spurscenter
06-21-2007, 02:26 PM
The Spurs will reign as champions for at least another 12 months while every other team in the league tries to figure out how to dethrone them.
Since the Spurs' most evolved competitors are most likely to be those ball clubs that qualified for the recently concluded playoffs, here's a first look at what alterations the non-lottery teams must make in the off-season to even dream of usurping San Antonio.
It's no secret that CHICAGO has to find an authentic post-up threat to balance the team's almost total reliance on a perimeter game. To that end, Andres Nocioni, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon and even Ben Wallace must be deemed expendable. Unless the Bulls can make a blockbuster trade they'll never recapture the rapture of being a serious contender.
The powers that be in CLEVELAND would be making a huge mistake in thinking that the Cavs as currently constituted will mature into a legitimate championship-caliber team. The two biggest blocks to their natural development are Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden, the former being the right player on the wrong team, and the latter being too much of a defensive handicap.
A dependable and creative point guard is needed to get LeBron James off the ball and on the receiving end of assist-passes. Chauncey Billups would be ideal (not only for the Cavs, but for every other headless team in the league). Maurice Williams would also fit the bill, as would somebody like Jose Calderon.
Gooden should be shown the exit, and in lieu of whatever he might bring in a trade, Anderson Varejao deserves a shot at the starting power-forward spot.
In addition to ridding themselves of Hughes and Gooden, Damon Jones should also be sent packing. More important than any roster shuffling, however, is the off-season reconstruction of LBJ's flawed jump shot. Nor would it hurt the Cavs' future for Mike Brown to radically reconfigure his James-centric offense.
DALLAS is in a bind. Even though Dirk Nowitzki has repeatedly failed to earn his spurs during the money season, he's still the face of the franchise. The task ahead is to surround the No-Man with clutch players who can rise up when he falls.
That means Jason Terry has to go. However, making Devin Harris the full-time point guard is a risky business given the youngster's proclivity for making poor decisions under pressure. Of course the dream point-man would be Chauncey Billups, and Mark Cuban certainly has the bankroll to absorb whatever it will take to sign CB as well as the matching surcharge.
If Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse were also less than brilliant versus the Warriors, they're still keepers. When he's healthy, Devean George plays admirable defense, but the Mavs need another creative wing-scorer off the bench.
DeSagana Diop is a terrific defender, but Erick Dampier lacks sufficient talent at both ends of the court to make much of a difference. The Mavs must ditch Dampier and somehow obtain a more skilled replacement. Too bad good bigs are so hard to find. Even so, with Nowitzki in the mix, the Mavs' options are limited. It's a sad state of affairs when a team's coach is the toughest, most intense member of the organization. The only "real" solution is for Cuban to go for broke and entice Billups to Big D.
DENVER is doomed to be Phoenix-lite. Lots of scoring, courtesy of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, but not nearly enough defense. To break their game plan down even further: Lots of run-and-gun thrills, but a paucity of hard-nosed half-court offensive efficiency.
As long as AI is around, the Nuggets will never be able to field a point guard who will have the ball enough times to make a real difference. George Karl should also decide that Anthony is a much more reliable and versatile scorer than Iverson, and should therefore be anointed as the Nuggets' official go-to guy.
Marcus Camby is a shot-happy lightweight who wanders too much on defense searching for stray shots to attack. Trade him before his next injury.
The return of Kenyon Martin will be no help whatsoever. A loudmouth bully who plays softly on the road, who backs down against the league's bona-fide tough guys, and who can't score with a pencil, is not what Denver needs.
Nene needs to get in shape and to get more touches. J. R. Smith needs to be banished, and a batch of more consistent outside shooters be found. But the AI conundrum is like the Gordian Knot, and his presence will tie up the roster for many seasons to come.
