duncan228
06-06-2007, 12:33 PM
SI.com Scout's take. I didn't highlight anything, I'll let you guys pick it apart! :lol
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/basketball/nba/specials/playoffs/2007/06/06/scouts.take.finals/index.html
Scout's Take
Duncan dilemma will vex Cavs; Spurs can slow LeBron
Posted: Wednesday June 6, 2007 11:04AM; Updated: Wednesday June 6, 2007 12:29PM
SI.com's Ian Thomsen asked an NBA advance scout to break down the NBA Finals matchup between the Spurs and Cavaliers.
"The only way the series goes six or more games is if players like Daniel Gibson play like they're auditioning for the All-Star team for next year. Not just Gibson, but all of those role players for Cleveland. LeBron James is going to win one game by himself, but he'll need help from those other guys to take the series past five games -- Sasha Pavlovic and Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones, they all have to play so well in roles to give Cleveland any kind of chance.
"I'm not one of those guys who is surprised that Cleveland made it this far. I compare the Cavaliers to the Miami Heat of last year -- everything had to fall together for Miami to reach the Finals, and now the same thing has happened for Cleveland.
"Of course, with Cleveland there was some luck involved too, including the fact that they drew the easiest ride to the conference finals of any team because Chicago lost the last game of the regular season. Had the Bulls won that game, there might have been an entirely different scenario in the Eastern playoffs this year.
"The big problem for Cleveland is going to be figuring out how to deal with Tim Duncan. In this case Detroit would have had a better shot by putting Rasheed Wallace on him in single coverage.
"Since the All-Star break I've noticed that Duncan has played with a chip on his shoulder even bigger than he had two years ago when the Spurs last won the championship. He just looks like he's not going to let them lose this year.
"Duncan has always been an intelligent player, but he's obviously more experienced than ever and he's seen every defensive look the league can imagine. The bottom line is that he really has that something extra to his game this year. Maybe he thinks he's close to the end, that he only has a year or two left to make a run at the championship. Whatever it is, he's playing as if he has the extra incentive this year.
"I guess Cleveland has to start with Drew Gooden guarding Duncan. Zydrunas Ilgauskas will have to guard him some too, and Anderson Varejao will spend a lot of time on him -- though that will hurt Cleveland at the other end, because the Cavs will need scoring and Varejao won't give them much of that. Varejao's thing is grabbing and ultimately drawing the charge, and while that may work from time to time, he's not going to shut down Duncan for the series. Nobody's going to do that.
"The Cavs are going to have to trap Duncan, and just hope that the other guys don't beat them. The one hope for Cleveland is that Mike Brown used to help coach Duncan as an assistant in San Antonio, so maybe he's got some tricks up his sleeve.
"Ultimately they'll have to constantly give Duncan different looks. Maybe they'll even put LeBron on him a little bit, thinking that they can go small on Duncan and get an advantage there. Basically they've got to try everything against the guy.
"Yet they can't lose sight of the other Spurs either. They're just so versatile, it's like Gregg Popovich can put out maybe five different lineups if he wants to. He can go with his starters, or with an all-defense lineup around guys like Fabricio Oberto, Jacque Vaughn and Bruce Bowen, that will stop you from scoring for several minutes. Or he can surround Duncan with shooters like Michael Finley and Brent Barry, who can also handle the point. They can go with a dribble-drive team with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. They've got Beno Udrih, who probably could start for a lot of teams but can't even sniff the floor with San Antonio. For a small-market team they've done an exceptionally good job at making the most of their budget, though it obviously helps that guys like Robert Horry and Finley are willing to go out of their way to play there.
"One of Cleveland's strengths is its rebounding, but the Spurs aren't delinquent in that area. Every guy they throw out there rebounds -- Francisco Elson, Horry (particularly at this time of year), obviously Duncan, Oberto, Bowen, Finley. Cleveland will get some offensive boards, but I doubt it will be the big advantage it was in previous rounds.
"Against LeBron the Spurs will use the guy I think should have been Defensive Player of the Year for at least four of the past six years -- Bowen. It won't just be Bowen's responsibility either. They'll give LeBron some different looks and provide Bowen with a lot of help, but then the Spurs always play solid team defense. They'll practically double-team LeBron by sending another guy whenever he puts the ball on the floor.
"Bowen is the best perimeter defender in the league because he does his work early. I'd say 95 percent of his job is done before the guy catches it and in the first three seconds that he has the ball. Bowen gets great position with his hands over the ball. He's so physical that everybody complains. I think he uses every single trick he can. There's a lot of talking about how he puts his foot underneath the shooters so they have to worry about spraining an ankle when landing, and a lot of people I respect think it's a dirty play. But I think he's just getting as close as he can to get a hand up -- and sometimes it happens that his foot winds up underneath the shooter and sometimes it doesn't. People will argue with me, but I don't think he's doing it on purpose. I just think he's being smart and trying to win with effort.
