No BS!

[Howard K Stern]

What are the Spurs chances of a repeat?

[Re-Animator]

What are the Spurs chances of a repeat?


Very Good!

[Whottt.]

you really think Stern would let it happen?
It's 60/40

[Fast Dunk]

20/80

No BS!

[atxrocker]

not good imo. way too much competition and unknown factors to get my money this early.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

hmmm well let's see.

Who is their competition and did they improve?

Suns: No. Lost Kurt Thomas who was their only Duncan defender. Picked up Grant Hill, who is more of a scorer than a defender. They don't need more scoring, there's only one ball. Picked up nothing of consequence in the draft.

Mavs: No. They've made essentially no changes. And they are now scarred from their first-round playoff loss last season.

How about the Spurs. Have they improved?

I think yes, a bit. Ime Udoka may be Bowen's backup. Other than that, they bring back their championship team.

Therefore, we conclude:

Their chances of winning this year are actually a bit better than last year. So I'd give them a 50-50 shot. If they are healthy going into the playoffs, I'd give them maybe a 60-40 chance.

[Reggie Miller]

I honestly believed the Spurs would win every year after 2003. I didn't necessarily expect them to rattle off five or six championships in a row, but I expected them to compete for the title every season. To be brutally frank, the Spurs probably should have won in 2004 and 2006. (As in, they had the best overall team.)

The only obstacle for the Spurs will be the Mavericks and the "given" risks of team sports (injuries, etc.). None of the elite teams have improved. The Rockets may have taken steps to guarantee elite status, but even if true, Houston will not be a major threat this first year.

I guess what I'm saying is that this is their best chance so far. There really is no dominant team like the Kobe/Shaq Lakers or 2003-2005 Pistons around to challenge the Spurs. In 2004, the Spurs had to contend with the Lakers and their own confidence/leadership issues. In 2006, the Spurs had to contend with Tim's feet and a Mavericks team built to beat them. The way the Finals played out, maybe this was a blessing. (However, Wade can't do anything that Parker can't do, as we saw against Cleveland.) I don't think the Spurs will choke away another series with Dallas.

I hope for all Spurs fans that I am correct. This even-year BS is getting old.

[Kamnik]

50% should be an appropriate chance...

There is maybe 25% chance for some serious injury to TD or TP destroys Spurs chances and maybe 25% someone like Houston, Dallas or Utah Jazz are good enough to take us out.

In the east Bulls could become a very good team but if they dont have a low post scorer they are not a threat yet.

I dont see any other team than the 3 mentioned from the west have a chance. (we all know why/how Suns screwed themselves with getting rid of Kurt Thomas)

[JamStone]

They're definitely among the 5 or so best bets or most likely teams to win the title next season. And, they're probably the favorites to do so as well. Out of the Eastern Conference, the teams that I think can win a title if they got to the Finals are the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, but I'm not convince either team will make it to the NBA Finals. Teams like Chicago and Cleveland, who are better bets to make it to the Finals, don't strike me as good enough to win an NBA Finals against a Western Conference team. I think Detroit would have a decent shot, better than Chicago or Cleveland if they got there, but I don't think Detroit will make it to the Finals next year. If Shaq isn't fat and lazy, he's still capable of helping a team go very deep in the playoffs, and Wade has proven to be a great closer. The Heat will have problems this season, but they are still dangerous. Now, if Boston finds the right chemistry through the season and is playing their best basketball when the playoffs arrive, then they are capable of winning a title.

For as much as they can be made fun of for choking or not playing defense or whatever, Dallas and Phoenix remain top contenders for the title as well. I would probably throw in Houston if they can stay healthy with their additions as serious title contenders. So, there are only a handful of teams that, to me, have a legit shot at winning the title.

The Spurs are definitely among them. But, the regular season is long. And, crazy things can happen from serious injury to a key player to something personal in a key player's life that becomes a distraction to a bad bounce in a key game here and there. And, of course, the playoffs are a different animal. And, anything can happen when two great teams play a seven game series.

I think compared to every other team in the league, the Spurs have a very good chance to repeat. But, still overall, the odds are not great. The odds of any team winning a title are not great. As Spurs fans know, it takes a lot of hard work and good luck. But, the Spurs' chances are probably better than any other team in the league at winning and thereby repeating.

[JamStone]

50% at Spurs repeating versus 50% for one of 29 other teams winning a title?????

