View Full Version : Competent Offensive Execution Win Championships.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 07:54 PM
The Cavs were 8th in the league in the 2006-07 regular season in average opponents' FG% and 24th in own FG%.
The Spurs? 4th in opponents' FG% and as for their own...2nd.
The Cavs may be above average in stopping their opponents but they suck the hard one at managing to turn their opportunities into points. Lest we forget that they will be facing the 4th best defense in the NBA (going by this stat).
This has been the little dirty secret about the Spurs of late...that they aren't so bad at converting on the offensive end.
TampaDude
06-04-2007, 07:57 PM
LeBron is awesome, but as a team, the Spurs are way better than the Cavs. No brag, just fact. Spurs in 5 (they always mail one in each series).
Mr.Bottomtooth
06-04-2007, 07:57 PM
:tu :tu :tu
Solid D
06-04-2007, 08:18 PM
In the playoffs, Cleveland is leading all teams in fewest points allowed and Opp. FG% and averages a full 4 more rebounds/game than San Antonio. They also defend the 3-point line as well as San Antonio does...actually better in the playoffs, but they ranked 1st and the Spurs 2nd during the regular season.
Sorry if that takes the edge off.
BigBeezie
06-04-2007, 08:18 PM
Spurs in 2... The Cavs will retire Bron's number after game 2. Shit, they already crowned the poor dumb bastard on Saturday...
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 08:28 PM
The Cavs faced the 17th, 20th, and 23rd best FG% teams in the NBA in the 1st 3 rounds.
The Spurs? 1st, 3rd, and 7th.
ClingingMars
06-04-2007, 08:30 PM
The Cavs faced the 17th, 20th, and 23rd best FG% teams in the NBA in the 1st 3 rounds.
The Spurs? 1st, 3rd, and 7th.
thats about the most telling stat I've seen leading up to this series.
-Mars
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 08:32 PM
My "edge" is back on.
FuzzyLumpkins
06-04-2007, 08:32 PM
If our jumpshooters are hitting their 3s we will win in 4.
Solid D
06-04-2007, 08:32 PM
The Cavs faced the 17th, 20th, and 23rd best FG% teams in the NBA in the 1st 3 rounds.
The Spurs? 1st, 3rd, and 7th.
That is a good point. I hope that makes a difference.
Borosai
06-04-2007, 08:44 PM
In the playoffs, Cleveland is leading all teams in fewest points allowed and Opp. FG% and averages a full 4 more rebounds/game than San Antonio. They also defend the 3-point line as well as San Antonio does...actually better in the playoffs, but they ranked 1st and the Spurs 2nd during the regular season.
Sorry if that takes the edge off.
They have a good D, no doubt about it, but look at who they've played.
td4mvp3
06-04-2007, 08:56 PM
interesting tidbit. i went back to the last lakers championship and, if i remember right, the top defense in the playoffs never won the title except when detroit did it over a lakers squad sans malone. other than that, hasn't happened. the cavs are now the top defensive team in the playoffs, based on opp. fg %.
Solid D
06-04-2007, 09:06 PM
They have a good D, no doubt about it, but look at who they've played.
Yes, I agree that the Cavs have played lesser competition and Marcus Bryant did add some stats that support it well. I think the premise of the thread is a bit off but I'm playing along. Naturally, I still believe that defense wins championships.
I also know what I'm seeing with my own eyes, and that is some excellent team defense by the Cavs...by anyone's standards.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:09 PM
How about 'offensive execution wins championships when both teams have above average defenses'?
Yes, I agree that the Cavs have played lesser competition and Marcus Bryant did add some stats that support it well. I think the premise of the thread is a bit off but I'm playing along. Naturally, I still believe that defense wins championships.
I also know what I'm seeing with my own eyes, and that is some excellent team defense by the Cavs...by anyone's standards.
Can't tell just how good that team defense is, until it faces an offense that is better than mediocre. It hasn't yet.
Mr. Body
06-04-2007, 09:12 PM
Remember Cleveland faced Washington in the first round, a team without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler that wasn't terribly good to begin with. That's gonna skew stats. Then they struggled with a New Jersey team the west would have demolished.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:13 PM
Can't tell just how good that team defense is, until it faces an offense that is better than mediocre. It hasn't yet.
