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View Full Version : A sequel to ABC's "Path to 9/11"?



PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 12:56 PM
Well, the following takes place in 2005, so it's hard to see how they could manufacture some connection to Clinton...so probably not.


U.S. Aborted Raid on Qaeda Chiefs in Pakistan in ’05 (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/08/washington/08intel.html?_r=2&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1183914066-s5UjKU6rtl4OdOitNkFY5A&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin)
By MARK MAZZETTI
Published: July 8, 2007

WASHINGTON, July 7 — [B]A secret military operation in early 2005 to capture senior members of Al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal areas was aborted at the last minute after top Bush administration officials decided it was too risky and could jeopardize relations with Pakistan, according to intelligence and military officials.

The target was a meeting of Qaeda leaders that intelligence officials thought included Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama bin Laden’s top deputy and the man believed to run the terrorist group’s operations.

But the mission was called off after Donald H. Rumsfeld, then the defense secretary, rejected an 11th-hour appeal by Porter J. Goss, then the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, officials said. Members of a Navy Seals unit in parachute gear had already boarded C-130 cargo planes in Afghanistan when the mission was canceled, said a former senior intelligence official involved in the planning.

Mr. Rumsfeld decided that the operation, which had ballooned from a small number of military personnel and C.I.A. operatives to several hundred, was cumbersome and put too many American lives at risk, the current and former officials said. He was also concerned that it could cause a rift with Pakistan, an often reluctant ally that has barred the American military from operating in its tribal areas, the officials said.

The decision to halt the planned “snatch and grab” operation frustrated some top intelligence officials and members of the military’s secret Special Operations units, who say the United States missed a significant opportunity to try to capture senior members of Al Qaeda.

Their frustration has only grown over the past two years, they said, as Al Qaeda has improved its abilities to plan global attacks and build new training compounds in Pakistan’s tribal areas, which have become virtual havens for the terrorist network.

In recent months, the White House has become increasingly irritated with Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, for his inaction on the growing threat of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

About a dozen current and former military and intelligence officials were interviewed for this article, all of whom requested anonymity because the planned 2005 mission remained classified. (yeah, yeah, I know, Yonivore...KILL THE LEAKERS!)

Spokesmen for the Pentagon, the C.I.A. and the White House declined to comment. It is unclear whether President Bush was informed about the planned operation.

The officials acknowledge that they are not certain that Mr. Zawahri attended the 2005 meeting in North Waziristan, a mountainous province just miles from the Afghan border. But they said that the United States had communications intercepts that tipped them off to the meeting, and that intelligence officials had unusually high confidence that Mr. Zawahri was there.

Months later, in early May 2005, the C.I.A. launched a missile from a remotely piloted Predator drone, killing Haitham al-Yemeni, a senior Qaeda figure whom the C.I.A. had tracked since the meeting.

It has long been known that C.I.A. operatives conduct counterterrorism missions in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Details of the aborted 2005 operation provide a glimpse into the Bush administration’s internal negotiations over whether to take unilateral military action in Pakistan, where General Musharraf’s fragile government is under pressure from dissidents who object to any cooperation with the United States.

Pentagon officials familiar with covert operations said that planners had to consider the political and human risks of undertaking a military campaign in a sovereign country, even in an area like Pakistan’s tribal lands, where the government has only tenuous control. Even with its shortcomings, Pakistan has been a vital American ally since the Sept. 11 attacks, and the militaries of the two countries have close ties.

The Pentagon officials said tension was inherent in any decision to approve such a mission: a smaller military footprint allows a better chance of a mission going undetected, but it also exposes the units to greater risk of being killed or captured.

Officials said one reason Mr. Rumsfeld called off the 2005 operation was that the number of troops involved in the mission had grown to several hundred, including Army Rangers, members of the Navy Seals and C.I.A. operatives, and he determined that the United States could no longer carry out the mission without General Musharraf’s permission. It is unlikely that the Pakistani president would have approved an operation of that size, officials said. (Since when have this Administration sought "permission" from anyone?)

Some outside experts said American counterterrorism operations had been hamstrung because of concerns about General Musharraf’s shaky government.

“The reluctance to take risk or jeopardize our political relationship with Musharraf may well account for the fact that five and half years after 9/11 we are still trying to run bin Laden and Zawahri to ground,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University.

Those political considerations have created resentment among some members of the military’s Special Operations forces.

“The Special Operations guys are tearing their hair out at the highest levels,” said a former Bush administration official with close ties to those troops. While they have not received good intelligence on the whereabouts of top Qaeda members recently, he said, they say they believe they have sometimes had useful information on lower-level figures.

“There is a degree of frustration that is off the charts, because they are looking at targets on a daily basis and can’t move against them,” he said.

In early 2005, after learning about the Qaeda meeting, the military developed a plan for a small Navy Seals unit to parachute into Pakistan to carry out a quick operation, former officials said.

But as the operation moved up the military chain of command, officials said, various planners bulked up the force’s size to provide security for the Special Operations forces.

