duncan228
10-23-2007, 05:11 AM
http://www.nba.com/powerrankings/
Start With the Champs and Go From There
By John Schuhmann
October 22, 2007 -- Here we are, just eight days away from the tip-off of the 2007-08 season. It's a perfect time to put together the first Power Rankings of the new basketball year, a projection of sorts of how things could go down over the next six months.
We're adding a statistical aspect to the rankings this year. No, we're not basing our rankings on stats. We're just providing you with offensive and defensive ratings for each team (in bold in the Breakdown section), based on points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and their league rank. For more on the math, check out Kevin Pelton's excellent summary on SuperSonics.com. The numbers below are from last season.
The rankings themselves (at least these preseason rankings - the criteria will obviously change once the season gets underway) are based on last year's results, player movement, injuries, player development and more. And they're just one man's opinion, which you are free to disagree with.
Another new feature this year will be a further explanation of a particular team's ranking, which the author will provide in The Court Reporters blog. Here's this week's Power Rankings Protraction, with a further explanation of the theory behind the rankings and a deeper look at the Southeast Division.
If you've got beef with the rankings, feel free to comment in the blog, or drop us a line. And note that the rankings will be published every Monday this season.
High jumps of the summer: Boston (+22), Memphis (+11), Milwaukee (+10)
Free falls of the summer: L.A. Clippers (-13), L.A. Lakers (-8), Indiana (-6)
The top Five:
TEAM (LAST YR) 2006-07 BREAKDOWN
1 San Antonio (2) 58-24 Off: 113.0 (2), Def: 104.7 (5) -- If the champs stay healthy, then they're the favorites to repeat no matter what their regular season record is. Of course, it is an even year.
2 Dallas (1) 67-15 Off: 111.1 (4), Def: 101.5 (2) -- They probably won't roll through the regular season like they did last season, but even if they do, they'll be a big unknown come the playoffs.
3 Phoenix (3) 61-21 Off: 116.1 (1), Def: 107.7 (13) -- There's probably not a more motivated team in the Association right now, and with Amare expanding his game, many think this is their year.
4 Houston (5) 52-30 Off: 110.6 (6), Def: 105.3 (6) -- Luis Scola is the biggest addition to any team that won 50 or more last season. Health is always an issue of course, as is playoff pressure.
5 Detroit (4) 53-29 Off: 108.3 (14), Def: 101.6 (3) -- Rodney Stuckey may be the next biggest addition to a 50-plusser, and if you're to believe Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons never lost the East crown.
The Contenders:
TEAM (LAST YR) 2006-07 BREAKDOWN
6 Utah (8) 51-31 Off: 111.3 (3), Def: 109.1 (19) -- With Deron Williams only 23 years old, the Jazz should continue to grow, as long as the Andrei Kirilenko situation doesn't become a distraction.
7 Boston (29) 24-58 Off: 104.3 (28), Def: 108.9 (18) -- The preseason results have been positive and with seven of their first 11 at home, the new Big Three will have a chance to keep it that way come November.
8 Chicago (9) 49-33 Off: 106.7 (20), Def: 101.1 (1) -- The Bulls are still a young team and they're coming off their first playoff series victory since the Jordan era. A trip to the Finals is within reach.
9 Toronto (10) 47-35 Off: 109.4 (8), Def: 107.5 (12) -- Chris Bosh's health is the No. 1 concern, but it will be Andrea Bargnani's development that determines how the Raptors do this season.
10 Denver (6) 45-37 Off: 109.3 (9), Def: 107.0 (9) -- We're not sure Chucky Atkins is the answer at point guard, but with K-Mart back and Melo only getting better, the Nuggets should be right there with Utah in the Northwest.
11 Cleveland (7) 50-32 Off: 106.8 (19), Def: 103.0 (4) -- LeBron is LeBron of course, but it was the Cavs' defense that got them to the Finals. With two key components of that defense still not in uniform, it's hard not downgrade Cleveland.
12 New Jersey (12) 41-41 Off: 108.0 (15), Def: 107.8 (14) -- Nenad Krstic is back and the Nets' frontline is deeper than it has been in a while, but Jason Kidd's back issues are not a good sign.
