$3-$4 Gas Norm By End of 2008

[Nbadan]

Mexican Oil wells are drying up....and shrinking supplies will makes prices for the whole market rise...so what? we've had $3 gas? Well, except this time prices won't be coming back down...


NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices could top $100 a barrel by the end of next year and remain above that point for years to come, the chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets said Tuesday.

Jeffrey Rubin said rising demand within oil-rich nations such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years. That, combined with the increased cost of pulling petroleum from reserves deep under the sea or wringing it out of oil sands in Canada, will keep oil prices high even if demand in the Western world remains constant.

"We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future," Rubin said during a speech to investors here.

Rubin said oil exports from OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years. The biggest drop, he expects, will come from Mexico, a key U.S. supplier.

"Of the 3 million barrels, we're probably talking about 2 million barrels are going to come directly out of U.S. supplies," he said.

Rubin expects Mexican oil imports to the U.S. will dry up by about 2012. Some of that decline will be made up by imports from other parts of the world, but the lions' share -- nearly a third of all U.S. oil imports -- will come from Canadian oil sands, he predicted.

Linky (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1)

[boutons_]

"rising demand within oil-rich nations such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia"

Hey Rubin, how about China? India?

duyba has wasted 7 years of grabbing Iraqi oil, rather than launching an Apollo program of oil conservation and alternative fuels.

Imagine where we could be if dubya had spent $1T on energy research rather than grabbing Iraqi oil

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Weren't we already supposed to be at $3.00 by the end of the summer?

[703 Spurz]

Bullshit. Gas is continuing to go down and it won't stop. Fucking doomsday naysayers

[Wild Cobra]

Bullshit. Gas is continuing to go down and it won't stop. Fucking doomsday naysayers
Actually, gas will be rising again. Just watch the futures market.

I think this next years average will be in the $3.20 range where I live. Probably about $3.05 average nationwide.

[DarkReign]

$3.08 today in MI.

[Wild Cobra]

$3.08 today in MI.
OK, but that's above the national average. It's was $2.85 where I buy gas two days ago, a Cheveron station, and not the cheapest around here.

[DarkReign]

I wasnt claiming it to be the norm. My point was, gas hasnt gone below $3 here since...well, a very long time.

[Wild Cobra]

I wasnt claiming it to be the norm. My point was, gas hasnt gone below $3 here since...well, a very long time.
And I though it was bad here. Sorry to hear than.

Still, we can definitely see prices rise for some time to come. Primarily because of the explosive growth in China. For some time now, they have been the number 1 contributor to CO2 emissions. They passed us about a year ago I think. That means they are likely burning more fossil fuels than we do, and they are increasing that at an alarming rate.

Supply and demand will mean oil prices will rise over time. The more China takes, the more expensive it will get.

[Holt's Cat]

Weren't we already supposed to be at $3.00 by the end of the summer?


The Dow, Nasdaq, and/or S&P 500 were supposed to be half of what they were a month ago per Nbadan.

[ALVAREZ6]

Wow.


Good thing I'll be in college.

[Nbadan]

Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:51am EDT
By Robert Campbell - Analysis


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stable gasoline prices over the last two months have shielded U.S. consumers from the impact of galloping crude oil prices, but drivers will face more pain at the pump if the cost of crude remains high into next spring.

Retail gasoline prices have held in a tight range around $2.80 a gallon nationwide over the past two months amid a normal seasonal slowdown in road travel, even as the cost of crude oil has surged about 14 percent over the same period to a record
over $85 a barrel.

The stability in gasoline prices prompted U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman last week to describe the U.S. economy as "remarkably resilient" in the face of surging oil prices.

But analysts expect gasoline prices could rise to a never-before-seen $3.50 or $4 a gallon if oil prices hold near current levels into next spring when drivers hit the roads in greater numbers. That could further strain consumers already facing a housing
slowdown.

Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1544101020071016)

[Wild Cobra]

[B]Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:51am EDT

But analysts expect gasoline prices could rise to a never-before-seen $3.50 or $4 a gallon if oil prices hold near current levels into next spring when drivers hit the roads in greater numbers. That could further strain consumers already facing a housing slowdown.
I agree with the figures. Supply and demand changes, monitary value changes... Makes sense to me.

I see it as only a minor reason to affect the housing industry though. That is an issue of bad loans and an overheated market that needs to chill.