It'll be a bit of a change from the 20th best shooting team in the NBA last round to the 2nd...
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:19 PM
Interestingly, the Spurs were 17th in FT% and the Cavs...29th.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:21 PM
About the only positive I see for the Cavs is that they were 2nd in rebounding while the Spurs were 17th. Of course, the Spurs had fewer opportunities to board on the offensive end and were 6th in rebounds allowed.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:44 PM
Rankings by Own FG% and Opponents' FG% of the final 8 teams.
San Antonio 2nd 4th
Cleveland 24th 8th
Phoenix 1st 14th
Detroit 20th 6th
Utah 3rd 11th
Chicago 16th 2nd
Golden State 11th 19th
New Jersey 17th 9th
Spurs are clearly the best balanced team by this measure.
Noticing ALL the East teams with pretty good opp. FG%....of course none of the East teams could shoot all that straight...
Spurs look dominant on that list., then Utah and Phoenix, ironically.
Spurs in 1.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 09:52 PM
Noticing ALL the East teams with pretty good opp. FG%....of course none of the East teams could shoot all that straight...
Spurs look dominant on that list., then Utah and Phoenix, ironically.
Spurs in 1.
All of the Eastern Conference teams in the final 8 had above average defenses and below average offenses. Now the Cavs will face the 2nd best executing defense of the remaining 8 (4th best overall in the league) and the best executing offense (2nd best overall). Chicago lost to Detroit in the ECSF, but both were rather close when it came to poor shooting offenses and very good defenses, just like Detroit and Cleveland in the ECF.
All of the Eastern Conference teams in the final 8 had above average defenses and below average offenses. Now the Cavs will face the 2nd best executing defense of the remaining 8 (4th best overall in the league) and the best executing offense (2nd best overall). Chicago lost to Detroit in the ECSF, but both were rather close when it came to poor shooting offenses and very good defenses, just like Detroit and Cleveland in the ECF.
Kind of a chicken and egg thing, isn't it. Are the defenses good causing low fg% in the East; or are the offenses weak, making the defensive stats look good?
Have to compare FG% E vs. W for an answer; although winning % might provide a clue.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 10:03 PM
I'm not sure that the difference in Conference membership would account for a differential in own FG% of that magnitude.
ducks
06-04-2007, 10:04 PM
why is this stat not own espn
BECAUSE JAMES IS AWESOME
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 10:12 PM
In the 2005-06 season the Mavs ranked 7th in own FG% and 10th in opponents' FG%.
Miami? 2nd and 8th.
In the 2005-06 season the Mavs ranked 7th in own FG% and 10th in opponents' FG%.
Miami? 2nd and 8th.
Good get.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 11:24 PM
Good get.
In the 2004-05 season the Spurs were 10th in own FG% and 3rd in FG% allowed. The Pistons? 17th and 5th.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 11:27 PM
In the 2002-03 season the Spurs were 4th in the NBA in own FG%. Lakers? 9th. Nets? 14th. Looking for FG% allowed rankings for that season.
Nikos
06-04-2007, 11:40 PM
Those are not nearly as meaningful as Offensive and Defensive Efficiency per 100 possesions. Check out Basketball-reference.com to see those stats.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 11:44 PM
Those rankings are rather good at sorting out the field and based on the last few Finals they've held true.
Marcus Bryant
06-04-2007, 11:54 PM
Also of note is that the Spurs ranked 24th in 2006-07 in FT attempts while the Cavs were 15th. The Spurs' offense is generally not dependent on the whistle.
Trainwreck2100
06-04-2007, 11:55 PM
Also of note is that the Spurs ranked 24th in 2006-07 in FT attempts while the Cavs were 15th. The Spurs' offense is generally not dependent on the whistle.
no shit, the Spurs offense is dettered by the whistle, and has been for years.
BeerIsGood!
06-05-2007, 12:02 AM
Like I said all along, if the Spurs show up and play on both ends of the court like they have thus far in the playoffs - they win. The Spurs are holding all of the chips, all of the cards except one... now they have to lay them down one by one to dominate this thing and win the title.
