Will it snow in San Antonio this week?

[Kori Ellis]

:blah

[MannyIsGod]

Ok, now does this mean it happens anywhere in San Antonio, or at the offical airport weather station?

[AlamoSpursFan]

I've got 5 large says it snows 3 inches on Steve Browne's dome.

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

I've got 5 large says it snows 3 inches on Steve Browne's dome.

:lol

:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EWX/AFDEWX

Some more info for anyone who cares....


000
FXUS64 KEWX 191033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
433 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST CYCLE, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS APPEAR MORE
SIMILAR, AT LEAST WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. ALSO, THEY BRING AN
AIRMASS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS COLD THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THUS, THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON AN AVERAGE
SOLUTION.


I'm sure some of you know about this already, and I'm sure some don't care, however...

They use like a bunch of different models that take different variables into account when making forcasts. Some are better for certain situations, others for differen't ones. Anyhow, there is a general disagreement among the models at this time, so they're basing the forcast on a consensus of what the models say.



SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE TODAY. THEN WARMUP ENSUES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.


Blah blah, gonna get a bit cooler tomorrow but it will warm up on Monday and Tuesday.



AS THE WINTER SOLSTICE OCCURS AT 642 AM CST ON WEDNESDAY THE 21ST, IT
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER. ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE WILL
CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS IS SHOWING STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT GENERATES A WIDE AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW,
GFS IS THE LONE MODEL TO DO SO AND WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 POPS.
IF GFS VERIFIES, THEN EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
FALL BELOW ZERO BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.


I'm still suprised this shit is still being processed by the model to this point. It's still a long shot, but I'm willing to bet parts of Bexar county are going to get at least an inch of snow. If the models agree in the next couple of days we'll know for sure, but chances are that we won't know shit till it actually happens.



DGEX AND CANADIAN
SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN 10 POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD, AS WELL.


This is the fucked up thing. The GFS model is showing snow on wednesday night, but these models are saying no snow on that night, just rain. But they are also saying snow on the NEXT night. It's possible we'll get snow on back to back nights. Fucking nuts man, seriously.



STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. BY
CHRISTMAS DAY, A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES SHOWING A
SLIGHT RECOVERY.


the rest is just BS about it getting a bit warmer during the weekend.

I wish I hadn't thrown away my VBOOKIE money tonight on the Spurs because I have a feeling it's going to happen (the snow).

[Useruser666]

If someone claims snow then I want to be able to build a snow man out of it. Anything less is bullshit!

[KEDA]

Im IN!!!!!


SNOW
BABY
SNOW

[T Park]

this is texas.

it dont snow here.

Dont get your hopes up kiddies.

[Hook Dem]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EWX/AFDEWX

Some more info for anyone who cares....



I'm sure some of you know about this already, and I'm sure some don't care, however...

They use like a bunch of different models that take different variables into account when making forcasts. Some are better for certain situations, others for differen't ones. Anyhow, there is a general disagreement among the models at this time, so they're basing the forcast on a consensus of what the models say.



Blah blah, gonna get a bit cooler tomorrow but it will warm up on Monday and Tuesday.



I'm still suprised this shit is still being processed by the model to this point. It's still a long shot, but I'm willing to bet parts of Bexar county are going to get at least an inch of snow. If the models agree in the next couple of days we'll know for sure, but chances are that we won't know shit till it actually happens.



This is the fucked up thing. The GFS model is showing snow on wednesday night, but these models are saying no snow on that night, just rain. But they are also saying snow on the NEXT night. It's possible we'll get snow on back to back nights. Fucking nuts man, seriously.



the rest is just BS about it getting a bit warmer during the weekend.

I wish I hadn't thrown away my VBOOKIE money tonight on the Spurs because I have a feeling it's going to happen (the snow).
What an about face from the other day!

[GrandeDavid]

Fuckin snow! Damn, its almost summer down here below the equator. I just got back from a mountain bike race and I'm freakin burning up hot and about to crack open a cold one. Damn snowbirds, yous guys!

