AZ Diamondbacks vs Chi Cubs (Series)

[Kori Ellis]

:fro

[misterx91578]

:clap

[SrA Husker]

:clap

Classy sig. Even with all my trash talking of the Cards did I resort to such a low measure. I guess you're usually a White Sux fan, that's what I expect out of 'em.

[misterx91578]

Classy sig. Even with all my trash talking of the Cards did I resort to such a low measure. I guess you're usually a White Sux fan, that's what I expect out of 'em.

im a diamondback fan

[SrA Husker]

im a diamondback fan

So why not a "Go D-Backs" picture?

[misterx91578]

So why not a "Go D-Backs" picture?


that would have worked as well but i could have put a lot worse the cubs suck btw do you like my new sig better?

[DOMINATOR]

hope the diamondbacks absolutely embarrass the cubs.

[Xylus]

The media is criminally underestimating the Diamondbacks, despite the fact they had the best record in the NL. Even the Cubs players are underestimating them, it seems like, so that could work in AZ's advantage.

I got the DBacks winning in 4.

[SrA Husker]

The media is criminally underestimating the Diamondbacks, despite the fact they had the best record in the NL. Even the Cubs players are underestimating them, it seems like, so that could work in AZ's advantage.

I got the DBacks winning in 4.

The numbers speak against the D-Backs.

Runs Scored: 713 Runs Against: 732

Expected W/L: 79-83

Team Stats:
Batting Average: .250 (Last in NL)
Runs: 14th in NL
Hits: Last in NL
RBI's: 14th in NL
OBP: Last in NL


Honestly, it's a wonder how this team was able to have the highest win pct in the league, until you see that they were able to win 32 out of 52 1-run games, an amazing astonishment.

[misterx91578]

The numbers speak against the D-Backs.

Runs Scored: 713 Runs Against: 732

Expected W/L: 79-83

Team Stats:
Batting Average: .250 (Last in NL)
Runs: 14th in NL
Hits: Last in NL
RBI's: 14th in NL
OBP: Last in NL


Honestly, it's a wonder how this team was able to have the highest win pct in the league, until you see that they were able to win 32 out of 52 1-run games, an amazing astonishment.


only 1 number matters that is wins

[SrA Husker]

only 1 number matters that is wins

Agreed. I was just pointing out why the D-Backs are being "criminally underestimated"

[misterx91578]

Agreed. I was just pointing out why the D-Backs are being "criminally underestimated"


i like the fact the dbacks are "criminally underestimated" as the other dback fan put it

[K-State Spur]

only 1 number matters that is wins

except run differential is a pretty good predictor of postseason success. as Stark pointed out in his column today, 3 of the 4 teams who entered the playoffs with a negative run differential were immediately swept out of the postseason. the 4th had not one, but two cy young caliber pitchers.

[misterx91578]

except run differential is a pretty good predictor of postseason success. as Stark pointed out in his column today, 3 of the 4 teams who entered the playoffs with a negative run differential were immediately swept out of the postseason. the 4th had not one, but two cy young caliber pitchers.

According to Marc Normandin of BPro (premium content) the Dbacks finished with the best record in the NL AND maintained a negative run differential, they are the first team in the history of the game to do so...

so the dbacks all already made history so why not join the 87 twins and win it all

[Cry Havoc]

:clap

Now if only you were intelligent enough to put a sig in your profile without leaving a bunch of .html drool.

But nice try.

[misterx91578]

Now if only you were intelligent enough to put a sig in your profile without leaving a bunch of .html drool.

But nice try.


ok so im a retard

[K-State Spur]

so the dbacks all already made history so why not join the 87 twins and win it all

well, anything can happen, but i'm still thinking their offense (or lack of) will be the death of them.

the 87 twins actually had a pretty good offense (puckett, hrbeck, gaetti, gagne), they just didn't have much depth in their starting pitching or bullpen.

however, once they got to the playoffs, they could shorten their rotation, and over-use viola and blyleven (and reardon at the back of the pen). they could combine to start 5 games out of every 7 game series.

in fact, in that postseason, the twinkies only won 1 game NOT started by one of those 2 guys.

[ducks]

well dbacks have 2 homeruns tonight so far none for cubs

[K-State Spur]

now...if they could just pitch webb every game.

[ducks]

they have webb for 2 games if it goes 5 on regular rest

[ducks]

they have won without lots of runs in regular season
they can do the same in postseason

however I think they have been playing bad lately and do not expect much
they have sucked lately


I want them to win but I would not be surprised to see them lose

[ducks]

B. Lyon P perfect 8

[Xylus]

Webb pitched a beauty for 7 innings, Lyon came in during the 8th and killed.

