Hollinger Season Projections

[duncan228]

I don't have a link, I don't belong to ESPN's Insider.
A friend sent this to me.
As always, I enjoy good press on Duncan.

Rank: 13 - TIM DUNCAN

SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .513 .710 23.7 13.1 4.0 56.4 14.1 11.1 25.7 19.0 27.00
2003-04 .501 .599 24.3 13.6 3.4 53.4 11.6 10.0 27.1 19.0 27.14
2004-05 .496 .670 24.4 13.3 3.3 54.0 11.6 8.2 26.6 19.4 27.12
2005-06 .484 .629 21.3 12.6 3.6 52.3 13.5 10.6 25.1 18.7 23.13
2006-07 .546 .637 23.5 12.4 4.0 57.9 14.5 11.9 25.5 18.7 26.20
2007-08 (projected) .519 .623 21.5 12.2 4.0 55.06 15.49 11.96 24.99 18.5 23.72

2006-07 season: One of the more amazing subplots of the MVP race was how everyone conveniently ignored Duncan's existence. While this is remarkably easy to do given his lack of spectacular highlights, folks really ought to know better. Duncan ranked fourth in the league in Player Efficiency Ratio, and more importantly was second among players who missed less than 30 games. He was, at worst, the third-best defensive player in the league, and his team had the league's best victory margin and eventually won the title.

At the end of the year, I sized it up as a close race between Dirk Nowitzki and Duncan for the trophy, with Nowitzki barely getting the nod. But apparently nobody else felt that way. Of the 129 media members who voted for the MVP, exactly three of them put Duncan in their top two -- or one more than put Tracy McGrady there. Duncan finished a distant fourth in the voting, behind Nowitzki and two players -- Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant -- that, over the course of the season, he fairly clearly outclassed.

His season is practically a one-man essay on the difference between perception and reality. The Spurs limited him to 34.1 minutes per game, which made his per-game averages (20.0 points and 10.6 rebounds) some of the worst of his career, which led to the perception that he wasn't near his peak performance level.

Duncan already suffers from a perception problem, of course, because his game has almost no sex appeal. While he's very skilled and extremely sound, he does very few things during the course of the game that would make you blurt out the word awesome, while the likes of Nash and Bryant are far more entertaining.

And finally, there was a perception issue regarding his team. Because we rate teams by win-loss record and tend to ignore the underlying factors, most folks totally overlooked the fact that the Spurs, not Dallas or Phoenix, were the league's best team in the regular season. Average victory margin is a much better indicator of quality than won-loss record, and San Antonio was way ahead of the league in this category -- which explains why the Spurs eventually won the title.

But since Duncan was perceived as having an off year for the third-best team in the West, his contributions were largely overlooked. Adding insult to injury, a clearly inferior defender beat him out for the Defensive Player of the Year award (an honor Duncan has never won, which is insane), in a vote where more than half the writers left him off their ballot entirely.

On the court, Duncan shot a career-high 54.6 percent from the floor, had the No. 8 rebound rate among centers (and yes, he's a center, not a power forward -- veteran readers know not to get me started on this), and boosted his Player Efficiency Rating back up to near his career peak after foot trouble resulted in a bad year in 20005-06. But here's my favorite Duncan stat -- other than his one true weakness (free-throw shooting), he ranked in the top 25 among centers in every statistical category.

One big difference was that he had shot horribly anytime he was more than a couple feet from the basket in 2005-06. Last year, he improved from 35 percent to 42.2 percent on non-layup 2-pointers -- enough of an improvement that his overall marks were outstanding.

Scouting report: Duncan can post up from either block but prefers to operate from the left, where he uses the glass as well as any player who has every played the game. He loves to face up and shoot a 15-footer high off the board, but he also will fake the shot and get to the rim, or entangle his arms in the defender's on the way up in order to draw a foul. When he backs in, Duncan can go to the hook over his left shoulder, or lean in and then fade back for a short jumper. He rarely spins back to the baseline and should use this maneuver more often as a counter.

Duncan has become a very good passer out of double teams, ranking 10th among centers in assist ratio. He doesn't lose the ball in traffic nearly as much as he did in his younger days, primarily because he forces the action less against rotating defenses. He's also a great outlet passer.