If Joe Dumars' public statements are to be believed, then Rasheed Wallace is a fixture in the frontcourt, and DETROIT's chances to return to the glory days of yore are minimal. While it's true that Wallace is the most talented player on the squad, his squirrelly mind-set makes him more often a hindrance than a help. For sure, Wallace played a major role in defeating the Lakers in the 2004 championship series — but it should be remembered that Karl Malone's physical defense rendered Rasheed useless in the first few games. It wasn't until Malone was injured and replaced by the defenseless Luke Walton that Wallace asserted himself.
Dumars has also indicated that Chris Webber will be asked to return. This would be another mistake. Webber showed his true colors (a combination of gray and yellow) in the conference finals. The more touches he gets, the fewer touches Billups and Hamilton wind up with. With Webber demanding the ball, Billups became more of a distributor and was unable to gear up his individual offense when the Pistons sorely needed him to score on his own.
If Rasheed and C-Webb must go, Billups must be re-signed, Amir Johnson must start contributing and Jason Maxiell must take the next step in his development. Also, Tayshaun Prince must have the Pistons-Cavs series erased from his memory bank. Plus, Flip Saunders must put more motion in the offense.
GOLDEN STATE is the wave of the future. Lots of isos and spectacular shots with a minimum of defense — although they sure did a good job of stuffing Nowitzki. It's a crowd-pleasing game plan with highlights galore. But it's no way to win a championship. At least not as long as fundamentalist teams like the Jazz and the Spurs remain intact.
What can Nellie do to make this team better? Replace old, worn parts with fresher ones. But what about replacing a knucklehead like Stephen Jackson?
Nellie Ball means that the ride will be fun, but will inevitably end in a crash.
Rick Adelman, HOUSTON's new coach, says that the Rockets will emulate the Suns' uptempo, air-it-out game. Sounds terrific. But do Mike James and/or Rafer Alston have the kind of mindfulness required for this to work? And who else besides Tracy McGrady has the broken-field skills to excel in a track meet? Not Shane Battier, Luther Head nor Yao Ming. Indeed, as the roster is currently constituted, the key factor in making this metamorphosis from a grind-it-out offense to a transitional one is Bonzi Wells.
Bonzi Wells? The selfish, mean-spirited, moody and lazy guy? That Bonzi Wells?
Good luck.
The LOS ANGELES LAKERS are at another one of their annual crossroads and changes will certainly be made. A new point guard is a necessity and any of the usual suspects — Billups, Mo Williams, and/or Calderon — would be a vast improvement over Smush Parker. However, the oft-rumored trade for Jermaine O'Neal is still another disaster-in-waiting. That's because O'Neal is soft, foul-prone and disinclined to play the pivot.
The main chips the Lakers have in the trade-game are Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Odom is what he is — a career second banana who needs too many touches to justify his results. Bynum will eventually develop into a solid 18-10 player and is therefore an attractive bait that just might bring in a superstar.
Like Kevin Garnett?
In any case, aside from opening the vault to sign Billups (highly improbable), and/or Rashard Lewis (marginally possible), and/or Grant Hill (feasible), the Lakers still need some radical surgery. But trading Kobe Bryant would lead to a successful operation that would surely kill the patient.
MIAMI is moribund. Father Time (plus his career-long Fat Albert imitation) is finally turning Shaq into Clark Kent. Jason Williams' wheels are shot. Antoine Walker and James Posey have likewise outlived their usefulness. Alonzo Mourning should retire, but probably won't. Gary Payton retired a year ago, but forgot to put the news on the wire. Jason Kapono can't guard or dribble, and needs a precision offense to generate his shots. Eddie Jones doesn't have much left in his tank. Only Udonis Haslem is still functional.
And then there's Dwyane Wade. Assuming he'll fully recover from his surgeries, D-Wade will be busier than a one-legged man at a butt-kicking contest.
Unless they sign several top-notch free agents or discover the fountain of youth, the Heat will be reduced to a low-grade simmer.
NEW JERSEY should have traded Vince Carter and Jason Kidd when they had a chance before last season's deadline. Now they're left with an older J-Kidd, and in VC a spurious superstar who's eyeing greener pastures. Plus, the sense of mid-season urgency that would have prompted playoff-bubble teams to part with high-caliber players has now given way to the lazy, hazy, free-agent days of summer.