3-1, Diamondbacks, bottom of the 8th. If the DBacks win this series, it'll be their pitching that does it.

Gotta love seeing the rookie Reynolds hit a homer in his first postseason game.

[ducks]

pulling C. Zambrano at the start of the 7 could cost the cubs the series


yes you want him to pitch game 4 but he was one
foolish move

[ducks]

E. Byrnes is the vet and has sucked at batting tonight

[ducks]

well can they choke like the suns in the 9?

[ducks]

The numbers speak against the D-Backs.

Runs Scored: 713 Runs Against: 732

Expected W/L: 79-83

Team Stats:
Batting Average: .250 (Last in NL)
Runs: 14th in NL
Hits: Last in NL
RBI's: 14th in NL
OBP: Last in NL


Honestly, it's a wonder how this team was able to have the highest win pct in the league, until you see that they were able to win 32 out of 52 1-run games, an amazing astonishment.
dude it is called managing correctly

[ducks]

J. Valverde!

[K-State Spur]

dude it is called managing correctly

kinda, but there's a lot of luck involved as well.

in baseball, we see records in one games highly fluctuate from year to year. do numerous managers just forget how to manage every other offseason?

[ducks]

he has called the right pitch hitters up alot!

[ducks]

like tonight Jackson got the job done!

[ducks]

DO NOT WALK HIm

[DOMINATOR]

he has called the right pitch hitters up alot!
pinch*

[ducks]

sure some luck was involved but you have to be in the postion to have some luck get you the w

[ducks]

snakes win

[ducks]

do not need alot of runs when cubs only score 1 time!

[ducks]

snakes>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>SUNS

they do not lose homecourt advantage after one game

[Xylus]

ducks, the Spurs are a little better than the Cubs. :dramaquee Anyway, shut the fuck up about basketball, this is baseball.

Good to see the DBacks win Game 1. Their offense was stagnant for most of the game against Zambrano, but thankfully we won't see him for a couple more games.

[misterx91578]

except run differential is a pretty good predictor of postseason success. as Stark pointed out in his column today, 3 of the 4 teams who entered the playoffs with a negative run differential were immediately swept out of the postseason. the 4th had not one, but two cy young caliber pitchers.

:elephant make that 2 teams not swept

[ducks]

yes but he is also on short rest
snakes never played him this year tell tonight
now they know what he is about and will light his sorry butt up

[ducks]

:elephant make that 2 teams not swept
they might be the one during the sweeping :clap

[tsb2000]

Woo-hoo!

Billy Goats for all! :spin

Go DBacks!

[Xylus]

Very nice win tonight, thanks to excellent pitching from Webb and the bullpen, and some nice hitting from a couple of our young guys.

Cubs looked slow tonight, that kind of surprised me.

[MajorMike]

The scrubbies are who we thought they were. (They suck).

[misterx91578]

the only time the diamondbacks have won the first playoff game of each series:

'01 NLDS
'01 NLCS
'01 WS

'07 NLDS...

[JMarkJohns]

I will admit that I don't know enough about baseball statistically, nor historically to understand why run-differential is such an indicating factor. I think it's just another stat. While the stats contribute to a win, they don't dictate wins.

case and point, in the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks outscored the Yankees 38 to 11. Yet, it took a Mariano Rivera meltdown to enable them to pull the series out. Had they been unable, they'd have lost the World Series, despite more than tripling the Yankees runs scored. Didn't Pittsburgh once defeat the Yankees in the series despite being outscored by a large margin?

I'm telling you, this run-differential is very, very misleading. They win two close games, then lose by two or three in the third. Sometimes by five or more. They are still taking two of three, just about every series. They were what, five wins behind the best record in all of baseball?

[tsb2000]

Exactly! I would think that since the DBacks know how to win close games, it means they have a lot of poise and don't get rattled by the pressure.

[misterx91578]

I will admit that I don't know enough about baseball statistically, nor historically to understand why run-differential is such an indicating factor. I think it's just another stat. While the stats contribute to a win, they don't dictate wins.

case and point, in the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks outscored the Yankees 38 to 11. Yet, it took a Mariano Rivera meltdown to enable them to pull the series out. Had they been unable, they'd have lost the World Series, despite more than tripling the Yankees runs scored. Didn't Pittsburgh once defeat the Yankees in the series despite being outscored by a large margin?

