2-0: Inside the Numbers

[timvp]

I'll admit, it's tough to talk down Spurs fans who are ready to gas up the riverboats, but it's still only 2-0. The Spurs need two more wins to secure the championship and anything can happen between now and two wins.

The Cavs haven't looked like much of a challenge in the first two games. The Spurs could have won both games by huge margins if they didn't get bored. That said, the Cavs are a young team and young teams play better at home.

They'll be going to Cleveland ... which is as championship hungry of a town as there is. A championship trophy would taste better to that city than a whataburger would taste to a starving San Antonian. They want it and their fans will be crazy.

I don't think the Cavs are as bad as some make them out to be. Here are some numbers that should keep a Spurs fan from pre-ordering their championship t-shirt ... at least as long as it takes to read the rest of this post.

Cavs over Spurs 121-88
That's the cumulative score of the four fourth quarters the Spurs and Cavs have played this season. The Cavs have outscored the Spurs in each of the fourth quarters. Sure, the last two had to do with the Spurs stepping off the gas. However, the Cavs won the first two contests, so perhaps it's more than that.

8 - Matt Bonner
That's the most points a Spur outside of the Big Three has scored against the Cavs this season. That's truly amazing after four games. The Big Three is having its way, but the Cavs have done a nice job of shutting down everyone else. Because the Spurs are unable to get any help from outside the Big Three, a slump by a couple members of the Big Three could turn this series around in a heartbeat.

11-57 for 19.3%
That's the combined shooting from Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Brent Barry against the Cavs this season. That's atrocious and can hardly be considered a fluke because it held true from the second game of the season all the way to the present.

20 points
That was the margin of victory for the Spurs in the first two games of this series.

24 points
That was the margin of victory for the Mavs in their first two games of the 2006 NBA Finals.

36 points
That was the margin of victory in the Spurs first two games against Detroit in 2005.

48 points
That was the margin of defeat for the Spurs in the next two games against Detroit in 2005.

:lmao X 1000
That's how funny it was when the Mavs choked against the Heat.

6-13
That's the Spurs record since the 1999 championship when going out on the road after winning the first two games at home. Winning the first two games at home hasn't translated to winning the next two games on the road outside of Memphis in 2004.

8-1
That's the Eastern Conference's record over the last three seasons in their part of the 2-3-2 split. The lone win? Robert Horry's miraculous performance in the 4th quarter and overtime to squeak out a win for the Spurs.

~2
That's a generous guestimate of how many Spurs fans are going to read this and put their brooms back into the closet.

[Marcus Bryant]

2-0

Spurs' record in NBA Finals after winning the 1st two games at home.

Anyways, good points. We'll see what happens when the Spurs don't coast at the start of the 4th in Game 3.

[Spurs Dynasty 21]

these stats mean nothing

[Jimcs50]

14- the number of times Chicken Little, Mr glass is half empty, Mr logical Timvp has tried to get us off our cloud with his downer threads in the last 5 years.

:)

[duncan228]

Sobering numbers. After what happened in '05 I would never count out the other team even with as lost as Cleveland has looked.

One of our big three having a bad game could spell disaster. That's even more clear with your breakdown showing how little scoring we're getting from anyone else.

The Cavs will play better at home, anyone who doesn't think so is blinded by their homer glasses. Their youth will serve them at home and we all know LeBron is going to explode at some point.

I am glad we protected home court. That's all we've done so far. Had we split these two I would be much more nervous. If we can get one in Cleveland I'm confident the series is ours.

I never took my broom out. I've said Spurs in 6 right along. I believe in Tim Duncan. His play on both ends has been incredible. He will keep this team on an even keel so the team doesn't get as cocky as the fans. Everything I've heard the players and Pop say in the interviews comforts me. They know this isn't over. They remember '05. They don't want to let that happen again. I believe they will stay focused, one game, 48 minutes at a time.

And it was funny when the Mavs choked against the Heat. Let's hope we all learned something from it. It sounds like the team has and that's who will win this.

[Punkkboy44]

No doubt Spurs need Finley to score some..I'd run the first 3 plays of game 3 for Mike..both he and Barry look hesitant and lack confidence on their shots..shoot it freely guys!!!

[DDS4]

Big difference between the Mavs 2-0 lead and our 2-0 lead.

Miami was an experienced, veteran team catching a neophyte team with it's first ever Finals appearance.