[xrayzebra]

According to some "experts" on the TV this afternoon there
should be a dramatic downward price to around 70 bucks a
barrel in the future. But some said it might hit a hundred
bucks before you see the slid back down. Others weren't sure.
The future's market doesn't "always" foretell the price of the
commodity. Sometimes these guys end up losing a lot of
money on the selling price when the price goes down.

[Wild Cobra]

According to some "experts" on the TV this afternoon there
should be a dramatic downward price to around 70 bucks a
barrel in the future. But some said it might hit a hundred
bucks before you see the slid back down. Others weren't sure.
The future's market doesn't "always" foretell the price of the
commodity. Sometimes these guys end up losing a lot of
money on the selling price when the price goes down.
Well, as long as the dollar is losing ground, I forsee the $100 range rather than the $70.

[Twisted_Dawg]

...And what about prices of other commodities affected by gas such as a gallon of milk? Last night I went to HEB to buy a gallon of 2% milk (Hill Country Fair label)which is usually $3.75. They were out and I had to buy the HEB label at $4.64. Two years ago a gallon of milk was $2.49.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Well, as long as the dollar is losing ground, I forsee the $100 range rather than the $70.

Nice. Our exports (Boeing airplanes) cost foreigners less....and our imports, which is everything we use, cost more. Nice.

[Wild Cobra]

...And what about prices of other commodities affected by gas such as a gallon of milk? Last night I went to HEB to buy a gallon of 2% milk (Hill Country Fair label)which is usually $3.75. They were out and I had to buy the HEB label at $4.64. Two years ago a gallon of milk was $2.49.
Wow... I usually can buy the 3.25% for something like $2.89. I buy the Wilcox Farms (http://www.wilcoxfarms.com/) products, and it runs about $4.69. Now these prices are at Wal-Mart. The are quite a bit more at other stores. I buy from them because they have organic products and threat their animals with a little more respect. Some of their lifestock is free range rather than tightly penned. Healthier cows and chickens means better milk and eggs. Their eggs run about 50% more too, but I think it's worth it.

[smeagol]

That is what happens with commoditties which are not renewable.

Same thing will happen with metals.

[Wild Cobra]

That is what happens with commoditties which are not renewable.

Same thing will happen with metals.
Yep, I save 1982 and older pennies...

[RandomGuy]

Actually, gas will be rising again. Just watch the futures market.

I think this next years average will be in the $3.20 range where I live. Probably about $3.05 average nationwide.


Correct.

Gas got high after the Katrina/Rita disaster because of a limited refinery capacity crunch.

That crunch has been alleviated, and refiners' margins are back down to normal levels.

That means that although the price of crude has gone up, refiners have, until now, absorbed that.

Meaning that the "slack" in the system has been taken up, so any increase in crude will, penny for penny, be reflected in the price of gas.

This is not "doomsday naysaying" but rather a stark market analysis.

[RandomGuy]

That is what happens with commoditties which are not renewable.

Same thing will happen with metals.

Wrong.

Recycling and scrap metal can reuse a lot of metal. Some new metal will always be needed, but you would be surprised at how much metal DOES get recycled.

I think at some point, we will start digging up our old landfills for aluminum. That point my be in 20 years, but I think it is an eventuality.

[xrayzebra]

Wrong.

Recycling and scrap metal can reuse a lot of metal. Some new metal will always be needed, but you would be surprised at how much metal DOES get recycled.

I think at some point, we will start digging up our old landfills for aluminum. That point my be in 20 years, but I think it is an eventuality.

Boy are ever right. I watched a program on the History
Channel the other night about metals. It is really
surprising just how much, if not nearly all, metal gets
used over and over again.

[RandomGuy]

Boy are ever right. I watched a program on the History
Channel the other night about metals. It is really
surprising just how much, if not nearly all, metal gets
used over and over again.

You and I probably watched the same program, then.

If you watch the history channel on a regular basis you have GOT to watch
"Connections" on PBS or get an audio book or something.

Connections shows how various accidents of culture, inventions, science, and history all work together to create surprising results.

It is a little bit like the seven degrees of kevin bacon game, but using history in place of movies. He starts with one inventor/invention, then links it to somebody else, and then goes from there, until he always comes back to the original person/invention.

It was done more as a mini-series, i.e it isn't really a running series, but rather a group of 10 shows that ran a few times.

Here is an amazon audio book of the show (http://www.amazon.com/Connections-James-Burke/dp/1559270667)

Or check out the DVD series (http://www.shoppbs.org/sm-pbs-connections-connections-3-dvd-5pk--pi-1450814.html)