Marcus Bryant
06-05-2007, 12:06 AM
Spurs were also 1st in the league with the fewest fouls committed (playing D beginning with foot movement goes a long way) and 4th in the fewest turnovers committed this season, while the Cavs were 11th and 7th.
I cannot stand watching the Cav offense.
Other 4 players spread the floor and get out of the way. LBJ in the middle and let him create. Rinse, lather, repeat.
cherylsteele
06-05-2007, 03:24 AM
In the playoffs, Cleveland is leading all teams in fewest points allowed and Opp. FG% and averages a full 4 more rebounds/game than San Antonio. They also defend the 3-point line as well as San Antonio does...actually better in the playoffs, but they ranked 1st and the Spurs 2nd during the regular season.
Sorry if that takes the edge off.
Just because opp.FG% is lower doesn't always mean it is any better. It isn't the Cavs' fault that so many teams can't really shoot too well anyways. If some of their opponents could shoot better that FG% number would change. I have seen many playoff games this year the Cavs played where they got the benefit of a team not being able to water form a boat on Lake Erie.
FuzzyLumpkins
06-05-2007, 03:37 AM
In the playoffs, Cleveland is leading all teams in fewest points allowed and Opp. FG% and averages a full 4 more rebounds/game than San Antonio. They also defend the 3-point line as well as San Antonio does...actually better in the playoffs, but they ranked 1st and the Spurs 2nd during the regular season.
Sorry if that takes the edge off.
It helps a lot when you play a Washington team without Butler and Arenas. New Jersey wouldnt have made the playoffs in the West.
Basically those types of stats are meaningless without at least some common opponents.
whottt
06-05-2007, 03:50 AM
.
whottt
06-05-2007, 03:59 AM
Edit - somethings are best left unposted.
Marcus Bryant
06-05-2007, 07:23 AM
I cannot stand watching the Cav offense.
Other 4 players spread the floor and get out of the way. LBJ in the middle and let him create. Rinse, lather, repeat.
Likely a part of the reason the Cavs' FG% was so low this season. They do a good job of rebounding on the offensive end though. But they are facing a team in the Finals that does a great job on the defensive glass.
L.I.T
06-05-2007, 07:42 AM
Rebounding is a hot topic going into this series, as it has been each series.
Regular season: Cleveland was second at 43.5 boards per game (giving up 39.85). And were fourth in differential at +3.65 (behind Utah, New York and Dallas). Spurs were tenth in differential at +1.58 (40.65 and 39.11).
Playoffs: Cleveland is third at 43.87 (giving up 38.12) for the second best differential at 5.75. San Antonio is twelfth at 39.81 (giving up 40.62) for the eleventh best differential at -.081. However, breaking down the opponents sheds some light on Cleveland’s improvement, and San Antonio’s decline.
During the playoffs, Cleveland's average regular season rank of their opponents in rebounding differential was 19th, an average of -1.0. The best rebounding differential team they faced was New Jersey at 17th (Washington was 23rd, Detroit 18th). Cleveland's rebounding numbers were slightly inflated because Washington played without Arenas and Butler (Butler was second on the team at 7.4 per game. Arenas was 5th at 4.2). During that series Washington gave up 49 boards per game, while averaging 36.50, for a league-worst differential of -12.50.
San Antonio's numbers are pretty ugly. However, their opponents average regular season rebounding differential rank was 12th, an average of +1.42. They faced the top ranked team in Utah (Denver was 11th and Phoenix 24th). Except for Game 5 in the Phoenix series (when they were out-rebounded by 3), all the Spur's opponents have been at full-strength.
San Antonio by far has had the more difficult path to the Finals in terms of rebounding; as a matter of fact they have been outrebounded in each series. Cleveland has had the easiest path in terms of rebounding; as a matter of fact, they have outrebounded their opponents in each series.
Looking at the raw numbers paints a picture of an overwhelming advantage for the Cavs. But, when evaluating the quality of the opponents, the Cavs are behind the Spurs.
Bottom-line, the Spurs have faced a superior trio of rebounding teams and come out winners. The fact that the Cavs are a good rebounding team (but I would argue not as good in the playoffs) is a big concern. However, the Cavs may not be as good as people are making them out. San Antonio is at a rebounding disadvantage in this series, but not as big as it first appears.
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