Cleveland is the neophyte this time, and they're down 0-2 to 3-time champions.

[Mark in Austin]

8 - Matt Bonner
That's the most points a Spur outside of the Big Three has scored against the Cavs this season. That's truly amazing after four games. The Big Three is having its way, but the Cavs have done a nice job of shutting down everyone else. Because the Spurs are unable to get any help from outside the Big Three, a slump by a couple members of the Big Three could turn this series around in a heartbeat.


Holy crap. That's a hell of a stat.

[td4mvp3]

what's interesting, though, is that cleveland has scored more than 92 points only twice since the first round. a modicum of defense, as evidenced by the nets, consistently has held the cavs below their game 2 total.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I swear to god this 2-3-2 format is such fucking bull shit


That 8-1 stat is what scares me the most.


The shooting stat does not scare me, not at all, because the spurs have been getting clean open looks for games 1 and 2. The Cavs are not making us miss those shots. Finley and Barry are just clanking open looks.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

6-13
That's the Spurs record since the 1999 championship when going out on the road after winning the first two games at home. Winning the first two games at home hasn't translated to winning the next two games on the road outside of Memphis in 2004.

That's the big one. This team doesn't know how to play up 2-0. I'm expecting a lazy ass performance tomorrow night, but hope they prove me wrong.

[Budkin]

Great post timvp... I'm sure Pop has reminded the guys of what has gone down in these middle three games over the past few years. As long as we play with intensity and execute for 48 minutes, we will win at least two of these next 3. Cleveland is not good enough to hang when we are at our best.

[Budkin]

That's the big one. This team doesn't know how to play up 2-0. I'm expecting a lazy ass performance tomorrow night, but hope they prove me wrong.

Totally... I can see the blank stares and mopey looks from Duncan and Parker already. Please guys, for once don't make it painful for us. Come on Spurs!!!

[SequSpur]

bandwagoners.................

[T Park]

might as well order up the cavalier world championship gear....

[T Park]

11-57 for 19.3%
That's the combined shooting from Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Brent Barry against the Cavs this season. That's atrocious and can hardly be considered a fluke because it held true from the second game of the season all the way to the present

If these were three players on the Cavs people would say "They are due"

Since its the Spurs, its "Its not a fluke"

[timvp]

The same Spurs fans who were overconfident up 2-0 in 2004 and 2005 are overconfident now.

Classic.

[T Park]

so we should sit around and be scared to death and stress the fuck out over the whole game?

[timvp]

Appropriate Fear.

[Bruno]

It sucks. Spurs are only 2-0 after 2 games instead of 3-0 or 4-0.

Spurs fans shouldn't be planing the parade but they shouldn't be worried (for the moment).
Bottomline is that Spurs have had 2 nice easy wins in the first 2 games. Some random stats aren't enough to worry me.

[T Park]

I think theres a difference between appropriate fear and

"Don't get happy, we can choke this at any moment"


I prefer to watch sports in a good mood or temprement, not worried if they lose that the series is spiraling out of control :lol


I understand appropriate fear.

I just think that people that want appropriate fear, are digging and scraping for reasons to have that fear.

[T Park]

Spurs fans shouldn't be planing the parade but they shouldn't be worried (for the moment).
Bottomline is that Spurs have had 2 nice easy wins in the first 2 games. Some random stats aren't enough to worry me.

exactly

dont be sizing up the champ t shirts yet, but dont be scared to death that you'll be doing a lebron on your damn fingernails all night.

[TDMVPDPOY]

mike brown/danny ferry brings heads of kings (lebronze) to my place

disrepect me, my women, me country.....

outrageous!!!!


THIS IS SPUR-TAAAAAA

[dimsah]

Why does everyone dismiss the fact that the 2005 Spurs were not a good road team?
They finished the year with a 21-20 record on the road.

The 2005 Pistons were a much better opponent than the 2007 Cavs and the Spurs were still able to get 1 game in Detroit.
The 2007 Spurs are a much better road team than the 2005 Spurs. It's not difficult to imagine this series only going 5 games.

[samikeyp]

Appropriate Fear.

Agreed. Although with me, its overblown paranoid fear. :lol

I can't relax about the series until its over! :)

[Cry Havoc]

Let the players have the appropriate fear.

I'll just sit back and relax, since I have little bearing on the game anyway.

