require more expensive drilling techniques, so will only be used if the underlying price is there to support that cost though.

In any case we will see demand start to outstrip our ability to supply it, causing the price point to nudge upwards compared to inflation over time.

I don't expect my grandchildren to be driving gasoline powered vehicles.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

In any case we will see demand start to outstrip our ability to supply it, causing the price point to nudge upwards compared to inflation over time.

I don't expect my grandchildren to be driving gasoline powered vehicles.

We'd better start switching to alternatives then, but I don't see that happening at all. I see Peakoil as the greatest threat to civilisation that we currently face (with climate change the greatest later this century) and here's why:

In short, there are over a billion vehicles on the planet, all running on petroleum products. Why? Petrol is a "naturally occurring", high-energy content fuel that is crucially easily transportable. So, are there any other fuels which contain similar levels of energy content and transportability? No. Thus, we have a problem.

You can talk about running vehicles on electricity or hydrogen, but you still have to generate both of these, and neither is very transportable... H2, for example, is far more difficult to contain than natural gas. Also, every time you convert energy from one form to another you lose some energy in the conversion process (entropy, second law of thermodynamics), so producing these sources of energy is very energy inefficient. In order to run the planet's vehicle fleet on electricity you would have to more than double the current electricity generation capacity, a MASSIVE task. How are you going to do that given other demands for electricity which are constantly rising, and the necessary shift towards low-emissions, renewable electricity generation technology necessitated by climate change? Then, you have to re-equip/replace those 1,000,000,000 vehicles, another MASSIVE task.

My point, you can't just snap your fingers and make the switch occur. It is something that will have to happen over decades at the very least, at a time the world will be scrambling to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, so where is the electricity going to come from?

Unless we discover mini-cold fusion in the very near future, the nature of transport on the planet will be massively downsized and transformed this century... unless of course technology brings us a miracle, which I don't see.

[whottt]

So let me get this straight...

You guys completely distrust this government, you claim we are embroiled in a war for no other reason than Oil Profiteering...most of you want to impeach the President and consider him a criminal...

Yet you want to give the Government complete control of the Refineries?




Please....stop thinking. Just stop. Before someone gets hurt.

[velik_m]

We'd better start switching to alternatives then, but I don't see that happening at all. I see Peakoil as the greatest threat to civilisation that we currently face (with climate change the greatest later this century) and here's why:

In short, there are over a billion vehicles on the planet, all running on petroleum products. Why? Petrol is a "naturally occurring", high-energy content fuel that is crucially easily transportable. So, are there any other fuels which contain similar levels of energy content and transportability? No. Thus, we have a problem.

You can talk about running vehicles on electricity or hydrogen, but you still have to generate both of these, and neither is very transportable... H2, for example, is far more difficult to contain than natural gas. Also, every time you convert energy from one form to another you lose some energy in the conversion process (entropy, second law of thermodynamics), so producing these sources of energy is very energy inefficient. In order to run the planet's vehicle fleet on electricity you would have to more than double the current electricity generation capacity, a MASSIVE task. How are you going to do that given other demands for electricity which are constantly rising, and the necessary shift towards low-emissions, renewable electricity generation technology necessitated by climate change? Then, you have to re-equip/replace those 1,000,000,000 vehicles, another MASSIVE task.

My point, you can't just snap your fingers and make the switch occur. It is something that will have to happen over decades at the very least, at a time the world will be scrambling to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, so where is the electricity going to come from?

Unless we discover mini-cold fusion in the very near future, the nature of transport on the planet will be massively downsized and transformed this century... unless of course technology brings us a miracle, which I don't see.

Nuclear power.

[xrayzebra]

http://www.jk-webdesign.biz/MM2005/images/Gas%20Line4.jpg
Forget $4 gas, by Labor Day you could be looking at no gas at any price

The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding
by Tom Whipple



Energy Bulletin (http://www.energybulletin.net/29754.html)

It's time to put a real energy crisis team together - minus Cheney, and think about nationalizing oil refineries.


It would help if the environmentalist would just get out of
the way and let the oilco's build some new refineries,
increase capacity, or the politico's would get a backbone
and tell the environmental wackos to get lost.

[xrayzebra]

We'd better start switching to alternatives then, but I don't see that happening at all. I see Peakoil as the greatest threat to civilisation that we currently face (with climate change the greatest later this century) and here's why:

In short, there are over a billion vehicles on the planet, all running on petroleum products. Why? Petrol is a "naturally occurring", high-energy content fuel that is crucially easily transportable. So, are there any other fuels which contain similar levels of energy content and transportability? No. Thus, we have a problem.

