Hollinger: Forecasting recently drafted internationals

[pad300]

Has anyone posted Hollingers insider blog about the translation of Euroleague players to the NBA??

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2920870&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fdraft2007%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumni st%3dhollinger_john%26id%3d2920870

It might be really interesting to see what he has to say about Scola and Splitters possible transitions...

[TheTruth]

Forecasting the NBA careers of recently drafted international players
Hollinger

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider


We've been focusing mostly on the collegians in this draft, as it was an unusually strong class of college players and a relatively weak one for foreign talent.

Nonetheless, there were a few first-rounders who came from overseas in Thursday's draft, and several more could be arriving on our shores via free agency this summer. Thus, it's time for me to bust out my system of Euroleague translations.

There's a very predictable relationship between a player's stats in Europe and what they'll be in the NBA, one that shows surprisingly little variation between players. Those who make the jump from the Euroleague (the highest level of European basketball) to the NBA can expect the following:

• their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;
• their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);
• their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);
• their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and
• overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

So knowing that, here's some translated stats from the key foreigners in the draft, and then those from free agency. And before we start, note that several draft picks -- Yi Jianlian, Petteri Koponen, Kyrylo Fesenko, Sun Yue, Giorgos Printezis, Renaldas Seibutis, Brad Newley, Milovan Rakovic and Stanko "Obama" Barac -- didn't play in the Euroleague last year, so I have no numbers for them.

Marco Belinelli (13.3 pts/40, 3.1 reb/40, 33.4 FG percent, 7.34 PER)
What's the Italian word for "dog" again? I'm just shocked that Belinelli went as high as he did, because basically, the numbers say he can't play ... at all. Based on last year's stats he's not even a CBA player. His translated stats from the year before are a little better (42.1 FG percent, 10.72 PER), but still make him look like end-of-the-bench fodder at best. If the Warriors think this guy can replace Jason Richardson, I think they're in for a rather rude surprise.

Rudy Fernandez (17.5 pts/40, 6.6 reb/40, 42.0 FG percent, 15.83 PER)
Another coup for Trail Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard, provided he can get Fernandez to come stateside from Spain. Based on his numbers, he's a quality NBA shooting guard right now, and at 22 he still has some upside to explore. I realize his contract status scared off some teams, but I'm still trying to figure out how this guy went seven picks after Belinelli.

Tiago Splitter (12.6 pts/40, 11.2 reb/40, 51.0 FG percent, 13.04 PER)
Splitter has been consistent at this level the past couple of years, with numbers that indicate he can contribute right away as a "first big man off the bench" type. But the Brazilian won't be destined for stardom. Still, that makes him a good value pick for the Spurs at No. 28 (what else is new), because they'll be getting quality size at a cheap rookie salary if they can get him out of his contract.

Marc Gasol (14.1 pts/40, 9.8 reb/40, 14.78 PER in 2006)
Gasol's projection from the 2005-06 season is really strong for a second-round pick, but it came in only 86 minutes of action. The Spanish big man didn't play in the Euroleague this year.

Luis Scola (17.1 pts/40. 10.2 reb/40, 50.4 FG percent, 16.27 PER)
Scola's numbers had taken a bit of a dip the previous two seasons, but he had a strong season last year that should help keep his stock high should San Antonio trade his rights this summer. The Argentine power forward projects as one of the few Euros who could start in the NBA immediately.

Theodoros Papaloukas (12.5 pts./40, 12.0 ast/40, 50.9 FG percent, 15.72 PER)
If you're wondering why there's going to be a bidding war for the Greek guard this summer, look at those numbers again. He also projects to grab six boards per 40 minutes, thanks to a 6-foot, 7-inch frame that has made him a match-up nightmare in Europe. He's not a natural shooter but his playmaking skills should make him a huge asset stateside. And he's humble, too -- despite being the best player on the continent, he comes off the bench.

