samikeyp
08-08-2007, 12:45 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2934697&univLogin02=stateChanged&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dneyer_r ob%26id%3d2934697%26univLogin02%3dstateChanged
OK. He's done it. So who's next?
When Hank Aaron retired in 1976 with 755 home runs, the No. 2 home-run hitter among active players was Willie McCovey, with 465 homers ... and McCovey was nearly 40 years old. So Aaron's record looked safe for quite some time, and it was; it would be another 26 years before another player (Barry Bonds, of course) would reach 600 home runs, let alone 755.
Babe Ruth's record lasted roughly 40 years, and Aaron's roughly 30 years ... but what about Bonds' record? How long will it last? To even begin to answer that question, we have to answer two others:
1. How many homers will Bonds hit before he quits?
and
2. Which current players have established a chance to surpass Bonds' theoretical record?
CAREER ASSESSMENTS
How many home runs will A-Rod hit? What about Albert Pujols, or Ryan Howard, or Adam Dunn? What are the odds of ANY major league player catching Barry Bonds, once he's through hitting home runs? Try the Bill James' Career Assessments tool, formerly known as the Favorite Toy, and see for yourself.
I've seen only one career projection for Bonds. The Bill James Handbook 2007 lists projected career totals for all players, and the projection for Bonds is 884 home runs.
Yeah, that seems like a lot. My guess is that the method doesn't really know how to handle a 43-year-old superstar who doesn't seem to be slowing down much. I just have a hard time imagining that once Bonds breaks the record, he has another 130 homers left in him -- though, of course, he's surprised us before. And I'm sure he'd love to top Sadaharu Oh's Japanese mark of 868.
Let's be a bit more conservative, though. Let's assume that Bonds plays for a couple of more seasons after this one, but has some problems staying healthy and finishes his career with 800 home runs on the nose. That's a truly round number, and perhaps Bonds will choose to finish with a flourish.
So who among our current stars might hit 801 home runs? To answer that question, we turn to James' "Career Assessments" method. This used to be known as the "Favorite Toy," a name I prefer and will continue to use. Essentially, the method determines how many full years of established production a player has left (based on his age), measures that production (based on the previous three seasons), and arrives at the probability that the player will reach a particular number. It might be 4,000 hits (entering this season, Derek Jeter had a 6-percent chance) or 1,000 stolen bases (12-percent chance for Carl Crawford) or 801 home runs.
I have made a slight adjustment in the formula, to account for the possibility that historical aging patterns no longer apply. Essentially, I merely added another half-season to the expected number of remaining seasons in the player's career. I've made this adjustment because Bill James, when he devised the method some years ago, had no reason to believe that a 43-year-old hitter would someday lead the majors in OPS, or that a 45-year-old power pitcher would someday earn roughly $1 million per start. Yet those things are happening, right now. It seems to me that the old rules do not apply. Or that, at the very least, we might make one small allowance to account for the distinct possibility.
With all that in mind, the (adjusted) Favorite Toy identifies six active players with an established chance of hitting 801 home runs.
6. KEN GRIFFEY JR.: 2 percent
Age: 37 | Career HRs: 589 | 2007 HRs: 26 | Profile
Surprising to see him here at all, considering all the injuries, right? But Griffey's done wonders for his projections this season, by staying healthy and regularly hitting the ball over the fence. Before this season, his established chance of hitting 700 homers was roughly 20 percent; today it's nearly 55 percent. Or rather, it will be nearly 55 percent if he stays healthy and productive for the rest of this season.
Projected Total: 705
5. ANDRUW JONES: 6 percent
Age: 30 | Career HRs: 363 | 2007 HRs: 21 | Profile
Until 2005, Jones was not particularly known for his power. But he hit 26 homers before his 21st birthday, and afterward averaged roughly 35 per season until his breakthrough in '05. His stock is down this season, thanks to that .217 batting average. This probably is just a blip, though; next season he'll hit .260 with 40 homers, and he'll be back on track for the Hall of Fame.
Projected Total: 614
4. RYAN HOWARD: 7 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 114 | 2007 HRs: 32 | Profile
Obviously, Howard's established himself as one of the top young power hitters in the game. The problem here is that he's not particularly young. He's 10 days younger than Adam Dunn, and two months older than Albert Pujols. Which isn't in itself a handicap. What's a handicap is Howard's late start, as he didn't break into the Phillies' lineup until he was 25, in the middle of 2005. This does have a negative impact on his established level -- because 2005 represents one-sixth of that level -- but even if we give him credit for the 16 homers he hit in the minors that season, his chance of hitting 801 homers moves up only three points, to 10 percent. He just got started too late to keep up with all the big-time power hitters who came up when they were 19 or 20, as so many have.