You can talk about running vehicles on electricity or hydrogen, but you still have to generate both of these, and neither is very transportable... H2, for example, is far more difficult to contain than natural gas. Also, every time you convert energy from one form to another you lose some energy in the conversion process (entropy, second law of thermodynamics), so producing these sources of energy is very energy inefficient. In order to run the planet's vehicle fleet on electricity you would have to more than double the current electricity generation capacity, a MASSIVE task. How are you going to do that given other demands for electricity which are constantly rising, and the necessary shift towards low-emissions, renewable electricity generation technology necessitated by climate change? Then, you have to re-equip/replace those 1,000,000,000 vehicles, another MASSIVE task.

My point, you can't just snap your fingers and make the switch occur. It is something that will have to happen over decades at the very least, at a time the world will be scrambling to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, so where is the electricity going to come from?

Unless we discover mini-cold fusion in the very near future, the nature of transport on the planet will be massively downsized and transformed this century... unless of course technology brings us a miracle, which I don't see.

Well see you are back, and back to spouting the same
old crap, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

How did you enjoy you trip to SA?

[Nbadan]

The Spoiled Brat Rebellion
By Dale Allen Pfeiffer


I truly do fear for this country, and for the world. Since the turn of the century, two countries have been invaded and ravaged in dubious or wholly illegal wars. Several other countries have been made to bleed or allowed to bleed because of business considerations, and the duly elected president of yet another country was nearly deposed by a fascist coup. A gulag has been established under US jurisdiction, where prisoners are detained indefinitely without trial, stripped of their rights, tortured and force-fed. Torture has been established as an accepted practice. The US constitution has been shredded, leaving US citizens under surveillance and subject to unlimited detention. Victims of one of the worst natural disasters in the history of this nation are further victimized by the very organizations that are supposed to help them through their tribulation. And the US, alone, is blocking any attempt to deal with environmental problems that threaten the future of life on this planet, while labeling environmental activists as eco-terrorists and persecuting them under harsh new anti-terrorism laws.

And does the public of this once free and still falsely proud nation stand up against these immoral and despicable acts? What do the benefactors of the American Revolution finally rise up and unite against? The rising price of gasoline. Force the US public to become cognizant of any of the truly evil things that are done daily on their behalf and they will feel uncomfortable and look away. But hit them in their pocketbooks and they will rise up in protest.

People all over the country who never raised their voices for any other cause are talking of boycotting gas stations in an effort to drive down gasoline prices. While some might think this is a good thing, a first dawning of awareness and activism, I am worried that it is the first whining of the spoiled brats that populate this once great land. How come they have not raised their voices over a thousand more worthy causes?

Notice that this protest is solely about their immediate gratification. If the boycott is successful, then the gas stations will lower their prices a little bit for the time being. And our political leaders will assume that this is a mandate in favor of intervention into oil rich lands and the importance of economics over the environment. The chance of long term success for this boycott is an impossibility because the boycott is based upon false premises.

Certainly, there is price gouging and profiteering in the oil business, but this is not why prices are surging so high. US demand for gasoline is taxing the ability of our refineries to supply us with gasoline. In April, the US had finished gasoline stocks at 11 to 11.5 days of supply. As Matthew Simmons has pointed out, compare this to 1979 when we had the longest gas lines since rationing in World War Two. In April of 1979, finished stocks had dropped to about 30 days of supply. We currently stand at almost a third of that.

This is why gasoline prices are going to continue climbing through the summer, no matter how much consumers howl or how many gas stations they ransack. And if any of our refineries are forces to idle production due to a breakdown or a natural catastrophe, prices will rise that much faster. Demand is on the verge of exceeding supply, and the two may never converge again. This is an effect of peak oil. Though there is still plenty of oil in the ground and plenty being pumped, production cannot keep up with demand.

So why don't the oil majors build new refineries or expand those already in existence? Because they know the investment will never be paid off. We will not see any expansion of refineries in this country until the US government foots the bill, or offers in some way to make the venture profitable.

How high can prices go? As high as they can until the economy tanks and demand is crushed. Prices might exceed four dollars per gallon before the summer is over, and may even approach five. To find out how high prices might possibly go, we would need to determine at what price a significant portion of the US public would no longer be able to afford the gasoline to go to work or do their grocery shopping. At what price will the US public begin abandoning their cars?

If we reach that point this year, it is doubtful that we will linger there for long. Eventually, as demand collapses and the summer driving season draws to a close, gasoline inventories should begin to build back up, and prices should drop. The operative word here is should. Nobody knows for sure. Anything could happen between now and the fall, such as the invasion of Iran and an oil embargo against the US. Or another bad season of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

Some do understand that a gasoline boycott is no more than an ineffectual consumer temper tantrum. Most of those who see beyond this say that we need hybrid cars and biofuels in the short term, and in the long term a return to the way we used to do things before the oil age. Yet this proposed solution also demonstrates a lack of understanding. Studies of many different models of cars show that for the entire life of the vehicle (including its construction) hybrids consistently rank as among the most energy hungry of vehicles — more so than many some SUVs. And biofuels will at best hasten environmental deterioration and drive up the price of food while doing little to control energy prices.