[ZStomp]

I'm trying to figure out the odds.....how it pays out? Can anyone help???

[Hook Dem]

I'm trying to figure out the odds.....how it pays out? Can anyone help???
For Example: If you bet 100 on measurable snow...odds8/1... and it does it, then you win 800.

[ZStomp]

^^

What about "it won't snow at all"-- 1/4

and i bet $100..does that mean i win $25?

[MannyIsGod]

this is texas.

it dont snow here.

Dont get your hopes up kiddies.

Hey stupid, it snows in Texas EVERY YEAR.

[MannyIsGod]

What an about face from the other day!

Yes, I have become a believer. Maybe wishfully so, but a believe nonetheless.

[MannyIsGod]

LMAO, no sooner do I come out on the snow bandwagon for San Antonio and now it looks as though the air just won't be cold enough for snow.

[Kori Ellis]

I thought it was going to be 25 degrees for the low on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.

[Kori Ellis]

What about "it won't snow at all"-- 1/4

and i bet $100..does that mean i win $25?

Yes, you'd get back your original $100, plus win $25.

[ducks]

boy vbookie has been setup for a long time

you would think if people had a problem with the odds they would have asked their questions a long time ago

[T Park]

Hey stupid

The intelligence of this debate has increased tenfold.


Thanks Manny.


It snows in this part of texas every year??


Got a link to that?


Dallas?? Panhandle???? Noooo shitt.

This part of Texas it never snows.


Get a life already.

[Kori Ellis]

Didn't it just snow here last February when we were out of town?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Didn't it just snow here last February when we were out of town?

Yes. I have pictures from it. It was on Valentine's Day.

It snowed for about 15-20 minutes at my house.

[3rdCoast]

15-20 minutes barely even fucking counts. this thread is bullshit. it wont snow enough to build a fucking snowman or to enjoy long enough.

[Kori Ellis]

this thread is bullshit.

Umm ... if you don't like it, don't participate. Someone requested a vBookie for this, so we made one. :rolleyes

[3rdCoast]

good point. i bet on it so i guess i got no room to talk,my bad.

[MannyIsGod]

The intelligence of this debate has increased tenfold.


Thanks Manny.


It snows in this part of texas every year??


Got a link to that?


Dallas?? Panhandle???? Noooo shitt.

This part of Texas it never snows.


Get a life already.

A Link? What the hell do you need a link for? It snows in Texas every year, and you said it didn't.

And actually, we get measurable snow in this part of texas once every 3 years or so on average, so you're still an idiot if you say it doesn't snow here.

Actually Tpark, you're still an idiot regardless of any snow.

Have a nice day!

[MannyIsGod]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201000-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
622 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

...WARM AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER DAYS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COLDER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY...INCLUDING
LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF GILLESPIE...BLANCO...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARPER TO ROUND MOUNTAIN TO TAYLOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE 20S OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME SCATTERED LOWS NEAR 20 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.


Looks like SA is going to miss out. Not enough cold air or moisture this time around.

[MannyIsGod]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 201124 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004

ADD IN WIND ADVY

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COLUMN WILL
DEEPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 0.5 AND 0.75.
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AND A BETTER MOIST FEED OFF THE GULF WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY NIGHT JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

A MYRIAD OF LOWS IN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS HAVE CAUSED
THE MODEL RUNS TO SHIFT THE DEVELOPING ROCKIES TROUGH A LITTER
FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. THE UPSHOT IS STILL AN OCCASIONAL PHASED
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE VORT
MAX DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., AND WHICH PART OF TEXAS, IS UP FOR QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE AIRMASS IS NORTH OF ALASKA WHERE TEMPS ARE RUNNING -35 TO -40
FAHRENHEIT. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES
THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A PHASED
NORTHWEST FLOW LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

CAN EXPECT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT HILL COUNTRY, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST SECTIONS. NOT MUCH RAINFALL
SINCE PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL LACKING AND STEERING WINDS ARE NEAR
40 KTS. WILL NOT REMOVE THE FEW SNOW FLURRIES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING. IT
MAY HAPPEN, IT MAY NOT HAPPEN. MOST TIME THE MOISTURE LEAVES BEFORE
THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIP.