Does Rod Thorn really think that Nenad Krstic is the missing ingredient?
Bah!
It's time to rebuild. Trade Kidd now and work a sign-and-trade for Carter. Standing pat in a swamp is always fatal.
ORLANDO is another team whose latest coach, Stan Van Gundy, vows to step on the gas. Too bad the holdover roster is spectacularly inadequate to succeed on the run.
Jameer Nelson is a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body. Hedo Turkoglu couldn't run fast if his pants were on fire. Ditto for J. J. Redick. Carlos Arroyo has sticky fingers. Darko Milicic (should he be re-signed) will choose to run or not to run, depending on factors known only to him. The word is that Orlando has the inside track to sign Vince Carter, but Carter would rather start his offense from a dead-stop.
On the plus side, Dwight Howard is a rebounding machine, certainly able to initiate fast breaks. But only Keyon Dooling and Trevor Ariza are legitimate runners.
Unless there are drastic changes in the works, the running game is the wrong approach for this lead-footed team.
PHOENIX plans to trade Kurt Thomas (the only player who could at least partially control Tim Duncan), and perhaps also deal Shawn Marion (the only player who doesn't need the ball to score) — and keep on keeping on.
Obviously Mike D'Antoni feels that had Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw played in Game 5 the Suns would have won the series and the championship. If this is indeed the case, then D'Antoni is delusional. But thinking that his Rucker Park offense can take him to the Promised Land is a pipe dream to begin with.
Speed, athleticism and Steve Nash's prestidigitations won't bring a title to Phoenix unless little Stevie Wonder outlasts the Spurs' reign of influence.
Can't happen. Won't happen.
For SAN ANTONIO to repeat several things must happen: Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto are re-signed or replaced. Mike Finely is convinced to return. And Tony Parker's jet speed isn't hindered by his newly acquired ball-and-chain.
TORONTO needs a wing who can create his own shots. Also a younger, more vertatile banger in the middle. But one of the Raptors' biggest problems is chronic: T. J. Ford, who takes too many bad shots, is an erratic long-distance dialer, is defenseless, and because of his lack of strength is only effective from foul line to foul line.
Indeed, the team is much better off with Jose Calderon at the point, but they've invested too much money in Ford to trade him in for a more serviceable model.
Overall, the team relies too much on finesse and is in dire need of some power players.
To reach the next level, UTAH needs to make some dramatic alterations. While Derek Fisher is an old pro who can guard and also make clutch shots, he needs to become more of a spot player off the bench. Matt Harpring is a keeper, but Gordon Giricek doesn't have the athleticism or the creativity that the Jazz need. If Rafael Araujo is as good as Jerry Sloan thinks he is (and he just might be that), and if Paul Millsap can grow into a more reliable force in the paint, then Utah's need for another big man isn't so drastic. However, a more athletic and versatile backup at the power forward spot is a must behind the limited capabilities of Mehmet Okur.
And what to do about Andrei Kirilenko? Perhaps spending the summer improving his attitude would be a start. Otherwise, he's ripe to be deported out of Utah.
Meanwhile, there's a good chance that the tandem of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams just might surpass the achievements of Malone-Stockton.
WASHINGTON must do something to change its modus operandi. Has the erratic Gilbert Arenas taken this team as far as it can go? Is Antawn Jamison too soft around the edges? Can Brendan Haywood bring anything useful in a trade?
Last season's untimely injuries provide a good crutch, but the truth remains that the Wizards are a doughnut team that lives or (mostly) dies by the jump shot.
If the Wiz truly want to make a run at the Spurs, several moves have to be made: Haywood has to be sent elsewhere and a less-immature, more hard-working big imported. An experienced point guard must be signed so that Arenas can be moved to the shooting-guard position. And Jamison should be used as a blue chip on the trading market.
Otherwise a peek behind the back curtain will reveal that all the smoke and fire does nothing more than to hide a severely flawed group of ersatz wizards.