Think about your odds again. 2:1 odds Spurs repeat?

Foreal?

[hater]

no BS? 1 in 3 or 33%

[Kamnik]

50% at Spurs repeating versus 50% for one of 29 other teams winning a title?????

Think about your odds again. 2:1 odds Spurs repeat?

Foreal?

I am serious.

Look.... IF THEY ARE HEALTHY

Who from east can really chalenge them? Cavs got swept after wining the east.

And in the west... in a first to 4 system Utah, Rockets or Mavs are the only ones who could beat them. I cant imagine anyone else when core of the team is not bugged with injuries.

Suns blew their chance by shipping out Kurt Thomas.

[JamStone]

I am serious.

Look.... IF THEY ARE HEALTHY

Who from east can really chalenge them? Cavs got swept after wining the east.

And in the west... in a first to 4 system Utah, Rockets or Mavs are the only ones who could beat them. I cant imagine anyone else when core of the team is not bugged with injuries.

Suns blew their chance by shipping out Kurt Thomas.


So, a friend offers you a bet on who will win the 2008 NBA championship. If the Spurs win, he pays you $10,000. If ANY OTHER NBA team wins, you pay him $10,000. You'll take that bet? 50-50 right? Fair bet if you think the Spurs chances are 50-50 to repeat.

[Kamnik]

So, a friend offers you a bet on who will win the 2008 NBA championship. If the Spurs win, he pays you $10,000. If ANY OTHER NBA team wins, you pay him $10,000. You'll take that bet? 50-50 right? Fair bet if you think the Spurs chances are 50-50 to repeat.

Yes....

Why do you find it so fascinatig? :toast

I believe that Spurs are the best team out there and some of the competition even got worse this offseason.



Official Vegas odds cant be far of from 1-3 or something also. 1-2 isnt so far from that. ;)



If some higher being guaranteed me no Spur gets injuried this year i would say their chances are at 70%.

[duncan228]

The Spurs are always contenders, but I'm going to reserve my bet until I see the following:

Duncan's shape and attitude in training camp. If he's in what he considers to be great shape and he has the "No repeat" chip on his shoulder, I'll like our chances. The Spurs go far on Duncan's attitude. If he's rested and healthy with attitude we're in good shape from the get go.

I need to see how they come together the first few months, coming into the Rodeo Trip and the All Star break. Pop works his rotations, decides what Manu's doing on/off the bench, and generally let's the team show him what they've got. Remember, it was only last season that Pop called them out as the worst defensive team he'd seen. That sure motivated them!

Then there's SPAM. I'll certainly know then. They either have it or not by then.

I believe in them, I always do. But I know more about their actual Championship possibility as the season progresses.

[JamStone]

Yes....

Why do you find it so fascinatig? :toast

Because they are one out of 29 teams that have a chance. Because injuries ARE part of the equation. Because teams that are close and lose get better. Because the Spurs have had three other opportunities to repeat.




I believe that Spurs are the best team out there and some of the competition even got worse this offseason.

The best team doesn't always win the title.




Official Vegas odds cant be far of from 1-3 or something also. 1-2 isnt so far from that. ;)

Vegas odds have the Spurs 3:1 odds to win it all??? Really?

At any rate, even if that's the case, 50% is quite different from 33%.




If some higher being guaranteed me no Spur gets injuried this year i would say their chances are at 70%.

That's part of the point. You are saying the Spurs have a 50% chance to repeat even if they do have injuries.

[SequSpur]

Spurs Mavs-West Finals
Spurs Celtics-Finals

Spurs in six!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blow me!

[Reggie Miller]

If some higher being guaranteed me no Spur gets injuried this year i would say their chances are at 70%.

Given the guarantee, that sounds about right.

As duncan228 mentioned, a guarantee that TD was also p.o.'d wouldn't hurt, either. There were times in 2006-07 that I suspected Timmy's feet might not be 100%. I think Duncan and the Spurs are thinking in terms of extending his career now. Also, the Spurs have a tendency to play just well enough to win or play down to the level of competition. (A lot of teams do this, not just the Spurs.) If Duncan comes out with the attitude of repeat at any cost, this may be over already.

[duncan228]

If Duncan comes out with the attitude of repeat at any cost, this may be over already.

:smokin

Duncan is still in his prime, even with talk of his "twilight years" nearing.
I believe he's the best player in the league on both ends of the court.
The most complete player.