I'm telling you, this run-differential is very, very misleading. They win two close games, then lose by two or three in the third. Sometimes by five or more. They are still taking two of three, just about every series. They were what, five wins behind the best record in all of baseball?

that win close games and get blown out in the third game is also the story of this years team

[Xylus]

Chris Young, I want to have your babies!!!! :elephant

[Xylus]

DBacks up 4-2 in the bottom of the 4th. Davis looks like he's starting to settle down, so he'll probably last about 6 innings. Lilly could be out by the end of the 5th if his pitch count gets high enough.

[DOMINATOR]

GO D'backs... 1 inning away from 2 game lead.

cubs are gonna get swept along with phillies and yanks!

[DOMINATOR]

I will admit that I don't know enough about baseball statistically, nor historically to understand why run-differential is such an indicating factor. I think it's just another stat. While the stats contribute to a win, they don't dictate wins.

case and point, in the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks outscored the Yankees 38 to 11. Yet, it took a Mariano Rivera meltdown to enable them to pull the series out. Had they been unable, they'd have lost the World Series, despite more than tripling the Yankees runs scored. Didn't Pittsburgh once defeat the Yankees in the series despite being outscored by a large margin?

I'm telling you, this run-differential is very, very misleading. They win two close games, then lose by two or three in the third. Sometimes by five or more. They are still taking two of three, just about every series. They were what, five wins behind the best record in all of baseball?


you are right... the national media (ESPN) just wants the cubs to win. maybe they are still sour the D'backs beat the yankees in the WS in 01.

also if you are in a close game then you are going to use your best relief pitchers to hold the game but if you are down by 4-5 in the 6th it doesnt matter who you put out there the game is essentially out of reach. so you are just putting guys out there to eat the innings doesnt matter how many runs the other team scores then.

[Cry Havoc]

I will admit that I don't know enough about baseball statistically, nor historically to understand why run-differential is such an indicating factor.

Then why are you attempting to assert how poor of a stat it is? There's a reason that stat exists, and there's a reason that only one team has made it out of the first round with such a statistic.

Seriously, if you admit up front that you know next-to-nothing, my guess would be it's better not to be so haughty as to assume that you "know" it's wrong.

[DOMINATOR]

Then why are you attempting to assert how poor of a stat it is? There's a reason that stat exists, and there's a reason that only one team has made it out of the first round with such a statistic.

Seriously, if you admit up front that you know next-to-nothing, my guess would be it's better not to be so haughty as to assume that you "know" it's wrong.
how many of those teams that were outscored had the best record in their league?

a stat is just that a stat... doesnt mean anything. that is why the game is played.

[misterx91578]

:clap 2-0

[K-State Spur]

case and point, in the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks outscored the Yankees 38 to 11. Yet, it took a Mariano Rivera meltdown to enable them to pull the series out. Had they been unable, they'd have lost the World Series, despite more than tripling the Yankees runs scored. Didn't Pittsburgh once defeat the Yankees in the series despite being outscored by a large margin?


Of course, over a small sample size, run differential CAN be very misleading.

However, over the course of a 162 game season - it is usually very indicative. Teams like the D'backs are the exceptions and anomalies.

When - in over a century of MLB, only 5 teams have made the postseason with a negative run differential - that's not meaningless.

That's not to say that that Arizona can't be the second team ever to still win the series with that hanging over their head, but they are likely to be the underdog from here on out.

[Cry Havoc]

a stat is just that a stat... doesnt mean anything.

Ah yes. Fielding percentage means nothing. Batting average and slugging percentage means nothing. J.D. Drew is a better hitter than Albert Pujois. Well so what if Pujois has stats on his side. They mean nothing! :lol

Honestly, baseball is a statistician's dream sport for a reason. Just because unpredictable stuff can happen from time to time doesn't break the rule. It just shows there are exceptions. Golden State beating Dallas last year doesn't mean that seeds are worthless, does it? Does it mean that W-L record is worthless too, since Dallas won 67?

Or, more to the point, if you need to win a game, would you go with a pitcher who's got an ERA over 8.00, or one that has an ERA in the low 3.00s? Because if you honestly answer that question as you should (the latter), you cannot say that stats mean nothing. Even IF the pitcher with an ERA of 8+ has more wins, that hardly suggests he's a better pitcher, does it?

[DOMINATOR]

Ah yes. Fielding percentage means nothing. Batting average and slugging percentage means nothing. J.D. Drew is a better hitter than Albert Pujois. Well so what if Pujois has stats on his side. They mean nothing! :lol

Honestly, baseball is a statistician's dream sport for a reason. Just because unpredictable stuff can happen from time to time doesn't break the rule. It just shows there are exceptions. Golden State beating Dallas last year doesn't mean that seeds are worthless, does it? Does it mean that W-L record is worthless too, since Dallas won 67?

