Could We Be Headed The Way of The Celtics?

[Guajalote]

This is not a gloom and doom thread. And, I'm not recommending anything in particular. Just trying to take a long term look at the forest through the trees.

Once upon a time, the Celtics figured in the mix of every championship for about a decade. They had rebuilt their dynasty and their formidable combination of Bird/McHale/Parish virtually ensured them at the very least a long playoff run. Vets such as Dennis Johnson, Bill Walton, Quinn Buckner and M.L. Carr played key roles in helping them win.

But, this strategy began to fall apart because in order to win, the big three had to remain together, and the Celtics had no other major pieces in place to stay young and competitive. Soon, Bird's back, McHale's feet, and Parish's skills began to break down toward the late eighties. The Celts gradually watched themselves sink lower and lower in the playoffs brackets until eventually, the big three retired and left the Celts.

I know we haven't had a Len Bias-type tragedy (which is claimed to have doomed the franchise) and we haven't lost Tim Duncan to a longshot lottery loss to the Spurs, but I'm wondering, are we in the same boat as the Celtics? A core of three superb players with at least 5 (plus or minus) years left in them. A cast of "wily" vets to fill roles. No real pieces to offer in trade without breaking up our core.

With an excellent record every year and no shot at a high draft pick, how do we avoid the natural ebb and flow of success and avoid the same fate?

[z0sa]

perhaps we don't. this is our team's first real peak since their beginning; we're witnessing a magical moment in the franchise's history. However, every team goes through lulls. You just have to hope we have a good enough front office to make the right choices when rebuilding post Tim.

[Darkwaters]

I'm expecting a significant season-ending injury to Duncan in a couple of years that leads to the number one pick and the continued future of the franchise. It's just crazy enough to work too!

In all honesty though, after Duncan retires, Pop will retire as well and it will be time to rebuild. We'll probably be pretty mediocre for quite a while, but thats generally what happens.

[lotr1trekkie]

Free agency and the entrance of foreign players make it easier to rebuild than in the 80's. Lottery picks don't guarantee championships unless their names are Dave and Tim.

[celldweller]

As long as Danny Ainge isn't our GM, will be fine. :spin

[SAGambler]

Free agency and the entrance of foreign players make it easier to rebuild than in the 80's. Lottery picks don't guarantee championships unless their names are Dave and Tim.

Right. Things aren't even close to the way they were when the Celts were the big dogs. There is a much larger pool of talent to pull from.

I think we may see a couple of "lean" years, once Tim is gone. Especially if we lose Pop, Manu and possibly Tony about the same time.

But I think the "system" that is in place will take care of those problems if and when they arise. I think in a couple of years you will begin to see them bring in players who will go on to be the next set of Spurs. I figure Tim has at least 3 or 4 good years left, barring some major injury. There is plenty of time to get the "next" team in place and train them the Spurs way.

Never fear. The front office likes hoisting those trophies at the end of the year, just as much as the players do. I don't think they will jeopardize that. And I even look for the Spurs to be competitive, even during a couple of lean periods. They have built a tradition here, and they aren't going to just let it go.

[tiga]

SA FO will never allow this team to slowly die and keep going on the current big three untill they break... but I do see Popovich leaving when Duncan retires. That will be a sad day for San Antonio and Parker, who owes Pop a lot.

[Supergirl]

OH MY GOD.

Please tell me you didn't just start a thread worrying about "becoming like the Celtics" of the 80's, you know, that franchise that won 16 championships.

Should the Spurs come anywhere close to being the Celtics of 20 years ago, this would be a blessing. Hell, to have even won 4 championships is a blessing, and I suspect the Spurs will win at least 1-2 more before Duncan's done.

Will they be the champion forever and ever? No. Expecting them to be is ridiculous and impossible. Not to mention, boring.

They're the reigning NBA champions. They have the best player on the planet. He's only now reaching his peak. Enjoy the blessings while they last.

[mathbzh]

Hopefuly Tony will be in his prime when Tim and Gino will retired. He should still has a lot of value to help us rebuilding the Spurs (as a piece of the team or as a great trade asset). I am not to worried about the Spurs future.

[Spurminator]

Enjoy it while it lasts.

[mbass]

AS you all know, Duncan is very very special and someone like him comes along only about once in a decade. When Duncan retires how can one expect the Spurs to remain as champs - he is irreplaceable.

[Mark in Austin]

Give me a call when two Spurs players outside of the big three croak on us that are as important/talented as Bias and Lewis were to the Celtics. THEN worry about being the Celtics.