The problem appears that it keeps arriving earlier. If they timing were to hold the front off untill wednesday night, then without the sun to heat temps above freezing when overrunning occours, we'd at least have ice but more thank likely snow flurries or some light accumulations.

But it's coming in about 10 hours too soon. Bummer.

[Taco]

I'm getting my snow chains out!!!






Mrs Taco says I put them on too tight :eyebrows

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, I was going over the models, and they point to a rainy new years eve. Fucking bummer.

[GrandeDavid]

Kori, snow in February in San Antonio last year I don't recall, however, I do recall an ice storm.

[travis2]

It snowed. Wasn't much...and it had melted off by 9 AM or so...but it was snow...

[Hook Dem]

Just remember...Jan 1985, we were supposed to get some flurries and it snowed 15 inches. You just never know. I do know that if they put it in the forecast, it probably won't happen. If they don't, it often "sneaks"up on them. Snow always comes in from the southwest here in San Antonio. It is caused by overrunning. Stay tuned!

[MannyIsGod]

000
Fxus64 Kewx 211602 Aaa
Afdewx

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/san Antonio Tx
952 Am Cst Tue Dec 21 2004

.update...
Focus This Update Concerns Frozen Precip Thursday Night/friday
Morning. Gfs Model Soundings Indicate Temp Profile Below Freezing
Throughout The Column Across The Cwa. Moisture Will Be Limited And
Any Snow Developing Will Suffer Evaporation On The Way To The
Surface. Therefore...went With Snow Flurries. Area Of Coverage
Should Be Roughly Along And North Of Highway 90. Otherwise...little
Change To Earlier Forecast. Very Pleasant Today Ahead Of The Big
Weather Change Starting Wednesday.

&&

.prev Discussion...
At 06z...vad Wind Profiles And Satellite Imagery Bear Out The
Increasing Southerly Winds And Boundary Layer Moisture. Goes
Derived Precipitable Water Shows 0.50 Inch Has Reached Austin With
0.75" About To Move Into Atascosa And Karnes Counties. The Eta 850mb
Winds Are Verifying Well With The Profiler Winds. At Present The
Cold Front Is Booking South At 25 Kts Into North Texas. A Surface
Trough Just West Of The Rio Grande Is Progged To Moves East Across
The Southern Half Of Texas Today. This Along With A Retarding
Westerly Flow Aloft Will Have The Cold Air Arriving In The Hill
Country As Early As 6 Pm. The Myriad Of Upper Troughs Traversing
The U.s. Will Allow The Cold Air To Gradually Build South Into Texas
Through Friday. Tonight Lows Will Be At Or Slightly Below Normal.
Increasing Cloudiness Wednesday Night And Cold Air Advection Will
Bring In Lower Dewpoints And Much Colder Air. The Next Vort Max Is
Due To Arrive Thursday Night While The Deeper Cold Air Is In Place.
May Get A Chance At Freezing Rain With This One With Accumulations
Of Less Than 1/4 Inch. Full Blow Dry Northwest Flow Is In Place By
Friday Afternoon With Clearing Or Cleared Skies And Lighter Winds.
Christmas Morning Could Be The Coldest With Temps Approaching Record
Levels. For The Start Of Next Week, The Upper Flow Quickly Become
Southwesterly With Temperatures Returning To Seasonal Normals.

[travis2]

Ok, now does this mean it happens anywhere in San Antonio, or at the offical airport weather station?

bump this question...it never got answered.

Also...define "measurable".

[MannyIsGod]

measurable by NWS defentiion is anythign more than a trace

so .01 inches of snow would be measurable

[MannyIsGod]

btw, .75 inches of precipitable water will produce over 2 inches of snow, however, there won't be that much around by the time thursday and friday nights roll around.

if it's as high as .75 though, we'll definetly see accumulations. But the higher the moisture the warmer the air stays, so it's a balancing act. They'll probably update the discussion by 5pm, and the model predictions get more accurate as the day actually gets closer.

