Ocotillo
07-09-2007, 10:40 PM
Democrats took back the House in 2006 and named the first woman Speaker in American history. While the rules of the House allow Pelosi to pretty much get what she wants passed for legislation, there is a roadblock that she has no control over.
In the Senate, Harry Reid is a Majority Leader without a majority. The margin in the Senate is officially 50-49-1 with Lieberman, the "independent" siding with the Democrats. Nice theory but Judas Lieberman remains bitter over the Democrats in Connecticut rejecting him in favor of Ned Lamont. Of course, Lieberman went on to run as an independent with much financial help from the Republicans who turned their back on their nominee. The Republican money was well spent. Lieberman remains a thorn in the side of almost all Democrats with his potificating about bi-partisanship, blind support of the Iraq war and refusal to hold the Bush administration accountable for any shortcomings. Always quick to criticize a Democrat, Joe Lieberman's love for things dear to Republicans is only exceeded by his love for a television camera.
Complicating matters further for Reid is shortly into the year, Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota was felled by a stroke and continues to rehab and is unable to actively participate in Senate business giving Reid a 48-49 disadvantage in dealing with the Republicans. Further complicating Reid's ability to accomplish any meaningful legislation, Senate rules allow the minority quite a bit of power that the minority lacks in the House. First, to overcome a presidential veto, the Senate needs a 2/3rds majority to override the veto. In today's political climate, that is just shy of impossible. Second, fillibuster rules allow a minority of more than 40 Senators to effectively kill or cripple any legislation the majority may want.
Moderate Republicans are non-existent in today's Congress for the most part. Developing any sort of a working alliance with them is at best, slim to none because they don't truly exist. Some in the press term Senators such as Collins and Snowe of Maine as moderates yet, they vote with the President overwhelmingly on almost all key issues. Afraid of being challenged from the right within their own party in a primary, these "moderates" dutifully vote as Mitch McConnell instructs them to (and Bill Frist before him).
With that in mind, 2008 not only is important because of the race for the White House but taking true control of the Senate is at stake as well. 33 seats will be up for grabs in 2008, well at least there will be elections held. How many are truly possible to switch parties?
The easiest pickings for the Democrats should be "Blue" areas of the country which currently have Republican Senators. New England, the Pacific coast and upper Midwest are the areas that are prime. Vunerable Senators are:
Maine: Susan Collins is popular in her home state but her state has a very unfavorable opinion of the President. Tom Allen a popular Democratic Congressman will be her opponent and will hang Bush around her neck the whole race. This is a seat the Democrats need to take if they want to grow a majority in the Senate.
New Hampshire: John Sununu is the Republican incumbent and has the same woes as Collins does in Maine and he is less popular than Collins. Look for the Dems to take this one.
Minnesota: Incumbent Norm Coleman had a lower fund raising quarter than Al Franken. Bush sinks the GOP here Franken or not.
Oregon: Gordon Smith is already trying to distance himself from Bush but has a record of support of the President that will haunt him. Smith's best chance is if the Dems do not come up with a viable candidate.
Colorado: Increasingly Blue Colorado will likely send Mark Udall to replace Wayne Allard in '08.
A sweep of the aforementioned races would give the Democrats a 55-44-1 advantage assuming no incumbents lose. Where might they lose a seat?
South Dakota: Tim Johnson is fairly popular in his home state but is still recovering from a stroke. South Dakota is still a very Red state. Don't be suprised if the GOP steal one here. This is their best shot.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu did not do herself any favors during the Katrina disaster. She has the advantages of incumbency but is the second most vulnerable Democrat.
Lose those two seats and even with a sweep of the Blue/Purple states, the advantage slips to 53-46-1. That leaves the Dems only slightly better than they are now. They must challenge in state's where they are currently not favored and hope the momentum from 2006 continues. The best states to challenge in would be:
New Mexico: Pete Domenici is touched by the Justice Department scandal and must be feeling heat regarding the Bush surge policy as he has recently spoke out about the need for a change in strategy in Iraq. A tough race to be sure but New Mexico is a swing state, Domenici is showing signs of age (76) and Iraq will continue to be a problem for him and other GOPers.
Nebraska: Chuck Hagel is the incumbent. He may get a challenge from the right within his own party. Scott Kleeb who lost a close House race in '06 may challenge but won't have a chance. The Democrats only real chance is if Hagel steps down and former Senator Bob Kerrey runs as it is rumored he might.
Virginia: John Warner is very popular in his home state of Virginia. He has said he is running for re-election despite being 80 years old. Former Viriginia Governor Mark Warner (no relations) rivals his popularity and would win against any other Republican in the state. If it's a Warner/Warner race, it will be as tight as the Webb/Allen '06 race.
Alaska: Ted Stevens will be 85 years old election day 2008 and is currently embroiled in a scandal that may be his undoing. If he gets out of the race, the Republicans will likely win anyway. The Dems best hope is find a viable candidate and hope the scandal drags on and Stevens becomes '08's Conrad Burns.
North Carolina: Liddy Dole will be 72 on election day. She ran an ineffective stint as the NRSC chair. Anyway you look at it this will be an uphill race for the Democrats as it is a Red state. The Dems need to run a viable candidate just to divert money to this race to keep it out of other races.
Wyoming: Both seats in the state will be having elections due to the untimely death of Senator Thomas. If the popular Governor runs for the Thomas seat, the Democrats have a shot although they will likely lose the Governor's mansion.
Bottom line: I predict the Dems will pick up seven seats and lose one seat for a net pick up of six seats. Lieberman will be dumped from the caucus for 55-45 advantage. Fillibusters will remain a threat but with a Democratic president, Reid's job will get a bit easier.