In other words, barring major roster upheavals, the Spurs look like a lock in 2008.
Since the Spurs' most evolved competitors are most likely to be those ball clubs that qualified for the recently concluded playoffs, here's a first look at what alterations the non-lottery teams must make in the off-season to even dream of usurping San Antonio.
It's no secret that CHICAGO has to find an authentic post-up threat to balance the team's almost total reliance on a perimeter game. To that end, Andres Nocioni, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon and even Ben Wallace must be deemed expendable. Unless the Bulls can make a blockbuster trade they'll never recapture the rapture of being a serious contender.
The powers that be in CLEVELAND would be making a huge mistake in thinking that the Cavs as currently constituted will mature into a legitimate championship-caliber team. The two biggest blocks to their natural development are Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden, the former being the right player on the wrong team, and the latter being too much of a defensive handicap.
A dependable and creative point guard is needed to get LeBron James off the ball and on the receiving end of assist-passes. Chauncey Billups would be ideal (not only for the Cavs, but for every other headless team in the league). Maurice Williams would also fit the bill, as would somebody like Jose Calderon.
Gooden should be shown the exit, and in lieu of whatever he might bring in a trade, Anderson Varejao deserves a shot at the starting power-forward spot.
In addition to ridding themselves of Hughes and Gooden, Damon Jones should also be sent packing. More important than any roster shuffling, however, is the off-season reconstruction of LBJ's flawed jump shot. Nor would it hurt the Cavs' future for Mike Brown to radically reconfigure his James-centric offense.
DALLAS is in a bind. Even though Dirk Nowitzki has repeatedly failed to earn his spurs during the money season, he's still the face of the franchise. The task ahead is to surround the No-Man with clutch players who can rise up when he falls.
That means Jason Terry has to go. However, making Devin Harris the full-time point guard is a risky business given the youngster's proclivity for making poor decisions under pressure. Of course the dream point-man would be Chauncey Billups, and Mark Cuban certainly has the bankroll to absorb whatever it will take to sign CB as well as the matching surcharge.
If Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse were also less than brilliant versus the Warriors, they're still keepers. When he's healthy, Devean George plays admirable defense, but the Mavs need another creative wing-scorer off the bench.
DeSagana Diop is a terrific defender, but Erick Dampier lacks sufficient talent at both ends of the court to make much of a difference. The Mavs must ditch Dampier and somehow obtain a more skilled replacement. Too bad good bigs are so hard to find. Even so, with Nowitzki in the mix, the Mavs' options are limited. It's a sad state of affairs when a team's coach is the toughest, most intense member of the organization. The only "real" solution is for Cuban to go for broke and entice Billups to Big D.
DENVER is doomed to be Phoenix-lite. Lots of scoring, courtesy of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, but not nearly enough defense. To break their game plan down even further: Lots of run-and-gun thrills, but a paucity of hard-nosed half-court offensive efficiency.
As long as AI is around, the Nuggets will never be able to field a point guard who will have the ball enough times to make a real difference. George Karl should also decide that Anthony is a much more reliable and versatile scorer than Iverson, and should therefore be anointed as the Nuggets' official go-to guy.
Marcus Camby is a shot-happy lightweight who wanders too much on defense searching for stray shots to attack. Trade him before his next injury.
The return of Kenyon Martin will be no help whatsoever. A loudmouth bully who plays softly on the road, who backs down against the league's bona-fide tough guys, and who can't score with a pencil, is not what Denver needs.
Nene needs to get in shape and to get more touches. J. R. Smith needs to be banished, and a batch of more consistent outside shooters be found. But the AI conundrum is like the Gordian Knot, and his presence will tie up the roster for many seasons to come.
If Joe Dumars' public statements are to be believed, then Rasheed Wallace is a fixture in the frontcourt, and DETROIT's chances to return to the glory days of yore are minimal. While it's true that Wallace is the most talented player on the squad, his squirrelly mind-set makes him more often a hindrance than a help. For sure, Wallace played a major role in defeating the Lakers in the 2004 championship series — but it should be remembered that Karl Malone's physical defense rendered Rasheed useless in the first few games. It wasn't until Malone was injured and replaced by the defenseless Luke Walton that Wallace asserted himself.