"Everything you're supposed to do defensively, he does. He's into the guy's body, he keeps his hand over the ball, he sends the guy where he wants to send him with the result that his opponent can't get comfortable, he can't catch it where he wants it. Bowen gets more blame for being dirty than he gets credit for his preparation -- he knows his opponent's strengths and weaknesses and he comes up with a plan of how to take the strengths away.
"All of that being said, LeBron is still going to play great in this series, though I'll bet you anything he'll get frustrated at some point and something will happen between him and Bowen. The goal will be forcing him to settle for his jump shot, and the Spurs can accomplish that by putting other guys in early help position so he sees you there, and that will motivate him not to penetrate right away if you're there before he begins his move. If he sees you where he wants to go, he'll be more likely to pass it or shoot it. I would think he'll wind up taking a number of bad shots.
"A series like this is going to help LeBron to get his game to the next level. All of this talk that Cleveland didn't even need LeBron in the clinching Eastern finals game because Gibson was scoring his 31 points -- that's a joke. What LeBron did in Game 5 by scoring the last 25 points for his team, that was a sign of what might become his consistent level of play over the next few years. Which is scary to everybody else in the league. Then you look at his passing ability: When people say he should take it to the basket strong even with three guys hanging on him, that's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
"As for this talk that LeBron will be able to use his superior strength against Bowen, I don't think it will help. After all, the Spurs put Bowen on Dirk Nowitzki, who has trouble using his size and strength to his advantage. I think what LeBron is going to learn in this series is that he has to become better in the low post, as opposed to a guy who settles for jumpers. Bowen will dissuade LeBron from going down low because LeBron doesn't feel comfortable doing that to begin with. Plus Bowen is a wiry-strong guy himself, he does a great job of keeping his center of gravity low, and again he does his work early.
"LeBron will go for 30 a couple of nights, and overall he'll average 25 a game, but it's going to be so much harder for him and he'll have to take more shots to get his points.
"There isn't one sleeper for Cleveland whom I expect to have a good series. They have all got to feel so confident in every shot they take, like Golden State felt in that first-round series against Dallas. If Marshall misses his first attempt, he has got to put it up the next time like he's made his last 15. All of those guys have got to make shots because they're going to get shots -- and they'll get those open looks because of the defense on LeBron.
"Overall it's going to be a low-scoring series and everybody will be complaining about the style of play again because it will end up being a lot of isolations and controlling the tempo from both teams.''
Scout's pick: "I'm picking the Spurs in five games. I wouldn't be shocked if they sweep it in four, and it will be a good series for Cleveland if it goes six.''
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/basketball/nba/specials/playoffs/2007/06/06/scouts.take.finals/index.html
Scout's Take
Duncan dilemma will vex Cavs; Spurs can slow LeBron
Posted: Wednesday June 6, 2007 11:04AM; Updated: Wednesday June 6, 2007 12:29PM
SI.com's Ian Thomsen asked an NBA advance scout to break down the NBA Finals matchup between the Spurs and Cavaliers.
"The only way the series goes six or more games is if players like Daniel Gibson play like they're auditioning for the All-Star team for next year. Not just Gibson, but all of those role players for Cleveland. LeBron James is going to win one game by himself, but he'll need help from those other guys to take the series past five games -- Sasha Pavlovic and Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones, they all have to play so well in roles to give Cleveland any kind of chance.
"I'm not one of those guys who is surprised that Cleveland made it this far. I compare the Cavaliers to the Miami Heat of last year -- everything had to fall together for Miami to reach the Finals, and now the same thing has happened for Cleveland.
"Of course, with Cleveland there was some luck involved too, including the fact that they drew the easiest ride to the conference finals of any team because Chicago lost the last game of the regular season. Had the Bulls won that game, there might have been an entirely different scenario in the Eastern playoffs this year.
"The big problem for Cleveland is going to be figuring out how to deal with Tim Duncan. In this case Detroit would have had a better shot by putting Rasheed Wallace on him in single coverage.
"Since the All-Star break I've noticed that Duncan has played with a chip on his shoulder even bigger than he had two years ago when the Spurs last won the championship. He just looks like he's not going to let them lose this year.
"Duncan has always been an intelligent player, but he's obviously more experienced than ever and he's seen every defensive look the league can imagine. The bottom line is that he really has that something extra to his game this year. Maybe he thinks he's close to the end, that he only has a year or two left to make a run at the championship. Whatever it is, he's playing as if he has the extra incentive this year.
"I guess Cleveland has to start with Drew Gooden guarding Duncan. Zydrunas Ilgauskas will have to guard him some too, and Anderson Varejao will spend a lot of time on him -- though that will hurt Cleveland at the other end, because the Cavs will need scoring and Varejao won't give them much of that. Varejao's thing is grabbing and ultimately drawing the charge, and while that may work from time to time, he's not going to shut down Duncan for the series. Nobody's going to do that.