Lior Eliyahu (14.8 pts/40, 11.4 reb/40, 48.7 FG percent, 15.18 PER)
After a very strong European campaign, the 6-8 Israeli forward is undoubtedly ready to ply his trade in the NBA. Eliyahu's rights are owned by the Houston Rockets, and hopefully they won't make the same mistake they did with Vassilis Spanoulis a year ago and just have him spotting up in the corner all year -- Eliyahu didn't make a single 3 in Euroleague play. But he's an adept slasher, and he's only 21.

Lazaros Papadopoulos (15.0 pts/40 11.5 reb/40, 46.7 FG percent, 14.68 PER)
I've been slow to come around on the lumbering Greek big man, but after another strong season it seems he would have a place in the NBA. He'd have been better off joining the league of 10 years ago, though, as his slow feet will hinder him against today's greyhounds. But he can score in the post

Dimitrios Diamantidis (9.3 pts/40, 7.2 ast/40, 43.1 FG percent, 11.60 PER)
Diamantidis has carved out a niche as the Bruce Bowen of Europe -- he's been the Euroleague's Defensive Player of the Year multiple times, and he does just enough offensively to keep defenses honest. I'm not sure what the Greek swingman's contract status is, but he's already 27 so if he wants to make the leap the clock's ticking.

Mike Batiste (17.6 pts/40, 13.0 reb/40, 56.9 FG percent, 17.55 PER)
Short power forwards tend to have an easier time in Europe, so I take Batiste's numbers with a slight grain of salt. That said, Mr. High Socks has played so well across the pond that teams probably should be examining whether it's worth repatriating him to the NBA. The ex-Grizzlies forward is 30 and projects as something of a Gary Trent-type, but that kind of player can be useful on the right team.

Sofoklis Schortsanitis (17.0 pts/40, 7.4 reb/40, 57.7 FG percent, 12.72 PER)
The Greek forward is a round mound, but leave out the rebound part -- his lack of mobility hurts his numbers there. However, he's such an effective scorer around the basket that he can still be a quality role player in the league. This was an off year for him, too -- his numbers were stronger in '06 (15.64 PER). The L.A. Clippers own his rights.

Kaspars Kambala (18.2 pts/40, 9.2 reb/40, 53/8 FG percent, 16.11 PER)
The Latvian power forward played collegiately at UNLV, but turned off the pros with his attitude and soft D. He put up strong numbers in limited minutes in Turkey this year, and if he proves it wasn't a fluke the NBA may have to reconsider.

Matjaz Smodis (16.4 pts/40, 7.6 reb/40, 43.8 FG percent, 14.27 PER)
A 28-year-old Slovenian forward, Smodis hasn't exactly set scouts agog over the years. But his numbers have improved steadily each season, and his play has reached the point where NBA teams might have to take him more seriously.

Mike Wilkinson (13.9 pts/40, 10/5 reb/40, 47.5 FG percent, 15.45 PER)
A 6-8 forward out of Wisconsin who was passed over in the 2005 NBA draft, Wilkinson put together a very strong season for Aris TT in Greece this year. Scouts probably want to see a repeat performance before they buy in, and it's not totally clear what his position is in the U.S. But keep an eye on him.

Demos Dikoudis (16.0 pts/40, 11.9 reb/40, 51.6 FG percent, 13.99 PER)
I've always liked this guy (whose name you'll sometimes see as Dimos Dtikoudis; it's all Greek to me), but he's 30 and he's a tweener, so the NBA might never come calling. If it did, he'd be a solid role player.

Kosta Perovic (12.0 pts/40, 11.1 reb/40, 44.0 FG percent, 12.21 PER)
Golden State owns the rights to the 7-2 Croatian, but it seems likely they'll let him develop his game overseas for another year or two before bringing him across. Based on his numbers from last year, they needn't hurry.

Ian Mahinmi (10.0 pts/40, 11.7 reb/40, 58.7 FG percent, 7.85 PER)
The Spurs have the French project as part of their now-sprawling European farm system, but he seems a long, long way from being ready.