As for a return to the old ways. We built up this oil-based technological civilization over the course of a century. We cannot dismantle it overnight, certainly not as smoothly as it was built up. Most of the infrastructure of the old days has been eradicated. And in the US, our society has been built around the car culture. We are now sprawled over the countryside in a manner that would be virtually impossible without individual automotive transportation. Never mind that our population grown six-fold since the beginning of the oil age. What is more, while there is much that is commendable about the old ways, let us bear in mind that prior to the industrial revolution, all prosperous civilizations were run by slave labor. Before the age of oil, the fuel that ran the world was the sweat of enchained humans and draft animals. I doubt that any of us seriously want to return to those days.

No, the boycott of gas stations is the first sign of angry US consumers rearing their ugly heads. Gasoline prices are likely to decline again sometime within the year — if not completely back to the level they were at before this latest price surge began. Yet, in the not to distant future prices will begin to rise again as production diminishes. And this time there will be no letting up. They will rise to the point where consumers who are now whining will be squealing in pain as they can no longer afford to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table.

At that point, US consumers will rise up and demand a solution. The spoiled brat rebellion will truly begin. Yet it will not be a rebellion for better social values and environmental sustainability, not if it is founded on entirely selfish desires. It will be a demand to bring down prices and return the market to normal at whatever cost.
The evils of the Bush regime were made possible by the tragic deaths of 9/11. Who will rise to power on the back of the spoiled brat rebellion, and what greater evils will they perpetrate? Will a spoiled brat rebellion give birth to a fascist debt slave empire out to rape what remains of the planet?

The only way to avoid this is to educate the public, while there is still time. The question is: can we educate the public without access to the mass media? Will the US public cease to be merely self-interested consumers and realize for once and for all that their well-being is intimately tied to the greater good of all fellow human beings and the planet?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://www.jk-webdesign.biz/MM2005/images/Gas%20Line4.jpg
Forget $4 gas, by Labor Day you could be looking at no gas at any price

The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding
by Tom Whipple



Energy Bulletin (http://www.energybulletin.net/29754.html)

It's time to put a real energy crisis team together - minus Cheney, and think about nationalizing oil refineries.

How can this be happening? All the Democrats told us before the last election that if we put them in charge of Congress, they'd get gas prices lower. Why haven't they done anything?

Oh yeah, it's because they're getting their pockets lined by big oil money just as much as the Republicans.

[Nbadan]

...Because Democrats are supposed to solve all these problems wing-nut politicians have ignored for 6 years, in just a few short months.

:rolleyes

[johnsmith]

...Because Democrats are supposed to solve all these problems wing-nut politicians have ignored for 6 years, in just a few short months.

:rolleyes


I expect to hear this statement over and over again for the next several years. It's a built in, automatic, go to excuse for Democrats.

[Nbadan]

The Wing-nuts have ignored this issue for years, they had all the political power not the Demos, but yet you want to call out Demos who don't have the votes, yet, to over-ride a wing-nut President's veto on any issue that might not benefit the rich and powerful. You gotta get your middle-class head out of the clouds boy.

[DarkReign]

Oh yeah, it's because they're getting their pockets lined by big oil money just as much as the Republicans.

Holy shit, we have a realist!!

[DarkReign]

The Wing-nuts have ignored this issue for years, they had all the political power not the Demos, but yet you want to call out Demos who don't have the votes, yet, to over-ride a wing-nut President's veto on any issue that might not benefit the rich and powerful. You gotta get your middle-class head out of the clouds boy.

Just STFU. As much as it may pain you to know this, the Democrats are no mroe better or worse than the Republicans.

Thats news to 70% of the people who post here.

Fact is, not one motherfucker on Capital Hill actually considers his constituency when endorsing/villifying legislation. Im sorry, is that news?

These sorry excuses for Democrats took over under the illusion that America wanted them. That America needed them. Thats bullshit and everyone knows it. America voted Republicans out. Thats what happened. It was just a fucking coincidence that they were replaced by delusional Democrats.

Politicians do not have answers. They do not seek answers. They do not want answers. If there was a clear, viable solution to our "energy problem/dependancy", what interest do they have in exploring it? Dont think for a moment that give 2 shits about you, how does it benefit them?

Are ethanol farmers hiring lobbyists as we speak to line their pocketbooks with $$? No.

Is ethanol, as an alternative fuel source, going to produce money in at least the same capacity as oil? No.

Does such legislation, which has a snowballs chance in hell, even if it were to pass, guarantee re-election? Hell no.

Then why the fuck do you dumbshits think they actually want to spend time and effort in this personally worthless endeavor?

