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Spurs Brazil
07-12-2007, 04:28 AM
Mike Finger: Page 2 - Spurs choose static formula

Web Posted: 07/11/2007 11:56 PM CDT


San Antonio Express-News

Somewhere around 500 B.C., the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said "nothing endures but change." Twenty-four centuries later, Winston Churchill noted, "To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often." And then in 1993, Matthew McConaughey (as modern-day intellectual David Wooderson in "Dazed and Confused") marveled at his own time-related discovery about high schoolers.
"I get older," he said, "they stay the same age."

Now, it's doubtful that any of those deep thinkers considered themselves Spurs fans. But if they did, chances are all three of them would be a little concerned about the team's uneventful offseason.

In case you haven't been keeping up with the comings and goings on the Spurs' roster this summer, fear not. You haven't missed much. All 12 players who suited up for the NBA Finals will be back. And barring a trade of Jackie Butler or a dismissal of James White, so will two guys who were inactive for the playoffs. The only Spur who definitely won't be back to try to help defend the title is 15th-man Melvin Ely.

That, my friends, is stability. The U.S. Supreme Court has a higher turnover rate. Given the Spurs' current veteran-laden roster, the patients on heart-and-lung transplant waiting lists have a better chance of getting their wish than the poor saps trying to earn a silver-and-black jersey.

The trick is figuring out whether this is a good thing for the Spurs. On one hand, it's difficult to argue with the idea of keeping intact the group that just swept its way through the NBA Finals. Familiarity and consistency can be huge benefits in today's league.

On the other, the Spurs were the oldest team in the league last season, and as Wooderson would point out, they're getting older, and the rest of the league is staying the same age. Change, at least some form of it, would seem to be the only way to stay ahead of pursuers such as Phoenix, Dallas and Utah.

In an era of constantly fluctuating rosters, what the Spurs are attempting to do — win a championship with the same team that won it the year before — is quite rare. But it's not entirely unprecedented.

During the past 13 seasons — a period in which unrestricted free agency took off — several other championship teams have resisted the urge to change. For instance, the top 10 scorers for the 1996-97 Bulls had played on Chicago's title team in 1995-96. That worked out all right — that season the Bulls won their second of three consecutive championships.

But there also have been disappointments. After the Lakers won their third-straight title in 2001-02, they tried to make it four with essentially the same team. Led by nine scorers who all had been in Los Angeles the year before, the 2002-03 Lakers won eight fewer games in the regular season and lost to the Spurs in the second round of the playoffs. A similar fate met the Miami Heat this past season, when they used a near-identical roster to their 2005-06 championship team but wound up losing in the first round (Dwyane Wade's injury didn't help).

In total, 13 NBA Finals teams since 1994 have played the next season without adding a new player that ranked in the top six on the team in scoring. Of those 13, four made it back to the Finals (the 1996-97 Bulls and 2001-02 Lakers won; the 1997-98 Jazz and 2002-03 Nets lost). Three lost in the conference finals, four lost in the second round, and two (the 2006-07 Heat and 2006-07 Mavericks) were knocked out in the first round.

What does all this mean?

For the Spurs, it's tough to tell. All they can do is hope to prove Heraclitus wrong.

For a year, at least.


* * *
IF IT ISN'T BROKE . . .
Since 1994, 13 teams that made the NBA Finals failed to add (or chose not to add) a player that ranked among the team's top six in scoring the next season. Here's how those teams fared:

Team -- Top-scoring newcomer (team rank) -- Win differential from previous season -- Postseason finish

1994-95 Knicks -- Monty Williams (11th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in second round

1995-96 Magic -- Joe Wolf (9th) -- plus-3 -- Lost in conference finals

1996-97 Bulls -- Robert Parish (11th) -- minus-3 -- Won NBA Finals

1997-98 Jazz -- Jacque Vaughn (12th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in NBA Finals

1999 Jazz -- Thurl Bailey (8th) -- minus-1* -- Lost in second round

1999-2000 Knicks -- John Wallace (8th) -- plus-6* -- Lost in conference finals

2001-02 Lakers -- Lindsey Hunter (7th) -- plus-2 -- Won NBA Finals

2002-03 Nets -- Rodney Rogers (7th) -- minus-3 -- Lost in NBA Finals

2003-04 Nets -- Zoran Planinic (10th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in second round

2005-06 Pistons -- Maurice Evans (7th) -- plus+10 -- Lost in conference finals

2006-07 Heat -- Eddie Jones (11th) -- minus-8 -- Lost in first round

2006-07 Mavericks -- Devean George (7th) -- plus-7 Lost in first round

(*Victory totals for the lockout-shortened 1999 season were adjusted by percentage to that of an 82-game season.)


http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA071207.02C.COLfinger.page2.30c2287.html

zeleni
07-12-2007, 04:34 AM
Thats not really true. Spurs can change 2nd squad with the 3rd squad (with Manu obviously staying as a starter-by-quality) and still repeat. Most of the playoff games were won by the starters.

spurscenter
07-12-2007, 05:43 AM
I think the spurs will indeed make a trade by deadline if they stay intact unlike like year.