Projected Total: 509
3. ADAM DUNN: 10 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 228 | 2007 HRs: 30 | Profile
Dunn comes out as the No. 3 home-run hitter in the majors, among active players? According to this method, he does. Since Opening Day of 2004, Dunn has hit 156 home runs. Only David Ortiz (161) and Pujols (160) have hit more. So why doesn't Dunn's name come up in Hall of Fame discussions? Because he's a "Three True Outcomes" guy. With Dunn, everything's a homer or a strikeout or a walk, and only one of those (the first one) is appreciated by the cognoscenti. But even if we assume that 500 homers is not a magic number (it's not), and neither is 600 (jury's still out), what about 700? Dunn's established a 24-percent chance of hitting 700 home runs. The key for Dunn always will be his batting average. As long as he can hit .240, he'll have a job. But considering that his career average is just .247, we might reasonably guess there are just too many .220 seasons in Dunn's future.
Projected Total: 578
2. ALBERT PUJOLS: 13 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 274 | 2007 HRs: 24 | Profile
Because of his slow start this season, not to mention his non-appearance in the All-Star Game, it's easy to forget that Pujols is the best non-Bonds hitter in the National League. What's really hurting him here is that slow start. We've got him finishing this season with 35 homers, which would be the fewest of his brilliant career. Pujols simply has to re-establish himself as a consistent 40-homers-per-season hitter. Of course, given his history, he might do that in the next few months.
Projected Total: 585
1. ALEX RODRIGUEZ: 46 percent
Age: 32 | Career HRs: 500 | 2007 HRs: 36 | Profile
The difference between the No. 2 man and the No. 1 says a lot about the No. 1 man. If that doesn't blow you away, there's this: Rodriguez has established a 21-percent chance of hitting 900 home runs -- more than Oh, even -- and a 7-percent chance of hitting 1,000 home runs.
Projected Total: 790
Granted, the (adjusted) Favorite Toy probably gets less reliable the further we get from the conceivable, and it's not easy to conceive a baseball player hitting 1,000 homers. But it's fun to think about, isn't it?
OK. He's done it. So who's next?
When Hank Aaron retired in 1976 with 755 home runs, the No. 2 home-run hitter among active players was Willie McCovey, with 465 homers ... and McCovey was nearly 40 years old. So Aaron's record looked safe for quite some time, and it was; it would be another 26 years before another player (Barry Bonds, of course) would reach 600 home runs, let alone 755.
Babe Ruth's record lasted roughly 40 years, and Aaron's roughly 30 years ... but what about Bonds' record? How long will it last? To even begin to answer that question, we have to answer two others:
1. How many homers will Bonds hit before he quits?
and
2. Which current players have established a chance to surpass Bonds' theoretical record?
CAREER ASSESSMENTS
How many home runs will A-Rod hit? What about Albert Pujols, or Ryan Howard, or Adam Dunn? What are the odds of ANY major league player catching Barry Bonds, once he's through hitting home runs? Try the Bill James' Career Assessments tool, formerly known as the Favorite Toy, and see for yourself.
I've seen only one career projection for Bonds. The Bill James Handbook 2007 lists projected career totals for all players, and the projection for Bonds is 884 home runs.
Yeah, that seems like a lot. My guess is that the method doesn't really know how to handle a 43-year-old superstar who doesn't seem to be slowing down much. I just have a hard time imagining that once Bonds breaks the record, he has another 130 homers left in him -- though, of course, he's surprised us before. And I'm sure he'd love to top Sadaharu Oh's Japanese mark of 868.
Let's be a bit more conservative, though. Let's assume that Bonds plays for a couple of more seasons after this one, but has some problems staying healthy and finishes his career with 800 home runs on the nose. That's a truly round number, and perhaps Bonds will choose to finish with a flourish.
So who among our current stars might hit 801 home runs? To answer that question, we turn to James' "Career Assessments" method. This used to be known as the "Favorite Toy," a name I prefer and will continue to use. Essentially, the method determines how many full years of established production a player has left (based on his age), measures that production (based on the previous three seasons), and arrives at the probability that the player will reach a particular number. It might be 4,000 hits (entering this season, Derek Jeter had a 6-percent chance) or 1,000 stolen bases (12-percent chance for Carl Crawford) or 801 home runs.