Defensively, Duncan usually doesn't guard the opponents' best post player unless it's crunch time. But when given the assignment, his combination of length and discipline makes him virtually impossible to shoot over. Duncan never leaves his feet to send shots into the seats, so his defensive game sometimes goes underappreciated, but his ability to alter shots without leaving the boards exposed is second to none. This also makes him a huge factor in help defense; in fact, it's why the Spurs' perimeter defenders make a point of funneling opposing scorers into Duncan.

2007-08 outlook: Duncan is technically a free agent next summer, but don't hold your breath. The Spurs can and will extend his deal for the max before the season starts.

On the court, Duncan's projection isn't as optimistic as you might expect, because the projections don't know that Duncan's foot was hurt in 2005-06. That doesn't mean the projections are invalid; what it does mean is that we should know what went into them if we want to know how much confidence to put into what they're telling us.

That said, foot problems like Duncan had two years ago can and do come back, so this isn't a trifling concern. At 31, Duncan cannot expect to improve statistically -- or can he? Regardless, he should be among the game's best players again next season -- even if nobody is willing to acknowledge it until June.

Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing

[E20]

Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing
?

[duncan228]

?


:lol
I didn't say it made sense, I said it was a good read!

[duncan228]

For those of us without Insider.

Rank: 22 - TONY PARKER

2006-07 season: I might be in the minority here, but to me the most interesting part of Parker's year was not the details of his wedding, but rather the improvement in his jump shot. Parker has long been a layup machine; the difference is that now he's a layup machine who also can hit outside shots, making him virtually impossible to guard.

The progression can be seen by looking at both Parker's shot makeup and his percentage from each distance. Parker always has been able to get to the basket, and in fact he took and converted fewer last year than he has in other seasons. He's ridiculously good at them, as only three guards with more than 150 attempts converted a higher percentage of their shots at the rim (those three were Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade and Jose Calderon). In contrast, 16 of the league's point guards made fewer than half of these shots, including some pretty good ones (Mo Williams, Mike Bibby and T.J. Ford, for instance).

Tony Parker, Shooting By Season
3-pointers Basket area Long 2-pointers Free throws
Attempts Pct. Attempts Pct. Attempts Pct. Attempts Pct.
2004-05 156 27.6 619 59.3 244 39.3 323 65.0
2005-06 36 30.6 652 66.1 353 41.2 358 70.7
2006-07 38 39.5 554 63.0 391 41.6 350 78.3

As you can see by the chart, the difference in Parker between now and a couple years ago is that a) he's eschewed the 3-pointer in favor of taking more 2-pointers, b) he's massively improved as a foul shooter, and c) he's a lot more comfortable shooting the ball from midrange instead of taking the ball all the way to the basket.

The latter point hasn't translated into better percentages from distance; instead he's taking the shots in more situations. Two years ago he only pulled the trigger on it if he was wide, wide, wide open, something that happened fairly often as opposing guards went under screens and dared him to shoot. Now he needs much less space to let it rip, which has enabled him to become a much bigger part of the offense.

It's had another effect too -- when it gets to the end of the clock, he no longer has to drive into traffic. And because of that, his turnover ratio went from 12.3 in 2005-06 to 10.3 a year ago -- the best of his career, the 18th-best among point guards, and a pretty remarkable figure for somebody who drives so much.

We saw the results in the Finals, when Parker stunned Cleveland by repeatedly hitting long jumpers en route to winning the MVP trophy. Credit Parker, for all the work he's done with shooting coach Chip Engelland, but also credit the Spurs' organization. They're the only team in the league I know of that has even broached the idea of altering a player's shot after he's become an established star in the league. Around most of the league a player's shot is considered sacrosanct, even if it's obvious the dude can't shoot.

In this instance, I wonder if Parker will be the tip of the iceberg. Around the league, there are a great many players whose strokes could use work, but today the general approach is to just take more reps using the same horrid form. The Spurs broke down Parker's shot and built it back up again -- his shot is totally different than it what it was, and now it's a real weapon. Sacred cows can seem impossible to kill sometimes, but all it takes is one team willing to fly in the face of conventional wisdom and succeeding with it, and then the lemmings quickly follow.

Scouting report: Parker is one of the quickest players in the league, especially going to his right, and is a deadly finisher in the basket area from either side. When he can't get all the way to the rim, he has a soft touch on floaters that he puts just out of the reach of rotating big men. He also uses a floater shot-fake -- making him perhaps the only player in the league with this club in his bag -- that he uses often and to great effect.