Democrats have a better shot at election/re-election as long as they attack Bush and his policies/actions in relation to Iraq.

Republicans have a better shot of being elected/re-elected as long as they keep bashing the easy target that is leftist liberal douchebags by just looking smarter and less fanatical.

Because that is all these slime-fuck, mutant maggot politicians actually care about. How long can they ride the gravy train and in which way can this ride benefit me and my family long term.

The days of yore when politicians actually had a cursory interest in its constituency died right after Nixon resigned.

The general American public does nothing for their elected officials, why the fuck should they do anything for them? The public doesnt pay their bills, or finance their campaign, or get them re-elected. Special interest groups do, lobbyists do, etc.

The very fact that some of you willingly blind yourself to these truths is proof of your ignorance. The American government is broken and has been for some time....its just the least broken government in the world. And Lord knows we aspire to be no better than that.

[Nbadan]

Just STFU. As much as it may pain you to know this, the Democrats are no mroe better or worse than the Republicans.

Thats news to 70% of the people who post here.

It's about accountability DR. Sure, there are corrupt Demos, just like Al Jefferson, but before we had to rely on the manipulative M$M to investigate these corrupt fucks, now, with the power of the internet we don't. Remember that its every citizens civic responsibility to make sure that their government is functioning correctly. Politicians may have the power of money and influence, but your vote is the final word. So don't solely blame politics or politicians for doing what you and millions of apathetic people like you let them get away with doing. Let your voice be heard.

[RandomGuy]

Nuclear power.

=more terrorist targets.

More nuclear plants=more waste shipments=more waste facilities=more fuel shipments=more terrorist targets.

I would further point out that NO NUCLEAR POWER PLANT HAS EVER BEEN BUILT WITHOUT MASSIVE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES.

This means that it is not economically competitive, because if it were, we would see more nukes than we have already.

There is also the NIMBY factor to consider.

I have no objections to nuclear power per se, but I don't see it as a practical solution at all.

Nuclear power is vulnerable at every stage to nutjobs determined to do harm, and THAT will never change, and the security required to mitagate that risk will make nuclear power that much more expensive.

[RandomGuy]

Just STFU. As much as it may pain you to know this, the Democrats are no mroe better or worse than the Republicans.

Thats news to 70% of the people who post here.

Fact is, not one motherfucker on Capital Hill actually considers his constituency when endorsing/villifying legislation. Im sorry, is that news?


This is an overly cynical generalization.

[DarkReign]

This is an overly cynical generalization.

Maybe true. But am I wrong?

[RandomGuy]

Maybe true. But am I wrong?
[Fact is, not one motherfucker on Capital Hill actually considers his constituency when endorsing/villifying legislation. Im sorry, is that news?--DR comment inserted by RG for clarity]

I would say yes.

These guys know that someone in their districts is looking over their shoulders at some point.

I would say, though, it probably isn't much of an exaggeration. A lot of comments on bills tend to take on partisan lines.

BUT

I do think that a good chunk of congresspeople genuinely do consider their constituents when making decisions.

[johnsmith]

The Wing-nuts have ignored this issue for years, they had all the political power not the Demos, but yet you want to call out Demos who don't have the votes, yet, to over-ride a wing-nut President's veto on any issue that might not benefit the rich and powerful. You gotta get your middle-class head out of the clouds boy.


I can only assume you were talking to me as the above quote was posted immediately after mine.........that said, when did I call out Demos? I was only stating what I expect to hear over the next few years.

How's the foreclosure going though?

[RandomGuy]

I expect to hear this statement over and over again for the next several years. It's a built in, automatic, go to excuse for Democrats.

That does not make it any less true.

At the very least we will need to do *something* to pay back the massive amount of new debt issued in the last few years, and the trillion dollar war didn't help much, either. :depressed

[Nbadan]

Time to issue some subpoenas...

Pricey gasoline costs U.S. consumers extra $20 bln
By Tom Doggett


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The jump in U.S. gasoline prices this year has so far drained consumers of an extra $20 billion, or about $146 for each passenger car in the country, the Government Accountability Office told Congress on Tuesday.

The national price for regular unleaded gasoline hit a record $3.22 a gallon this week, and is up $1.05 since the beginning of February, according to the Energy Department.

The added expense is taking money away from consumers to spend on other goods and services.

"Spending billions more on gasoline constrains consumers' budgets, leaving less money available for other purchases," GAO's Thomas McCool said in written testimony to a House Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on the cause of record prices.

Like many other energy experts, McCool said the GAO has found that current high pump costs are the result of a large amount of oil refining capacity being offline, strong gasoline demand and lower fuel inventories. ...

Officials from oil giants Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Shell Oil, along with major oil refiner Valero Energy Corp., were asked to testify at the hearing but declined to appear. ...

Yahoo (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070522/us_nm/usa_congress_gasoline_dc)