I have made a slight adjustment in the formula, to account for the possibility that historical aging patterns no longer apply. Essentially, I merely added another half-season to the expected number of remaining seasons in the player's career. I've made this adjustment because Bill James, when he devised the method some years ago, had no reason to believe that a 43-year-old hitter would someday lead the majors in OPS, or that a 45-year-old power pitcher would someday earn roughly $1 million per start. Yet those things are happening, right now. It seems to me that the old rules do not apply. Or that, at the very least, we might make one small allowance to account for the distinct possibility.
With all that in mind, the (adjusted) Favorite Toy identifies six active players with an established chance of hitting 801 home runs.
6. KEN GRIFFEY JR.: 2 percent
Age: 37 | Career HRs: 589 | 2007 HRs: 26 | Profile
Surprising to see him here at all, considering all the injuries, right? But Griffey's done wonders for his projections this season, by staying healthy and regularly hitting the ball over the fence. Before this season, his established chance of hitting 700 homers was roughly 20 percent; today it's nearly 55 percent. Or rather, it will be nearly 55 percent if he stays healthy and productive for the rest of this season.
Projected Total: 705
5. ANDRUW JONES: 6 percent
Age: 30 | Career HRs: 363 | 2007 HRs: 21 | Profile
Until 2005, Jones was not particularly known for his power. But he hit 26 homers before his 21st birthday, and afterward averaged roughly 35 per season until his breakthrough in '05. His stock is down this season, thanks to that .217 batting average. This probably is just a blip, though; next season he'll hit .260 with 40 homers, and he'll be back on track for the Hall of Fame.
Projected Total: 614
4. RYAN HOWARD: 7 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 114 | 2007 HRs: 32 | Profile
Obviously, Howard's established himself as one of the top young power hitters in the game. The problem here is that he's not particularly young. He's 10 days younger than Adam Dunn, and two months older than Albert Pujols. Which isn't in itself a handicap. What's a handicap is Howard's late start, as he didn't break into the Phillies' lineup until he was 25, in the middle of 2005. This does have a negative impact on his established level -- because 2005 represents one-sixth of that level -- but even if we give him credit for the 16 homers he hit in the minors that season, his chance of hitting 801 homers moves up only three points, to 10 percent. He just got started too late to keep up with all the big-time power hitters who came up when they were 19 or 20, as so many have.
Projected Total: 509
3. ADAM DUNN: 10 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 228 | 2007 HRs: 30 | Profile
Dunn comes out as the No. 3 home-run hitter in the majors, among active players? According to this method, he does. Since Opening Day of 2004, Dunn has hit 156 home runs. Only David Ortiz (161) and Pujols (160) have hit more. So why doesn't Dunn's name come up in Hall of Fame discussions? Because he's a "Three True Outcomes" guy. With Dunn, everything's a homer or a strikeout or a walk, and only one of those (the first one) is appreciated by the cognoscenti. But even if we assume that 500 homers is not a magic number (it's not), and neither is 600 (jury's still out), what about 700? Dunn's established a 24-percent chance of hitting 700 home runs. The key for Dunn always will be his batting average. As long as he can hit .240, he'll have a job. But considering that his career average is just .247, we might reasonably guess there are just too many .220 seasons in Dunn's future.
Projected Total: 578
2. ALBERT PUJOLS: 13 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 274 | 2007 HRs: 24 | Profile
Because of his slow start this season, not to mention his non-appearance in the All-Star Game, it's easy to forget that Pujols is the best non-Bonds hitter in the National League. What's really hurting him here is that slow start. We've got him finishing this season with 35 homers, which would be the fewest of his brilliant career. Pujols simply has to re-establish himself as a consistent 40-homers-per-season hitter. Of course, given his history, he might do that in the next few months.
Projected Total: 585
1. ALEX RODRIGUEZ: 46 percent
Age: 32 | Career HRs: 500 | 2007 HRs: 36 | Profile
The difference between the No. 2 man and the No. 1 says a lot about the No. 1 man. If that doesn't blow you away, there's this: Rodriguez has established a 21-percent chance of hitting 900 home runs -- more than Oh, even -- and a 7-percent chance of hitting 1,000 home runs.
Projected Total: 790
Granted, the (adjusted) Favorite Toy probably gets less reliable the further we get from the conceivable, and it's not easy to conceive a baseball player hitting 1,000 homers. But it's fun to think about, isn't it?