Dumars has also indicated that Chris Webber will be asked to return. This would be another mistake. Webber showed his true colors (a combination of gray and yellow) in the conference finals. The more touches he gets, the fewer touches Billups and Hamilton wind up with. With Webber demanding the ball, Billups became more of a distributor and was unable to gear up his individual offense when the Pistons sorely needed him to score on his own.
If Rasheed and C-Webb must go, Billups must be re-signed, Amir Johnson must start contributing and Jason Maxiell must take the next step in his development. Also, Tayshaun Prince must have the Pistons-Cavs series erased from his memory bank. Plus, Flip Saunders must put more motion in the offense.
GOLDEN STATE is the wave of the future. Lots of isos and spectacular shots with a minimum of defense — although they sure did a good job of stuffing Nowitzki. It's a crowd-pleasing game plan with highlights galore. But it's no way to win a championship. At least not as long as fundamentalist teams like the Jazz and the Spurs remain intact.
What can Nellie do to make this team better? Replace old, worn parts with fresher ones. But what about replacing a knucklehead like Stephen Jackson?
Nellie Ball means that the ride will be fun, but will inevitably end in a crash.
Rick Adelman, HOUSTON's new coach, says that the Rockets will emulate the Suns' uptempo, air-it-out game. Sounds terrific. But do Mike James and/or Rafer Alston have the kind of mindfulness required for this to work? And who else besides Tracy McGrady has the broken-field skills to excel in a track meet? Not Shane Battier, Luther Head nor Yao Ming. Indeed, as the roster is currently constituted, the key factor in making this metamorphosis from a grind-it-out offense to a transitional one is Bonzi Wells.
Bonzi Wells? The selfish, mean-spirited, moody and lazy guy? That Bonzi Wells?
Good luck.
The LOS ANGELES LAKERS are at another one of their annual crossroads and changes will certainly be made. A new point guard is a necessity and any of the usual suspects — Billups, Mo Williams, and/or Calderon — would be a vast improvement over Smush Parker. However, the oft-rumored trade for Jermaine O'Neal is still another disaster-in-waiting. That's because O'Neal is soft, foul-prone and disinclined to play the pivot.
The main chips the Lakers have in the trade-game are Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Odom is what he is — a career second banana who needs too many touches to justify his results. Bynum will eventually develop into a solid 18-10 player and is therefore an attractive bait that just might bring in a superstar.
Like Kevin Garnett?
In any case, aside from opening the vault to sign Billups (highly improbable), and/or Rashard Lewis (marginally possible), and/or Grant Hill (feasible), the Lakers still need some radical surgery. But trading Kobe Bryant would lead to a successful operation that would surely kill the patient.
MIAMI is moribund. Father Time (plus his career-long Fat Albert imitation) is finally turning Shaq into Clark Kent. Jason Williams' wheels are shot. Antoine Walker and James Posey have likewise outlived their usefulness. Alonzo Mourning should retire, but probably won't. Gary Payton retired a year ago, but forgot to put the news on the wire. Jason Kapono can't guard or dribble, and needs a precision offense to generate his shots. Eddie Jones doesn't have much left in his tank. Only Udonis Haslem is still functional.
And then there's Dwyane Wade. Assuming he'll fully recover from his surgeries, D-Wade will be busier than a one-legged man at a butt-kicking contest.
Unless they sign several top-notch free agents or discover the fountain of youth, the Heat will be reduced to a low-grade simmer.
NEW JERSEY should have traded Vince Carter and Jason Kidd when they had a chance before last season's deadline. Now they're left with an older J-Kidd, and in VC a spurious superstar who's eyeing greener pastures. Plus, the sense of mid-season urgency that would have prompted playoff-bubble teams to part with high-caliber players has now given way to the lazy, hazy, free-agent days of summer.
