Wild Cobra
09-25-2007, 10:47 PM
For starters, here is the national debt data from
HISTORICAL TABLES
BUDGET OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
Fiscal Year 2008 (http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf)
Year National debt, in $millions
1940 ................. 50,696
1941 ................. 57,531
1942 ................. 79,200
1943 ................ 142,648
1944 ................ 204,079
1945 ................ 260,123
1946 ................ 270,991
1947 ................ 257,149
1948 ................ 252,031
1949 ................ 252,610
1950 ................ 256,853
1951 ................ 255,288
1952 ................ 259,097
1953 ................ 265,963
1954 ................ 270,812
1955 ................ 274,366
1956 ................ 272,693
1957 ................ 272,252
1958 ................ 279,666
1959 ................ 287,465
1960 ................ 290,525
1961 ................ 292,648
1962 ................ 302,928
1963 ................ 310,324
1964 ................ 316,059
1965 ................ 322,318
1966 ................ 328,498
1967 ................ 340,445
1968 ................ 368,685
1969 ................ 365,769 Last decrease in the national debt.
1970 ................ 380,921
1971 ................ 408,176
1972 ................ 435,936
1973 ................ 466,291
1974 ................ 483,893
1975 ................ 541,925
1976 ................ 628,970
1977 ................ 706,398
1978 ................ 776,602
1979 ................ 829,467
1980 ................ 909,041
1981 ................ 994,828
1982 ............... 1,137,315
1983 ............... 1,371,660
1984 ............... 1,564,586
1985 ............... 1,817,423
1986 ............... 2,120,501
1987 ............... 2,345,956
1988 ............... 2,601,104
1989 ............... 2,867,800
1990 ............... 3,206,290
1991 ............... 3,598,178
1992 ............... 4,001,787
1993 ............... 4,351,044
1994 ............... 4,643,307
1995 ............... 4,920,586
1996 ............... 5,181,465
1997 ............... 5,369,206
1998 ............... 5,478,189 Where is the surplus?
1999 ............... 5,605,523 Where is the surplus?
2000 ............... 5,628,700 Where is the surplus?
2001 ............... 5,769,881
2002 ............... 6,198,401
2003 ............... 6,760,014
2004 ............... 7,354,673
2005 ............... 7,905,300
2006 ............... 8,451,351
2007 estimate .. 9,007,765
2008 estimate .. 9,575,497
2009 estimate . 10,138,314
2010 estimate . 10,637,569
2011 estimate . 11,114,768
2012 estimate . 11,487,273
Now consider the inflation rates (http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=0 ) as well. Liberals like to cry about president Regan’s numbers, but he inherited a double-digit inflation. Interest on the debt alone kept him from coming close to a balanced budget.
Here is an interesting chart also:
U.S. Inflation; 1964 to 2006 (http://proft.50megs.com/inflation.html).
I put together some numbers:
Now since people like to give credit or blame to the sitting president, I will make note of a few things. FY 92 was the last budget president Bush (41) signed, and had a democrat congress. Cuts were made in the military to reduce future spending, but still had the cleanup of the Gulf war to contend with. The FY 92 budget had a 11.22% increase over the previous years while there was an 4.47% increase of inflation and population. The GNP grew by 5.28%. Good or bad? Hard to say. President Clinton’s 1993 budget only increased by 8.73% and the ’94 increased by 6.72% Not a bad trend, but if we are going to give president Clinton and the democrats credit, why did the budget still exceed the growth of population times inflation and GNP both? GNP was 5.92% and 5.18%. Population x inflation was 3.88% and 4.04%. Still spending too much. Could it be leftover programs from before? Maybe. Some last for 5 years, but not enough to account for not being able to bring spending growth under population times inflation. This high spending continues until 1998.
Republicans take control in 1995.
OK. Now the first budget by the republicans now is the FY 1996 budget. Budget increases by 5.30%, population x inflation by 4.13%, and GNP by 5.15%. Some improvement. FY 97… 3.62% budget increase, 3.58% population x inflation, and 6.31% growth in GNP. Awesome… This the first time in a while that federal spending increases less than the GNP! Almost a dead match for population x inflation as well!
By FY 98, the republican controlled congress has consistent numbers of spending growth being less than GNP growth, and the growth of population x inflation.