Going to his right, Parker has added a change of pace move to complement his straight-line speed. And when he goes left on a pick-and-roll, he'll often dribble right into the big man and then quickly spin to his right, sealing the big guy while Parker cruises in for a lay-up. Add in his improved 2-point jumper and he's one of the best scoring point guards in basketball.

On the negative side, Parker isn't a natural passer and when he drives he's usually looking to score. He's also not a 3-point threat, though that might change if his jump shot continues progressing.

Defensively, Parker is underrated. He's bigger than people think at 6-2, and with his quickness he does a good job of keeping opposing dribblers in front of him -- not that it matters with Tim Duncan behind him.

2007-08 outlook: It's hard to believe Parker is only 25. Though I suppose it's possible his newfound celebrity status will swallow him whole, Parker seems remarkably capable of dealing with all the distractions -- with the drastic improvement in his jumper being the latest bit of evidence. Playing in the wilds of Bexar County instead of L.A. or New York is undoubtedly helpful in this regard. We're likely to see Parker's best seasons in the next two to three years, and if so we might see him a Finals MVP trophy once again.

Most similar at age: Kevin Johnson

[duncan228]

For those of us without Insider.

Rank: 21 - MANU GINOBILI

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .438 .737 14.7 4.5 3.9 55.6 19.4 14.1 17.5 6.5 14.75
2003-04 .418 .802 17.5 6.1 5.2 53.6 21.2 11.7 21.1 8.5 18.54
2004-05 .471 .803 21.6 6.0 5.3 60.9 20.1 12.0 23.2 8.8 22.35
2005-06 .462 .778 21.6 5.1 5.2 59.3 19.9 10.2 23.2 7.5 22.43
2006-07 .464 .860 24.0 6.3 5.1 60.9 18.3 10.9 25.1 9.6 24.18
2007-08 (projected) .447 .833 21.9 5.7 4.8 59.13 18.65 10.88 23.77 8.51 21.70

2006-07 season: Usually secondary players on championship teams become somewhat overrated. Ginobili is the glaring exception to that rule. He's perceived as a nice, solid, complementary player because he averages 16.5 points a game and comes off the bench and plays in a small city. Guess again: This guy's a superstar. If he played in a bigger market or played more minutes, it would become more apparent just how good Ginobili is, and what a travesty it was that he neither made the All-Star team nor won the Sixth Man award.

Ginobili ranked ninth in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating last season. Not ninth among shooting guards or ninth among internationals -- I mean ninth out of everyone in the universe, right behind Kevin Garnett and just ahead of Carlos Boozer. He ranked ahead of five players -- Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady, and Chris Bosh -- who finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting.

For some of you, this is evidence that Ginobili did indeed have a great year. For others, this is merely evidence that I am crazy. But go through the numbers and tell me where he was worse. Per-minute, if you compare what Manu did against those five superstars (Boozer, Arenas, Nash, McGrady, and Bosh), it's pretty easy see why he ranked ahead of them -- even though the general perception would be fairly unanimous that those players had better years.

I emphasize, per minute. Once you adjust for the fact that Ginobili only played 27.5 minutes per game, his numbers become astounding. Per 40 minutes, his rates of points, assists and rebounds were right in line with the other players on the list (see chart).

Player Pts/40 Rk Reb/40 Rk Ast/40 Rk T0/40 Rk TS% Rk PER
Manu Ginobili 24.0 4 6.3 3 5.1 4 3.05 3 60.9 2 24.18
Carlos Boozer 24.2 3 13.5 1 3.4 5 3.00 2 58.8 3 24.11
Gilbert Arenas 28.6 1 4.6 5 6.0 3 3.21 4 56.5 5 24.07
Steve Nash 21.0 6 4.0 6 13.2 1 4.28 6 65.4 1 23.87
Tracy McGrady 27.5 2 6.0 4 7.2 2 3.35 5 51.5 6 23.28
Chris Bosh 23.5 5 11.2 2 2.6 6 2.70 1 57.7 4 22.72

But where he really stands out are the secondary numbers. His turnover ratio is much better than the other perimeter players' and nearly as good as Boozer's; and his true shooting percentage is better than everyone's except Nash. And while I don't have room for it in the chart, his defensive numbers blow these guys away -- among shooting guards, Ginobili had the ninth-best rate of blocks per minute and the fourth-best rate of steals, and he did it while staying in San Antonio's team concept.