[sa_butta]

Im just cautiously optimistic. While I dislike our chances going to Cleveland after winning 2, I am sure of what this team is capable of. The Spurs are playing very well as a team at at high level. Really all we need is for some of our role players to knock down some (Finley and Barry) open shots and keep moving the ball on offense. Defensively just keep doing what we have been doing.

[TampaDude]

Spurs in 5. Book it! :toast

[sa_butta]

How come they only get a one day layoff after traveling on the road?? Im not complaining because it just means less time I have to wait for a game. Just curious why not two days rest??

[degenerate_gambler]

Appropriate Fear.



for a fan?

c'mon bro...that's on the players not us.

[Spurs Brazil]

Great post

If we play with the 'appropriate fear' tonight we'll win

[michaelwcho]

Great post

If we play with the 'appropriate fear' tonight we'll win

Medo logical?

[timvp]

~2
That's a generous guestimate of how many Spurs fans are going to read this and put their brooms back into the closet.
Bad guess.

[thousandth]

For timvp! :toast Great post. :clap

But, Matt Bonner??????? C´mon. not Bonner no. :nope




:lol

[BlackFlagg]

exactly

dont be sizing up the champ t shirts yet, but dont be scared to death that you'll be doing a lebron on your damn fingernails all night.

I think that's the hardest place to be: in limbo. It's easier to choose a frame of mind rather than just wait and see. I don't give those stats too much credence -- remember, the Cavs fans keep reminding us ad nauseam how they beat us in the regular season -- but it's a good thing to keep in mind.

[kris]

As much as I know this series is over and don't subscribe to Timvp's theory that what the fans think actually affects the game somehow - although some can be annoying - there is merit here.

Despite the Pistons eeking by the Cavs, they still won the first two games, and everybody was already talking about how boring a Spurs vs. Pistons finals. Cavs won 4 in a row.

Second, the Spurs haven't won at Cleveland yet. 2-0 is nice, but its what you're supposed to do with HCA.

The Dallas/Miami example is pretty applicable here. The only difference is Miami had a lot more weapons than Cleveland.

I'll stick with Spurs in 5, but the Cavs could easily win tonight and then there would be a lot of scurrying going around.

[kris]

8 - Matt Bonner
That's the most points a Spur outside of the Big Three has scored against the Cavs this season. That's truly amazing after four games. The Big Three is having its way, but the Cavs have done a nice job of shutting down everyone else. Because the Spurs are unable to get any help from outside the Big Three, a slump by a couple members of the Big Three could turn this series around in a heartbeat.


I don't think I read this right, but I'm reading it as nobody has scored more than 8 outside of Manu, Tony, and Tim in 2 regular season games and 2 playoff games against the Cavs.

I just looked at the box scores of Games 1 and 2 and Elson has 5 and 6, (5+6) = 11.

I must be missing something.

[Testing]

^I think he means in a single game out of the 4....every game the 4th leading scorer behind the Big 3 had scored less than 8 points. Which is a big concern....

[Jimcs50]

1998-99 San Antonio Spurs 4-1 New York Knicks

2002-03 San Antonio Spurs 4-2 New Jersey Nets

2004-05 San Antonio Spurs 4-3 Detroit Pistons


Spurs have given up 1, 2 and 3 wins for their opponents in the Finals.

They will hit for the cycle this year and win 4-0

:smokin

[degenerate_gambler]

..but the Cavs could easily win tonight and then there would be a lot of scurrying going around.


if cleveland can win games 3 & 4, then i may think about scurrying.


but that's not gonna happen.

[MadDog73]

1998-99 San Antonio Spurs 4-1 New York Knicks

2002-03 San Antonio Spurs 4-2 New Jersey Nets

2004-05 San Antonio Spurs 4-3 Detroit Pistons



Eh... I don't like the trend of those numbers! :lol

OK, I would not be surprised if the Cavs win tonight. They will play their best game of the series, and the Spurs are due for an off-night.

That said: Robert Horry is in the mode. He can smell that 7th ring. I don't know if he'll go off tonight, in game 4, or game 5, but he will win a game for us.

Believe.

[easjer]

Well, the problem with picking Spurs in 5, as I have done, is that they'll have to lose or forfeit a game. Since I don't see them forfeiting, I'm guessing they lose one of the next 2. SFIE and I are disagreed on which that will be; I think tonight is the night, but SFIE think the Spurs can/will pull it out. He thinks that other factors will ensure a game 4 loss (whether that is complacency, expectation, desperation or officiating I leave to the audience to decide).