[Taco]

Gimmie an S!!!

[Kori Ellis]

bump this question...it never got answered.

Also...define "measurable".

Anywhere in San Antonio.

Anything more than a trace.

[MannyIsGod]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTH RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING HELPED ON BY A PROGRESSIVELY MOVING UPPER TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY DARK WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL PLUNGE READINGS INTO THE LOW 20S HILL
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COLD RIDGE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 40 DURING THE
DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ENHANCED DIFLUENCE AND
JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA..THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS SNOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME..SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA TO INDICATE HOW MUCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOULD BE
COOL AND DRY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WINDS ALOFT
SHIFT TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

It's on, the way the jetstream is setup it's dragging colder air than anticipated in AND in addition it's bringing in moisture. It's fucking ON>

[Manu20]

Looks like it is going to snow in south texas :elephant


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
320 am CST Wednesday Dec 22 2004


Discussion...an exceptional weather event continues to shape-up for
our region...as an Arctic airmass enters the semi-tropics with ample
moisture and cold temperatures off the surface to initiate winter
weather in the Rio Grande valley. Temperatures at or below 0 degree c
are forecasted by both ETA model and GFS from 22.0000z model runs. The
availability of moisture during the entrenchment of this rather high
stack of cold temperatures remains a high probability from early
Friday morning through 6 PM Saturday afternoon. Algorithms for snow
accumulations from both GFS and ETA model suggests the possibility of
minor snow just west of the Rio Grande valley late Friday
afternoon...entering the western valley by 06z Saturday...then
absent after 06z Saturday through the forecast period. This in
itself is exceptional...as this algorithm is highly skewed away from
the ability to generate snow in the semi-tropics...therefore most
likely under-played. Current temperature forecasts by ETA model and GFS
are in good agreement and show good run to run consistency. ETA model GOES
out to 12z Friday morning...and places surface freezing temperatures
over the extreme western valley at that time...with 0 to -7 degrees
c 850 temperatures extending from a line from mfe to Raymondville (0
degree c)...west to Zapata (-7 degree c). During this period...moisture
streams northwest from the Gulf of Mexico over the cold
airmass...with GFS showing moisture advection even more aggressive
and continuing from 12z Friday to 18z Saturday...with quantitative precipitation forecast of 0.25 to
0.50 earmarked for most of the Rio Grande valley all day Friday.
Temperatures in mfe are forecast to be 32 degrees f by dawn...and rise
..if any...One or two degrees f all day Friday. All of the wintry
indicators for Friday are reinforced by projected Saturday morning
temperatures of 24 degree f in mfe...26 at pil (just 5 miles from the
Laguna madre)...25 degree f in both bro and hrl. A hard freeze warning
may be necessary from Friday through Saturday morning...as
temperatures are forecasted to dip from Friday morning lows of 31 degree f to
Saturday morning lows of 29...and I might add the Sunday morning
radiational freeze of 29 degrees f over many areas of the Rio Grande
valley.


This forecast continues on the same track as the previous
thinking...with a skew to higher probability of precipitation Friday with more aerial
coverage of frozen precipitation...colder temperatures Saturday and
Sunday...with a hard freeze possible Friday through Sunday...fog
restricting visibilities to 2sm for most of Friday through Saturday...as
wet-bulbing occurs. A decision on any need for winter weather
advisories or the extent of the freeze or freezing rains during the
Friday through Saturday period will likely be made today. This event
is so foreign and abnormal for our region that a closer scrutiny of
the synoptic situation and any prudent weather products will be made
by a team of several meteorologists at the National Weather Service
office in Brownsville later today.

[Taco]

Rally for LJ !!!
As many of you know LJ has not seen snow in SA
If it does NOT snow let's all Rally at Kori & LJ's house with our Snow Cone / Raspa / Ice shaver machines and we'll cover the Ellis front yard with man made snow!!!


Oh yea Mouse, remember
DON'T EAT THE YELLOW SNOW!!!