So why did we perceive the other guys as having superstar years but not Ginobili? Because we still worship at the altar of per-game averages, and there's simply no way for a player who plays 27.5 minutes per game to get numbers gaudy enough to get our attention.

That his minutes remain so low shows remarkable restraint on the part of the Spurs, who prefer to keep their silent star bottled up until they really need him (like say, in Games 5 and 6 against Phoenix, when he played 38 and 36 minutes) and otherwise keep him fresh. It also shows unusual esprit de corps on the part of an A-list talent, as Ginobili willingly went from starter to sixth man without so much as a peep of dissent.

Scouting report: Ginobili is almost impossible to contain on his left-handed drives to the rim because he changes angles and directions so effectively. Additionally, he has a knack for drawing contact and getting to the line, helped by some of the league's more impressive thespian skills.

He's also improved leaps and bounds as a shooter. Ginobili shot a career-best 39.6 percent on 3-pointers, and did it while attempting over 100 more than the year before. He's become very adept at stopping after one dribble to his left and pulling up for the 3, something he uses frequently on screen-and-roll plays if he sees his defender go behind the screen. He's even better from the corners, where he made 46.7 percent last year.

Ginobili is an underrated defender with great hands, and is the best in the league at leaping to deflect a pass thrown by his own man. The Spurs rarely play him against big-time scorers because they have Bruce Bowen, but when asked, Ginobili does creditable work. He's also huge on the glass, sporting the second-best rebound rate among shooting guards.

Finally, he's a flashy ballhandler who dribbled through an opponent's legs on at least two occasions last year -- once on Cleveland's Daniel Gibson in Game 3 of the Finals, and another time on Seattle's Rashard Lewis in the regular season. He's also a master of the length-of-the-court bounce pass, though he doesn't pass as well on the drive.

One other thing worth mentioning is that last year was the second in a row that Ginobili scored more points on the road, and the difference was huge. He averaged a whopping 4.1 points per game more in away games, where he shot both more frequently and more accurately than at home.

2007-08 outlook: Ginobili is 30 and his quickness is one of his chief assets, so it might be unrealistic to expect him to play at this level again next season. Nonetheless, his past three seasons have all been All-Star caliber, and there's no reason to doubt he can extend that streak to four. While his exploits don't get the proper recognition because of his limited minutes, he'll continue to be among the best players in the league.

Most similar at age: Eddie Jones

[ducks]

Defensively, Parker is underrated. He's bigger than people think at 6-2, and with his quickness he does a good job of keeping opposing dribblers in front of him -- not that it matters with Tim Duncan behind him.

[E20]

Defensively, Parker is underrated. He's bigger than people think at 6-2, and with his quickness he does a good job of keeping opposing dribblers in front of him -- that it matters with Tim Duncan behind him.

[peskypesky]

I see Duncan do a LOT of things that make me say "awesome". Blocks, bank shots, crucial rebounds, and most of all, collecting Championship trophies.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

TP has taken a lot of criticism over the years, but say what you will, the guy has busted his ass in the gymnasium to make himself into a great player. He's gotten better every year, he's improved every facet of his game, and his best years are still ahead of him. If he starts reliably knocking down the 3, then forget about it. He will be completely impossible to guard.

[barbacoataco]

Most surprising to me: more than half of all writers left Duncan off the DOP ballot completely. That is beyond ridiculous.

[barbacoataco]

That should be required reading for all non-Manu fans.

[meta2007]

Manu is a great playmaker, and this will be showed more and more in future. Even someday he is not that quick, he will be always in All-Star caliber.

[Nikos]

Pretty good assessment. But I wouldn't call him a superstar BECAUSE he plays 27.5mpg. If he took more shots and got more playing time and still maintained the same PER I might say he is borderline.

But he does have two other offensive options, a great defensive system he works in, and gets to play more fresh and without as much pressure as other #1 guns of other teams.

Ginobili is simply an excellent 2nd/3rd gun on a great team. Which is pretty good in and of itself. But I still can't call him a superstar -- in the 2005 playoffs he did play like a SUPERSTAR considering his MPG went up and his PER was 25 in that run.

