The math on this is real simple

[Mavs<Spurs]

Al Michaels pointed out after the Spurs won the first two games of the finals in 05 that the math on this is real simple.

Jazz are down 0-2, gotta win 4

Only 5 games left.

Can the Jazz win 4 of the next 5?

Only if they win all 3 games at home and win 1 in San Antonio?

Tough to beat the Spurs 2 games in a row, though and if they don't win game 5 in San Antonio, then they face 2 elimination games, the last of which is in San Antonio.

Sounds difficult.

Or if they win 2 of the 3 in Utah and win 2 in San Antonio?

The chances of this are remote.



Either they have to win all of their home games or they have to win both games in San Antonio.

Neither scenario seems likely.

[Mavs<Spurs]

Of course, in the Finals, with a 2-0 lead in the 2-3-2 format, you are almost in an invincible position.

For the other team must beat you 3 times in a row which is hardly likely (Pistons in 05 came close- which I grant you is not unlikely, but this makes the point that even they didn't actually accomplish it, did they- except against the overconfident 04 Lakers).

Or the other team must beat you 2 times in a row in your own home gym, very unlikely as well.


This format isn't as strong as that, but we don't need it to be.

:fro

[SpursIndonesia]

Well, the Heat got it done last year with a back door sweep. So did the Lakers with their 0.4 miracle in 2004. It CAN be done, so the Spurs better keep their alert & focus the finish off this resilient Jazz.

[easjer]

You know that is precisely what they did in Houston, right?

And Houston was supposed to be the better team.

Hardly a done deal. We need to pick up one of the next two.

[Spurminator]

Al Michaels pointed out after the Spurs won the first two games of the finals in 05 that the math on this is real simple.

Jazz are down 0-2, gotta win 4


I checked and this is correct.

[bresilhac]

You know that is precisely what they did in Houston, right?

And Houston was supposed to be the better team.

Hardly a done deal. We need to pick up one of the next two.

Big difference. Houston is not San Antonio. San Antonio has the poise, veteran leadership and playoff road experience to get the job done in SLC. Now ask yourself. After the display you've seen by the Spurs in the first two games do you really believe Utah can win both games in SLC plus a game at AT&T? Bottomline is that the threadstarter is correct. The chances of Utah winning 4 of 5 against the Spurs are extremely unlikely. And not only because of probability but because San Antonio is simply the better team.

[SequSpur]

Math?

[BigBeezie]

My prediction: game 3 win for Spurs.

Utah is out of their league. I don't think we have even brought our 'A' game yet.

[easjer]

Big difference. Houston is not San Antonio. San Antonio has the poise, veteran leadership and playoff road experience to get the job done in SLC. Now ask yourself. After the display you've seen by the Spurs in the first two games do you really believe Utah can win both games in SLC plus a game at AT&T? Bottomline is that the threadstarter is correct. The chances of Utah winning 4 of 5 against the Spurs are extremely unlikely. And not only because of probability but because San Antonio is simply the better team.


I believe the Spurs will win the series. But damn fucking right I believe that Utah can win two at home. They've been unstoppable at home. And SA mailed in more than a couple quarters of the 2 they've played so far. They didn't play consistent or even very good defense in either game (it was good for periods, but bad for others). They let the offense slide. We allowed 20+ point leads down to single digits, twice. They didn't make great adjustments and they turned it over WAY too much.

And if the series gets tied - anything can happen.

Do I think Utah will win 4 of 5? No. Could they? Fuck yeah.

As I originally stated, Spurs need to pick up one of the next two. Pressure is off if they pick up 3. It's a crapshoot. I'd prefer them to win 3, but I'll settle for 4. Don't underestimate this team. We split the season series for a reason.

[efrem1]

The No Limit Army Commander will prep us before Game 3 Saturday!!