[1369]

Looks like LJ may see aome snow on the ground after all...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTH RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING HELPED ON BY A PROGRESSIVELY MOVING UPPER TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY DARK WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL PLUNGE READINGS INTO THE LOW 20S HILL
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COLD RIDGE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 40 DURING THE
DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ENHANCED DIFLUENCE AND
JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA..THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS SNOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME..SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA TO INDICATE HOW MUCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOULD BE
COOL AND DRY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WINDS ALOFT
SHIFT TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

[samikeyp]

*doing my snow dance just for LJ*

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just don't let it snow until I get home on Christmas Eve...then it can snow all it damn wants.

[MannyIsGod]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS RUN CONFIGURES THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE BRINGER OF SNOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. THUS...SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FASTER AND WITH LESS QPF POTENTIAL. LATEST ETA CARRIES
EVEN LESS QPF. MAY GET LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES HERE AFTER ALL
BUT WITH CONTINUED RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH FLURRIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CHRISTMAS MORNING QUITE COLD ESPECIALLY IF ANY SNOW
LINGERS. WARMING TO START CHRISTMAS DAY AND EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

Well, this one isn't nearly as optomistic as the one last night, but I still think we're in for snow.

The ETA model has been falling short on everything so far, and the GFS is closer, but has been falling short as well. In the Valley they are predicting snow because of how badly the models have been handling the forcasts down there, and I think that somewhat should apply to this as well. The models don't have enough historical information onthis type of weather in South Texas, especially in the valley to account for everything accurately and so they get thrown into a loop, kinda.

They have a 30 percent chance right now here, and 60% chance in the valley!!! But the valley will probably get more rain than anything, with maybe some ice and snow. They have a lot more moisture but the air just isnt' as cold down there.

If the low coming through can get strong enough to generate more lift we'll have enough moisture to eek out a couple of inches, maybe a bit more.

I just have a good freaking feeling.

[Kori Ellis]

So Manny, you think it's coming tonight?

Or Friday?

[Spurminator]

It just snowed today here in Dallas Texas.

We may actually get off work early, which has to be hilarious for all of the Northerners who work here.

[MannyIsGod]

It'll all be Friday unless we get some really really late Thursday.

This won't just be at night however, if it happens it will happen during the daytime hours of Friday. The high Friday is only going to be at 33, so it'll be cold enough the entire day.

[Shelly]

I am not happy about this. Not happy at all :(

[Duff McCartney]

It may not be snowing now...but it's fucking cold.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Where in Texas would it be a surefire place to snow this weekend?

A friend of mine just cancelled her trip to NM because a lot of the highways are closing down in NM.

She'd like to see snow this Christmas - a real snow - not just the basic we'll probably get tomorrow or Friday.

[MannyIsGod]

Drive torwards Lubbock if it's that important. I know much of North Texas has had some serious snowfall and I don't think it'll be warm enough to melt it. There were parts of the panhandle with heavy snow advisories today, and most of North Texas was in a Winter Storm Warning.

[Duff McCartney]

My family and I are planning on heading up to Oklahoma sometime after Christmas to see some snow. But I don't think it will happen.

[MannyIsGod]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
912 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT MINS UP A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR THURSDAY, HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE MIX AFTER LOOKING UPSTREAM TOWARD THE
DEVELOPING LEAF OF HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE DIGGING UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST AND A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH CLOUDS. FOR FRIDAY, MADE A
SUBTLE CHANGE TO PRESENT A UNIFORM SLIGHT CHC, THEN LOW CHC POPS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM LOW TRANSFORMS INTO A
POSITIVELY SHEARED UPPER TROUGH BEFORE SWINGING ACROSS. NEW ETA SHOWS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH SLOWER, AND IF
CORRECT, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD INCREASE AND
EXTEND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, WILL NOT CHANGE THE FRIDAY
EVENING FORECAST AND LET THE MID SHIFT COMPARE THIS TREND AGAINST THE
UPCOMING GFS RUN.

