Iraq Analysis By CIA

[MannyIsGod]

I'm suprised this hasn't been posted here, but I'm sure most of you have already read up on it.

Once again, a grim view on the outcome of the Iraq situation.

Look, quite honestly I want the United States to succeed because as much as failure would reaffirm what I've said, it's not what is in the best interests in peace.

That being said, I'm not sure what we can do to avoid this short of measures that Bush, or anyone else in the government for that matter, will accept.

I sincerely think the time has come to allow Iraq to become 3 countries. One for the Kurds, one for the Sunni, and another for the Shiates.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/12/07/iraq.cia/index.html

[exstatic]

The CIA is in a conspiracy against the Bush administration, Manny. Anyone who says anything other than "All is well" is in on the conspiracy, as well. Get with the program, Manny.

Everything is wonderfull, Iraq will emerge as the shining example of Middle East democracy after the elections, and Bin Laden will surrender, seeing no hope for his way of doing things.[/GOP]

[Guru of Nothing]

I sincerely think the time has come to allow Iraq to become 3 countries. One for the Kurds, one for the Sunni, and another for the Shiates.

Well heck, I am for this, BUT, how easy is it to divide the oil 3 ways?

[scott]

Well heck, I am for this, BUT, how easy is it to divide the oil 3 ways?

With the help of an atmospheric tower, simple distillation unit, and maybe the help of a hydrocracker... it's a piece of cake! Haliburton will be happy to assist in the transitioning process.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

You know, I thought about posting this, but I don't think it's that big a deal. For probably the better part of the year they've said that as the elections approach it's going to get worse.

Now that it is, it's supposed to spell gloom and doom? Hell, if anything we should be happy the CIA actually got it right ;)

In all seriousness, I have always liked the three countries idea. If you read "The Peace to End All Peace" it's a book about how the present day Mideast came to be (all of that area used to be one nation, err empire. After WWI the Brits and French (geez, can they do anything right?) split up that whole region into what we have today (save the Israel/Palestinian areas).

We had to bail them out in two world wars along with a few other places here and there, what's one more time?

The only dilemma I see is that you'll have Iraq trying to assimilate Shi'ite country into its border, you'll have Syria and the Ba'athists trying to grab the Sunni region, which aren't real problems (probably will contribute to more peace in the region than a united Iraq).

The problem is going to be you've got the Kurds in the north, basically surrounded by people who hate them (Sunnis to the south and west, Shi'ites to the south and east, and Turkey to the north).

That whole situation could get very ugly.

[MannyIsGod]

sigh.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Here's a different take, but seeings it says that there's hope in Iraq, I'm sure it'll be discounted.




Sunni Arab antigovernment and al Qaeda gunmen now make no secret of their desire to trigger a religious and ethnic based civil war in Iraq. Attacks on Kurds (who are not Arabs) and Shia Arabs (who practice the form of Islam prevalent in neighboring Iran) are increasing. ... There are two reasons why the civil war has not broken out yet. First, the Sunni Arab gunmen represent a minority in the Sunni Arab community. ... One thing that makes the current situation different than the Lebanese civil war of 1975-90, is that the Sunni Arabs are not united to fight anyone. The antigovernment forces represent several factions, and many other larger factions want no part of a civil war.

This illuminates the second reason for no civil war; the Sunni Arabs are vastly outnumbered and likely to get quickly smashed. This is made worse by the fact that 80 percent of the population (the Kurds and Shia Arabs) would like to see the Sunni Arabs "punished" for generations of tyranny. Most Sunni Arabs understand this, but the minority who continue to murder and molest Shia Arabs and Kurds spend most of their efforts on terrorizing their fellow Sunni Arabs.


Article is continued on at length.


As the powerful, mainly Sunni tribe led by Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawar's uncle rallied behind an electoral bloc formed by leaders of the long oppressed Shi'ite majority, Yawar urged people not to identify the insurgency with the Sunni cause. Speaking after a particularly bloody few days in which more than 70 people have been killed, Yawar said: "Right now, we're faced with the armies of darkness, who have no objective but to undermine the political process and incite civil war in Iraq.

"But I want to assure the whole world that this will never, ever happen... After all these sacrifices, there's no way on earth that we will let it go in vain"


http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/

[JoeChalupa]

Hey, we'll be out of there by 2009!

[MannyIsGod]

AHF, You can find viewpoints for both sides of the arguement, but the fact is that majority of the professional analysis being done is not favorable for a peacful Iraq in the near future.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Manny,

My point is that anyone with a brain could tell you the terrorists were going to cause a lot more problems as the elections got closer, so what's the big deal?

Everyone said the shit was going to hit the fan in Afghanistan during elections too, and instead they had a great turnout and all we got from Osama was a video where he pouted about no attacks on election day, and the Taliban losing its grasp.

Now, I do think there will be attacks in Iraq, I'd imagine even a few polling stations will be attacked via car bomb/RPG/machine gun assaults.

I think a lot of folks need to pay more attention to what the Ayatollah (Sistani) is saying, the guy basically has his finger on the pulse of about 80% of Iraq.

[Nbadan]

If there is a election in January, most Iraqis are likely to vote for their ethnic candidate. There could be multiple Shiite candidates, but clearly the one who can get the backing of Al-Sistani and the rest of the big Mullahs has a big leg up on the rest of the Presidential candidates. Maybe this is why Al-Sistani was there to intervene in Najif before the Marines turned it into Falluja. Meanwhile, Al-Sadr's clan will be representated in the new government. The Shiite clearly have the most to lose if democracy fails in Iraq.

Look for the Kurds to seek autonomy after the election. They are only miles from the rest of Iraq, but a world away as far as on the way to a post-war recovery. The way they'll see it is, why should they suffer to rebuild the rest of Iraq? Look for the U.S. to try and intervene on the part of Iraq unity.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Iraq's interim president says he sees no reason why the insurgency should not be vanquished within a year and Iraq well on its way toward becoming a constitutional democracy. "We're not fighting a Viet Cong, which has principles and popular support," says Ghazi al-Yawar. "We are fighting Saddam loyalists. ... The whole Iraqi population is against them. I'm sick and tired of them."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/12/08/iraq.interim.president/index.html