View Full Version : Tropical storm headed for Texas...
CosmicCowboy
08-13-2007, 05:10 PM
And we could get major rain out of it by later this week...
Potential for tropical cyclone to impact the TX coast.
Changes to forecast from Wednesday through Friday are required based on latest HPC and NHC thinking and 12Z model guidance. At 300pm visible images along with radar from Cancun, Mexico clearly show a well defined low level circulation about 100 miles N of the Yucatan coast. Upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is moving W toward the S TX coast with strong southerly shear across the top of 91L. Shear should weaken over the next 12 -24 hours as the upper low moves westward. Steering of 91L then comes under the influence of large scale high over the southern plains.
Current model guidance including 12Z run of GFDL takes the system into the S TX coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi which is also supported by the GFS and NAM . Will disregard 68kts by the SHIPS and follow closer with the 50kts depicted on the DSIPS guidance suggesting a landfalling tropical storm late Wednesday along the lower TX coast.
Will need to make significant changes to wind and seas forecast and rainfall/QPF forecast starting Wednesday. At this time core of adverse weather should impact areas from Matagorda Bay southward.
Seas: Expect coastal winds to shift to the ENE Tuesday and begin to increase by Wednesday as Gulf pressures lower. Wave Watch III guidance builds offshore swells into the 8-12 foot range starting early Wednesday as tropical storm force winds spread into the outer coastal waters. Will increase from flat seas of 1-2 feet into 6-8 feet coast to 12 feet offshore. Increasing swells and winds will result in tidal run-up along the beaches starting late Tuesday. Will increase tides into the 1.0-2.0 foot above normal range ( Brazoria County N ) and into the 2.0-2.5 foot range ( Brazoria County S ). Could see tides up to 4.0 feet above normal around Matagorda Bay by late Wednesday with overwash of protection dunes.
Winds: Will increase winds into the 20-30mph range out of the E to ENE for Wednesday. May be close to northern extent of TS force wind radii over the Matagorda Bay area late Wednesday. Squalls and rainbands will likely produce gust at or above 40mph along the coast.
Rain Chances: Will up chances to 50% by Wednesday and may need to go even higher especially W of I-45 based on forecast track of center and deep surge of 2.50+ PWS. NAM and GFS show most of the heavy rains N and E of the center of the system…so even a landfall in S TX would support heavy rains and squalls northward up the TX coast. HPC progs show 6.4 inch bullseye near the landfall locations with widespread 2-4 inches contours up the TX coast into Matagorda Bay .
Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Thanks for the heads-up Manny...
Avitus1
08-13-2007, 06:31 PM
After all the heat in Central Texas I welcome the rain.
CubanMustGo
08-13-2007, 07:45 PM
Well, that's the problem. The high pressure system that is dominating TX has to move far enough east to let this move north. The models I've seen are pretty consistently sending the storm into the valley.
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200791_model.gif
Given where this is starting it's probably not going to cover a lot of area. That said we all know how unpredictable these things are and it's worth keeping an eye on.
scott
08-13-2007, 09:50 PM
An Invest != a Tropical Storm
CubanMustGo
08-13-2007, 10:05 PM
An Invest != a Tropical Storm
True but irrelevant since the first post in this thread is talking about the Invest which has a significant chance of turning into a tropical storm.
ashbeeigh
08-13-2007, 10:12 PM
I'm praying the high moves somewhat. I'm sick of the sun. Bring on the rain...not like early in the summer..but a little bit.
BigBeezie
08-14-2007, 07:34 AM
I'm ready for some rain too... I hate the heat.
MannyIsGod
08-14-2007, 11:18 AM
Looking at the satellite imagery this morning it looks like they'll probably name this a TD by this afternoon and it'll probably be a TS before it makes landfall. There is clear low level circulation but the storms are far from the center.
BacktoBasics
08-14-2007, 11:24 AM
People are already shitting bricks here in Corpus.
CubanMustGo
08-14-2007, 12:26 PM
Ain't never gonna get to Corpus. Models have already shifted south from what they predicted yesterday - with the exception of the GFDL which is just ludicrously off already from a 2AM forecast. Coincidentally the GFDL is the only one bringing it north of the border with Mexico.
MannyIsGod
08-14-2007, 02:30 PM
Models at this stage of development are iffy at best not to mention Corpus would be well within an error margin.
BacktoBasics
08-14-2007, 02:42 PM
I could care less its not going to be big enough to make a significant difference. Hard to believe the stir that it already caused.