“The whole thing turned into the invasion of Pakistan,” said the former senior intelligence official involved in the planning. Still, he said he thought the mission was worth the risk. “We were frustrated because we wanted to take a shot,” he said. (Once again, this is a problem for this administration because...?)

Several former officials interviewed said the operation was not the only occasion since the Sept. 11 attacks that plans were developed to use a large American military force in Pakistan. It is unclear whether any of those missions have been executed.

Some of the military and intelligence officials familiar with the 2005 events say it showed a rift between operators in the field and a military bureaucracy that has still not effectively adapted to hunt for global terrorists, moving too cautiously to use Special Operations troops against terrorist targets.

That criticism has echoes of the risk aversion that the officials said pervaded efforts against Al Qaeda during the Clinton administration, when missions to use American troops to capture or kill Mr. bin Laden in Afghanistan were never executed because they were considered too perilous, risked killing civilians or were based on inadequate intelligence. Rather than sending in ground troops, the Clinton White House instead chose to fire cruise missiles in what became failed attempts to kill Mr. bin Laden and his deputies — a tactic Mr. Bush criticized shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Since then, the C.I.A. has launched missiles from Predator aircraft in the tribal areas several times, with varying degrees of success. Intelligence officials say they believe that in January 2006, an airstrike narrowly missed killing Mr. Zawahri, who hours earlier had attended a dinner in Damadola, a Pakistani village.

General Musharraf cast his lot with the Bush administration in the hunt for Al Qaeda after the 2001 attacks, and he has periodically ordered Pakistan’s military to conduct counterterrorism missions in the tribal areas, provoking fierce resistance there. But in recent months he has pulled back, prompting Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney to issue stern warnings in private that he risked losing American aid if he did not step up efforts against Al Qaeda, senior administration officials have said.

Officials said that mid-2005 was a period when they were gathering good intelligence about Al Qaeda’s leaders in Pakistan’s tribal areas. By the next year, however, the White House had become frustrated by the lack of progress in the hunt for Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri.

In early 2006, President Bush ordered a “surge” of dozens of C.I.A. agents to Pakistan, hoping that an influx of intelligence operatives would lead to better information, officials said. But that has brought the United States no closer to locating Al Qaeda’s top two leaders. The latest message from them came this week, in a new tape in which Mr. Zawahri urged Iraqis and Muslims around the world to show more support for Islamist insurgents in Iraq.

In his recently published memoir, George J. Tenet, the former C.I.A. director, said the intelligence about Mr. bin Laden’s whereabouts during the Clinton years was similarly sparse. The information was usually only at the “50-60% confidence level,” he wrote, not sufficient to justify American military action.

“As much as we all wanted Bin Ladin dead, the use of force by a superpower requires information, discipline, and time,” Mr. Tenet wrote. “We rarely had the information in sufficient quantities or the time to evaluate and act on it.”

A lot of issues were covered in this article - al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri, General Musharraf, our relationship to Pakistan...

...a word search for the words "Iraq" and "Sadaam Hussein" only got 2 hits:

The latest message from them came this week, in a new tape in which Mr. Zawahri urged Iraqis and Muslims around the world to show more support for Islamist insurgents in Iraq.

By comparisson, there were 17 occurences of the word "Pakistan".

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:09 PM
Well, the following takes place in 2005, so it's hard to see how they could manufacture some connection to Clinton...so probably not.

It would be rather bad for us to be found operating covertly in Pakistan, now wouldn't it...

As for a sequel, isn't that the one that the Clinton's almost kept from having aired, and Disney announced they will not release the show on DVD?

Clinton <>= free speech!

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 01:12 PM
It would be rather bad for us to be found operating covertly in Pakistan, now wouldn't it...


Maybe if you had bothered to read the article, you'd realize we ARE operating covertly in Pakistan. (it's kinda what the CIA is all about, dontchaknow)

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:28 PM
Maybe if you had bothered to read the article, you'd realize we ARE operating covertly in Pakistan. (it's kinda what the CIA is all about, dontchaknow)
I didn't say we weren't, I said "to be found."

Key point:

The operation size had grown rather large. Too many feet on the gound to complete the mission.

In the case of president Clinton's opportunities to get Bin Laden, none were so risky.

And yes, the CIA does such things. They blend in with the people, or pose as commercial agents of one sort or another. A few hundred special forces are kinda hard to miss!

Wasn't this incident already reported some time back? Slow news days? Does the NY Times have to repeat bad stuff of slow days?

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 01:28 PM
"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror." - President Bush*

*does not apply to Pakistan

boutons_
07-08-2007, 01:31 PM
" only at the “50-60% confidence level,” "

Well, that's more than enough for dubya/dickhead/rummy to invade Iraq.

No yellowcake,
no aluminum tubes,
no mobile weapons labs,
no WMD
no Saddam-al Quaida/terrorism link
no Saddam-WTC link

"hey, so let's invade Iraq!"

(... so we can imperialistically grab that cheap, high-quality Iraqi oil.)

