The NBA's Most Efficient Defenders-Shooting Guard

[meta2007]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=5574


Individual defense is one of the toughest things to quantify in the NBA because so much of what goes into defensive performance is not captured by the league's official statistics. This study will introduce one way to rate the effectiveness of individual defenders and rank the best at each position.

To accomplish this, we surprisingly need only one metric: John Hollinger's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating. The PER takes all measurable NBA statistics, weights each category, and runs all the numbers through a complex formula to come up with a value that represents a player's overall contribution to his team.

Every player in the NBA has his own PER, which indicates the damage he does to his opponents. Thanks to some fine work that has been done at 82games.com, we can also gauge how well guys limit the damage done by the player they are matched up against from game-to-game.

The methodology for this is inexact, but gives us a solid idea of how players perform defensively. When you compile the results of this over an entire season, you get a good indication of which players are performing well on defense, and which ones are not.

Using raw opponent PER numbers to create league-wide rankings would not yield a completely accurate picture, since each position on the floor has its own standard of what would be considered good offense/defense (an "average" point guard may have a different PER than an "average" center, for example).

So, this list will be broken down by position. The primary position each player plays has been determined by using stats kept at 82games.com; the position each player spent the most time playing last season is considered his primary spot in the lineup.

In order to qualify for these rankings, a player had to play in at least 30 percent of his team's minutes last year (an average of at least 14 minutes per game).

Let's take a look at who shined in 2006-07 when it came to clamping down on their "opposite number":



Shooting Guards

1. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Opponent PER: 11.7

2. Keyon Dooling, Orlando Magic
Opponent PER: 12.0

3. Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets
Opponent PER: 12.2

4. Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls
Opponent PER: 12.2

5. Jamal Crawford, New York Knicks
Opponent PER: 12.5

[stretch]

These stats are obvious crap if Dirk and Ginobili are at the top of their lists, and Parker is second on the PG list.

Not to mention that Bowen isn't even on the list.

If your entire team defense is great, then it is going to boost your own individual defensive stats as well. Doesn't mean you are a great defender.

[WalterBenitez]

Stats sucks! especially when they don't agree with your reasoning.

[meta2007]

Dirk won regular season MVP because he is a maverick, and Parker won final MVP because he is a spur. What's wrong with that?


These stats are obvious crap if Dirk and Ginobili are at the top of their lists, and Parker is second on the PG list.

Not to mention that Bowen isn't even on the list.

If your entire team defense is great, then it is going to boost your own individual defensive stats as well. Doesn't mean you are a great defender.

[ceds]

Manu's taking the credit for some of Bowens work in this analysis

I think when calculating it they just use the other teams sg's rather then who Manu actually played on

Top 5 sg defenders

1. Kobe
2. Raja
3. Wade
4. Manu
5. TMac

[meta2007]

Why don't say Bowen's reputation is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?

Moreover, why don't say Duncan and Parker's MVP is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?


Manu's taking the credit for some of Bowens work in this analysis

I think when calculating it they just use the other teams sg's rather then who Manu actually played on

Top 5 sg defenders

1. Kobe
2. Raja
3. Wade
4. Manu
5. TMac

[anakha]

Hasn't this topic been debated already?

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74708

[ceds]

Hey Manu's a good defender dont get me wrong but he's not the best at his position

In our system lesser rated guys like Iggy would be rated as a top 5 IMO

[WalterBenitez]

Why don't say Bowen's reputation is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?
Moreover, why don't say Duncan and Parker's MVP is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?

:lol yeap, I agree Bruce needs a marketing advisor in that area.

[mathbzh]

Manu is a good defender but you just have to read this to understand that this ranking is bullshit.



Power Forwards

1. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Opponent PER: 13.1

2. Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves
Opponent PER: 13.4

3. Elton Brand, Los Angeles Clippers
Opponent PER: 13.9

4. Jorge Garbajosa, Toronto Raptors
Opponent PER: 14.7

5. Darko Milicic, Orlando Magic
Opponent PER: 14.9

Once looked upon as a shooter who couldn't play defense, Dirk has certainly worked to improve that area of his game, ranking number one among power forwards last season. Now that Darko has gotten more NBA playing time, he's showing he can play some defense, and it's nice to see an "under the radar" player like Garbajosa get some ink.

...
Or all your measurement of individual defense is not correct

[ambchang]

Why don't say Bowen's reputation is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?

Moreover, why don't say Duncan and Parker's MVP is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?
Because we actually watched the games.

[hater]

Manu is a top 5 defender among SG. that's all we need to know

[meta2007]

I think you should use 'I' rather than 'we'!

Do you think you can respresent all spurs' fans?


Because we actually watched the games.

[shaq_h8ter]

I think you should use 'I' rather than 'we'!

Do you think you can respresent all spurs' fans?

The Royal We Man! :smokin

[ambchang]

I think you should use 'I' rather than 'we'!

Do you think you can respresent all spurs' fans?

Since you have elected not to read a thread you started yourself, perhaps I could recap. Aside from what I had in mind, the thread also included ceds response


Manu's taking the credit for some of Bowens work in this analysis

I think when calculating it they just use the other teams sg's rather then who Manu actually played on

Top 5 sg defenders

1. Kobe
2. Raja
3. Wade
4. Manu
5. TMac

To which you responded:


Why don't say Bowen's reputation is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?

Moreover, why don't say Duncan and Parker's MVP is taking the credit for some of Manu's work?

So two person would contribute to a "we".

Then also, there are these comments:


These stats are obvious crap if Dirk and Ginobili are at the top of their lists, and Parker is second on the PG list.

Not to mention that Bowen isn't even on the list.

If your entire team defense is great, then it is going to boost your own individual defensive stats as well. Doesn't mean you are a great defender.


Stats sucks! especially when they don't agree with your reasoning.

BTW, my universe is more than just Spurs fans, I also consider other people as a general term "we" if that party and I are on the same side of the argument.

[meta2007]

You are a very interesting person! I want to buy you a drink.


Since you have elected not to read a thread you started yourself, perhaps I could recap. Aside from what I had in mind, the thread also included ceds response



To which you responded:



So two person would contribute to a "we".

Then also, there are these comments:





BTW, my universe is more than just Spurs fans, I also consider other people as a general term "we" if that party and I are on the same side of the argument.

[meta2007]

Of course, a big reason for it is because Manu is a spur, and spurs is a championship team. As championship team player, they benefit each other. Actually, in all lists, championship team players are ranked at high positions.

I believe Manu is well deserved it, just the same as Duncan and Parker's MVP!


:toast

[jman3000]

as far as efficiency, i'd think manu would suffer a bit due to his habit of gambling everynow and then... although he's reigned that in quite a bit.

[Kori Ellis]

The formula assumes that Manu is guarding the opponents shooting guard, right?

When actuality, he's oftentimes not - Bowen is. This is a completely useless thing to me.

[meta2007]

Manu did not need to guard anyone? I remember in this year's finals, Bowen guard James. Is James a shooting guard?

BTW, I think Bowen is not in the list because he is offensively limited. This list is about 'efficient'.


The formula assumes that Manu is guarding the opponents shooting guard, right?

When actuality, he's oftentimes not - Bowen is. This is a completely useless thing to me.

[Kori Ellis]

Manu did not need to guard anyone?


No, Manu does not guard the best shooting guards in the league.

[meta2007]

But he does guard someone!

BTW,I think many team use sf to guard shooting guard in certain situations. Spurs is not the only team. So, I think it is fair for Manu to be no.1 in this shooting guard list.




No, Manu does not guard the best shooting guards in the league.

[Kori Ellis]

But he does guard someone!

Umm.. yes, but this formula compares Manu's PER to the opponent's shooting guards PER. This is why it is flawed and doesn't tell you anything that mean anything. Because when the shooting guards are good, Manu doesn't guard them.

[meta2007]

BTW,I think many team use sf to guard shooting guard in certain situations. Spurs is not the only team. So, I think it is fair for Manu to be no.1 in this shooting guard list.

[Kori Ellis]

You can praise Manu's defense if you want. But he's not one of the top one-on-one defenders in the league. And he doesn't guard the best shooting guards in the league. It's a very flawed formula.

[meta2007]

According to your logic, James should more deserve MVP than Parker!


You can praise Manu's defense if you want. But he's not one of the top one-on-one defenders in the league. And he doesn't guard the best shooting guards in the league. It's a very flawed formula.

[Kori Ellis]

According to your logic, James should more deserve MVP than Parker!

What do James and Parker have to do with anything?

Neither one of them would be an MVP candidate for defense.

[meta2007]

Parker won MVP because he has much better teammates.

BTW, paker was ranked no.2 in point guard list for defense.



What do James and Parker have to do with anything?

Neither one of them would be an MVP candidate for defense.

[Kori Ellis]

Parker won MVP because he has much better teammates.
...


Again, that doesn't have anything to do with this particular formula being flawed.

[stretch]

Dirk won regular season MVP because he is a maverick, and Parker won final MVP because he is a spur. What's wrong with that?
:wtf

How does that have anything to do with their ability to play defense?

[meta2007]

Some spurs' fans are so interesting!

Manu sacrificed himself a lot for the whole team. But they cannot even tolerate him to be ranked at no.1 position even in an unofficial list.


:madrun

[Kori Ellis]

Some spurs' fans are so interesting!

Manu sacrificed himself a lot for the whole team. But they cannot even tolerate him to be ranked at no.1 position even in an unofficial list.


:madrun
:lol

It's logical that he'd be on top on a lot of lists. However, this isn't one of them.

[meta2007]

This one is also logic.

As I said above, many team don't use sg to guard sg. For example, Tmac is ranked at no.3 in this list. In fact, he didn't guard best sg either, Battier did.


:lol

It's logical that he'd be on top on a lot of lists. However, this isn't one of them.

[Kori Ellis]

This one is also logic.

As I said above, many team don't use sg to guard sg. For example, Tmac is ranked at no.3 in this list. In fact, he didn't guard best sg either, Battier did.

I don't know what you don't understand but it's not logical because it assumes that every player (not just Manu) guards the person of the same position.

You might say many players don't, and that's true. But if one SG only guards the opposing shooting guard 5% of the time ... And another SG guards the opposing shooting guard 40% of the time ... And another SG guards the opposing shooting guard 80% of the time, then you can't compare the players, get it?

[LakeShow]

:corn:

[meta2007]

I also don't understand why Parker won MVP since it means most valuable player. I think James more deserves it.


I don't know what you don't understand but it's not logical because it assumes that every player (not just Manu) guards the person of the same position.

You might say many players don't, and that's true. But if one SG only guards the opposing shooting guard 5% of the time ... And another SG guards the opposing shooting guard 40% of the time ... And another SG guards the opposing shooting guard 80% of the time, then you can't compare the players, get it?

[Kori Ellis]

I also don't understand why Parker won MVP since it means most valuable player. I think James more deserves it.

Then you should write to the journalists who voted and ask them why they voted for him.

[meta2007]

Then you should write to the author of this artile and ask him whey he ranked that way.

BTW, I am a Manu's fan and also a Spurs' fan. I am really happy to see him to be recognized, even this is not an offical list. I think it is uncessary to be so serious about it. :)


Then you should write to the journalists who voted and ask them why they voted for him.

[Cry Havoc]

I think one reason Manu is so highly rated on this list is because of his playmaking ability. He might let a man past him, but chances are that guy doesn't score because of our post rotation.

And even if he does, it's only 2 points, and for every 2-4 points Manu gives up, he comes up with a steal, block, or charge taken. Stats won't show deflections and wear on the opponent, but he does that well too, especially since he can wear a defender out as well as the man he's guarding.

But Kori makes a good point -- he's not guarding the other team's primary scorer.

That combined with the fact that stats tend to be heavily favored towards steals and TOs and it's easy to see how this dynamic emerged. We have yet to list a stat for just locking down on your man and not letting him score. There really needs to be a "defended" stat that takes into account the avg. scoring ratio of a player and compares it to the amount he scores while being guarded by a particular player. You could also add in the number of times he penetrates past the other player but doesn't score as a slight detraction to the defending player in question: This would remove the effect that players like Duncan have on saving a defender's butt repeatedly.

[Kori Ellis]

Then you should write to the author of this artile and ask him whey he ranked that way.

:lol

If it was just based on opinion (like MVP) then it would be logical to ask the writer.

I already know why they ranked them that way. They use a bad formula. And I'm not serious about it. You just don't seem to get it.

[Kori Ellis]

There really needs to be a "defended" stat that takes into account the avg. scoring ratio of a player and compares it to the amount he scores while being guarded by a particular player. You could also add in the number of times he penetrates past the other player but doesn't score as a slight detraction to the defending player in question: This would remove the effect that players like Duncan have on saving a defender's butt repeatedly.

They will never really have a defended stat because you'd have to look at every single play and determine who each player was guarding, if there were any switches, missed rotations, etc. That's why defensive analysis comes more from watching the games and asserting an opinion, rather than trying to break it down statistically.

[Reggie Miller]

Okay. I'll give it a shot.

On the PER Defense Metric:

1. The PER Defense formula assumes that Ginobili is guarding the other team's shooting guard.

2. Ginobili rarely, if ever, defends the opposite shooting guard if that player is the opponent's primary scoring threat.

3. Bowen normally guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer, which will be the starting shooting guard on most teams.

4. Another factor that plays a small role is that Ginobili does not always play starter's minutes.

5. For these reasons, the formula is flawed. The formula looked at the Spurs' opponents' starting shooting guards. Since this was the lowest opponent PER number, Ginobili was ranked # 1, despite the fact that Bowen, not Ginobili, is usually guarding the opponent's shooting guard.


On the Finals MVP:

1. The Finals MVP always goes to a member of the winning team. I believe that this is actually a requirement for the award, not just custom.

2. In recent memory, the voters have looked almost exclusively at offense.

3. In recent memory, the voters have only awarded the Finals MVP to starters. (I didn't check, and my memory gets a little fuzzy before 1988.)

4. "Valuable" is a tricky word in the English language. It is not susceptible to a precise definition. (One man't trash is another man's treasure.) Most people understand the most valuable player to be the player with the best overall performance. As mentioned above, the award usually goes to the player with the best offensive performance, not the best overall performance.

5. Putting all this together, we soon realize that the Finals MVP is fairly restricted. Only a: 1) starter 2) with name recognition 3) who is a primary scorer in the series 4) and on the winning team will be considered.

6. By these criteria, LeBron James was never even under consideration. Only Parker and Duncan really had a chance at the award.

IMHO, Bowen always deserves some serious consideration for the Finals MVP, especially this year. However, Parker was absolutely critical. Cleveland was the toughest defense the Spurs faced, and Parker was the only player able to find and exploit a mismatch. Without Parker, the Spurs would have won, but I don't think they could have swept them. Also, by going only four games, the Finals did not last long enough for Ginobili and Duncan to recover from their sub-par games.

[ChumpDumper]

At least Manu isn't Greek.

[Cry Havoc]

I also don't understand why Parker won MVP since it means most valuable player. I think James more deserves it.

What are you smoking? Would the Cavs have lost MORE if James wasn't on their team? How are you valuable in a single series to your team if you get swept?

With James: 4-0 sweep
Without James: 4-0 sweep.

With Parker: 4-0 sweep.
Without Parker: 4-2 maybe?

Now explain to me why James is more valuable as a Finals player to the Cavs. A loss is a loss.

[Cry Havoc]

They will never really have a defended stat because you'd have to look at every single play and determine who each player was guarding, if there were any switches, missed rotations, etc. That's why defensive analysis comes more from watching the games and asserting an opinion, rather than trying to break it down statistically.

Simple fix: Just hire some baseball jocks to do the scorekeeping. They'd love that challenge.

[v2freak]

Okay. I'll give it a shot.

On the PER Defense Metric:

1. The PER Defense formula assumes that Ginobili is guarding the other team's shooting guard.

2. Ginobili rarely, if ever, defends the opposite shooting guard if that player is the opponent's primary scoring threat.

3. Bowen normally guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer, which will be the starting shooting guard on most teams.

4. Another factor that plays a small role is that Ginobili does not always play starter's minutes.

5. For these reasons, the formula is flawed. The formula looked at the Spurs' opponents' starting shooting guards. Since this was the lowest opponent PER number, Ginobili was ranked # 1, despite the fact that Bowen, not Ginobili, is usually guarding the opponent's shooting guard.


On the Finals MVP:

1. The Finals MVP always goes to a member of the winning team. I believe that this is actually a requirement for the award, not just custom.

2. In recent memory, the voters have looked almost exclusively at offense.

3. In recent memory, the voters have only awarded the Finals MVP to starters. (I didn't check, and my memory gets a little fuzzy before 1988.)

4. "Valuable" is a tricky word in the English language. It is not susceptible to a precise definition. (One man't trash is another man's treasure.) Most people understand the most valuable player to be the player with the best overall performance. As mentioned above, the award usually goes to the player with the best offensive performance, not the best overall performance.

5. Putting all this together, we soon realize that the Finals MVP is fairly restricted. Only a: 1) starter 2) with name recognition 3) who is a primary scorer in the series 4) and on the winning team will be considered.

6. By these criteria, LeBron James was never even under consideration. Only Parker and Duncan really had a chance at the award.