1998 2.03% spending increase, 5.40% GNP growth, 2.74% population x inflation
1999 2.32% spending increase, 5.82% GNP growth, 3.37% population x inflation
2000 0.41% spending increase, 6.30% GNP growth, 4.56% population x inflation
2001 2.51% spending increase, 3.58% GNP growth, 3.93% population x inflation
Yep, 9/11 took it’s toll on the GNP growth and we never really recovered on any of these indicators yet. Afterwards, rebuilding, Katrina, Military rebuilding and deployments… What is to be expected?
2002 7.43% spending increase, 3.29% GNP growth, 2.62% population x inflation
2003 9.06% spending increase, 4.17% GNP growth, 3.22% population x inflation
2004 8.80% spending increase, 6.41% GNP growth, 3.68% population x inflation
2005 7.49% spending increase, 6.65% GNP growth, 4.40% population x inflation
2006 6.91% spending increase, 6.41% GNP growth, 4.25% population x inflation
Now what’s amazing is having active military operations in two countries, we went above a 6% GNP growth again in 2004, and 2006 spending reduces near GNP growth again. Considering everything since 9/11, I’d say the republican congress and president Bush did pretty good. FY 2007 will be the last budget made by this last republican controlled congress. I’ll bet the trend holds. I’ll also bet that starting with the FY 2008 budget, the numbers will go the wrong way again, since congress controls the budget…
Some earlier reflections:
When president Carter was elected president in November 1976, inflation rates were 4.88 percent. The FY 1977 budget would already be in place, so FY 1978 would be his first budget to sign. In June of 1978, inflation rates broke 7%, and broke 10% in March of 1979. By March of 1980, inflation climbed to almost 15% (14.76%.) To finance the debt, congress enacted selling the 5 year EE series bond that doubled in value in five years. This set forth double digit increases in federal spending as well. It was some years before the EE series bond was reduced in payoff to the consumers. Congress was sitting fat and happy when the inflation rates came down again. The Reagan administration not only had to combat inflation, but by no fault of his own, had a national debt that doubled in five rears as well. From 1980 to 1995 the debt went from 0.9 trillion to 1.82 trillion. Another five years, 1990, almost doubled again to $3.2 trillion. All this brought to you by the democrats in congress before president Regan took office.
Note that a rate of 14.87% is where the principle doubles in 5 years. When considering the bond rates, population increases, and inflation. President Regan’s administration was perfectly normal for government spending.
HISTORICAL TABLES
BUDGET OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
Fiscal Year 2008 (http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf)
Year National debt, in $millions
1940 ................. 50,696
1941 ................. 57,531
1942 ................. 79,200
1943 ................ 142,648
1944 ................ 204,079
1945 ................ 260,123
1946 ................ 270,991
1947 ................ 257,149
1948 ................ 252,031
1949 ................ 252,610
1950 ................ 256,853
1951 ................ 255,288
1952 ................ 259,097
1953 ................ 265,963
1954 ................ 270,812
1955 ................ 274,366
1956 ................ 272,693
1957 ................ 272,252
1958 ................ 279,666
1959 ................ 287,465
1960 ................ 290,525
1961 ................ 292,648
1962 ................ 302,928
1963 ................ 310,324
1964 ................ 316,059
1965 ................ 322,318
1966 ................ 328,498
1967 ................ 340,445
1968 ................ 368,685
1969 ................ 365,769 Last decrease in the national debt.
1970 ................ 380,921
1971 ................ 408,176
1972 ................ 435,936
1973 ................ 466,291
1974 ................ 483,893
1975 ................ 541,925
1976 ................ 628,970
1977 ................ 706,398
1978 ................ 776,602
1979 ................ 829,467
1980 ................ 909,041
1981 ................ 994,828
1982 ............... 1,137,315
1983 ............... 1,371,660
1984 ............... 1,564,586
1985 ............... 1,817,423
1986 ............... 2,120,501
1987 ............... 2,345,956
1988 ............... 2,601,104
1989 ............... 2,867,800
1990 ............... 3,206,290
1991 ............... 3,598,178
1992 ............... 4,001,787
1993 ............... 4,351,044
1994 ............... 4,643,307
1995 ............... 4,920,586
1996 ............... 5,181,465
1997 ............... 5,369,206
1998 ............... 5,478,189 Where is the surplus?
1999 ............... 5,605,523 Where is the surplus?
2000 ............... 5,628,700 Where is the surplus?