Everybody stand by to PANIC!!!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICS ARE FINALLY GETTING ACTIVE...WITH TROPICAL STORM DEAN
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS WAS FOR A TD TO
MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS
CHRISTI AND MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD DEL RIO...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
RUN OF THE NAM12 IS CONCERNING...SHOWING A TS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
CORPUS AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR
THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS A LOCK...WHETHER A WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL...OR SIMPLY A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INLAND. IT IS THE PLACEMENT OF THOSE HEAVIER
RAINS AND HIGH-END AMOUNTS THAT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. OUR FORECAST
WILL BE A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL HOLD-OFF
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN FAVOR OF ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO AIDE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE NHC/TPC HAS
NOT FOUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER YET...AND THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRESENTS LIKE A CLASSIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OUR FORECAST WILL BEGIN A MULTI-DAY TREND BACK TOWARD
CLIMO CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWS TS DEAN MOVING WNW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF AND INTENSIFYING AT 180H. DEAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS WELL AND MAY AFFECT OUR WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ashbeeigh
08-14-2007, 07:09 PM
Earlier this evening I heard the flight in couldn't find a center of circulation to name it or anything. It was a low pressure system, but not defined as tropical in nture since it didn't have the full center of circulation. Nonetheless let's get ready for some rain. Whether it hits directly for the 35 cooridor or not, Sa-town should get some rain out of it.
Clutch20
08-14-2007, 09:45 PM
I rode out a tough one, Camille was it, maybe during the 70's in Kingsville Texas. I was a student at Texas A&I and decided to ride the storm out in my mobile home.
When you're young sometimes you don't really plan well like you ought to.
That damned trailer home did a weird Texas 2 step about every 5 minutes all night long.
Never again!
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-14-2007, 10:22 PM
Everybody Panic!
Everybody Panic!
I hope I bought enough batteries and water today.
SequSpur
08-15-2007, 12:16 AM
ah shit.. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bullshit fucking up my vacation
BeerIsGood!
08-15-2007, 12:51 AM
ah shit.. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bullshit fucking up my vacation
Bring me some fish from the White Sands restaurant in Port Isabelle on your way back.
BeerIsGood!
08-15-2007, 12:51 AM
Then go the long way through McAllen and stop to get me a botana plate, and run to Royal China on Nolana and 10th to get me a plate of Sesame Chicken.
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-15-2007, 01:20 AM
ah shit.. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bullshit fucking up my vacation
http://www.babycare-direct.co.uk/floaties_armbands_large.jpg
CubanMustGo
08-15-2007, 09:31 AM
Latest models are bringing the storm further north:
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200705_5day.gif
Winds are not expected to exceed tropical storm force before landfall.
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200705_windprob34.gif
MannyIsGod
08-15-2007, 09:51 AM
Coming together nicely today. Probably a TS sometime this afternoon. Doubt it makes ot to hurrican strength, but not entirely impossible given the good environment its in. Either way not going to be a major storm but will bring more rain to South Texas.
Bigzax
08-15-2007, 09:56 AM
i did it! i washed my car on monday! fuck the heat! :cheer
Shelly
08-15-2007, 10:59 AM
She's been upgraded to a Tropical Storm. Say hello to Erin!
slimjoe
08-15-2007, 12:41 PM
ah shit.. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bullshit fucking up my vacation
I bet the waves are killer right now though. Damn I miss the Island. I wish I was there.
Das Texan
08-15-2007, 01:03 PM
First we bitch about too much rain.
Now we bitch about too much sun.
Regardless, this looks to be hitting somewhere in Willacy or Kennedy Counties, maybe northern Cameron County, as long as its north of Brownsville it wont do dick for damage save for a few cows.
Its probably going to be a mild tropical storm at best anyway. Big fucking deal.
slimjoe
08-15-2007, 01:07 PM
First we bitch about too much rain.
Now we bitch about too much sun.
Regardless, this looks to be hitting somewhere in Willacy or Kennedy Counties, maybe northern Cameron County, as long as its north of Brownsville it wont do dick for damage save for a few cows.
Its probably going to be a mild tropical storm at best anyway. Big fucking deal.
Yeah My family lives other there. They didn't seem alarmed. They are kind of used to it. I remember driving during one with Atrain. We were picking up signs that had blown away in the street.
degenerate_gambler
08-15-2007, 01:08 PM
Its probably going to be a mild tropical storm at best anyway. Big fucking deal.
Tell that to the TV weather people who insist on hyping the shit out of this and every other 'big storm'.
slimjoe
08-15-2007, 01:15 PM
Tell that to the TV weather people who insist on hyping the shit out of this and every other 'big storm'.
Yeah, I hate when they do that. Remember Houston two years ago. That was total chaos.
degenerate_gambler
08-15-2007, 01:33 PM
Yeah, I hate when they do that. Remember Houston two years ago. That was total chaos.
It's worse in the winter, especially if the temp look like it'll get close to freezing and there's moisture in the air.....they always have to say the "S" word when my kids are watching.
I used to be the bad guy that bum them out by telling the the weather people were full of it and it wouldnt snow here and you will have school. Now that there getting older, they're understanding what old dad was talking about.
CubanMustGo
08-15-2007, 02:13 PM
Come up to Dallas, where not only do they over-hype everything, but they PREEMPT HOURS OF REGULAR PROGRAMMING to do it.
"There were snow flurries reported by a nearsighted thirteen-year old in Decatur .... let's go LIVE to our reporter Joe Blow, Joe, what's it like?"
"Well, Matt, it's colder than shit here but there's no sign of snow."