Ricky Rubio (5.5 pts/40, 7.3 ast.40, 40.6 FG percent, 9.60 PER)
I threw this one in for giggles. Rubio can't score at all yet, but give him a break -- he's only 16! In a couple years the Spanish guard is likely to be among the most coveted players in basketball.

While I have your attention, a quick follow-up is also in order on my draft rankings column:

• The highest-rated undrafted player was Kyle Visser of Waker Forest, who I had ranked 15th. Other oversights include Air Force's Jacob Burtschi, whom I mistakenly left off my orginal list but ranked 26th with a rating of 440.8. Other undrafted players in my top 40 included Zabian Dowdell of Virginia Tech (30th; 438.2), Matt Lojeski of Hawaii (34th, 422.7), Ivan Radenovic of Arizona (37th; 416.8), Cartier Martin of Kansas St. (38th, 411.6), and Mustafa Shakur of Arizona (40th, 397.3).

• Three players -- Nick Young, Aaron Brooks, and Arron Afflalo -- were first-round picks despite ranking outside the top 40. Not coincidentally, they're also my three best bets to be busts. Special kudos also are due to Kevin McHale for taking two Florida guys -- looks like his remote was his main scouting tool again. I think Corey Brewer will be a decent role player but not much more; I doubt Chris Richard will be even that.

• Two players in my top 10 -- Nick Fazekas and Josh McRoberts -- went in the second round, to Dallas and Portland respectively. I'm rating those two choices and Philly's selection of Thaddeous Young at No. 12 (I had him 4th) as the best value picks in the draft.

• Several folks have asked where the Knicks' Randolph Morris would have ranked. I had him eighth on the board, right between Josh McRoberts and Nick Fazekas.

• Finally, here are the ratings for the 11 college players not on my original list who were drafted on Thursday. Adam Haluska, Reyshawn Terry and Jermareo Davidson look like they have a good chance to stick as reserves; for the others it ain't pretty:

Adam Haluska: 417.5 Reyshawn Terry: 414.8 Jermareo Davidson: 401.0 Jared Jordan: 348.9 Sammy Mejia: 336.9 Carl Landry: 335.3 Aaron Brooks: 345.7 Dominic McGuire: 302.8 Chris Richard: 296.2 Demetris Nichols: 294.2 Stephane Lasme: 257.5

[timvp]

Tiago Splitter (12.6 pts/40, 11.2 reb/40, 51.0 FG percent, 13.04 PER)
Splitter has been consistent at this level the past couple of years, with numbers that indicate he can contribute right away as a "first big man off the bench" type. But the Brazilian won't be destined for stardom. Still, that makes him a good value pick for the Spurs at No. 28 (what else is new), because they'll be getting quality size at a cheap rookie salary if they can get him out of his contract.

Exactly. He was a boring pick. But he's played so much and he has so much experience that there is an extremely small chance that he's a bust. And at 28, that's almost impossible to find.

There's no reason why he can't average between six to nine points and four to seven rebounds once he gets his time with the Spurs. He's not going to be great but he is going to be solid and can play a role.

[Obstructed_View]

If someone was looking for David Robinson at that spot, they are going to be disappointed. If they are looking for a center that's an upgrade from Elson and will have a long career in the league, that seems doable to me.

[mikejones99]

Spurs don't need no goddam draft. they are perfect now.

[wildbill2u]

Exactly. He was a boring pick. But he's played so much and he has so much experience that there is an extremely small chance that he's a bust. And at 28, that's almost impossible to find.

There's no reason why he can't average between six to nine points and four to seven rebounds once he gets his time with the Spurs. He's not going to be great but he is going to be solid and can play a role.
Compared with Rasho, Nazr and Elson on offense he's an upgrade. One of the best pair of hands on the pick and roll for a guy his size I've seen.