Does Rod Thorn really think that Nenad Krstic is the missing ingredient?
Bah!
It's time to rebuild. Trade Kidd now and work a sign-and-trade for Carter. Standing pat in a swamp is always fatal.
ORLANDO is another team whose latest coach, Stan Van Gundy, vows to step on the gas. Too bad the holdover roster is spectacularly inadequate to succeed on the run.
Jameer Nelson is a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body. Hedo Turkoglu couldn't run fast if his pants were on fire. Ditto for J. J. Redick. Carlos Arroyo has sticky fingers. Darko Milicic (should he be re-signed) will choose to run or not to run, depending on factors known only to him. The word is that Orlando has the inside track to sign Vince Carter, but Carter would rather start his offense from a dead-stop.
On the plus side, Dwight Howard is a rebounding machine, certainly able to initiate fast breaks. But only Keyon Dooling and Trevor Ariza are legitimate runners.
Unless there are drastic changes in the works, the running game is the wrong approach for this lead-footed team.
PHOENIX plans to trade Kurt Thomas (the only player who could at least partially control Tim Duncan), and perhaps also deal Shawn Marion (the only player who doesn't need the ball to score) — and keep on keeping on.
Obviously Mike D'Antoni feels that had Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw played in Game 5 the Suns would have won the series and the championship. If this is indeed the case, then D'Antoni is delusional. But thinking that his Rucker Park offense can take him to the Promised Land is a pipe dream to begin with.
Speed, athleticism and Steve Nash's prestidigitations won't bring a title to Phoenix unless little Stevie Wonder outlasts the Spurs' reign of influence.
Can't happen. Won't happen.
For SAN ANTONIO to repeat several things must happen: Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto are re-signed or replaced. Mike Finely is convinced to return. And Tony Parker's jet speed isn't hindered by his newly acquired ball-and-chain.
TORONTO needs a wing who can create his own shots. Also a younger, more vertatile banger in the middle. But one of the Raptors' biggest problems is chronic: T. J. Ford, who takes too many bad shots, is an erratic long-distance dialer, is defenseless, and because of his lack of strength is only effective from foul line to foul line.
Indeed, the team is much better off with Jose Calderon at the point, but they've invested too much money in Ford to trade him in for a more serviceable model.
Overall, the team relies too much on finesse and is in dire need of some power players.
To reach the next level, UTAH needs to make some dramatic alterations. While Derek Fisher is an old pro who can guard and also make clutch shots, he needs to become more of a spot player off the bench. Matt Harpring is a keeper, but Gordon Giricek doesn't have the athleticism or the creativity that the Jazz need. If Rafael Araujo is as good as Jerry Sloan thinks he is (and he just might be that), and if Paul Millsap can grow into a more reliable force in the paint, then Utah's need for another big man isn't so drastic. However, a more athletic and versatile backup at the power forward spot is a must behind the limited capabilities of Mehmet Okur.
And what to do about Andrei Kirilenko? Perhaps spending the summer improving his attitude would be a start. Otherwise, he's ripe to be deported out of Utah.
Meanwhile, there's a good chance that the tandem of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams just might surpass the achievements of Malone-Stockton.
WASHINGTON must do something to change its modus operandi. Has the erratic Gilbert Arenas taken this team as far as it can go? Is Antawn Jamison too soft around the edges? Can Brendan Haywood bring anything useful in a trade?
Last season's untimely injuries provide a good crutch, but the truth remains that the Wizards are a doughnut team that lives or (mostly) dies by the jump shot.
If the Wiz truly want to make a run at the Spurs, several moves have to be made: Haywood has to be sent elsewhere and a less-immature, more hard-working big imported. An experienced point guard must be signed so that Arenas can be moved to the shooting-guard position. And Jamison should be used as a blue chip on the trading market.
Otherwise a peek behind the back curtain will reveal that all the smoke and fire does nothing more than to hide a severely flawed group of ersatz wizards.
In other words, barring major roster upheavals, the Spurs look like a lock in 2008.