"Thanks, Joe, we'll come back to you. Next up, we have reports of a bridge up in NoNutz county that has begun to freeze over ..."
Das Texan
08-15-2007, 02:15 PM
ahh dallas.
they are jackasses up there.
ashbeeigh
08-15-2007, 04:22 PM
"There were snow flurries reported by a nearsighted thirteen-year old in Decatur .... let's go LIVE to our reporter Joe Blow, Joe, what's it like?"
:lmao I had some friends get lost in Decatur last week while we were in Bridgeport for camp.
But as for Erin...it looked pretty gloomy earlier while I was out with my family.
Dear God
Please make The Weather Channel send Stephaine Abrams to report onsite in a tight t-shirt and then have it rain buckets on her while she's live.
Really really cold rain.....
http://images.radcity.net/5162/1166589.jpg
slimjoe
08-15-2007, 05:45 PM
Dear God
Please make The Weather Channel send Stephaine Abrams to report onsite in a tight t-shirt and then have it rain buckets on her while she's live.
Really really cold rain.....
http://images.radcity.net/5162/1166589.jpg
Nice, who is that?
Shelly
08-15-2007, 06:03 PM
Nice, who is that?
dude, it's in the quote!
Oscar DeLa
08-15-2007, 06:36 PM
ah shit.. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bullshit fucking up my vacation
I dont know what
it
is
but
thats funny
boutons_
08-16-2007, 05:59 AM
at 05:30 Thurs, already 6" between Corpus and Victoria.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ewx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
click left menu "rainfall 1-hour and storm total"
August 16, 2007
Hurricane Dean Forms in the Atlantic
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 6:33 a.m. ET
CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas (AP) -- Bands of rain from Tropical Storm Erin fell along Texas' coast early Thursday, while Hurricane Dean formed in the open Atlantic, becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Dean headed toward the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean and could close in on the islands by Friday, forecasters said.
In flood-weary southern Texas, some vacationers packed up while others vowed to wait out Erin and its torrential rainfall.
The storm was not expected to gain hurricane strength before making landfall Thursday morning, which was why some said they wouldn't abandon long-planned trips to Texas' coast.
''It's not a hurricane. I ain't worried. If they say don't evacuate, I'm not going to worry about it,'' said Matt Sandlin of Amarillo, who was on a beach near Corpus Christi with his family on Wednesday as the wind whipped up and the horizon darkened with clouds. ''Unless I see a shark or whale go flying by, I'm good.''
Gov. Rick Perry (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/rick_perry/index.html?inline=nyt-per) ordered emergency vehicles and personnel, including National Guard troops, to the Harlingen and Corpus Christi areas.
''Because storms have saturated much of our state this summer, many communities in this storm's projected path are at high risk of dangerous flash flooding,'' Perry said in a statement.
Early Thursday, the National Weather Service (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_weather_service/index.html?inline=nyt-org) issued flash flood warnings for six counties along the Texas coast near the anticipated landfall of the storm.
Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos, the top elected official for the state's southernmost county, urged residents to evacuate trailers and mobile homes on South Padre Island.
Corpus Christi hadn't asked for any evacuations, said Ted Nelson, a city spokesman, and was keeping only a handful of people at the emergency operations center overnight.
''We're just advising folks to review their own personal emergency plans and look around your yard and remove any loose items,'' he said.
Nelson said that with 3 1/2 months left in the Atlantic hurricane season, the incoming storm was ''a nice little wake-up call'' for people to make sure they are prepared for more severe weather.
Some weren't taking any chances.
''We came out to get as much beach time in as possible,'' said John Cullison of the Dallas area, who was vacationing with his family and planned to leave southern Texas Thursday instead of Friday. ''After the hurricanes (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/h/hurricanes_and_tropical_storms/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) from a few years ago, you have to take it kind of serious.''
Erin formed late Tuesday as the fifth depression of the Atlantic hurricane season and was upgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday when its maximum sustained speed hit 40 mph. The threshold for tropical storm status is 39 mph.
At 5 a.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 55 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and about 180 miles southwest of Galveston, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Its top wind speed remained at 40 mph.
Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at around 12 mph and was expected to continue following that track for at least 24 hours.
The storm was likely too close to land to gain enough wind speed to become a hurricane, which would require sustained winds of at least 74 mph, said National Weather Service forecaster Tony Abbott in Brownsville. But the center said late Wednesday it could strengthen slightly before landfall.
Isolated tornadoes were possible along the middle Texas Gulf Coast on Thursday, the center said.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said early Thursday they were beginning to see an eye form at Dean's center.
In the Caribbean, hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia by their local governments as Hurricane Dean approached. Hurricane watches were in effect for the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe and its dependencies, Saba and St. Eustaties.
Weather service of Barbados issued tropical storm warning for Barbados, and tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and St. Maarten. A warning means conditions expected within 24 hours, a watch means 36 hours.
At 5 a.m. EDT, Dean was centered about 485 miles east of Barbados and about 590 miles east of Martinique, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving west near 24 mph, and was expected to continue the same path for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph, above the threshold for a hurricane. Dean is a Category 1 hurricane and is expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours, forecasters said.