13 Miami (11) 44-38 Off: 106.9 (18), Def: 106.3 (8) -- Speaking of injuries, the Heat probably top the MASH unit rankings, but if they can have the two important guys healthy when it counts, they're as dangerous as anybody in the East.
14 Washington (18) 41-41 Off: 111.1 (5), Def: 112.5 (28) -- Washington's Big Three is healthy and Gilbert will tell you that when they were healthy last year, they were at the top of the East. But in order to get back there, they need to start playing some defense.
15 Orlando (15) 40-42 Off: 106.3 (22), Def: 105.9 (7) -- With the addition of Rashard Lewis and with Dwight still developing, the Magic will be better. But are they Eastern Conference contenders?
16 New Orleans (17) 39-43 Off: 106.1 (23), Def: 108.4 (16) -- Despite all their injuries, the Hornets almost made it into the playoffs last season. We'll know if they're good once we know if they're healthy.
17 Golden State (13) 42-40 Off: 109.1 (10), Def: 108.9 (17) -- The perfect storm put them in the Conference Semifinals this past May. We're not sure things will be so perfect this year, especially with Jason Richardson now in Charlotte.
18 Milwaukee (28) 28-54 Off: 108.3 (13), Def: 113.6 (29) -- What's the injury-mention count at so far? Add one as we list the Bucks, who lost a total of 184 games from their starters last season. If healthy, yadda ... yadda ... yadda.
19 Memphis (30) 22-60 Off: 108.7 (11), Def: 114.3 (30) -- Here's our bold prediction of the year: The Grizzlies will win 40 games this season.
20 Sacramento (23) 33-49 Off: 107.9 (16), Def: 109.6 (21) -- The potential is there for the Kings to be a good team. It may all depend on the attitudes of Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.
21 Philadelphia (19) 35-47 Off: 105.2 (26), Def: 108.3 (15) -- We like the direction the team is heading, and they should be in the playoff picture, but this probably isn't the year they make it back to the postseason.
22 L.A. Lakers (14) 42-40 Off: 110.0 (7), Def: 110.5 (24) -- The Kobe issue has the franchise on edge and the team possibly looking at a big step backward in the win column.
23 Atlanta (27) 30-52 Off: 104.3 (29), Def: 109.8 (23) -- With the two lottery picks and a still-developing core, things are looking up in Atlanta. Al Horford could be a serious challenger to Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.
24 New York (21) 33-49 Off: 107.0 (17), Def: 110.7 (25) -- Until they show us they can play defense, we're going to continue to have our doubts about the Knicks. They may be better than last season, but so is the rest of the conference.
25 Charlotte (22) 33-49 Off: 104.9 (27), Def: 109.2 (20) -- The Bobcats have improved every year in the league and they've got the assets to make another jump, but we've to to see it to believe it this time around.
26 Indiana (20) 35-47 Off: 104.2 (30), Def: 107.3 (11) -- After a rumor-filled summer, Jermaine O'Neal is still a Pacer, but Jim O'Brien may have to turn things around quickly to avoid rebuilding in Indiana.
27 Portland (24) 32-50 Off: 105.9 (24), Def: 111.8 (26) -- Even after Greg Oden's surgery, this author wrote that the Blazers would win at least 33 games this year (one more than last season) on the white board here at NBA.com HQ (where predictions are made regularly). But with preseason injuries to Roy and Aldridge, we're looking for the eraser.
28 Minnesota (26) 32-50 Off: 105.3 (25), Def: 109.7 (22) -- The T-Wolves aren't that young. They've vets Juwan Howard, Ricky Davis and Theo Ratliff in the rotation. And Al Jefferson does have three years of NBA experience under his belt.
29 L.A. Clippers (16) 40-42 Off: 106.7 (21), Def: 107.1 (10) -- With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston out long term, the '07-08 outlook is bleak in Clipperland. The silver lining is a chance for Al Thornton to develop quickly.
30 Seattle (25) 31-51 Off: 108.5 (12), Def: 112.0 (27) -- Like the Blazers and T-Wolves, the Sonics are on the five-year plan. They will certainly go through their growing pains, but Durant and Green could be one of the best tandems in the league down the road.