Good news for those who want snow. The low is forming and it's forming stronger than earlier anticipated. Also the increased cloud cover is an indicator of increased moisture. This is a good thing because even though increased moisture keeps it warmer tonight, it will also keep it cooler on thursday and give more fuel to the snow fire...so to speak.

[Hook Dem]

Damn Manny....you missed your calling. You're doing a better job than any of our local personalities. Keep it up and whip up a blizzard while you're at it! :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Damn Manny....you missed your calling. You're doing a better job than any of our local personalities. Keep it up and whip up a blizzard while you're at it! :lol

That's because all you're average weatherman does is read that discussion there and make pretty maps to go along with it. The NWS does all the work, and these fuckers on TV always act like it's "their" forcast.

[Hook Dem]

Precicely my point!

[MannyIsGod]

EARLY EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 850 MB WHICH IS A LEVEL WHERE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNT
RULES OF THUMB ARE GENERATED. THE H7-H5 LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
MOSTLY OPEN WITH A PART OF THIS LOW CUT-OFF AND PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE SHAPE OF
THE H5 LOW BRIEFLY BECOMING MORE ROUNDED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH TX
GULF COAST WHICH MIGHT POINT TOWARD A SLIGHT DEEPENING DESPITE A
FILLING OF THE LOW ACCORDING TO THE ETA. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXTENDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND RAISED
THE NUMERICAL POPS TO 10-20 PERCENT. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT H85 AND LOWER SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS; IN OTHER WORDS STILL NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. QUICK PEEK AT GFS SHOWS SIMILAR FEATURES TO
THE ETA WITH A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK. IF THIS WERE A
RAIN EVENT, THESE SUBTLETIES WOULD BE HARDLY WORTH MENTIONING, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN THE SLIGHTEST FROZEN ACCUMULATION HAS HUGE
IMPACTS CONSIDERING THE DAY OF THE YEAR. OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED.


The low still has a chance of closing off which would increse lift 10 fold and there is aboundant moisture where snow forms. However, the problem lies with the incredible lack of moisture at the surface. The air is so dry that if snow does form and beings to fall, it'll take a serious hit in evaporation at the lower levels, so more than likely we won't see anything. Not even flurries. There's still a chance however, crazier things have happend, but I woudln't stay up all night watching if I were you.

[ZStomp]

Bring it on bitches....

[timvp]

I don't mean to go SAT on you but uh ...

timvp : snow :: Karl Malone : Championship Rings

Break out the t-shirts, folks. Snow ain't happening.

[T Park]

It never was.

Maybe in January or February, but December is too damn early.

I love how the nimrods like Bill Taylor a week ago

"IT MIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE!!!"

Oh BS, it is not, STFU, and just report the REAL weather tool.

[MannyIsGod]

It never was.

Maybe in January or February, but December is too damn early.

I love how the nimrods like Bill Taylor a week ago

"IT MIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE!!!"

Oh BS, it is not, STFU, and just report the REAL weather tool.

Bitch, just why is December too early? It's snowing SOUTH Of here in Texas as we speak, yet December is too early why? This is actualy the COLDEST historical week for San Antonio, so again, why is it too early?

Perhaps you can clue us in with your "intelligence"?

BTW, the only reason is not snowing is due to a lack of surface moisture, so again, why is it too early?

You want to know why I can't stand you? You open your ignorant mouth EVERY FUCKING TIME YOU SHOULDN'T!

[MannyIsGod]

NEWSFLASH- TPARK IS A MORON WITH A LARGE MOUTH.

LJ, if you want to see snow today, take a 1 hour drive south and I bet you'll see it falling.