Out in the Gulf, Shell Oil Co. evacuated 188 people from offshore facilities in the path of Tropical Storm Erin.
A tropical storm warning was posted for the Texas coast from San Luis Pass, about 50 miles southwest of Houston, southward to Port Mansfield, while the warning was canceled for the tip of the southern Texas coast. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours. A tropical storm watch for northern Mexico was canceled.
Three to 8 inches of rain was possible along the middle Texas coast, the hurricane center said, with a storm surge of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels north of where the center makes landfall.
The U.S. Census Bureau (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/census_bureau/index.html?inline=nyt-org) said Wednesday that 4 million people could feel the storm's effects.
A series of storms this summer poured record rainfall across Texas and parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, with one July storm dropping 17 inches of rain in 24 hours. Flooding was widespread across all three states. It brought Texas out of drought status for the first time in more than a decade.
At least 16 deaths have been blamed on flooding since mid-June.
In the Pacific, Flossie was downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, a day after sideswiping Hawaii's Big Island with only intermittent rain and moderate winds.
Hurricane specialists expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season -- June 1 to Nov. 30 --to be busier than average, with as many as 16 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening into hurricanes. Ten tropical storms developed in the Atlantic last year, but only two made landfall in the United States.
ATRAIN
08-16-2007, 07:16 AM
I bet the waves are killer right now though. Damn I miss the Island. I wish I was there.
hahahah you would stay at home and wouldnt even go check...... P***Y
ATRAIN
08-16-2007, 07:18 AM
man that shit is coming straight for me here at work :(
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 07:18 AM
Dean is bad. The way the upper air stuff is in place, Dean is bad. This isn't going to go north, its probably going to stay on the same path the entire way.
Kinda like Erin did when it was a tropical wave then finally a depression and storm. Still over a week away but chances are high this thing comes into the Gulf.
01Snake
08-16-2007, 07:29 AM
DAMN!! Better buy a boat!
http://www.mysanantonio.com/multimedia/webcams/superdoppler/images/doppler_lg.gif
Das Texan
08-16-2007, 09:25 AM
Ya Dean is not going to be pretty, no matter where it hits.
Erin will be like a sneeze.
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-16-2007, 11:41 AM
ˇEverybody Panic!
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-16-2007, 01:25 PM
I read this headline over at FARK and laughed my ass off.
Hurricane Dean announces that its gonna gain strength, then it's going to the Gulf of Mexico, and then Texas, and then Georgia, and then Florida, and then all the way to the White House Yeeeeaaaaaaarrrgh
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 02:10 PM
Roof just busted a leak right on my laptop. Fuck you, Erin.
I can't get the .png image to display, but this oughta get Manny's attention (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs2.png)
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 02:42 PM
Access Forbidden?
5-8 inches in parts of Bexar county in the past few hours. Thats a fuck ton of rain.
Access Forbidden?
5-8 inches in parts of Bexar county in the past few hours. Thats a fuck ton of rain.
Huh? Wonder why it didn't link.
Anyhow, try here; http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ and select Frame 2 of the GFS ensemble track.
midgetonadonkey
08-16-2007, 02:49 PM
It's raining gatcho bad.
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 02:51 PM
Normally i'd say really unrealiable, and it is, but there is NOTHING out there to change teh way the upper air currents are lined up. That storm really does have what basically amounts to a straight shot at the western gulf coast with some hot water on the way.
Mexico is going to get fucked and Texas may as well. One week. One week and you're going to be reading/hearing about it.
Melmart1
08-16-2007, 02:52 PM
Weren't there people in the political forum talking shit about how Texas was getting prepared with National Guard and shit? Better safe than sorry, I say. This storm may not be catastrophic but it sure looks worse than people thought.
boutons_
08-16-2007, 03:16 PM
N & NE SA is on the low side of the rain.
Zombie
08-16-2007, 03:18 PM
Closing in on 5 inches of rain here on the SE Side!
SpursWoman
08-16-2007, 03:26 PM
N & NE SA is on he low side of the rain.
I don't know how that's possible. I work right behind the airport and it's been pouring non-stop since I walked in the door this morning. If there was any kind of a break or let-up at all, it must have been when I sneezed.
:drunk
SpursWoman
08-16-2007, 03:30 PM
oops
Sunshine
08-16-2007, 03:45 PM
I'm at Huebner and I-10, and like where SW is, it's been raining since I got here with no reprieve. And it doesn't look like it's going to get much better.
Shelly
08-16-2007, 03:56 PM
We've already received 7" at my house. I've got a river going through my yard.
LuvBones
08-16-2007, 03:57 PM
:( too many loved ones on the road right now.... :(
boutons_
08-16-2007, 04:03 PM
correction, we're now getting hammered at 16:00 at Starcrest/410
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 04:04 PM
Stinson has 8 inches of rain today.
It has been a nonstop drizzle over here(281 N of 1604) with a few strong showers.
ashbeeigh
08-16-2007, 04:07 PM
Uh-oh. It's time for the non-stop news coverage from every news station in town.