[ambchang]

The Celtics' demise have everything to do with poor FO management.
Every team goes through lean years after dominance (Lakers in the mid-90s, Bulls in the early part of the century, Houston in the late 90's early 00's, 6ers forever), the difference is that the good FOs can bounce back, while the bad ones get exposed (6ers, Celtics)

[SAGambler]

AS you all know, Duncan is very very special and someone like him comes along only about once in a decade. When Duncan retires how can one expect the Spurs to remain as champs - he is irreplaceable.


Absolutely not true. Anyone is replaceable. How can you possibly know from the world of talent coming up that there won't be another Tim Duncan around and that the Spurs won't find him? Or even another team find him.

While Duncan is probably the best player in the game today, remember records are made to be broken. Someone will be waiting in the wings somewhere to take over as "best player in the game".

I have been hearing for 50 some odd years about this guy or that guy in every sport is irreplaceable, yet when their time came to leave, they were replaced. And the sport went right on. And maybe even got better.

Just like some of the teams in the NBA in the 60s or 70s. Do you think those guys could compete at a high level against the talent that is out there now? Athletes today start specializing in a sport at a young age. They are given top notch coaches in junior high. Not like 50 years ago where the coach was probably also the math teacher or something and given the job of coach as a sideline. They train today. They specialize. They have all the modern technology to help make them better. By the time they make a pro team, they can pretty much play that sport blindfolded.

So yeah, as much as I will miss Duncan being here, I'm not foolish enough to think there will never be another one.

[RC's Boss]

We'll be okay as long as we have Beno here.

[urunobili]

Duncan will retire being 38 y/o with 8 rings... 4 more to come guys.. a three peat and 1 retirement party one!

[justanotherspursfan]

Absolutely not true. Anyone is replaceable. How can you possibly know from the world of talent coming up that there won't be another Tim Duncan around and that the Spurs won't find him? Or even another team find him.

While Duncan is probably the best player in the game today, remember records are made to be broken. Someone will be waiting in the wings somewhere to take over as "best player in the game".
Irreplaceable to the team is different from irreplaceable to the league. When Shaq was traded from the Lakers, the league moved right along, but the Lakers haven't remotely been the same. Sure, they're lining up new guys, but compared to Shaq, they suck.

When Duncan retires, the main thing that will change for the league is that other teams will breathe a sigh of relief and have one less giant obstacle on the road to the title. But for the Spurs, they won't remotely be the same again. They may be good again -- at some point in the distant future, they could conceivably even be better -- but they won't be the same.

Similarly, although the high points were eventually surpassed after getting Robinson and Duncan, the Spurs have never been the same team they were with Ice. Ginobili is a very good 2 -- though not in Gervin's league -- but his game is very different, and the team is built around different stars and a different style of play. Whoever the Spurs get after Tim retires will make this a very different team from the current one. In that sense, Tim really is irreplaceable.

[vander]

woah, all this thinking about the future got me wondering what kind of contract Duncan will demand after this one is up.
are we going to be paying him close to 30 million when he's 36? or will he be generous and take a smaller deal for the sake of the team?

[SRJ]

Please tell me you didn't just start a thread worrying about "becoming like the Celtics" of the 80's, you know, that franchise that won 16 championships.

We already have one more championship than the Celtics of the 1980's - they won titles in 1981, 1984, and 1986.

All three Pistons championships notwithstanding, titles are built around MVP caliber players (regular season MVPs, that is). This guarantees nothing of course, but just look at a roll call of the last 20 champions:

Duncan (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007)
Shaq (2000-02, 2006)
Jordan (1991-93, 1996-98)
Olajuwon (1994, 1995)
Magic (1988)

You absolutely need to have an elite (read: top 5, top 10) player on your roster to have a chance at a title. Once Tim's skill erodes or he retires, we're screwed - unless we get lottery lucky again.

It's not as though the Celtics have been cursed since 1986 - they just haven't a great player to build around since Bird declined and retired. Paul Pierce is a nice player, but it doesn't appear that he takes a lot of the load off his teammates. Duncan does. Shaq did - still does, sometimes. Jordan did, Olajuwon did. With elite players around, their teammates get a lot of open looks from the perimeter and more space to operate in. How many times did Duncan, due to the threat he poses down in the post, produce open threes for Bowen, Ginobili, Turkoglu, Stephen Jackson, Kerr, Steve Smith, Terry Porter, Jaren Jackson, and Mario Elie? How many times has Duncan found cutters out of double-teams? MVP types create these situations from the defensive attention they recieve.

If we go into a big title drought after Duncan's gone, it won't be shocking. It'll be shocking if we see another player with his impact on the game play in San Antonio soon. It was astoundingly lucky that we got Tim Duncan just eight years after David Robinson played his first game for the Spurs.

How do we avoid the same fate? We probably don't. But drafting foreign and letting those players hone their skills in other leagues is probably a better attempt than letting a young player rot on the bench behind vets trying to win a title.