I hope he can maintain this production this season. Hopefully Popplaying him 27mpg has paid off. Even though at times I do wish he could sustain 33-34mpg (because the team would be better for it, if he could actually handle it).....

[DDUBB1770]

Ouch compared to Patty Ewing, thats just not right at all...

[timmy21_4rings]

I have a feeling that TP has not worked well during this off-season. May be he got something over his head.

[TMTTRIO]

Interesting and it's a pretty good assessment. As for minutes are concerned I think Manu can play about 30 minutes a game. Even Manu said last year that he felt like he could play a few more minutes then he was getting and even the coaches were saying that because he was coming off the bench they were having a hard time coming up with enough minutes for him.

[ducks]

I have a feeling that TP has not worked well during this off-season. May be he got something over his head.
?
he played in the offseason
and he worked on his three point shooting
pop is giving him time off because he has worked hard this offseason!

[jman3000]

i remember a few years ago during the jason kidd thing, a writer wrote a story about tony parker not being a "great white shark". saying that he didnt have the intangibles and toughness to arrive at the level of a "great white shark". i wonder if his progression has changed his mind about that.

[lrrr]

What impresses me about TP is that even after winning 2 rings, being an allstar and signing a fat contract, he still shows the desire to improve and work at his game and the willingness to be taught.

[timmy21_4rings]

?
he played in the offseason
and he worked on his three point shooting
pop is giving him time off because he has worked hard this offseason!

He did not play anything meaningful in the off-season. Went to French team, came back and went back to France. Not sure if he had taken any steps to improve his skills.

he is given rest because he did lot of activities not necessarily done stuff that might improve his skills.

[duncan228]

What impresses me about TP is that even after winning 2 rings

Parker has 3 rings.

[Dingle Barry]

Patrick Ewing doesn't deserve to eat Duncan's shit

[exstatic]

Pretty good assessment. But I wouldn't call him a superstar BECAUSE he plays 27.5mpg. If he took more shots and got more playing time and still maintained the same PER I might say he is borderline.

...

in the 2005 playoffs he did play like a SUPERSTAR considering his MPG went up and his PER was 25 in that run.

So when his minutes go up, in your second example, and his PER goes thru the roof, do you still not consider him A SUPERSTAR?

[duncan228]

The Ewing comparison made me shake my head.
But he does say lots that is true about Duncan and his importance to this team.
There's always things to pick apart, but I thought overall it wasn't that bad.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I think Manu is the most underappreciated player in the league. Not only does he put up incredible numbers, but the style and flair with which he plays the game makes him incredibly exciting to watch. That, and he's the best teammate any player could wish to play beside.

Here's to you, Manu! :toast

[exstatic]

Parker has 3 rings.
Right, but at the point where they brought on Chip (2005), and scrapped his old jumper and invented his new one, he only had two.

[duncan228]

I think Manu is the most underappreciated player in the league. Not only does he put up incredible numbers, but the style and flair with which he plays the game makes him incredibly exciting to watch. That, and he's the best teammate any player could wish to play beside.

Here's to you, Manu! :toast

I'm with you.
The flair. His passion that's so visible on the court.
He can be so exciting. I'm hoping that's the Manu we see this season.

[duncan228]

Right, but at the point where they brought on Chip (2005), and scrapped his old jumper and invented his new one, he only had two.

I know that.
Did I misinterpet the poster I quoted?


What impresses me about TP is that even after winning 2 rings, being an allstar and signing a fat contract, he still shows the desire to improve and work at his game and the willingness to be taught.

[Nikos]

So when his minutes go up, in your second example, and his PER goes thru the roof, do you still not consider him A SUPERSTAR?

It was a good run for him, but it wasn't an entire SEASON. Other players have to grind out 38mpg + more touches, with LESS help and still maintain excellent PER's.

I don't think Manu's PER would go UP if he had to play 35mpg+ and had less offensive help....

[lrrr]

I know that.
Did I misinterpet the poster I quoted?

Yes, I meant that he went through the rebuilding process after ring 2, but before ring 3.

[duncan228]

Yes, I meant that he went through the rebuilding process after ring 2, but before ring 3.

Sorry. I misunderstood.