duncan228
06-07-2007, 03:34 PM
Didn't see this posted. Trying to play fair! This is the compliment to the "Too Seasoned..." thread with the 5 reasons the Spurs will win.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/kelly_dwyer/06/06/cavs.reasons/index.html
The case for the Cavs
What Cleveland has to do to throw a surprise party
In sport, on any level, passing something off as a certainty is little more than a futile exercise. The San Antonio Spurs, however, seem as sure a thing there is in the pro ranks. The team is mine and several others' choice to win the NBA title over the upstart Cleveland Cavaliers, and for good reason. San Antonio doesn't take plays off, rarely takes opponents lightly and is filled with heady players boasting championship-worthy talents.
The Spurs still have to win four out of seven, though, against a Cavs team that is as intriguing as it is dynamic. Once thought of as a defensive team that had to rely explicitly on the offensive talents of LeBron James to win, the Cavs, well, are still a defensive team that has to rely on the 22-year-old superstar. But there are emerging pockets of productivity from heretofore unheralded areas. Clutch shooting from rookie Daniel Gibson. Waves of offensive rebounding from the big men. Determined perimeter defense from the guards. And strong leadership from the grizzled veterans.
The Cavs aren't likely to win these NBA Finals, but the ability is there. Writing off anyone this late in the game makes little sense, so here are five ways the Cavs can pull off the upset:
1. LeBron's continued growth.
His brilliant performances in the Eastern Conference finals speak to a player who is finally coming into his own, finally realizing what wins big games (aggression) and what doesn't (the luck of a fadeaway jumper), and the results have been what you'd expect -- Cleveland's first Finals appearance.
What we're seeing in LeBron, as it has been since his NBA debut in Sacramento in 2003, is a player who is showing obvious growth from game to game. You saw it in Game 6 against the Pistons: James couldn't get a shot off to save his life and wasn't exactly racking up the assists, but he was penetrating the defense and initiating the sort of ball movement that can put even the best of defenses (like, say, Detroit's or San Antonio's) on its heels.
2. Defense that doesn't let up.
Even if the shots aren't falling, and they usually aren't, the Cavs know how to play lockdown defense. During the regular season, the Cavs were fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency (a measure of points allowed per every 100 possessions, in order to account for disparities in pace), and they've only gotten better in the playoffs. Yes, taking on an injured Wizards club and a Pistons team that continually broke plays helped, but the Cavs are the runaway leader in postseason defensive efficiency, giving up just under 96 points per 100 possessions.
The Cavs defend guards exceedingly well, limit second-chance opportunities and have the depth to throw fresh defenders at San Antonio's array of sound shooters. And though Cleveland has taken its rightful lumps for not putting points on the board, it does boast another element that could work against San Antonio's stout defense ...
3. Mid-range shooting.
For years, defending the mid-range shot has been the Spurs' Achilles' heel. Coach Gregg Popovich sees this limited weakness as a necessary evil in order to sustain his team's almost-legendary ability to guard the three-point line and, to a lesser extent, the front of the rim. Because the NBA is so devoid of players who like to do their work from the mid-range area, the Spurs are always able to get away with it -- San Antonio was second in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, behind only Chicago.
With Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Drew Gooden, the Cavs have two big men who love nothing more than to pull up from 16 or 17 feet. And though Cleveland's often-inaccurate three-point shooters (Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones, Larry Hughes and Sasha Pavlovic) may not like having to step in from 25 feet, working an up-fake and heading toward the open spaces on the perimeter could be enough to pull out a road victory.
4. Potential free-throw advantage.
This is where things get tricky. The Cavs shot a combined 64 free throws to San Antonio's 54 during their two-game regular-season sweep, a difference that could hardly be called a big advantage. Still, the Cavs haven't played San Antonio in five months, and LeBron has accrued heaps of playoff knowledge since then. Could he force his way to a Dwyane Wade-level stay at the line in these Finals?
That's a tough task, as Wade shot 99 freebies in six games during last year's six-game series victory against the Mavericks. And yet, the prevailing perception about San Antonio, that this is a borderline-dirty team that gets all the calls, could aid the Cavs.
The Spurs have long been a brilliant defensive team with an innate ability to dominate without sending the other team to the line. We're not saying that the NBA will hand down a proclamation insisting things be evened out -- "fix" musings are about as insipid as "insight" gets, and it's worth noting that the referees' union and league office were at odds even before the Joey Crawford incident -- but the refs on their own might want to straighten things out and do away with the idea that they handed San Antonio a Western Conference title.
They didn't, and it wasn't even close, but cable TV and 24-hour bloviating have a way of getting to even the most secure of professionals. If LeBron stays aggressive and gets the Spurs in the penalty early in quarters, who knows what could happen?
5. Did we mention LeBron?
Tim Duncan is the best player in this series. With Duncan's ability to dominate defensively, let's face it, LeBron is still a few steps behind the Big Fundamental. But James is the most explosive player in this series. A 50-point night isn't out of the question even against San Antonio's defense, and his youth and newfound willingness to attack incessantly suggest an element of production that just can't be anticipated.
Anything could happen with LeBron. He could nail his first few jumpers, decide that his perimeter game is "on" and spend the rest of the game spinning out 22-foot fadeaways. Or he could remind us of Julius Erving in the 1976 ABA Finals, doing significant damage even against the premier perimeter defender of his time (back then, Bobby Jones; right now, Bruce Bowen).