Shelly
08-16-2007, 04:09 PM
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=5yjfitf)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=4ldd9ac)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=6b9mwzb)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=4u9w9ed)
MannyIsGod
08-16-2007, 04:11 PM
Time to go tubing!!!
Sonia_TX
08-16-2007, 04:18 PM
Some pictures my mom took down the street... This is the same area that Christy Barajas drowned a few years back. She lived across the street from me. Her parents are trying to get this area fixed because the flooding is HORRIBLE!
4 FEET!!
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/saratoddla/Picture009small.jpg
Yes, that's supposed to be a ditch. You can't even see it!
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/saratoddla/Picture007small.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/saratoddla/Picture006small.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/saratoddla/Picture011Small.jpg
CrazyOne
08-16-2007, 04:23 PM
What's going through my backyard right now is about midway between those pics and Shelly's video...
CrazyOne
08-16-2007, 04:30 PM
Here's a pic..
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v291/gnewland/IM003139.jpg
CosmicCowboy
08-16-2007, 04:38 PM
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=5yjfitf)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=4ldd9ac)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=6b9mwzb)
View My Video (http://video.tinypic.com/player.php?v=4u9w9ed)
*sigh* Talk about a letdown! LOL
Shelly
08-16-2007, 04:40 PM
*sigh* Talk about a letdown! LOL
:lmao
Das Texan
08-16-2007, 04:43 PM
Uh-oh. It's time for the non-stop news coverage from every news station in town.
but at least its not hot!
Shelly
08-16-2007, 05:02 PM
10" of rain here.
4" and change in Stone Oak.
The 1"+ we got about 5:30 made for a great time running in the rain with the kids though.
Neighbors think I've lost it.
leemajors
08-16-2007, 07:12 PM
wow, it really didn't rain more than an inch or two in rockport last night. we were a bit worried when driving back from padre, but it didn't do much damage where we were.
RashoFan
08-16-2007, 08:19 PM
Most of you guys already know this but for those of you that don't...Even though most of the rain has passed on by...WE will still get a lot of streams and creeks flooding while the rain goes through the hill country. Please be careful everyone.
Most of you guys already know this but for those of you that don't...Even though most of the rain has passed on by...WE will still get a lot of streams and creeks flooding while the rain goes through the hill country. Please be careful everyone.
Just me, or did anyone else after reading that have a mental picture of Rashofan in her infamous suspenders pic making a swift water rescue?
I'll be in my bunk.
RashoFan
08-16-2007, 08:29 PM
Darling...for swift water rescue, I wear a wet suit....bunker gear is heavy when wet.....
...why do I think I will regret making that statement?
Switchman
08-16-2007, 11:26 PM
All this rain has screwed up the fishing.
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-16-2007, 11:27 PM
Darling...for swift water rescue, I wear a wet suit....bunker gear is heavy when wet.....
...why do I think I will regret making that statement?
Because you know us so well?
/Looks up low-water crossings near RashoFan's home base.
Darling...for swift water rescue, I wear a wet suit....bunker gear is heavy when wet.....
...why do I think I will regret making that statement?
Wait...what?
/Back to the bunk...
Clutch20
08-16-2007, 11:41 PM
5:00 am - I removed 5 puppies and mama dog from their pen to the decking because of rain starting to fall.
7:30 - drove the wife to work but took an alternate route because traffic on 281 N @I35 was not moving due to rain related accidents
9:00 - went to work, cut it short because after a couple of hours 3 inches of rain had fallen and AM radio was describing horrible scenes around the city
10:00 - got a frantic cell call from my younger son saying that his pickup truck stalled out at an intersection. I gave him the basic 3 step coping strats and then said I was on my way. He was close to the CityBase Shopping area@Brooks.
2:30 - I decided to go after my wife earlier than usual because of the bad weather and having to take back streets. I couldn't believe how the KIA Spectra 5 didn't ever stall out, my respect for that subcompact really grew today.
3:00 - wife and employees got permission to leave work early because of bad weather. Good.
Bad!
I35 traffic was at a standstill so we took backstreets again.
I37 south was not an option, am radio said the SA River was almost to the bottom of the bridge and that both lanes were unusable and closed, water on them made them so.
10:00 - picked up my son from the garage where the tow truck had left him and his truck, came home, grabbed me a cold one, and am hoping for a brighter, happier future, a better tomorrow!
You and me both. The heavy rains have led to a few roof leaks in my seven year old home I wasn't expecting.
Anyone know of a trusty roofer/handyman?
Clutch20
08-16-2007, 11:51 PM
Crap! Sorry about those leaks, dabing some tar on those parts will work temporarily, that roofing tar being the cold patch type that works even when the roof is wet. I used to use it on the first house we had. It really works, but you gotta find someone to get on the roof to check the compromised parts, or do it yourself.
I'd do that if I know where the leak was. Unfortunately, I can't get to that attic to see from the inside.
I have a hunch they either didn't flash a corner, or didn't flash enough.
