Supergirl
06-29-2007, 01:40 PM
As someone pointed out in another thread, very few #1 picks have gone on to win championships (TD, Shaq, D-Rob) and only 2 of those won with the franchise that drafted them.
Also, it takes a lot for 1 player to completely turn a team around. TD did it, and has won 4 championships, Lebron did it and got his team into the playoffs immediately and to the Finals in 2 seasons.
I am not convinced that Oden, Durant, or Horford will be those franchise-changing players. Certainly all three of them won't. Will Oden be the TD of his generation - completely redefining his team, and getting them to the playoffs every year of his career, and winning several championships? Lots of sports writers seem to think he will. Maybe he will, maybe he won't.
Of the top 3 picks, I would not be surprised (just from what I've heard - I've never seen any of these guys play, really) if Horford is the real franchise changer.
Atlanta has more talent and more pieces in place already, and is the most read to benefit from one player to build around, and Horford is reputed to be AMAZINGLY talented. I definitely think Seattle is in rebuilding mode and is still a few years away from making the playoffs, which means Durant isn't really that kind of franchise changer. And Seattle and Atlanta both have very dysfunctional organizations, so I could see either team really fucking things up for themselves, although my money would be on Seattle to fare better, with Presti in charge. So, maybe it'll be Portland after all, since they seem to have put most of their dysfunction behind them.
What do other people think? Will all 3 be franchise changers? None of them?
Also, it takes a lot for 1 player to completely turn a team around. TD did it, and has won 4 championships, Lebron did it and got his team into the playoffs immediately and to the Finals in 2 seasons.
I am not convinced that Oden, Durant, or Horford will be those franchise-changing players. Certainly all three of them won't. Will Oden be the TD of his generation - completely redefining his team, and getting them to the playoffs every year of his career, and winning several championships? Lots of sports writers seem to think he will. Maybe he will, maybe he won't.
Of the top 3 picks, I would not be surprised (just from what I've heard - I've never seen any of these guys play, really) if Horford is the real franchise changer.
Atlanta has more talent and more pieces in place already, and is the most read to benefit from one player to build around, and Horford is reputed to be AMAZINGLY talented. I definitely think Seattle is in rebuilding mode and is still a few years away from making the playoffs, which means Durant isn't really that kind of franchise changer. And Seattle and Atlanta both have very dysfunctional organizations, so I could see either team really fucking things up for themselves, although my money would be on Seattle to fare better, with Presti in charge. So, maybe it'll be Portland after all, since they seem to have put most of their dysfunction behind them.
What do other people think? Will all 3 be franchise changers? None of them?