flipcritic
06-15-2007, 08:29 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/ian_thomsen/06/15/spurs.next/index.html
No signs of stopping
Spurs are set up to make another title run next season
Gregg Popovich is going to laugh about this one: His San Antonio Spurs will enter next season as favorites to win their fifth title in 10 years.
It's funny because this time last season the standard assumption was that his Spurs were too old, having lost their second-round series to the younger Dallas Mavericks. With several contributors on the wrong side of 30 and the spry Phoenix Suns also in contention, Popovich heard time and again that his team's window had closed.
This is what Popovich was telling me in January: "I look back at last year and people say, 'You know, you didn't get by Dallas.' Well, if not for one ill-advised foul [by Manu Ginobili at the end of Game 7, we do get beyond Dallas. And if we do, then people wouldn't speak about us being old. They would say, 'Dallas still couldn't get over the hump against that experienced, executing bunch of Spurs.' But since that foul in the seventh game, you're old.
"So I try not to put us in a category. I think that we've got to grind it out like we usually do, play the way we play. I think being healthy at the end of the year, we'll be able to play with anybody.''
What are their chances of doing it again? This time next year Tim Duncan will be 32, Ginobili will be 30 and Finals MVP Tony Parker will be 26. Parker will be approaching his peak, and Ginobili looked as good as ever this season. As for Duncan, his four years in college may help extend his career. Though he has extended nine of his 10 NBA years by a postseason month or two, Duncan has played a total of 883 games. That's still 91 fewer than Kevin Garnett -- who is the same age -- has built up during his 12-year career.
Duncan also saves mileage thanks to his style: He's an SUV with a hybrid engine.
"He hasn't been blessed with great quickness, but he does have agility and mobility, he runs really well and he runs really efficiently,'' Popovich said. "And more importantly, he plays with an economy or an efficiency of movement. He knows when to exert energy and when not to, when to move and when not to move. Over a game and a month and a season and a decade, it adds up when you know when you need to put it on and take it off -- and he's really smart about that.''
No coach is better at pacing his players over the regular season and peaking them for the playoffs than Popovich. So long as Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are healthy, they should remain at the top of the contenders list next season.
A more delicate issue will concern the futures of premier defender Bruce Bowen, who is 36, starting guard Michael Finley (33) and reserves Robert Horry (37) and Brent Barry (35). The Spurs have long talked about getting younger: Two years ago they almost dealt Barry for young guard J.R. Smith, and there were rumors of more trades approaching the February deadline this season. The team coalesced and improved after it became clear that Popovich wasn't going to make any trades this year.
But next season, the Spurs may have to undertake a long-term strategy to eventually replace their older players. The most important of them is Bowen. Arguably the MVP of the playoffs for his defensive work against Steve Nash and LeBron James, Bowen will be entering the final year of his contract at a salary of $4.1 million. Will the Spurs consider a two-year extension that will keep him on the books until he's 39? If that investment makes Bowen feel appreciated and helps the Spurs win another championship, it will be well worth it.
It's not inconceivable that Duncan would also seek a two-year extension, though that could mean paying him close to $25 million when he's 36 in 2011-12. He can opt out next summer as well as the summer thereafter, though that seems unlikely.
Horry, who has won an astounding seven championships with three teams, wants to fulfill the final year of his contract at $3.6 million. Barry could be moved with one year remaining at $5.5 million, and Finley could opt out of his final year at $3.1 million, though at the moment that appears unlikely based on his emotional reaction to winning his first championship. Center Fabricio Oberto, 32, can opt out of his remaining year worth $2.5 million.
The Spurs will try to re-sign forward Matt Bonner, 27, and work him into the frontcourt to eventually take over for Horry. There also will be the annual speculation about another forward, 2002 second-round pick Luis Scola of Argentina, coming over from his club in Spain. Center Jackie Butler remains a long-term project, as does 2005 first-round pick Ian Mahinmi, who had a promising year in France. Because Mahinmi's club, Pau-Orthez, will not qualify for the Euroleague next season, the Spurs may bring the 20-year-old forward to the NBA next season and potentially install him in the D-League franchise in Austin. The Spurs are considering whether to buy into that franchise to create a true minor-league relationship. In any case, Mahinmi is years away from contributing at a championship level.
Whether or not the Spurs try to blend more youth into their complementary positions, it's hard to see who might supplant them next year. All of the challengers must address a weakness. The Mavericks need to pair Dirk Nowitzki with a second star, either through the continuing development of Josh Howard or by trade. The Suns must find a way to keep Shawn Marion and Amaré Stoudemire while getting a lot more from Stoudemire defensively. The Jazz need a shooting guard and the Rockets are facing a major transition in style. In the East, the Cavaliers, Pistons and other Finals contenders all seem years away from rivaling San Antonio.
The real question for the Spurs will be whether they can find the energy to make the effort that saw them through the second half of this season and the two months of the playoffs. But their opponents would be making a big mistake by anticipating a letdown in San Antonio.