Russ
07-12-2007, 08:41 AM
The Spurs problem with repeating seems more to be losing contributors from their title teams. Duncan in 2000 (due to injury). David Robinson, Stephen Jackson and Steve Kerr in 2004. Pop said the '04 team was so changed they couldn't even be called defending champs.

Ed Helicopter Jones
07-12-2007, 10:52 AM
It's kind of a no win scenario for the Spurs. Had they revamped people would be questioning those moves.

I still think we'll likely get to the '08 post season and have three new faces.

Oh, Gee!!
07-12-2007, 10:55 AM
if it ain't broke, don't fix it

Marcus Bryant
07-12-2007, 11:01 AM
I'd like to see the Spurs be a little more proactive this summer at the 2 and 3. Right now the only player under contract in the swingman rotation past the 2007-08 season is Ginobili. If you assume Bowen is a 'Spur for life', then you have two guys.

Darkwaters
07-12-2007, 11:06 AM
if it ain't broke, don't fix it


So Beno is...acceptable?

Marcus Bryant
07-12-2007, 11:30 AM
Complacency kills.

coopdogg3
07-12-2007, 11:31 AM
Curiosity killed the cat.

TwoHandJam
07-12-2007, 11:39 AM
An ounce of prevention....

Switchman
07-12-2007, 11:47 AM
The Spurs lucked out last season and were able to get themselves a ring. I think this year will catch up to them and they will see that they need to get younger and more athletic.

Marcus Bryant
07-12-2007, 11:52 AM
Next season they could very well have 3 spots to fill in the 2/3 rotation. Manu is usually at his best coming off the bench and hasn't topped 30 minutes per night in his career. Bowen averaged 30 minutes a game last season, his lowest season average since his first season in SA. There will be close to 40 minutes a night that the Spurs will need to fill. If they have an opportunity to address that this summer, they should.

Aggie Hoopsfan
07-12-2007, 12:01 PM
if it ain't broke, don't fix it

Howabout some foresight to the future?

After this season we have what, five people under contract? You don't want to be reloading an entire roster around the big three when Tim is on the downside of his career when you have a system that takes players at least a season to pick up.

Better to bring in some replacements/youth this year to learn from the vets and learn the system and then have them ready to go next year.

Larry Brown's overreliance on veterans is starting to rub off on Pop.

Oh, Gee!!
07-12-2007, 12:01 PM
the sky is falling!!!

Marcus Bryant
07-12-2007, 12:02 PM
So they'll re-up Bowen, Finley, and Barry next summer?

Oh, Gee!!
07-12-2007, 12:03 PM
and get scola and the brazilian kid, stop worrying so much

MoSpur
07-12-2007, 12:18 PM
I would have liked a new backup PG instead of resigning Vaughn and sticking w/Beno. I would have liked the Spurs to draft a small forward to backup Bowen. Oh well, the off-season is just getting started. A lot can still happen. They can trade away guys like Barry, Beno, Butler, and Scola.

Marcus Bryant
07-12-2007, 12:50 PM
So White and Williams will replace Finley and Barry. Grand.

Ed Helicopter Jones
07-12-2007, 01:12 PM
IF IT ISN'T BROKE . . .
Since 1994, 13 teams that made the NBA Finals failed to add (or chose not to add) a player that ranked among the team's top six in scoring the next season. Here's how those teams fared:

Team -- Top-scoring newcomer (team rank) -- Win differential from previous season -- Postseason finish

1994-95 Knicks -- Monty Williams (11th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in second round

1995-96 Magic -- Joe Wolf (9th) -- plus-3 -- Lost in conference finals

1996-97 Bulls -- Robert Parish (11th) -- minus-3 -- Won NBA Finals

1997-98 Jazz -- Jacque Vaughn (12th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in NBA Finals

1999 Jazz -- Thurl Bailey (8th) -- minus-1* -- Lost in second round

1999-2000 Knicks -- John Wallace (8th) -- plus-6* -- Lost in conference finals

2001-02 Lakers -- Lindsey Hunter (7th) -- plus-2 -- Won NBA Finals

2002-03 Nets -- Rodney Rogers (7th) -- minus-3 -- Lost in NBA Finals

2003-04 Nets -- Zoran Planinic (10th) -- minus-2 -- Lost in second round

2005-06 Pistons -- Maurice Evans (7th) -- plus+10 -- Lost in conference finals

2006-07 Heat -- Eddie Jones (11th) -- minus-8 -- Lost in first round

2006-07 Mavericks -- Devean George (7th) -- plus-7 Lost in first round

(*Victory totals for the lockout-shortened 1999 season were adjusted by percentage to that of an 82-game season.)

Of the three teams that stayed pat having won the title the year before, two of them went on to repeat. Only the Heat didn't manage a repeat, and that team was not going to repeat with an overthehill Shaq and an injured Dwayne Wade.

That list actually makes it look pretty favorable to hold your team together.

urunobili
07-12-2007, 02:40 PM
Get rid of a couple of players and bring in TALENT