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-17-2007, 12:14 AM
Man, I nearly had to take a raft to my truck outside the newsroom.
But once I got past Culebra @ I-10, it let up.
RashoFan
08-17-2007, 02:05 AM
Because you know us so well?
/Looks up low-water crossings near RashoFan's home base.
waiting for a reply from Shoog ....
P.S. Cibolo creek is in my "AREA"...
Johnny_Blaze_47
08-17-2007, 02:32 AM
P.S. Cibolo creek is in my "AREA"...
Yeah, but I don't want to actually die in a low-water crossing... just have you get your feet wet in coming to get me.
MannyIsGod
08-17-2007, 03:00 AM
Roof leaks everywhere today. Not fun.
Ginofan
08-17-2007, 07:55 AM
We had a big leak in the ceiling of one of our restrooms at work. And there's water damage in the ceiling all over the rest of the property.
It wasn't too too bad driving into Seguin this morning, most of the rain was focused in San Antonio. From I-10 & Wurzbach all the way to I-10 and WW White, poured cats and dogs! Once I got of that, it was pretty dry all the way into Seguin.
Shelly
08-17-2007, 08:47 AM
I just got my roof replaced one week before all the rains started. Good thing!
CubanMustGo
08-17-2007, 09:04 AM
Sorry to hear that there has been so much flooding in SA ... but Dean is much more worrisome. Right now we'd better all be hoping that it hits the Yucatan, b/c they're projecting it'll be a cat 5 by the time it gets there and if it doesn't hit the Yucatan it's likely going to draw a bead on Corpus or (less likely) Houston. It still might even if it does hit the Yucatan but it'll be less intense if it does.
Compared to yesterday some of the models are starting to bring Dean further north - of course it's way too early but folks on the coast need to be keeping a real close eye on this one.
boutons_
08-17-2007, 09:44 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083524.shtml?5day?large#contents
Jamaica is the next victim.
If Dean swings north a bit, punching bag western Cuba will get punched again.
MannyIsGod
08-17-2007, 09:54 AM
Cuba and Jamica are sure to get hit from Dean. I do think Texas will not escape it as well, but whether not its the lower or upper gulf coast I don't know.
Dean is going to be a monster.
StylisticS
08-17-2007, 10:50 AM
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL042007mlts.gif?590454299
It looks as if Erin was nothing but a little practice for South Texas. The real one is coming next week and this one might be a big one considering how warm the waters are in the Gulf. If it doesn't hit Cuba or the Yucatan, and heads into the Gulf, holy shiet.
CosmicCowboy
08-17-2007, 12:33 PM
The problem with Erin is that everything is totally saturated now. If Dean makes it to Texas the flooding is gonna be awful.
The problem with Erin is that everything is totally saturated now. If Dean makes it to Texas the flooding is gonna be awful.
http://www.monkey.net/archives/real-looter.jpg
Looking for an empty tub...
CosmicCowboy
08-17-2007, 01:26 PM
hmmm...latest updates are in. NOGAPS has changed dramatically and has it hitting the yucatan and then going into northern Mexico. Sucks to be them but that's sure what I hope it does.
Darling...for swift water rescue, I wear a wet suit
Take it from someone who dives (although none since I got back from Florida), don't fart while you're wearing it!
http://www.breaktaker.com/albums/pictures/people/WetsuitFart.jpg
Slomo
08-17-2007, 01:48 PM
:lmao
Clutch20
08-17-2007, 02:01 PM
I'd do that if I know where the leak was. Unfortunately, I can't get to that attic to see from the inside.
I have a hunch they either didn't flash a corner, or didn't flash enough.
Could very well be true about the your roof's flashing because that rain was coming down at a sharp angle
cause of those high winds.
Hey, I'm turning in a turtle that wandered into my yard last night, about 11 inches long, to the wildlife center
at Region 20. It was scooting itself along the back sidewalk when I saw it this morning so I picked it up to put
into a temporary holding container w/water.
Dunno where it came from but it will die from lack of a proper environment if I left to it's devices.........
Is it a box turtle I wonder?
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q266/andygamezusa/tuttle-4.jpg
CosmicCowboy
08-17-2007, 02:08 PM
I'm pretty sure thats a terrapin. They live on dry land. He probably just wishes you would let him go so he can get out of the water and back to his business.
Shelly
08-17-2007, 02:10 PM
Take it from someone who dives (although none since I got back from Florida), don't fart while you're wearing it!
http://www.breaktaker.com/albums/pictures/people/WetsuitFart.jpg
:lmao
CubanMustGo
08-17-2007, 02:15 PM
4 of 5 of the latest models have it going into Yucatan, the GFDL takes it to New Orleans :(
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_model.gif
Clutch20
08-17-2007, 02:46 PM
I'm pretty sure thats a terrapin. They live on dry land. He probably just wishes you would let him go so he can get out of the water and back to his business.
Thanks CC! I'll follow that lead.
Sister in law says it's a pond turtle.
Someone at wife's work said red eared something.
But you're right, it ain't happy where it's at!