No signs of stopping
Spurs are set up to make another title run next season
Gregg Popovich is going to laugh about this one: His San Antonio Spurs will enter next season as favorites to win their fifth title in 10 years.
It's funny because this time last season the standard assumption was that his Spurs were too old, having lost their second-round series to the younger Dallas Mavericks. With several contributors on the wrong side of 30 and the spry Phoenix Suns also in contention, Popovich heard time and again that his team's window had closed.
This is what Popovich was telling me in January: "I look back at last year and people say, 'You know, you didn't get by Dallas.' Well, if not for one ill-advised foul [by Manu Ginobili at the end of Game 7, we do get beyond Dallas. And if we do, then people wouldn't speak about us being old. They would say, 'Dallas still couldn't get over the hump against that experienced, executing bunch of Spurs.' But since that foul in the seventh game, you're old.
"So I try not to put us in a category. I think that we've got to grind it out like we usually do, play the way we play. I think being healthy at the end of the year, we'll be able to play with anybody.''
What are their chances of doing it again? This time next year Tim Duncan will be 32, Ginobili will be 30 and Finals MVP Tony Parker will be 26. Parker will be approaching his peak, and Ginobili looked as good as ever this season. As for Duncan, his four years in college may help extend his career. Though he has extended nine of his 10 NBA years by a postseason month or two, Duncan has played a total of 883 games. That's still 91 fewer than Kevin Garnett -- who is the same age -- has built up during his 12-year career.
Duncan also saves mileage thanks to his style: He's an SUV with a hybrid engine.
"He hasn't been blessed with great quickness, but he does have agility and mobility, he runs really well and he runs really efficiently,'' Popovich said. "And more importantly, he plays with an economy or an efficiency of movement. He knows when to exert energy and when not to, when to move and when not to move. Over a game and a month and a season and a decade, it adds up when you know when you need to put it on and take it off -- and he's really smart about that.''
No coach is better at pacing his players over the regular season and peaking them for the playoffs than Popovich. So long as Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are healthy, they should remain at the top of the contenders list next season.
A more delicate issue will concern the futures of premier defender Bruce Bowen, who is 36, starting guard Michael Finley (33) and reserves Robert Horry (37) and Brent Barry (35). The Spurs have long talked about getting younger: Two years ago they almost dealt Barry for young guard J.R. Smith, and there were rumors of more trades approaching the February deadline this season. The team coalesced and improved after it became clear that Popovich wasn't going to make any trades this year.
But next season, the Spurs may have to undertake a long-term strategy to eventually replace their older players. The most important of them is Bowen. Arguably the MVP of the playoffs for his defensive work against Steve Nash and LeBron James, Bowen will be entering the final year of his contract at a salary of $4.1 million. Will the Spurs consider a two-year extension that will keep him on the books until he's 39? If that investment makes Bowen feel appreciated and helps the Spurs win another championship, it will be well worth it.
It's not inconceivable that Duncan would also seek a two-year extension, though that could mean paying him close to $25 million when he's 36 in 2011-12. He can opt out next summer as well as the summer thereafter, though that seems unlikely.
Horry, who has won an astounding seven championships with three teams, wants to fulfill the final year of his contract at $3.6 million. Barry could be moved with one year remaining at $5.5 million, and Finley could opt out of his final year at $3.1 million, though at the moment that appears unlikely based on his emotional reaction to winning his first championship. Center Fabricio Oberto, 32, can opt out of his remaining year worth $2.5 million.
The Spurs will try to re-sign forward Matt Bonner, 27, and work him into the frontcourt to eventually take over for Horry. There also will be the annual speculation about another forward, 2002 second-round pick Luis Scola of Argentina, coming over from his club in Spain. Center Jackie Butler remains a long-term project, as does 2005 first-round pick Ian Mahinmi, who had a promising year in France. Because Mahinmi's club, Pau-Orthez, will not qualify for the Euroleague next season, the Spurs may bring the 20-year-old forward to the NBA next season and potentially install him in the D-League franchise in Austin. The Spurs are considering whether to buy into that franchise to create a true minor-league relationship. In any case, Mahinmi is years away from contributing at a championship level.
Whether or not the Spurs try to blend more youth into their complementary positions, it's hard to see who might supplant them next year. All of the challengers must address a weakness. The Mavericks need to pair Dirk Nowitzki with a second star, either through the continuing development of Josh Howard or by trade. The Suns must find a way to keep Shawn Marion and Amaré Stoudemire while getting a lot more from Stoudemire defensively. The Jazz need a shooting guard and the Rockets are facing a major transition in style. In the East, the Cavaliers, Pistons and other Finals contenders all seem years away from rivaling San Antonio.
The real question for the Spurs will be whether they can find the energy to make the effort that saw them through the second half of this season and the two months of the playoffs. But their opponents would be making a big mistake by anticipating a letdown in San Antonio.