His defense will be better than Elson and Nazr, but he's hard to compare with Rasho. He may be better because he's a hell of a lot more mobile.

[T Park]

I still think hes got the tools, and the talent, to be able to have 10 and 10.

[CosmicCowboy]

Compared with Rasho, Nazr and Elson on offense he's an upgrade. One of the best pair of hands on the pick and roll for a guy his size I've seen.

His defense will be better than Elson and Nazr, but he's hard to compare with Rasho. He may be better because he's a hell of a lot more mobile.

He has good soft hands but he also has hand/body strength issues but I'm confident that if they can get him over here Spurs can fix that. The kids only 22. He has much better lateral mobility than any of the guys mentioned above and a higher basketball IQ but doesn't have screaming vertical hops...

I think that we are gonna be VERY pleased with this pick in a couple of years.

[milkyway21]

Dimitrios Diamantidis (9.3 pts/40, 7.2 ast/40, 43.1 FG percent, 11.60 PER)
Diamantidis has carved out a niche as the Bruce Bowen of Europe -- he's been the Euroleague's Defensive Player of the Year multiple times, and he does just enough offensively to keep defenses honest. I'm not sure what the Greek swingman's contract status is, but he's already 27 so if he wants to make the leap the clock's ticking.

I wonder if the Spurs would want a 27-yr old DD replacing BB. Bruce Bowen still got 2-3 more yrs left and by the time he's old and slow DD will already be 30.

Pass.

[L.I.T]

I wonder if this guys premises are going to continue to hold true as NBA teams draft, and bring over, Euro-players at younger ages.

[michaelwcho]

I'm wondering if someone who has Insider can spill it on what his system shows for Scola and Splitter.

[Darkwaters]

I'm wondering if someone who has Insider can spill it on what his system shows for Scola and Splitter.

Do you not see that posted above? Mahinmi is there too.

[michaelwcho]

Do you not see that posted above? Mahinmi is there too.

Someone merged my thread with this one.


Thanks, The Truth!

[Leetonidas]

I like Ian's rebounding numbers.

[Kori Ellis]

I still think hes got the tools, and the talent, to be able to have 10 and 10.

Wow. How much have you seen him play?

I wouldn't think anyone would project him to average 10 boards a game.

[TheTruth]

How many players even averaged a double double this year?

[Kori Ellis]

How many players even averaged a double double this year?

10

[timvp]

Tiago Splitter (12.6 pts/40, 11.2 reb/40, 51.0 FG percent, 13.04 PER)

For those who insist that Splitter has improved over the years, here are some other numbers I can find that show he's stayed pretty much the same player since he was 17:

2002 World Championships: 14.2 pts/40, 9.1 reb/40

2004 Euroleague: 14.5 pts/40, 8.7 reb/40

2005 Spanish League: 18.4 pts/40, 9.5 reb/40

2006 Spanish League: 18.3 pts/ 40, 8.1 reb/40

Splitter has been virtually the same prospect since he was 17.

[exstatic]

TPark thinks everyone we draft will be 10/10.

[Pero]

Matjaz Smodis (16.4 pts/40, 7.6 reb/40, 43.8 FG percent, 14.27 PER)
A 28-year-old Slovenian forward, Smodis hasn't exactly set scouts agog over the years. But his numbers have improved steadily each season, and his play has reached the point where NBA teams might have to take him more seriously.


Interesting. Really is a shame he had such a big problem with injuries.




Kosta Perovic (12.0 pts/40, 11.1 reb/40, 44.0 FG percent, 12.21 PER)
Golden State owns the rights to the 7-2 Croatian, but it seems likely they'll let him develop his game overseas for another year or two before bringing him across. Based on his numbers from last year, they needn't hurry.


He`s Serbian. Isn`t Hollinger like some kind of genius or something? :lol:

[exstatic]

I.He`s Serbian. Isn`t Hollinger like some kind of genius or something? :lol
With stats, yes. With nationalities, not so much.
:p: