zekes
10-09-2007, 01:40 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=3054860
What might have been the biggest upset in college football history appears to be nothing more than a minor setback for the team on the wrong end of that score.
USC was sacked by Stanford but it could be a minor setback for the Trojans.
After losing to Stanford as a 41-point favorite on Saturday, USC found itself perched at No. 7 in both polls of BCS significance on Sunday. The coaches' poll and the Harris poll, each of which accounts for one-third of the formula that determines the national championship game participants, dropped the Trojans only six spots after their monumental loss. The AP poll, which is no longer part of the BCS equation, dropped them from No. 2 to No. 10.
While there's never a guarantee that a team with one loss will have a chance to play for the national title, USC can already draw encouragement from not being sent to the back of the line of once-beaten teams. With a remaining schedule that includes road trips to No. 9 Oregon, No. 2 Cal and No. 14 Arizona State, the Trojans have an opportunity to wash away much of the stench from Saturday's embarrassing defeat.
And at the rate top-10 teams have been falling in college football (nine in the last two weeks), it's not hard to envision USC working its way up another five spots by the start of December. The big question, which can't be answered today, is how voters would ultimately weigh the Stanford loss if forced to decide between the Trojans and some other team for a spot in the national championship game. But at least for now, those voters don't seem to be making a big deal of it.
The BCS computers, however, have a different take. Three of them dropped USC all the way out of the top 20, and that will certainly hold the Trojans back until they can re-establish themselves with a quality victory or two. But don't be deceived by what you see when the official BCS standings make their debut on Sunday. Respect in the polls is what matters most on the road to the BCS, so the Trojans are much closer to the top than they may appear.
Mock BCS standings
Team Average
1. LSU 1.000
2. California .912
3. Ohio State .907
4. Boston College .827
5. South Florida .826
6. Missouri .683
7. South Carolina .654
8. Virginia Tech .596
9. West Virginia .5902
10. Oregon .5899
Others of note: (12) Oklahoma, (13) USC, (20) Hawaii
With both polls and five of the six computer ratings now available, here's a glimpse at what the BCS standings would look like this week. LSU is the clear-cut No. 1 team. The Tigers are top-ranked on all but two ballots in the coaches' poll and in all but one computer, which rounds up to a seemingly perfect BCS average. Cal and Ohio State are basically in a dead heat for second. They have equal computer scores after the high and low rankings are thrown out, so the Bears' narrow advantage over the Buckeyes comes from the polls.
If both teams go undefeated the rest of the way (along with LSU), Cal is likely to remain in the No. 2 spot in the BCS. The Bears' computer rankings will benefit more from the remaining schedule than the Buckeyes' will, so OSU needs to get past Cal (or LSU) in both polls to have a chance of playing for the national title.
• South Florida, on average, is ranked as the second-best team by the computers. The Anderson & Hester ratings have the Bulls at No. 1, and every other computer has them ranked second or third.
• The human voters like Oklahoma, but the computer ratings say Missouri is the best team in the Big 12. The Tigers are ranked in the top five of four computers, which boosts them to sixth in the BCS. The Sooners, in contrast, have a best computer ranking of 18th and don't even appear in the top 25 of some ratings. Therefore, OU is all the way down at No. 12 in the mock standings.
• Despite being ranked 16th in both polls, Hawaii's BCS ranking is currently 20 because the Warriors are nowhere to be found in the computers. That, of course, is a reflection of schedule strength, or lack thereof. Some of the computers rank more than just the 119 teams in the Bowl Subdivision (I-A) and have Hawaii's schedule ranked as weaker than several Championship Subdivision (I-AA) teams. Kenneth Massey's computer even has some Division II schools ahead of the Warriors right now.
What might have been the biggest upset in college football history appears to be nothing more than a minor setback for the team on the wrong end of that score.
USC was sacked by Stanford but it could be a minor setback for the Trojans.
After losing to Stanford as a 41-point favorite on Saturday, USC found itself perched at No. 7 in both polls of BCS significance on Sunday. The coaches' poll and the Harris poll, each of which accounts for one-third of the formula that determines the national championship game participants, dropped the Trojans only six spots after their monumental loss. The AP poll, which is no longer part of the BCS equation, dropped them from No. 2 to No. 10.
While there's never a guarantee that a team with one loss will have a chance to play for the national title, USC can already draw encouragement from not being sent to the back of the line of once-beaten teams. With a remaining schedule that includes road trips to No. 9 Oregon, No. 2 Cal and No. 14 Arizona State, the Trojans have an opportunity to wash away much of the stench from Saturday's embarrassing defeat.
And at the rate top-10 teams have been falling in college football (nine in the last two weeks), it's not hard to envision USC working its way up another five spots by the start of December. The big question, which can't be answered today, is how voters would ultimately weigh the Stanford loss if forced to decide between the Trojans and some other team for a spot in the national championship game. But at least for now, those voters don't seem to be making a big deal of it.
The BCS computers, however, have a different take. Three of them dropped USC all the way out of the top 20, and that will certainly hold the Trojans back until they can re-establish themselves with a quality victory or two. But don't be deceived by what you see when the official BCS standings make their debut on Sunday. Respect in the polls is what matters most on the road to the BCS, so the Trojans are much closer to the top than they may appear.
Mock BCS standings
Team Average
1. LSU 1.000
2. California .912
3. Ohio State .907
4. Boston College .827
5. South Florida .826
6. Missouri .683
7. South Carolina .654
8. Virginia Tech .596
9. West Virginia .5902
10. Oregon .5899
Others of note: (12) Oklahoma, (13) USC, (20) Hawaii
With both polls and five of the six computer ratings now available, here's a glimpse at what the BCS standings would look like this week. LSU is the clear-cut No. 1 team. The Tigers are top-ranked on all but two ballots in the coaches' poll and in all but one computer, which rounds up to a seemingly perfect BCS average. Cal and Ohio State are basically in a dead heat for second. They have equal computer scores after the high and low rankings are thrown out, so the Bears' narrow advantage over the Buckeyes comes from the polls.
If both teams go undefeated the rest of the way (along with LSU), Cal is likely to remain in the No. 2 spot in the BCS. The Bears' computer rankings will benefit more from the remaining schedule than the Buckeyes' will, so OSU needs to get past Cal (or LSU) in both polls to have a chance of playing for the national title.
• South Florida, on average, is ranked as the second-best team by the computers. The Anderson & Hester ratings have the Bulls at No. 1, and every other computer has them ranked second or third.
• The human voters like Oklahoma, but the computer ratings say Missouri is the best team in the Big 12. The Tigers are ranked in the top five of four computers, which boosts them to sixth in the BCS. The Sooners, in contrast, have a best computer ranking of 18th and don't even appear in the top 25 of some ratings. Therefore, OU is all the way down at No. 12 in the mock standings.
• Despite being ranked 16th in both polls, Hawaii's BCS ranking is currently 20 because the Warriors are nowhere to be found in the computers. That, of course, is a reflection of schedule strength, or lack thereof. Some of the computers rank more than just the 119 teams in the Bowl Subdivision (I-A) and have Hawaii's schedule ranked as weaker than several Championship Subdivision (I-AA) teams. Kenneth Massey's computer even has some Division II schools ahead of the Warriors right now.