Flooding FYI

[MannyIsGod]

Update...new NAM model this morning has US concerned. Model shows
near perpendicular flow (to the escarpment) in the lower levels by
late tonight with source region from the deep southwest Gulf. Combined
with dynamics aloft in the already Tropic-like atmosphere, have
raised probabilities tonight throughout the eastern half of the County Warning Area
and upped quantitative precipitation forecast amounts significantly along the Escarpment. Perpendicular
flow of 30 to 40 kts at the 925 mb level in this kind of environment
leads US to believe serious flood problems could develop along the
northeast southwest Escarpment from Austin/Georgetown area down to
San Antonio tonight. Updated forecasts and grids out soon.



To break it down what a perpendicular flow would mean is training cells because the escarpment would provide the maximum lift. They should update soon but its not good when they put up discussions like that.

[MannyIsGod]

fixed

[Summers]

And the googlefish translation says what? :lol Yeah, I'm actually a little concerned about the standing water all around our apartment here in San Marcos. I live on the bottom story. What a pain in the ass even an inch of water in the apartment would be.

[SpursWoman]

Well, I guess in the worst case scenario those in my neighborhood will be able to determine if Ryland really did lie, and their houses...and the only exit out of the neighborhood are in fact on a flood plain. :fro

I just don't see how any more rain for a while could possibly be good. Yeah, it's great to keep the utility bills down, but not if a lot of people could possibly lose their homes or even their lives because of it. It really needs to stop for a while. :(

[MannyIsGod]

I guess my breakdown wasn't that clear. :lol

If air is moving perpendicular to the escarpment then the ground is going to be providing a ton of life. When the air starts rising that fast in an atmosphere like this its almost like wringing out a soaked towel; you get a shitload of rain. The problem is also that since the main focus for the lift is a feature that doesn't move (the balcones escarpment) you get rain in the same spots over and over and over again. You get storms that just train over one spot. This isn't exactly the scenario we've seen before but it could lead to what has happend in the past. The people at the NWS sound pretty concerned and that isn't usually a good sign.

SW, its gone way past a good thing at this point. I can't ever remember a Summer that has been this wet. At this point it really is better for us to have to put up with hot days and not have this flood threat constantly over our heads.``

[Summers]

Well, I guess in the worst case scenario those in my neighborhood will be able to determine if Ryland really did lie, and their houses...and the only exit out of the neighborhood are in fact on a flood plain. :fro

I just don't see how any more rain for a while could possibly be good. Yeah, it's great to keep the utility bills down, but not if a lot of people could possibly lose their homes or even their lives because of it. It really needs to stop for a while. :(

On the one hand, I assume the aquafer is filling up. But the ground is absolutely saturated. I'm surprised the rivers haven't flooded yet.

[AlamoSpursFan]

There's a low water crossing at County Road 320 and 181 in Wilson County. I've been crossing it for 10 years and I've only once seen water across the road. That was in 2002 and it only got to about 3 inches deep over the road. Perfectly crossable. Yesterday, that crossing looked like the freaking Snake River. Guys with jacked up 4X4 pickups wouldn't even try it.

That area is sand hills and thirsty oak trees and it always drains very well. There's been so much rain, it looks like a miniature Atchafalaya Swamp. Enough already!

[SpursWoman]

From weather.com:

Tormented Texas


Unfortunately there is no relief in sight for water-logged Texas.

Tropical moisture flowing northwestward through the western Gulf of Mexico arrives in the Lone Star State Thursday night and Friday bringing more heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Areas from San Antonio to Houston and north to Dallas are in the path of this next threat of heavy rainfall. Additional rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible through Saturday morning, which would increase the flooding already occurring.

Other showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the South through the weekend, but they will be the more typical afternoon and evening summer variety of storms.

Temperatures across the region should run near average to the east and up to 10 degrees cooler than average over Texas.

[desflood]

We were forced to add flood insurance to our homeowner's policy because FEMA has declared about three feet in the back right corner of the yard to be a flood zone. Now I'm almost glad we have the damn coverage :lol

[AlamoSpursFan]

I thought you couldn't get flood insurance if you lived in a flood plain?

[PakiDan]

I'm only happy when it rains.

[MoSpur]

More rain means possible flooding?? No way!

[T Park]

The freakin edwards aquifer oughtta be at all time highs.

If it is, I apologize, I haven't been in town for almost 2 months.

[easjer]

Yeah, they are getting concerned out here in H-town because of the training. Last time we had training effects and near constant rain was Tropical Storm Allison - and that was a fucking nightmare. The only thing in our favor right now is these 2 days breaks we keep getting (had them all throughout this Seattle like summer) - it allows some drying out of the area directly around you, gives the bayous a chance to drain. . . but the rivers are running high. Not so much a concern for us (we live near Braes Bayou, but have around a 1% chance of flooding), but . . . this is not good.

And from what I can tell, it's worse out there in SA.

[Flea]

I guess my breakdown wasn't that clear. :lol

If air is moving perpendicular to the escarpment then the ground is going to be providing a ton of life. When the air starts rising that fast in an atmosphere like this its almost like wringing out a soaked towel; you get a shitload of rain. The problem is also that since the main focus for the lift is a feature that doesn't move (the balcones escarpment) you get rain in the same spots over and over and over again. You get storms that just train over one spot. This isn't exactly the scenario we've seen before but it could lead to what has happend in the past. The people at the NWS sound pretty concerned and that isn't usually a good sign.

SW, its gone way past a good thing at this point. I can't ever remember a Summer that has been this wet. At this point it really is better for us to have to put up with hot days and not have this flood threat constantly over our heads.``



Much better. I read the first post and thought, huh?
Thanks for the update.