Or, more to the point, if you need to win a game, would you go with a pitcher who's got an ERA over 8.00, or one that has an ERA in the low 3.00s? Because if you honestly answer that question as you should (the latter), you cannot say that stats mean nothing. Even IF the pitcher with an ERA of 8+ has more wins, that hardly suggests he's a better pitcher, does it?

that is not my argument. all im saying is stats do NOT win games.

[K-State Spur]

I'll use the Mariners this year as an example. As of August, they were leading the wild card. However, they had the same run differential as the Orioles. The stats were pointing that they would more than likely fade down the stretch...which of course happened.

For every D'Backs, there are numerous squads like the Mariners. Every statistical group has a set of outliers.

[DOMINATOR]

The stats were pointing that they would more than likely fade down the stretch...which of course happened.
mariners also faced good teams above .500 down the stretch.

[K-State Spur]

that is not my argument. all im saying is stats do NOT win games.

except they do.

there is a high correlation between teams with the best run differentials and playoff squads.

there is a high correlation between team OPS and runs scored. there is a high correlation between WHIP and K/BB rates and runs allowed.

that doesn't mean that you have to necessarily have the statistical advantage to win the series. but I'm a GM, I'm going to feel much better about the team that I am assembling if that stats are in my favor.

[misterx91578]

except they do.

there is a high correlation between teams with the best run differentials and playoff squads.

there is a high correlation between team OPS and runs scored. there is a high correlation between WHIP and K/BB rates and runs allowed.

that doesn't mean that you have to necessarily have the statistical advantage to win the series. but I'm a GM, I'm going to feel much better about the team that I am assembling if that stats are in my favor.

explain the dbacks to me then

[K-State Spur]

mariners also faced good teams above .500 down the stretch.

yeah, to make the playoffs you have to beat a few good teams over the course of the season.

that said, an 88 win team may not be the best example to prove my point.

i'll stay with that, of the 16 teams that had a negative run differential this year, 14 of them had a losing record, 15 missed the playoffs.

in 2006, of the 13 teams that had a negative run differential, 12 had a losing record and 13 missed the playoffs.

in 2005, of the 16 teams that had negative run differential, 14 had a losing record, 15 missed the playoffs.

in 2004, of the 12 teams that had negative run differntial, 12 had a losing record and 12 missed the playoffs.

this is a correlation.

[DOMINATOR]

except they do.

there is a high correlation between teams with the best run differentials and playoff squads.

there is a high correlation between team OPS and runs scored. there is a high correlation between WHIP and K/BB rates and runs allowed.

that doesn't mean that you have to necessarily have the statistical advantage to win the series. but I'm a GM, I'm going to feel much better about the team that I am assembling if that stats are in my favor.
no they don't... you guys are looking at an entire season or putting a team together. im looking at most one series.
in 2004 no team has been down 3 games in best of 7 and won the series. statistically the red sox had 0 chance of winning YET they won the series.

[K-State Spur]

explain the dbacks to me then

a rare exception that can occur when baseball is played for over 100+ years. even if there is just a 1.5% chance that a team with that kind of differential can make the postseason, that still means it is likely occur 5 or 6 times over the past century.

however, trying to win on a regular basis while being outscored by your opponents over the course of a season isn't exactly a sound strategy. in fact, no team has ever made the playoffs in consecutive seasons under such conditions.

[misterx91578]

here is a stat no nl team has come back from down 0-2 in the nlds

[DOMINATOR]

yeah, to make the playoffs you have to beat a few good teams over the course of the season.

that said, an 88 win team may not be the best example to prove my point.

i'll stay with that, of the 16 teams that had a negative run differential this year, 14 of them had a losing record, 15 missed the playoffs.

in 2006, of the 13 teams that had a negative run differential, 12 had a losing record and 13 missed the playoffs.

in 2005, of the 16 teams that had negative run differential, 14 had a losing record, 15 missed the playoffs.

in 2004, of the 12 teams that had negative run differntial, 12 had a losing record and 12 missed the playoffs.

this is a correlation.

cool, dig up another stat, the team with the better regular season record wins the series how many times in the post season?


i'd expect this to be around .550-.600ish

[SrA Husker]

here is a stat no nl team has come back from down 0-2 in the nlds

And before 2004, no team in either league had come back from down 0-3 in a 7-game series, period.