Definitely think the Spurs will win 1 and lose 1 of the next 2.

[CosmicCowboy]

I will still say that Spurs are gonna sweep. I didn't jump on the bandwagon after 2 wins, I put my vbookie on it before the series started.

This '07 team has the killer instinct. They are not gonna let this one slip away.

That 4th quarter "scare" in game 2 couldn't have been choreographed more perfectly.

Spurs will have appropriate fear and blow them out again from the opening tipoff.

[smeagol]

Who cares if America ain't watching . . .

[Obstructed_View]

Appropriate Fear.
For fans? What appropriate fear should the fans have? That the Spurs might decide not to show up? So much for "believe". :rolleyes

[Obstructed_View]

Bad guess.
Good estimate of the value of your stats, though.

[degenerate_gambler]

For fans? What appropriate fear should the fans have?


Maybe it means I need to have a healthy respect for that cap I twist off that bottle of Shiner tonite while intently watching the game and not just casually twist and toss it.

[MadDog73]

Maybe it means I need to have a healthy respect for that cap I twist off that bottle of Shiner tonite while intently watching the game and not just casually twist and toss it.


:lol

:toast

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice work Timvp. :tu

Interesting how the Spurs fans who walk around with the "top of the world" mentality when the team is up 2-0 are usually the first ones jumping off buildings when the team loses.

Expect a lot of "the world is ending" threads should the Spurs lose game 3...Spursdynasty would probably slit his wrists should the Spurs drop games 3 AND 4.

[Obstructed_View]

Spursdynasty would probably slit his wrists should the Spurs drop games 3 AND 4.
Where can I buy a Cavs jersey?

[FromWayDowntown]

I'll put myself in the appropriate fear camp, if only because I have some nonsensical and irrational belief in sports karma and some concern that Spurs fans are due a heavy dose of the bad side of sports karma for a year-long celebration of the Mavs' demise last year.

I can convince myself that there are plenty of reasons to believe that these Finals are different than the last 3 and that the trend against a home team owning the middle 3 games is more an anomaly than a predictor. With that said, I'm fully expecting the usual Spurs Game 3, on the road, up 2-0 performance tonight. As much as I want to believe that the other guys can step up when needed, I'm still frightened a bit by the notion that so much of the Spurs' scoring in this series has come from the Big 3. I firmly believe that getting road wins in the Finals requires contributions across-the-board and I'm not sure the Spurs can reasonably expect that from Finley, Barry, or Franricio Elberto. Without that, tonight could be a struggle as a fired-up Cavs team will play before a Warriors-esque crowd.

[timvp]

For fans? What appropriate fear should the fans have? That the Spurs might decide not to show up?

Okay, so fans have no impact on sports. Can't really argue with you.


So much for "believe". :rolleyes

:lol

Oh wait, you contradict yourself within your own paragraph. If you have no effect on the outcome, why would you waste time Believing?

[timvp]

I could have guessed exactly who was going to respond and exactly what they were going to say. As EHJ said, the first fans to jump off the bandwagon are the fans who get emotional if you try to interrupt their overconfident circle jerk.

Props to the couple Spurs fans who have recognized that the Cavs have done a good job shutting down the Spurs supporting cast all season. I know it pains most Spurs fans to give an opposing team their due. If anyone points out a stat that doesn't glorify the Spurs, it's considered a fluke stat or a statistical anomaly.

And for the record, I never said I didn't think the Spurs would win this series or even this game. I'm pretty damn confident the Spurs can win this series as long as they stay healthy and keep playing anywhere as close to as well as they are playing now. Tonight, if the Spurs play as they did in Games 1 and 2, they should be right there at the end with a very good chance to win.

I apologize for interrupting the circle jerk. You can ignore this thread and go post in any other thread on the forum that has the Spurs sweeping without any doubts whatsoever. Yeah, the Cavs suck, the Spurs supporting cast is just in a flukish funk and the Spurs might as well have held their riverwalk parade before they left because this series was over.

My bad. Continue :tu

[Obstructed_View]

Oh wait, you contradict yourself within your own paragraph. If you have no effect on the outcome, why would you waste time Believing?
You missed the point, sweetheart. I don't waste time "believing", you do. But then you belittle people for being confident that the Spurs are going to play well, win the series, or GOD FORBID, sweep. You are the hypocrite here, not me.