All it takes is for him to be healthy and not complacent. The rest of his team falls into place around him.

[saporvida]

im biased and therefore i think the spurs will always win yr in and yr out.

a repeat would be the icing on the cake for me though.

[sa_butta]

As long as we make it out of the West and into the Finals I think we win it all again. Hell we are 4-0 in finals appearances. The West is still very though. I give us a 50/50 shot of actually winning it all. Anytime you come back from a championship run, you have a target on your back. We have something they all want. And age is not on our side.

[urunobili]

33% chances... Rox Spurs west Bulls Celts in east... Spurs in 7 with Scola missing his game winning shot and Bulls in 5 after KG gets injured in game2.. Spurs over da Bulls in 6 Manu Finals MVP and started back again...

[Kamnik]

Because they are one out of 29 teams that have a chance. Because injuries ARE part of the equation. Because teams that are close and lose get better. Because the Spurs have had three other opportunities to repeat.


You very well know that 20 or so teams have a combined percentage of a possible ring this year 1%.

99% that one of the top 10 teams win.


Anyways... i wont argue about a few % up or down.

My point is that if Spurs arent injured throught the playoffs they have a very very big % of chance of repeating.

I personally dont take Celtics (not enough depth and probably not good chemistry) and Bulls (Wallace is overrated and they dont have any solid low post scorer) or any eastern team very seriously.

And in the west most of the teams except the Rox will be worse this year. (the teams that can instantly contedn; offcourse Blazers and many other will be better)

[Switchman]

you really think Stern would let it happen?
It's 60/40


Word. Stern and the rest of the country has probably had quite enough of us winning and will prevent it this year.

Although why not have Suns and CLE in finals last year. Who knows.

[Felonius Monk]

Vegas odds have the Spurs 3:1 odds to win it all??? Really?

At any rate, even if that's the case, 50% is quite different from 33%.



A couple of things wrong here.

First, Vegas odds are 4:1.

Secondly, these odds translate to a 20% chance. Three to one would translate to a 25% chance. Two to one would be 33%.

[Vingianx]

Spurs will get there again

[YoMamaIsCallin]

50% at Spurs repeating versus 50% for one of 29 other teams winning a title?????

Think about your odds again. 2:1 odds Spurs repeat?

Foreal?

actually it's not 2:1 odds, it's 50-50.

And, look at recent history. The Spurs have won it all 3 out of the last 5 years. The other 2 times, they were knocked out by a last-second play. That to me says that for the last 5 years the Spurs have been right there with as good a chance to win as the rest of the NBA combined. That is 50-50 odds to me.

And, things have not changed radically, neither the Spurs nor the other elite teams.

So, why not 50-50?

[JamStone]

A couple of things wrong here.

First, Vegas odds are 4:1.

Secondly, these odds translate to a 20% chance. Three to one would translate to a 25% chance. Two to one would be 33%.

Thanks. I'm not a gambler. I didn't know that.

So, Vegas says Spurs chance is about 20% to win it all again.

And, Kamnik doesn't want to argue about a few percentages up or down. How about a 30% difference, especially when Kamnik brought up Vegas odds to begin with.

[JamStone]

actually it's not 2:1 odds, it's 50-50.

And, look at recent history. The Spurs have won it all 3 out of the last 5 years. The other 2 times, they were knocked out by a last-second play. That to me says that for the last 5 years the Spurs have been right there with as good a chance to win as the rest of the NBA combined. That is 50-50 odds to me.

And, things have not changed radically, neither the Spurs nor the other elite teams.

So, why not 50-50?



Uhhhhh, the other two times were in the second round, not the NBA Finals, not even the conference finals. And, both those times the Spurs were knocked out by teams that did not end up winning the title. Don't see how that would constitute to being "right there with a good chance to win."

[Kamnik]

@JamStone: Are you just pissed because noone mentiones the Pistons or what? :lol :toast

Chill friend....







1:4? :oops I am going to bet some money hehe!

I know Vegas knows their business but what the hell.... just 25%?

[lefty]

2008, easy

[JamStone]

@JamStone: Are you just pissed because noone mentiones the Pistons or what? :lol :toast

Chill friend....







1:4? :oops I am going to bet some money hehe!

I know Vegas knows their business but what the hell.... just 25%?


Chill???

You were the one who brought up Vegas odds.