With James starting to figure out things, calling the Spurs anything approaching a sure thing seems preposterous. The Cavs are a few bad decisions away from being swept. But there is also a solid chance that the team is a few inspired moves away from its first title. As always, it's LeBron's call.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/kelly_dwyer/06/06/cavs.reasons/index.html
The case for the Cavs
What Cleveland has to do to throw a surprise party
In sport, on any level, passing something off as a certainty is little more than a futile exercise. The San Antonio Spurs, however, seem as sure a thing there is in the pro ranks. The team is mine and several others' choice to win the NBA title over the upstart Cleveland Cavaliers, and for good reason. San Antonio doesn't take plays off, rarely takes opponents lightly and is filled with heady players boasting championship-worthy talents.
The Spurs still have to win four out of seven, though, against a Cavs team that is as intriguing as it is dynamic. Once thought of as a defensive team that had to rely explicitly on the offensive talents of LeBron James to win, the Cavs, well, are still a defensive team that has to rely on the 22-year-old superstar. But there are emerging pockets of productivity from heretofore unheralded areas. Clutch shooting from rookie Daniel Gibson. Waves of offensive rebounding from the big men. Determined perimeter defense from the guards. And strong leadership from the grizzled veterans.
The Cavs aren't likely to win these NBA Finals, but the ability is there. Writing off anyone this late in the game makes little sense, so here are five ways the Cavs can pull off the upset:
1. LeBron's continued growth.
His brilliant performances in the Eastern Conference finals speak to a player who is finally coming into his own, finally realizing what wins big games (aggression) and what doesn't (the luck of a fadeaway jumper), and the results have been what you'd expect -- Cleveland's first Finals appearance.
What we're seeing in LeBron, as it has been since his NBA debut in Sacramento in 2003, is a player who is showing obvious growth from game to game. You saw it in Game 6 against the Pistons: James couldn't get a shot off to save his life and wasn't exactly racking up the assists, but he was penetrating the defense and initiating the sort of ball movement that can put even the best of defenses (like, say, Detroit's or San Antonio's) on its heels.
2. Defense that doesn't let up.
Even if the shots aren't falling, and they usually aren't, the Cavs know how to play lockdown defense. During the regular season, the Cavs were fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency (a measure of points allowed per every 100 possessions, in order to account for disparities in pace), and they've only gotten better in the playoffs. Yes, taking on an injured Wizards club and a Pistons team that continually broke plays helped, but the Cavs are the runaway leader in postseason defensive efficiency, giving up just under 96 points per 100 possessions.
The Cavs defend guards exceedingly well, limit second-chance opportunities and have the depth to throw fresh defenders at San Antonio's array of sound shooters. And though Cleveland has taken its rightful lumps for not putting points on the board, it does boast another element that could work against San Antonio's stout defense ...
3. Mid-range shooting.
For years, defending the mid-range shot has been the Spurs' Achilles' heel. Coach Gregg Popovich sees this limited weakness as a necessary evil in order to sustain his team's almost-legendary ability to guard the three-point line and, to a lesser extent, the front of the rim. Because the NBA is so devoid of players who like to do their work from the mid-range area, the Spurs are always able to get away with it -- San Antonio was second in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, behind only Chicago.
With Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Drew Gooden, the Cavs have two big men who love nothing more than to pull up from 16 or 17 feet. And though Cleveland's often-inaccurate three-point shooters (Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones, Larry Hughes and Sasha Pavlovic) may not like having to step in from 25 feet, working an up-fake and heading toward the open spaces on the perimeter could be enough to pull out a road victory.
4. Potential free-throw advantage.
This is where things get tricky. The Cavs shot a combined 64 free throws to San Antonio's 54 during their two-game regular-season sweep, a difference that could hardly be called a big advantage. Still, the Cavs haven't played San Antonio in five months, and LeBron has accrued heaps of playoff knowledge since then. Could he force his way to a Dwyane Wade-level stay at the line in these Finals?
That's a tough task, as Wade shot 99 freebies in six games during last year's six-game series victory against the Mavericks. And yet, the prevailing perception about San Antonio, that this is a borderline-dirty team that gets all the calls, could aid the Cavs.
The Spurs have long been a brilliant defensive team with an innate ability to dominate without sending the other team to the line. We're not saying that the NBA will hand down a proclamation insisting things be evened out -- "fix" musings are about as insipid as "insight" gets, and it's worth noting that the referees' union and league office were at odds even before the Joey Crawford incident -- but the refs on their own might want to straighten things out and do away with the idea that they handed San Antonio a Western Conference title.
They didn't, and it wasn't even close, but cable TV and 24-hour bloviating have a way of getting to even the most secure of professionals. If LeBron stays aggressive and gets the Spurs in the penalty early in quarters, who knows what could happen?
5. Did we mention LeBron?
Tim Duncan is the best player in this series. With Duncan's ability to dominate defensively, let's face it, LeBron is still a few steps behind the Big Fundamental. But James is the most explosive player in this series. A 50-point night isn't out of the question even against San Antonio's defense, and his youth and newfound willingness to attack incessantly suggest an element of production that just can't be anticipated.
Anything could happen with LeBron. He could nail his first few jumpers, decide that his perimeter game is "on" and spend the rest of the game spinning out 22-foot fadeaways. Or he could remind us of Julius Erving in the 1976 ABA Finals, doing significant damage even against the premier perimeter defender of his time (back then, Bobby Jones; right now, Bruce Bowen).
With James starting to figure out things, calling the Spurs anything approaching a sure thing seems preposterous. The Cavs are a few bad decisions away from being swept. But there is also a solid chance that the team is a few inspired moves away from its first title. As always, it's LeBron's call.