Locks of the Week week 2

[John Rocker]

Here are my picks for the weekend. I don't pick every game, only the Locks as I seem them. 4-0 in College action last week.

Michigan -8 Notre Dame
Virginia Tech -20 Ohio
Navy -7 Ball St.
Louisville -6.5 Kentucky

5 Star Lock of the Week
USC -10 Nebraska

make money money make money :greedy

[MajorMike]

I call Washington +4

[John Rocker]

I call Washington +4
the play on that game is easily Ohio St. here is why:

Ohio State is a powerhouse, people like seeing powerhouses losing, so the line is adjusted for every person that has bet on Washington just because they don't want Ohio State to win (I'm even guessing you are one of those people). OSU has yet to give up a touchdown this year, they hold a huge advantage on talent, which will show in the 2nd half of the game. This line should be OSU -7 or higher, but because of the factor that people don't like them, it is lower.

[MajorMike]

Yeah, but I don't bet. I just like UDub to win straight up. Might as well gimme the points while I'm at it.

[Thunder Dan]

You're right about Ohio St. that is why the USC line is only -10(-105) and the LSU line was only -12 last week. People love seeing powerhouses lose, so they bet against them. That's why favorite cover more often than not in college

[MajorMike]

The line is only -10 because SC is playing AT a powerhouse.
The LSU line was -12 at home because they were HOSTING a powerhouse.
The line is +4 for tosu at UDub because without homefield advantage they are only around a TD better than them. tosu hasn't allowed a TD, but we are talking a 1AA team and Akron. Akron, who only scored 1 offensive TD against Army. Also, tosu's Offense isn't exactly stellar, itself, yet. 7 TDs in 2 games against that competition.

[Brutalis]

The line is only -10 because SC is playing AT a powerhouse.
The LSU line was -12 at home because they were HOSTING a powerhouse.
The line is +4 for tosu at UDub because without homefield advantage they are only around a TD better than them. tosu hasn't allowed a TD, but we are talking a 1AA team and Akron. Akron, who only scored 1 offensive TD against Army. Also, tosu's Offense isn't exactly stellar, itself, yet. 7 TDs in 2 games against that competition.

Calling Nebraska a powerhouse these days is like calling Houston Nutt the SEC's premiere coach. Nope.

[MajorMike]

Don't be swole on the bugeaters. I can't stand them, either, but they are 100x the program your piggies are. And if recently include the past 15 years, they have 3 MNCs recently.

[Whisky Dog]

I'd like Nebraska if the game was being played in a snow storm because the SC guys would be busy snorting the white powder and giving themselves brain freezes. Old habits die hard.

[John Rocker]

The line is only -10 because SC is playing AT a powerhouse.
The LSU line was -12 at home because they were HOSTING a powerhouse.
The line is +4 for tosu at UDub because without homefield advantage they are only around a TD better than them. tosu hasn't allowed a TD, but we are talking a 1AA team and Akron. Akron, who only scored 1 offensive TD against Army. Also, tosu's Offense isn't exactly stellar, itself, yet. 7 TDs in 2 games against that competition.


Look I understand that you have no idea what my reasoning is, and thats fine. But you have to understand how game lines work. They (lines makers) just do make a line "USC -10 Nebraska" because they think USC will win by 10. They make that line because it gets fair action on both sides. If 10x as many people put money on USC and only a small amount put it on Nebraska then the line will go up to USC -12, USC -20, USC -50 until they reach a point where people start betting on Nebraska. The sportsbook's job is to make sure they don't lose big on a game; so they don't care who wins, regardless they will make money.

Now in College football you have "the underdog phenomenon" i.e. people love a underdog. People all over the world will bet Nebraska just because they want USC to lose. They want this game to be close because they don't want to watch a blowout. So that is how people will bet. Remember Ohio St. vs Iowa last year? ESPN made that game out to be a true test for tOSU going on the road, but they ended up killing Iowa (the line was Ohio St. -8 I believe). So all these people wishing for the underdog to show up, are driving the line down for the value play which is USC. The line now is even as far down as -9. THIS IS A LOCK, IF YOU DON'T BET ON THIS YOU SHOULD BE CHECKED FOR MENTAL PROBLEMS USC has 10X the talent of Nebraska, they can play in big games, and they all have experience in being ranked so high. USC is the play and thank all the people wanting an underdog. Remember there is parity in the NFL, NCAA...no so much.

Now use my same logic for the OSU game, could the -4 be higher? probably

I'm not saying they will win 100% of the time, I'm just getting myself on the right side of the game.

[MajorMike]

I don't need a clinic. I completely understand how lines work. The general summation of all that you typed is that oddsmakers want to make the lines as true as possible while still getting the most action as possible on a game. I get it.

However, I also get that if tosu was really 2 or 3 TDs better that UDub, they would be more than a 4 point fave. -10 means they are supposed to beat the shit out of them.

Additionally, I get that tosu was supposed to beat the hell out of Florida in the BCS game last year, but the line was relatively small (-8ish?) to get more people to watch. I get that they lost that game, as well.

Again, as stated in an earlier post, I don't really give a crap about lines and getting a sermon on why lines are what they are. I like UDub to win, straight up.

[tlongII]

UW will cover against Ohio State.

[Whisky Dog]

UW will cover against Ohio State.

Jokes on you my friend

[RonMexico]

CaptMike and I agree on the Washington pick... has world stopped spinning?

[degenerate_gambler]

people love a underdog.


joe public may love doggies but the majority of the time they don't bet 'em. that's a fact.

[John Rocker]

joe public may love doggies but the majority of the time they don't bet 'em. that's a fact.


Look at all the people jumping on the Washington +4 line. Lines like 3.5-5.5 are sucker lines because they know it will get action on the underdog. Your telling me that people aren't betting on Nebraska? The line has moved down over the last 24 hours, they sure as heck are.

[degenerate_gambler]

Your telling me that people aren't betting on Nebraska? The line has moved down over the last 24 hours, they sure as heck are.


that's what i'm telling you.

http://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football-live-odds.aspx

20,595 bets placed on the Neb/USC game with 81% of the wagers on SC.

[NoMoneyDown]

Here are my picks for the weekend. I don't pick every game, only the Locks as I seem them. 4-0 in College action last week.

Michigan -8 Notre Dame
Virginia Tech -20 Ohio
Navy -7 Ball St.
Louisville -6.5 Kentucky

5 Star Lock of the Week
USC -10 Nebraska

make money money make money :greedy

The only one I would question is Mich/ND. Both schools blow chunks. Luoisville should win by at least 2 TD's.

[BeerIsGood!]

I call Washington +4

Good call :lol

[John Rocker]

3-2. Decent Day but the Navy loss was a tough one in OT. 7-2 overall in college

[NoMoneyDown]

Louisville's "D" sucks more than I thought. WVU should have no problem winning the BE championship this year.

[SrA Husker]

Even as a Nebraska fan, I couldn't really argue with your picks John. There's a reason I wasn't talking smack before the USC game started. I thought we could win, but I respect USC and their talent. It's a good reason why I have a rule that I never bet on Nebraska games, no matter the spread. Ball State was surprising, but Nebr. should still easily take care of them next week. I wouldn't of called Louisville a lock after last weeks performance against Middle Tenn.