Clutch20
08-17-2007, 02:49 PM
Red Eared Slider
Someone else where my wife works agrees with you. The power in those hing legs is awesome but I didn't yank.
Someone else has added sometimes they might carry salmonella.
Good thing I used gloves cause at first I couldn't see if it was a snapping turtle, it's mouth was under leaves.
Sonia_TX
08-17-2007, 04:22 PM
Someone else where my wife works agrees with you. The power in those hing legs is awesome but I didn't yank.
Someone else has added sometimes they might carry salmonella.
Good thing I used gloves cause at first I couldn't see if it was a snapping turtle, it's mouth was under leaves.
Yeah, it's a red eared slider... we have 2 of them. And they can snap... well ours do... and they hiss. haha. Glad you picked him up and turning him in. :)
Das Texan
08-17-2007, 05:26 PM
4 of 5 of the latest models have it going into Yucatan, the GFDL takes it to New Orleans :(
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_model.gif
The GFDL is just a sick, twisted model, although thats not a direct hit, just means the usual stronger part of the storm rages through NOLA.
Manu20
08-17-2007, 07:15 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad
Dean is a category 4 Hurricane as of 7pm CDT with winds of 135.
Here is a nice radar loop of Dean. Link (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html)
1Parker1
08-17-2007, 08:20 PM
Where's Manny????
MannyIsGod
08-17-2007, 08:23 PM
Right here.
marini martini
08-17-2007, 08:30 PM
The Guadalupe is up to the bridge on 281
ashbeeigh
08-17-2007, 08:35 PM
The Guadalupe is up to the bridge on 281
That's scary. I was just tubing there in July. It was high, but, obviously not that high.
marini martini
08-17-2007, 08:36 PM
We were just there Wenesday
Extra Stout
08-17-2007, 09:33 PM
Most of the models have Dean going somewhere through Mexico. The GFDL model shows a Category 5 storm at 910 mb slamming into Galveston Bay.
If that happens, you won't have to worry about the price of gas anymore. You will have to worry about the price of hay.
Clutch20
08-17-2007, 10:49 PM
Yeah, it's a red eared slider... we have 2 of them. And they can snap... well ours do... and they hiss. haha. Glad you picked him up and turning him in. :)
Wow......then I was lucky being cautious. This one didn't hiss, just kept looking at me and hardly ever pulled it's head way back into his shell even though I got close.
Well, it's gone now to the wildlife center Education Center, Region 20, probably trying to pick up other turtles with typical reptile/amphibian come-ons.....
Extra Stout
08-18-2007, 10:05 AM
It looks more and more like this is a Tamaulipas storm.
Which, if it hits Tampico, will cause a gas shock.
hey, here's a link with about 5 or six minutes worth of dean info
VID :D http://www.newschannel5.tv/Video/Weather/977744.wvx
ShoogarBear
08-18-2007, 08:29 PM
Manny doesn't care about Jamaican people.
Extra Stout
08-18-2007, 11:10 PM
Manny doesn't care about Jamaican people.
Hopefully Dean does the Jamaican shuffle* like Ivan did.
*The Jamaican shuffle is the tendency of hurricanes to alter their course for no apparent reason in order to miss Jamaica.
boutons_
08-19-2007, 12:23 AM
Dean has backed slightly to the south, but unless it backs a lot more, mon, Jamaica is going to take long, 150 mph bashing, with Dean moseying along at 15 mph right along or just south of the Jamaican southern.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/202526.shtml?3day?large#contents
The sone
08-19-2007, 01:44 AM
yes yes its a storm...
Ginofan
08-20-2007, 08:25 PM
I don't know if anyone still cares or not, but the NHC has upgraded Hurricane Dean to a Cat 5. You have to feel bad for all those people in the Yucatan...I heard there are hardly any shelters in Belize, craziness!
marini martini
08-20-2007, 09:02 PM
I still care, I have friends in Belize
Ginofan
08-20-2007, 09:08 PM
Have you heard from them Marini? I hope they've found some type of safe shelter if they are still in Belize.
marini martini
08-20-2007, 09:18 PM
Yep, they are trying to get to S.A. while we speak!
Cry Havoc
08-21-2007, 08:26 AM
Dean washed ashore today as the first Category 5 landfalling hurricane since Andrew annihilated the Miami-Dade area in 1992. Dean also now holds the official record for the 9th most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic basin, and is the 3rd strongest landfalling hurricane in history, behind Gilbert in 1988, and the Unnamed "Labor Day" Hurricane that laid waste to Florida in 1935.
Dean also shares another characteristic with Andrew -- Both hurricanes intensifying right up to the shore before losing strength. It's hypothesized that Andrew was strengthening so rapidly that he actually tightened the eyewall and somehow found a lower pressure after moving onshore. This is important, because a weakening hurricane at landfall will lose strength much more rapidly than one that's holding steady or gaining power.
The damage from this is going to be enormous.
Those of you in Texas, be very thankful you didn't mean Dean at his worst.