2001 ............... 5,769,881
2002 ............... 6,198,401
2003 ............... 6,760,014
2004 ............... 7,354,673
2005 ............... 7,905,300
2006 ............... 8,451,351
2007 estimate .. 9,007,765
2008 estimate .. 9,575,497
2009 estimate . 10,138,314
2010 estimate . 10,637,569
2011 estimate . 11,114,768
2012 estimate . 11,487,273
Now consider the inflation rates (http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=0 ) as well. Liberals like to cry about president Regan’s numbers, but he inherited a double-digit inflation. Interest on the debt alone kept him from coming close to a balanced budget.
Here is an interesting chart also:
U.S. Inflation; 1964 to 2006 (http://proft.50megs.com/inflation.html).
I put together some numbers:
Now since people like to give credit or blame to the sitting president, I will make note of a few things. FY 92 was the last budget president Bush (41) signed, and had a democrat congress. Cuts were made in the military to reduce future spending, but still had the cleanup of the Gulf war to contend with. The FY 92 budget had a 11.22% increase over the previous years while there was an 4.47% increase of inflation and population. The GNP grew by 5.28%. Good or bad? Hard to say. President Clinton’s 1993 budget only increased by 8.73% and the ’94 increased by 6.72% Not a bad trend, but if we are going to give president Clinton and the democrats credit, why did the budget still exceed the growth of population times inflation and GNP both? GNP was 5.92% and 5.18%. Population x inflation was 3.88% and 4.04%. Still spending too much. Could it be leftover programs from before? Maybe. Some last for 5 years, but not enough to account for not being able to bring spending growth under population times inflation. This high spending continues until 1998.
Republicans take control in 1995.
OK. Now the first budget by the republicans now is the FY 1996 budget. Budget increases by 5.30%, population x inflation by 4.13%, and GNP by 5.15%. Some improvement. FY 97… 3.62% budget increase, 3.58% population x inflation, and 6.31% growth in GNP. Awesome… This the first time in a while that federal spending increases less than the GNP! Almost a dead match for population x inflation as well!
By FY 98, the republican controlled congress has consistent numbers of spending growth being less than GNP growth, and the growth of population x inflation.
1998 2.03% spending increase, 5.40% GNP growth, 2.74% population x inflation
1999 2.32% spending increase, 5.82% GNP growth, 3.37% population x inflation
2000 0.41% spending increase, 6.30% GNP growth, 4.56% population x inflation
2001 2.51% spending increase, 3.58% GNP growth, 3.93% population x inflation
Yep, 9/11 took it’s toll on the GNP growth and we never really recovered on any of these indicators yet. Afterwards, rebuilding, Katrina, Military rebuilding and deployments… What is to be expected?
2002 7.43% spending increase, 3.29% GNP growth, 2.62% population x inflation
2003 9.06% spending increase, 4.17% GNP growth, 3.22% population x inflation
2004 8.80% spending increase, 6.41% GNP growth, 3.68% population x inflation
2005 7.49% spending increase, 6.65% GNP growth, 4.40% population x inflation
2006 6.91% spending increase, 6.41% GNP growth, 4.25% population x inflation
Now what’s amazing is having active military operations in two countries, we went above a 6% GNP growth again in 2004, and 2006 spending reduces near GNP growth again. Considering everything since 9/11, I’d say the republican congress and president Bush did pretty good. FY 2007 will be the last budget made by this last republican controlled congress. I’ll bet the trend holds. I’ll also bet that starting with the FY 2008 budget, the numbers will go the wrong way again, since congress controls the budget…
Some earlier reflections:
When president Carter was elected president in November 1976, inflation rates were 4.88 percent. The FY 1977 budget would already be in place, so FY 1978 would be his first budget to sign. In June of 1978, inflation rates broke 7%, and broke 10% in March of 1979. By March of 1980, inflation climbed to almost 15% (14.76%.) To finance the debt, congress enacted selling the 5 year EE series bond that doubled in value in five years. This set forth double digit increases in federal spending as well. It was some years before the EE series bond was reduced in payoff to the consumers. Congress was sitting fat and happy when the inflation rates came down again. The Reagan administration not only had to combat inflation, but by no fault of his own, had a national debt that doubled in five rears as well. From 1980 to 1995 the debt went from 0.9 trillion to 1.82 trillion. Another five years, 1990, almost doubled again to $3.2 trillion. All this brought to you by the democrats in congress before president Regan took office.
Note that a rate of 14.87% is where the principle doubles in 5 years. When considering the bond rates, population increases, and inflation. President Regan’s administration was perfectly normal for government spending.