[K-State Spur]

here is a stat no nl team has come back from down 0-2 in the nlds

it has, however, happened when the LCS were in the best of 5 format. want to guess to who?

[K-State Spur]

cool, dig up another stat, the team with the better regular season record wins the series how many times in the post season?


i'd expect this to be around .550-.600ish

i'd expect you're correct. but in last year's playoffs the better record only went 2-5. the only wins were mets in the first round and tigers in the LCS.

[JMarkJohns]

Then why are you attempting to assert how poor of a stat it is? There's a reason that stat exists, and there's a reason that only one team has made it out of the first round with such a statistic.

Seriously, if you admit up front that you know next-to-nothing, my guess would be it's better not to be so haughty as to assume that you "know" it's wrong.

You intimate too much. I never said I know next to nothing. I simply said I don't know enough of baseball's statistics or history to know why one particular stat is so damned important. It's one stat. Why not look at pitching stats? Isn't there a general understanding that good pitching teams go far in the postseason? Well, the Diamondbacks probably had a top-5 pitching staff in the NL, and of the NL team in the playoffs, may have the very best top to bottom, beginning to end.

I simply asked why run differential can trump other telling stats? So many are speaking in absolutes. Well, in baseball there are no absolutes.

I know enough of baseball to know that.

I think Dominator's response was exactly what I was looking for. If you win two of three in a series, then what the hell does it matter if you lose the one game by a shit-load of runs? You still take two of three.

The Diamondbacks have consistently been the best close-game team in the bigs this year. They were in far more games than they weren't. But every one in a while, they lose and lose big. So the fuck what? They won 90 games playing their smart baseball, using pitchers in spots only when they were within reasonable striking distance to win, or then allowing the "fall" guys like Medders, Nippert and Gonzalez to eat up the remaining innings.

It's one of the few things I applaud Melvin for. He handled the rotation and bullpen brilliantly. he has the best record in the NL and a 2-0 lead on the series favorite to show for it.

[K-State Spur]

the problem with that line of thinking is that when you get down big - that's almost always a loss. but when you play in close games - 'luck' factors in quite a bit. you can have the better bullpen, the better manager, but things still might not go your way.

that's why run differential is correlated to successful teams.

that doesn't mean that the diamondbacks can't win it all anyways (although I still don't think they will, but with their national league opposition, the pennant isn't a stretch), but run differential is not a meaningless stat.

[tsb2000]

The DBacks have as good of a shot to win the WS as anyone, if I do say so myself. :)

The ability to win close games is a sign of poise, if nothing else, and that says a lot.

[JMarkJohns]

the problem with that line of thinking is that when you get down big - that's almost always a loss. but when you play in close games - 'luck' factors in quite a bit. you can have the better bullpen, the better manager, but things still might not go your way.

that's why run differential is correlated to successful teams.

that doesn't mean that the diamondbacks can't win it all anyways (although I still don't think they will, but with their national league opposition, the pennant isn't a stretch), but run differential is not a meaningless stat.

This I can except. And, I never said it was meaningless. I asked why it was "nail in the coffin" relevent to a team's success.

Everyone wrote the Diamondbacks off because of it. Well, they are more prepared to scrap and scrape for a win than any team they'll face. Maybe they won't always have that opportunity, as you said, but in the playoffs pitching is more important than is offense, and if you take Medders, Nippert and Gonzalez out of the equation, the Diamondbacks staff is probably top-three in these playoffs. And before you say, well you can't just take those players out, as a matter of fact, you can, as Melvin rarely pitches them unless a game is out of hand. They are the fall guys. Unless the game is out of hand or in lengthy extras, they won't see the diamond, 'cept through the bullpen fence.

I get what you're saying, but the Diamondbacks have had to battle from the beginning of the year onward just to stay in the playoff picture. They've been fairly consistent during that stretch of making sure they won two of three in a series. With just about a dozen or so exceptions, they've been successful.

My main point isn't to diminish the stat itself, but merely the perception that it's the almighty tell of a team. I think it's a highly subjective statistic that works with teams with terrible pitching staffs and good offenses better than it works with teams with very good pitching staffs and average/mediocre offenses. With the pitching the Diamondbacks have, they'll be in more games than not, and with it and their manager and their knack for timely hitting and experience having to gut wins out, I'll give them an edge in the majority of close games.

[JMarkJohns]

I am realistic. I think they will win this series, compete in the next with a good chacne to advance to the World Series. If such happens, I think they'll need Byrnes, Young, Drew, Jackson and Reynolds to be hotter than hot at the plate with every pitcher on or they'll be lucky to force a game six.