Aggie Hoopsfan
08-21-2007, 09:01 AM
Belize only has like 2-3 public paved roads. It's a pretty poor country. They probably got rocked pretty hard. Wonder if there's anything left out on Ambergris Caye.
Cry Havoc
08-21-2007, 09:21 AM
Belize only has like 2-3 public paved roads. It's a pretty poor country. They probably got rocked pretty hard. Wonder if there's anything left out on Ambergris Caye.
The mudslides from this storm alone will be more than enough completely annihilate most of Belize. It's sad. There's not a damn thing they could have done to prep for this kind of storm. Heck, we're "rich" here in the States and a Cat 3/4 (Katrina) was more than we could deal with, then Wilma hit us right in the mouth again a month later. A Cat 5 in the States would deal unfathomable damage, let alone in Belize where they have NO shelter from this storm.
MannyIsGod
08-21-2007, 11:03 AM
Katarina was no regular cat 3. Really it was a lot more like a Cat 5 with Cat 3 winds. However, the majority of damage from hurricanes comes from the storm surge, so the worst part of Katrina was definetly catagory five.
Rita wasn't nearly as bad either because of where it came ashore.
Anyhow, I'm not sure how populated that portion of the Yucatan is. I'm guessing its not very populated so while there will be a lot of deaths (Hurricanes in 3rd world countries always kill a lot of people - weak or strong ) it won't be as bad as it could have been.
Flooding and landslides will be the worst part of this storm and that would have been the same regardless of the catagory it hit the shore as.
Shelly
08-21-2007, 05:20 PM
Are feeder bands making it all the way up here? It's pouring at my house!
CubanMustGo
08-21-2007, 07:38 PM
Nope, just a few spotty showers. You must have had one of them.
Cry Havoc
08-22-2007, 12:06 AM
Katarina was no regular cat 3. Really it was a lot more like a Cat 5 with Cat 3 winds. However, the majority of damage from hurricanes comes from the storm surge, so the worst part of Katrina was definetly catagory five.
Rita wasn't nearly as bad either because of where it came ashore.
Regardless, we should have been prepared. The surge from Katrina was incredible, but by no means was it out of our capability to handle. I was just alluding to the fact that this hurricane is even stronger than Katrina was when she washed ashore, and we couldn't handle her. Of course, Katrina had whipped up Cat 5 seas two days in advance, but that's not exactly the point I was making.
This hurricane is presently heading for Mexico City. I'm not sure how the plateau would affect a hurricane, but I doubt it would "shear" it enough to prevent torrential amounts of rain from falling. Convection is refiring around a massive eye as of 11:45 EDT on the IR loop. Dean is getting some strength back for a push inland.
Bigzax
08-22-2007, 10:23 AM
all i know is the yucatan looks like someone put arsenic in the rio grande.
Dean washed ashore today as the first Category 5 landfalling hurricane since Andrew annihilated the Miami-Dade area in 1992. Dean also now holds the official record for the 9th most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic basin, and is the 3rd strongest landfalling hurricane in history, behind Gilbert in 1988, and the Unnamed "Labor Day" Hurricane that laid waste to Florida in 1935.
Dean also shares another characteristic with Andrew -- Both hurricanes intensifying right up to the shore before losing strength. It's hypothesized that Andrew was strengthening so rapidly that he actually tightened the eyewall and somehow found a lower pressure after moving onshore. This is important, because a weakening hurricane at landfall will lose strength much more rapidly than one that's holding steady or gaining power.
The damage from this is going to be enormous.
Those of you in Texas, be very thankful you didn't mean Dean at his worst.
We were living in Baton Rouge during Andrew and it was scary! We had tall thin pine trees in our backyard and they were bending so much from the wind I thought one was going to split in half.
O-Factor
08-22-2007, 11:14 AM
Katarina was no regular cat 3. Really it was a lot more like a Cat 5 with Cat 3 winds. However, the majority of damage from hurricanes comes from the storm surge, so the worst part of Katrina was definetly catagory five.
Rita wasn't nearly as bad either because of where it came ashore.
Anyhow, I'm not sure how populated that portion of the Yucatan is. I'm guessing its not very populated so while there will be a lot of deaths (Hurricanes in 3rd world countries always kill a lot of people - weak or strong ) it won't be as bad as it could have been.
Flooding and landslides will be the worst part of this storm and that would have been the same regardless of the catagory it hit the shore as.
Katrina was a cat 3. But what made Katrina seem worse than it really was, was the old ass levees that New Orleans never decided to upgrade or fix. Once they broke, thats when the city got flooded. Had N.O. of done regular maintinece to the levees alot of distaster would of been avoided.
ATRAIN
08-22-2007, 11:20 AM
Katrina was a cat 3. But what made Katrina seem worse than it really was, was the old ass levees that New Orleans never decided to upgrade or fix. Once they broke, thats when the city got flooded. Had N.O. of done regular maintinece to the levees alot of distaster would of been avoided.
Hey go back to the club and talk about favorite toothpaste or something.
Get out of the club if you dont like what we talk about FUCKHEAD!!
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