None of the Pistons players deserve mention. None will be an MVP candidate. I understand that. It has nothing to do with anything I posted in this thread.

I am merely calling out your homerism. You think the Spurs have a 50% chance to repeat even if they have injuries. I just think that's a bit ridiculous.

Again, YOU were the one who first mentioned the Vegas odds. Now that it's clear that the Vegas odds don't support anything you stated, the Vegas odds don't make sense ...

[ShoogarBear]

The Spurs are always contenders, but face it: in a lot of ways they got breaks last year that partially made up for 2004 and 2006.

Dallas still presents all the same matchup problems assuming they aren't psychologically destroyed by what happened to them. Houston is always a tough matchup and will have Bonzi at minimum and perhaps Bonzi and Scola. I don't think Phoenix improved, but Utah might have.

I have no problem with the Spurs being considered favorites, but even then those odds can't be better than 3:1 or 5:2.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Uhhhhh, the other two times were in the second round, not the NBA Finals, not even the conference finals. And, both those times the Spurs were knocked out by teams that did not end up winning the title. Don't see how that would constitute to being "right there with a good chance to win."

uhhhhh, the other two times the Spurs got knocked out by the team that WON the Western Conference. Doesn't matter that it happened in the 2nd round, that's just when they happened to meet.

And, I think the Spurs would have given both Detroit (2004) and Miami (2006) a much closer Finals than the Lakers or Mavs did. Don't you? I mean, you've got to admit Detroit, because the Spurs came back and beat them in a close series the following season. Miami, they've always had trouble with for some reason. So that one, maybe, I'll give you.

[Fat boy]

hmmm well let's see.

Who is their competition and did they improve?

Suns: No. Lost Kurt Thomas who was their only Duncan defender. Picked up Grant Hill, who is more of a scorer than a defender. They don't need more scoring, there's only one ball. Picked up nothing of consequence in the draft.

Mavs: No. They've made essentially no changes. And they are now scarred from their first-round playoff loss last season.

How about the Spurs. Have they improved?

I think yes, a bit. Ime Udoka may be Bowen's backup. Other than that, they bring back their championship team.

Therefore, we conclude:

Their chances of winning this year are actually a bit better than last year. So I'd give them a 50-50 shot. If they are healthy going into the playoffs, I'd give them maybe a 60-40 chance.


I have to agree with this person.

[Dirk Nowitzki]

The Spurs are always contenders, but face it: in a lot of ways they got breaks last year that partially made up for 2004 and 2006.

Dallas still presents all the same matchup problems assuming they aren't psychologically destroyed by what happened to them. Houston is always a tough matchup and will have Bonzi at minimum and perhaps Bonzi and Scola. I don't think Phoenix improved, but Utah might have.

I have no problem with the Spurs being considered favorites, but even then those odds can't be better than 3:1 or 5:2.

Utah=2005 Sonics. Dont expect them to be as good as they were last season. They lost Fisher, still lack a 2, and have that overrated piece of shit called AK-47.

[Hantler]

You very well know that 20 or so teams have a combined percentage of a possible ring this year 1%.

99% that one of the top 10 teams win.


Anyways... i wont argue about a few % up or down.

My point is that if Spurs arent injured throught the playoffs they have a very very big % of chance of repeating.

I personally dont take Celtics (not enough depth and probably not good chemistry) and Bulls (Wallace is overrated and they dont have any solid low post scorer) or any eastern team very seriously.

And in the west most of the teams except the Rox will be worse this year. (the teams that can instantly contedn; offcourse Blazers and many other will be better)


:tu

[Big Worm]

As long as you make it out of the West and into the Finals I think you can win it all again. Hell you are 4-0 in finals appearances. The West is still very though. I give you all a 50/50 shot of actually winning it all. Anytime you come back from a championship run, you have a target on your back. You have something they all want. And age is not on your side.

[Brandon Fraser]

Uhhhhh, the other two times were in the second round, not the NBA Finals, not even the conference finals. And, both those times the Spurs were knocked out by teams that did not end up winning the title. Don't see how that would constitute to being "right there with a good chance to win."


Has a Good point!

[saporvida]

Has a Good point!

good point my ass.

we lose to the mavs in 06 by a small margin in game 7 of overtime and we werent in a good position to win it all?

we lose to the lakers in 04 by 0.4 and yet we werent in a good position to win it all?

remind me when the last time it was we lost a wcf and a finals series... yeah.