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:32 PM
"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror." - President Bush*

*does not apply to Pakistan
Are you suggesting if a country doesn't do 100% our will, they are against us?

They do allow us to small operations without making a deal of it. They do need to maintain a certain degree of face among their own people too you know.

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 01:32 PM
I didn't say we weren't, I said "to be found."

Key point:

The operation size had grown rather large. Too many feet on the gound to complete the mission.

In the case of president Clinton's opportunities to get Bin Laden, none were so risky.

And yes, the CIA does such things. They blend in with the people, or pose as commercial agents of one sort or another. A few hundred special forces are kinda hard to miss!

Wasn't this incident already reported some time back? Slow news days? Does the NY Times have to repeat bad stuff of slow days?
If it involves hundreds of military troops, and requires the permission of President Musharraf, it's not a "covert" op - it's a overt military action...and since when has this Administration shied away from unilateral military action?

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:33 PM
" only at the “50-60% confidence level,” "

Well, that's more than enough for dubya/dickhead/rummy to invade Iraq.

No yellowcake,
no aluminum tubes,
no mobile weapons labs,
no WMD
no Saddam-al Quaida/terrorism link
no Saddam-WTC link

"hey, so let's invade Iraq!"

(... so we can imperialistically grab that cheap, high-quality Iraqi oil.)
Is ther a technician in the house?

Anyone know how to fix a broken recond?

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:35 PM
If it involves hundreds of military troops, and requires the permission of President Musharraf, it's not a "covert" op - it's a overt military action...
So we agree on that point


and since when has this Administration shied away from unilateral military action?
When it is against an allie!

Stop and think a bit.

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 01:37 PM
When it is against an allie!

Stop and think a bit.
Iraq under Saddam Hussein used to be our ally...

http://www.iraqtimeline.com/graphics/saddamandrumsfeld.jpg

...stop and think about that for a bit.

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 01:47 PM
Iraq under Saddam Hussein used to be our ally...

...stop and think about that for a bit.
Things change and they did.

President Clintons policy for Iraq went to regime change in I think 1998.

Consider our attack just completing the terms of UN resolution 1441, and president Clinton's policy.

Also, don't forget Iraq invading Kuwait and the Gulf War...

Things change.

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 01:58 PM
Things change and they did.

President Clintons policy for Iraq went to regime change in I think 1998.
President Bush's policy shifted to countering global terrorism in 2001, I think.

I say "I think", because the lion's share of our foreign policy since then has revolved around occupying Iraq, not hunting down terrorists known to be residing in Pakistan.


Consider our attack just completing the terms of UN resolution 1441, and president Clinton's policy.

I spy, with my little eyes, a future GOP talking point, when discussing the Iraq fiasco - "Well, Clinton was the one who got us started into this mess!" :lol

Poor, poor Pwesident Bush...he just HAD to follow Clinton's policy, he didn't have the power to set his own policies and agendas.

Wild Cobra
07-08-2007, 02:44 PM
President Bush's policy shifted to countering global terrorism in 2001, I think.

I say "I think", because the lion's share of our foreign policy since then has revolved around occupying Iraq, not hunting down terrorists known to be residing in Pakistan.

There have been several times we did something inside Pakistan, and other places. We simply have most of our forces in Iraq.



I spy, with my little eyes, a future GOP talking point, when discussing the Iraq fiasco - "Well, Clinton was the one who got us started into this mess!" :lol

That wasn't the point. Go ahead, twist my words.

Peple like to convienenltly forget what democrats said while president Clinton was in office.



Poor, poor Pwesident Bush...he just HAD to follow Clinton's policy, he didn't have the power to set his own policies and agendas.

My god. How lame of a thought.

PixelPusher
07-08-2007, 03:09 PM
There have been several times we did something inside Pakistan, and other places. We simply have most of our forces in Iraq.
Exactly.


That wasn't the point. Go ahead, twist my words.

Peple like to convienenltly forget what democrats said while president Clinton was in office.
Bill Clinton said lots of stuff (he loved the sound of his own voice). Did he say we should invade and occupy Iraq?


My god. How lame of a thought.
Yes, it is lame to imply that Bush had no choice but to follow through on his predecessor's foreign policy agenda.

Ocotillo
07-09-2007, 06:50 PM
Rumsfeld was probably right to make the decision he made.........

That being said, the hypocrisy lies with the right wing shills that screamed about Clinton not authorizing similar opportunities that could have had terrible repurcussions if pulled off, or worse if attempted and failed.

exstatic
07-09-2007, 06:55 PM
Musharraf isn't an ally. I'd characterize him as a reluctant neutral. He allows us just enough leeway and information to keep us from throwing everything behind India.

Ocotillo
07-09-2007, 06:59 PM
Musharraf isn't an ally. I'd characterize him as a reluctant neutral. He allows us just enough leeway and information to keep us from throwing everything behind India.

True. His days are numbered as well. The extremists in his country eventually are going to get a lucky shot and then all hell's going to break loose there and odds are, muslim extremists will have access to between 35 and 90 nukes.