It's way too early to really know what is going to happen in '08 but I believe a big part of all the attention being given to the upcoming election is due to people's desire for Bush to be gone.
In the Senate, Harry Reid is a Majority Leader without a majority. The margin in the Senate is officially 50-49-1 with Lieberman, the "independent" siding with the Democrats. Nice theory but Judas Lieberman remains bitter over the Democrats in Connecticut rejecting him in favor of Ned Lamont. Of course, Lieberman went on to run as an independent with much financial help from the Republicans who turned their back on their nominee. The Republican money was well spent. Lieberman remains a thorn in the side of almost all Democrats with his potificating about bi-partisanship, blind support of the Iraq war and refusal to hold the Bush administration accountable for any shortcomings. Always quick to criticize a Democrat, Joe Lieberman's love for things dear to Republicans is only exceeded by his love for a television camera.
Complicating matters further for Reid is shortly into the year, Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota was felled by a stroke and continues to rehab and is unable to actively participate in Senate business giving Reid a 48-49 disadvantage in dealing with the Republicans. Further complicating Reid's ability to accomplish any meaningful legislation, Senate rules allow the minority quite a bit of power that the minority lacks in the House. First, to overcome a presidential veto, the Senate needs a 2/3rds majority to override the veto. In today's political climate, that is just shy of impossible. Second, fillibuster rules allow a minority of more than 40 Senators to effectively kill or cripple any legislation the majority may want.
Moderate Republicans are non-existent in today's Congress for the most part. Developing any sort of a working alliance with them is at best, slim to none because they don't truly exist. Some in the press term Senators such as Collins and Snowe of Maine as moderates yet, they vote with the President overwhelmingly on almost all key issues. Afraid of being challenged from the right within their own party in a primary, these "moderates" dutifully vote as Mitch McConnell instructs them to (and Bill Frist before him).
With that in mind, 2008 not only is important because of the race for the White House but taking true control of the Senate is at stake as well. 33 seats will be up for grabs in 2008, well at least there will be elections held. How many are truly possible to switch parties?
The easiest pickings for the Democrats should be "Blue" areas of the country which currently have Republican Senators. New England, the Pacific coast and upper Midwest are the areas that are prime. Vunerable Senators are:
Maine: Susan Collins is popular in her home state but her state has a very unfavorable opinion of the President. Tom Allen a popular Democratic Congressman will be her opponent and will hang Bush around her neck the whole race. This is a seat the Democrats need to take if they want to grow a majority in the Senate.
New Hampshire: John Sununu is the Republican incumbent and has the same woes as Collins does in Maine and he is less popular than Collins. Look for the Dems to take this one.
Minnesota: Incumbent Norm Coleman had a lower fund raising quarter than Al Franken. Bush sinks the GOP here Franken or not.
Oregon: Gordon Smith is already trying to distance himself from Bush but has a record of support of the President that will haunt him. Smith's best chance is if the Dems do not come up with a viable candidate.
Colorado: Increasingly Blue Colorado will likely send Mark Udall to replace Wayne Allard in '08.
A sweep of the aforementioned races would give the Democrats a 55-44-1 advantage assuming no incumbents lose. Where might they lose a seat?
South Dakota: Tim Johnson is fairly popular in his home state but is still recovering from a stroke. South Dakota is still a very Red state. Don't be suprised if the GOP steal one here. This is their best shot.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu did not do herself any favors during the Katrina disaster. She has the advantages of incumbency but is the second most vulnerable Democrat.
Lose those two seats and even with a sweep of the Blue/Purple states, the advantage slips to 53-46-1. That leaves the Dems only slightly better than they are now. They must challenge in state's where they are currently not favored and hope the momentum from 2006 continues. The best states to challenge in would be:
New Mexico: Pete Domenici is touched by the Justice Department scandal and must be feeling heat regarding the Bush surge policy as he has recently spoke out about the need for a change in strategy in Iraq. A tough race to be sure but New Mexico is a swing state, Domenici is showing signs of age (76) and Iraq will continue to be a problem for him and other GOPers.
Nebraska: Chuck Hagel is the incumbent. He may get a challenge from the right within his own party. Scott Kleeb who lost a close House race in '06 may challenge but won't have a chance. The Democrats only real chance is if Hagel steps down and former Senator Bob Kerrey runs as it is rumored he might.
Virginia: John Warner is very popular in his home state of Virginia. He has said he is running for re-election despite being 80 years old. Former Viriginia Governor Mark Warner (no relations) rivals his popularity and would win against any other Republican in the state. If it's a Warner/Warner race, it will be as tight as the Webb/Allen '06 race.
Alaska: Ted Stevens will be 85 years old election day 2008 and is currently embroiled in a scandal that may be his undoing. If he gets out of the race, the Republicans will likely win anyway. The Dems best hope is find a viable candidate and hope the scandal drags on and Stevens becomes '08's Conrad Burns.
North Carolina: Liddy Dole will be 72 on election day. She ran an ineffective stint as the NRSC chair. Anyway you look at it this will be an uphill race for the Democrats as it is a Red state. The Dems need to run a viable candidate just to divert money to this race to keep it out of other races.
Wyoming: Both seats in the state will be having elections due to the untimely death of Senator Thomas. If the popular Governor runs for the Thomas seat, the Democrats have a shot although they will likely lose the Governor's mansion.
Bottom line: I predict the Dems will pick up seven seats and lose one seat for a net pick up of six seats. Lieberman will be dumped from the caucus for 55-45 advantage. Fillibusters will remain a threat but with a Democratic president, Reid's job will get a bit easier.
It's way too early to really know what is going to happen in '08 but I believe a big part of all the attention being given to the upcoming election is due to people's desire for Bush to be gone.