"The Cavs are going to have to trap Duncan, and just hope that the other guys don't beat them. The one hope for Cleveland is that Mike Brown used to help coach Duncan as an assistant in San Antonio, so maybe he's got some tricks up his sleeve.
"Ultimately they'll have to constantly give Duncan different looks. Maybe they'll even put LeBron on him a little bit, thinking that they can go small on Duncan and get an advantage there. Basically they've got to try everything against the guy.
"Yet they can't lose sight of the other Spurs either. They're just so versatile, it's like Gregg Popovich can put out maybe five different lineups if he wants to. He can go with his starters, or with an all-defense lineup around guys like Fabricio Oberto, Jacque Vaughn and Bruce Bowen, that will stop you from scoring for several minutes. Or he can surround Duncan with shooters like Michael Finley and Brent Barry, who can also handle the point. They can go with a dribble-drive team with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. They've got Beno Udrih, who probably could start for a lot of teams but can't even sniff the floor with San Antonio. For a small-market team they've done an exceptionally good job at making the most of their budget, though it obviously helps that guys like Robert Horry and Finley are willing to go out of their way to play there.
"One of Cleveland's strengths is its rebounding, but the Spurs aren't delinquent in that area. Every guy they throw out there rebounds -- Francisco Elson, Horry (particularly at this time of year), obviously Duncan, Oberto, Bowen, Finley. Cleveland will get some offensive boards, but I doubt it will be the big advantage it was in previous rounds.
"Against LeBron the Spurs will use the guy I think should have been Defensive Player of the Year for at least four of the past six years -- Bowen. It won't just be Bowen's responsibility either. They'll give LeBron some different looks and provide Bowen with a lot of help, but then the Spurs always play solid team defense. They'll practically double-team LeBron by sending another guy whenever he puts the ball on the floor.
"Bowen is the best perimeter defender in the league because he does his work early. I'd say 95 percent of his job is done before the guy catches it and in the first three seconds that he has the ball. Bowen gets great position with his hands over the ball. He's so physical that everybody complains. I think he uses every single trick he can. There's a lot of talking about how he puts his foot underneath the shooters so they have to worry about spraining an ankle when landing, and a lot of people I respect think it's a dirty play. But I think he's just getting as close as he can to get a hand up -- and sometimes it happens that his foot winds up underneath the shooter and sometimes it doesn't. People will argue with me, but I don't think he's doing it on purpose. I just think he's being smart and trying to win with effort.
"Everything you're supposed to do defensively, he does. He's into the guy's body, he keeps his hand over the ball, he sends the guy where he wants to send him with the result that his opponent can't get comfortable, he can't catch it where he wants it. Bowen gets more blame for being dirty than he gets credit for his preparation -- he knows his opponent's strengths and weaknesses and he comes up with a plan of how to take the strengths away.
"All of that being said, LeBron is still going to play great in this series, though I'll bet you anything he'll get frustrated at some point and something will happen between him and Bowen. The goal will be forcing him to settle for his jump shot, and the Spurs can accomplish that by putting other guys in early help position so he sees you there, and that will motivate him not to penetrate right away if you're there before he begins his move. If he sees you where he wants to go, he'll be more likely to pass it or shoot it. I would think he'll wind up taking a number of bad shots.
"A series like this is going to help LeBron to get his game to the next level. All of this talk that Cleveland didn't even need LeBron in the clinching Eastern finals game because Gibson was scoring his 31 points -- that's a joke. What LeBron did in Game 5 by scoring the last 25 points for his team, that was a sign of what might become his consistent level of play over the next few years. Which is scary to everybody else in the league. Then you look at his passing ability: When people say he should take it to the basket strong even with three guys hanging on him, that's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
"As for this talk that LeBron will be able to use his superior strength against Bowen, I don't think it will help. After all, the Spurs put Bowen on Dirk Nowitzki, who has trouble using his size and strength to his advantage. I think what LeBron is going to learn in this series is that he has to become better in the low post, as opposed to a guy who settles for jumpers. Bowen will dissuade LeBron from going down low because LeBron doesn't feel comfortable doing that to begin with. Plus Bowen is a wiry-strong guy himself, he does a great job of keeping his center of gravity low, and again he does his work early.
"LeBron will go for 30 a couple of nights, and overall he'll average 25 a game, but it's going to be so much harder for him and he'll have to take more shots to get his points.
"There isn't one sleeper for Cleveland whom I expect to have a good series. They have all got to feel so confident in every shot they take, like Golden State felt in that first-round series against Dallas. If Marshall misses his first attempt, he has got to put it up the next time like he's made his last 15. All of those guys have got to make shots because they're going to get shots -- and they'll get those open looks because of the defense on LeBron.
"Overall it's going to be a low-scoring series and everybody will be complaining about the style of play again because it will end up being a lot of isolations and controlling the tempo from both teams.''
Scout's pick: "I'm picking the Spurs in five games. I wouldn't be shocked if they sweep it in four, and it will be a good series for Cleveland if it goes six.''