Alice is about 2 hours away though -

This is out of the Corpus NWS office


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A
STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS GIVES CREDENCE TO A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH AN
UPPER LOW FORMING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 00Z 50H ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCH
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN WAS FORECAST
BY THE MODELS LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...160 KNOTS AT
25H...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TODAY. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE
REGION WITH KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
IN PLACE IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ATTM. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DRY LAYER IN PLACE FROM SURFACE TO 2KFT ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW...ALICE ASOS HAS BEEN
REPORT LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DUE TO WET BULB
COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS WET-BULB COOLING WILL HELP BRING THE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND STAY THERE FOR THE DAY. SUSPECT MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DRYING AS CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW
3KFT FROM KBKS TO KINGSVILLE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND FOR THIS MORNING MAINLY AS A
PRECAUTION WITH THE AMOUNT OF TRAVEL ON THIS DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OR PROBLEMS BUT ANY WINTRY
PRECIP FOR SOUTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT.

WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD/DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STILL
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. BUT IT LOOKS AS
IF THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL LEAD TO SATURATION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EVENT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THIS CHRISTMAS
EVE. STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AND
WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASCERTAIN ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES FOR TNGT.
WILL GO AHEAD WITH ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.


If the models are underplaying this low STILL, then when it moves through the area tonight it could be strong enough to drag moisture to the surface levels to a point where we actually do see snowfall.

There are so many unkowns here that it's hard to rule anything out. Now, this is still a longshot, but a shot none the less.

A look at radar shows returns over Bexar County right now, but I don't know if that's reaching the ground or if it's just evaporating.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kewx/latest.gif

There are returns over southern Bexar County but I don't know if it's reaching the ground. However, it might be snowing in San Antonio as we speak

[MannyIsGod]

REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN DEWITT COUNTY HAS PROMPTED A SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA, KARENS,DEWITT AND LAVACA
COUNTIES. BRIGHT BANDING ON RADAR IS INCREASING AND STRETCHES FROM
WEBB COUNTY TO LAVACA COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NO OTHER
CHANGES FROM EARLIER MORNING UPDATE.

ADJUSTING SOME MAX TEMPS UP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREDICTED. UPPER LOW STILL
DIGGING SOUTH. BEST LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN AN ATMOSPHERIC SNOW PROFILE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BEING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND AIR BELOW THE
CLOUDS SO DRY, CAN EXPECTED A FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ALL CLOUD LAYERS
BEGIN TO LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

So close, yet so godamn far.

[MannyIsGod]

that band is migrating every so slightly north, it's such a damn tease because I don't think there's anyway in hell it makes it to SA.

[T Park]

Thanks Albert Flores.

[MannyIsGod]

Thanks Albert Flores.

No problem Mr. Stay Puff.

Merry Christmas.

[MannyIsGod]

Ok, I'm going to let this die for now...

Those of you on the South East Sides of town will probably get at least flurries. East of 35 will all probably see some flakes,but the highway seems to be the dividing line.

After another few hours it's gone.

I'm cold, I'm going to go eat Tamales

Fuck the snow gods.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImages/RadarLoop/sat+2Z2Z.gif

So damn close!

[Solid D]

You are sooo not living up to your screen name.....(thankfully so).

Merry Christmas Manny and thanks for the updates.

[MannyIsGod]

Tpark....

It's a good thing you were born with the silver carnival coupon up your ass because man, you are wrong at well....EVERYTHING.

[LuvBones]

Damn. So did I lose?

[LuvBones]

I really did lose. :bang

[Jimcs50]

looks like flurries won...no winners.

[Kori Ellis]

Does it count as flurries or measurable snow? Snow was sitting on my deck for a while.

[Hook Dem]

looks like flurries won...no winners.
How do you know Jim? You were in College Station. We can't take your word for it!

[LuvBones]

They're not even talking about snowfall in SA on the weather channel... just Houston, Corpus, and Brownsville.

[ZStomp]

Does it count as flurries or measurable snow? Snow was sitting on my deck for a while.


It can't count!

I'll lose all my Vbookie money!!

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Measurable.

I needs me 200 vBucks.

[ZStomp]

I already lost my money???


Damn!

[Kori Ellis]

According to yesterday's official weather almanac, there was zero snowfall.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=ICAO:KSAT&almanac=1

[MannyIsGod]

Unless anyone in SA got some actuall mesaurable snow, all we got were flurries. Amazing how much they got just 40 miles form here though.