Start With the Champs and Go From There
By John Schuhmann
October 22, 2007 -- Here we are, just eight days away from the tip-off of the 2007-08 season. It's a perfect time to put together the first Power Rankings of the new basketball year, a projection of sorts of how things could go down over the next six months.
We're adding a statistical aspect to the rankings this year. No, we're not basing our rankings on stats. We're just providing you with offensive and defensive ratings for each team (in bold in the Breakdown section), based on points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and their league rank. For more on the math, check out Kevin Pelton's excellent summary on SuperSonics.com. The numbers below are from last season.
The rankings themselves (at least these preseason rankings - the criteria will obviously change once the season gets underway) are based on last year's results, player movement, injuries, player development and more. And they're just one man's opinion, which you are free to disagree with.
Another new feature this year will be a further explanation of a particular team's ranking, which the author will provide in The Court Reporters blog. Here's this week's Power Rankings Protraction, with a further explanation of the theory behind the rankings and a deeper look at the Southeast Division.
If you've got beef with the rankings, feel free to comment in the blog, or drop us a line. And note that the rankings will be published every Monday this season.
High jumps of the summer: Boston (+22), Memphis (+11), Milwaukee (+10)
Free falls of the summer: L.A. Clippers (-13), L.A. Lakers (-8), Indiana (-6)
The top Five:
TEAM (LAST YR) 2006-07 BREAKDOWN
1 San Antonio (2) 58-24 Off: 113.0 (2), Def: 104.7 (5) -- If the champs stay healthy, then they're the favorites to repeat no matter what their regular season record is. Of course, it is an even year.
2 Dallas (1) 67-15 Off: 111.1 (4), Def: 101.5 (2) -- They probably won't roll through the regular season like they did last season, but even if they do, they'll be a big unknown come the playoffs.
3 Phoenix (3) 61-21 Off: 116.1 (1), Def: 107.7 (13) -- There's probably not a more motivated team in the Association right now, and with Amare expanding his game, many think this is their year.
4 Houston (5) 52-30 Off: 110.6 (6), Def: 105.3 (6) -- Luis Scola is the biggest addition to any team that won 50 or more last season. Health is always an issue of course, as is playoff pressure.
5 Detroit (4) 53-29 Off: 108.3 (14), Def: 101.6 (3) -- Rodney Stuckey may be the next biggest addition to a 50-plusser, and if you're to believe Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons never lost the East crown.
The Contenders:
TEAM (LAST YR) 2006-07 BREAKDOWN
6 Utah (8) 51-31 Off: 111.3 (3), Def: 109.1 (19) -- With Deron Williams only 23 years old, the Jazz should continue to grow, as long as the Andrei Kirilenko situation doesn't become a distraction.
7 Boston (29) 24-58 Off: 104.3 (28), Def: 108.9 (18) -- The preseason results have been positive and with seven of their first 11 at home, the new Big Three will have a chance to keep it that way come November.
8 Chicago (9) 49-33 Off: 106.7 (20), Def: 101.1 (1) -- The Bulls are still a young team and they're coming off their first playoff series victory since the Jordan era. A trip to the Finals is within reach.
9 Toronto (10) 47-35 Off: 109.4 (8), Def: 107.5 (12) -- Chris Bosh's health is the No. 1 concern, but it will be Andrea Bargnani's development that determines how the Raptors do this season.
10 Denver (6) 45-37 Off: 109.3 (9), Def: 107.0 (9) -- We're not sure Chucky Atkins is the answer at point guard, but with K-Mart back and Melo only getting better, the Nuggets should be right there with Utah in the Northwest.
11 Cleveland (7) 50-32 Off: 106.8 (19), Def: 103.0 (4) -- LeBron is LeBron of course, but it was the Cavs' defense that got them to the Finals. With two key components of that defense still not in uniform, it's hard not downgrade Cleveland.
12 New Jersey (12) 41-41 Off: 108.0 (15), Def: 107.8 (14) -- Nenad Krstic is back and the Nets' frontline is deeper than it has been in a while, but Jason Kidd's back issues are not a good sign.