IMHO, Bowen always deserves some serious consideration for the Finals MVP, especially this year. However, Parker was absolutely critical. Cleveland was the toughest defense the Spurs faced, and Parker was the only player able to find and exploit a mismatch. Without Parker, the Spurs would have won, but I don't think they could have swept them. Also, by going only four games, the Finals did not last long enough for Ginobili and Duncan to recover from their sub-par games.

Well said, however, I don't agree that Cleveland was the toughest defense the Spurs played. Utah and Denver were much more physical, for example.

[Supergirl]

You can praise Manu's defense if you want. But he's not one of the top one-on-one defenders in the league. And he doesn't guard the best shooting guards in the league. It's a very flawed formula.

I agree that Hollinger's formula is flawed, and I agree Manu doesn't guard the best SGs in the league, but I think you (and others) underestimate Manu's defense. I would say he's our best exterior defender after Bowen. He frustrates his share of good players, and often does the best job when Bowen isn't on the floor.

[Reggie Miller]

Well said, however, I don't agree that Cleveland was the toughest defense the Spurs played. Utah and Denver were much more physical, for example.

I wouldn't argue with that. I probably should have said "most successful," not "toughest." I would like to credit Cleveland, rather than thinking the Spurs' offense just went to sleep for two games. (Honestly, it's probably a little of both.)

[Cry Havoc]

I agree that Hollinger's formula is flawed, and I agree Manu doesn't guard the best SGs in the league, but I think you (and others) underestimate Manu's defense. I would say he's our best exterior defender after Bowen. He frustrates his share of good players, and often does the best job when Bowen isn't on the floor.

Manu is probably the best intangibles guard on defense in the game. He's so quick and smart at getting into lanes and disrupting plays. He just loves to run amok and wreak havoc out there.

When you look at our guardplay, and our post defenders (hopefully Oberto REALLY steps it up now that he played solidly in the playoffs), this team has to be among the best defensive squads ever.

Parker is a top 5 defensive PG now.
Manu is a solid defender with great intangibles.
Bowen - Best defender in the game at his position, top 5 in the NBA.
Duncan - Best defender in the game. Period.
Oberto - The slight question mark, but a really smart player.

Then then you have Finely and Horry who each can have great nights, and Horry might be worth his creaky legs if for no other reason than his brain on the court is a huge asset. He can coach our other players about how to set up for certain offensive looks.

How amazingly fortunate we are. Should be set up for another title run this year. If we had D-Rob anywhere near his peak, this team wouldn't be the greatest defensive team in NBA history, it would be the greatest team in all of sports! ...perchance to dream.

[stretch]

I also don't understand why Parker won MVP since it means most valuable player. I think James more deserves it.
Are you stupid?

[smeagol]

We need the season to start soon!

[stretch]

Parker is a top 5 defensive PG now.

You're nuts.

Chauncey Billups.
Jason Kidd.
Devin Harris.
Earl Watson.
Baron Davis.
Deron Williams.
Mike James.
Andre Miller.
Monta Ellis.
Allen Iverson.


Give me all their defense over Parker's.

[Kori Ellis]

I agree that Hollinger's formula is flawed, and I agree Manu doesn't guard the best SGs in the league, but I think you (and others) underestimate Manu's defense. I would say he's our best exterior defender after Bowen. He frustrates his share of good players, and often does the best job when Bowen isn't on the floor.

Why would you think I underestimate him? I only said he's not the best in the league. :wtf

What a weird statement.

[meta2007]

Wow! Spurs' fans are the most interesting people in the world!
:elephant


Are you stupid?

[stretch]

lol, this guy is funny

[ambchang]

You're nuts.

Chauncey Billups.
Jason Kidd.
Devin Harris.
Earl Watson.
Baron Davis.
Deron Williams.
Mike James.
Andre Miller.
Monta Ellis.
Allen Iverson.


Give me all their defense over Parker's.


While Parker being top 5 in defense is questionable, I would never ever rank Earl Watson (please post me up, I am 5-5);
Baron Davis (I mean, since when did he ever play defense?);
Mike James (ball hog supreme who's only concern is getting the ball back on offense, sort of like Starbury light).
Andre Miller (Slow, slow on defense)
Monta Ellis (didn't watch him that much, and I think he's a shooting guard)
Allen Iverson (Gambles way too much)

I would however, take Kidd, Hinrich and Chris Duhon over Parker, maybe Harris and Billups.