13 Miami (11) 44-38 Off: 106.9 (18), Def: 106.3 (8) -- Speaking of injuries, the Heat probably top the MASH unit rankings, but if they can have the two important guys healthy when it counts, they're as dangerous as anybody in the East.
14 Washington (18) 41-41 Off: 111.1 (5), Def: 112.5 (28) -- Washington's Big Three is healthy and Gilbert will tell you that when they were healthy last year, they were at the top of the East. But in order to get back there, they need to start playing some defense.
15 Orlando (15) 40-42 Off: 106.3 (22), Def: 105.9 (7) -- With the addition of Rashard Lewis and with Dwight still developing, the Magic will be better. But are they Eastern Conference contenders?
16 New Orleans (17) 39-43 Off: 106.1 (23), Def: 108.4 (16) -- Despite all their injuries, the Hornets almost made it into the playoffs last season. We'll know if they're good once we know if they're healthy.
17 Golden State (13) 42-40 Off: 109.1 (10), Def: 108.9 (17) -- The perfect storm put them in the Conference Semifinals this past May. We're not sure things will be so perfect this year, especially with Jason Richardson now in Charlotte.
18 Milwaukee (28) 28-54 Off: 108.3 (13), Def: 113.6 (29) -- What's the injury-mention count at so far? Add one as we list the Bucks, who lost a total of 184 games from their starters last season. If healthy, yadda ... yadda ... yadda.
19 Memphis (30) 22-60 Off: 108.7 (11), Def: 114.3 (30) -- Here's our bold prediction of the year: The Grizzlies will win 40 games this season.
20 Sacramento (23) 33-49 Off: 107.9 (16), Def: 109.6 (21) -- The potential is there for the Kings to be a good team. It may all depend on the attitudes of Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.
21 Philadelphia (19) 35-47 Off: 105.2 (26), Def: 108.3 (15) -- We like the direction the team is heading, and they should be in the playoff picture, but this probably isn't the year they make it back to the postseason.
22 L.A. Lakers (14) 42-40 Off: 110.0 (7), Def: 110.5 (24) -- The Kobe issue has the franchise on edge and the team possibly looking at a big step backward in the win column.
23 Atlanta (27) 30-52 Off: 104.3 (29), Def: 109.8 (23) -- With the two lottery picks and a still-developing core, things are looking up in Atlanta. Al Horford could be a serious challenger to Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.
24 New York (21) 33-49 Off: 107.0 (17), Def: 110.7 (25) -- Until they show us they can play defense, we're going to continue to have our doubts about the Knicks. They may be better than last season, but so is the rest of the conference.
25 Charlotte (22) 33-49 Off: 104.9 (27), Def: 109.2 (20) -- The Bobcats have improved every year in the league and they've got the assets to make another jump, but we've to to see it to believe it this time around.
26 Indiana (20) 35-47 Off: 104.2 (30), Def: 107.3 (11) -- After a rumor-filled summer, Jermaine O'Neal is still a Pacer, but Jim O'Brien may have to turn things around quickly to avoid rebuilding in Indiana.
27 Portland (24) 32-50 Off: 105.9 (24), Def: 111.8 (26) -- Even after Greg Oden's surgery, this author wrote that the Blazers would win at least 33 games this year (one more than last season) on the white board here at NBA.com HQ (where predictions are made regularly). But with preseason injuries to Roy and Aldridge, we're looking for the eraser.
28 Minnesota (26) 32-50 Off: 105.3 (25), Def: 109.7 (22) -- The T-Wolves aren't that young. They've vets Juwan Howard, Ricky Davis and Theo Ratliff in the rotation. And Al Jefferson does have three years of NBA experience under his belt.
29 L.A. Clippers (16) 40-42 Off: 106.7 (21), Def: 107.1 (10) -- With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston out long term, the '07-08 outlook is bleak in Clipperland. The silver lining is a chance for Al Thornton to develop quickly.
30 Seattle (25) 31-51 Off: 108.5 (12), Def: 112.0 (27) -- Like the Blazers and T-Wolves, the Sonics are on the five-year plan. They will certainly go through their growing pains, but Durant and Green could be one of the best tandems in the league down the road.