Anyone with Insider, an article about the contenders at midseason

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Please Post

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&id=1949820

[RobinsontoDuncan]

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[Rummpd]

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&id=1949820

Could not access site - why cannot lame ESPN put this out for free?

Maddoc

[smeagol]

[url]Could not access site - why cannot lame ESPN put this out for free?
Because they are lame!

[PimpScourge]

A Pistons-Suns Finals?
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider

There's one thing we can say for sure about preseason predictions. They are about as reliable as the seven-day forecast over the Bermuda Triangle.

After all the offseason moving and shaking, after the preseason games had been won and lost – you look at teams, on both paper and in truncated versions on the court and ... well ... you guess.

Sometimes the guesses make you look like a genius. Sometimes ... eh, not so much.

Now that we are nearly a third of the way through the season, here are Insider's "educated" NBA predictions. Out with the Tarot cards. In with the game film.

The good

Detroit Pistons: The defending champs are 12-11. They've suffered bad losses to the Hawks, Bobcats, Grizzlies and Bucks. They were blown away, on their home floor, by the Pacers. They've been embroiled in scandal and lethargy. Their lock-down defense – the same one that won them the title last year – has on recently reared its nasty head. Their lock-out offense, however, has been on permanent display.

So how can the Pistons still be atop of our list of teams with a chance to win it all? I'll let a rival Eastern Conference GM put it into perspective.

"There are all sorts of issues going on," the GM told Insider. "But when you look at their team, their coach and their front office, I just find it hard to believe that anyone can beat them in a seven-game series. The defense will get better. The veterans will start playing with more fire. It's inevitable. The same thing has happened in the past with the Lakers and Spurs. Once they get closer, they'll start tasting it again, and when they do, I don't see a team out there who can beat them."

That turnaround may already have started. After a miserable November, in which the Pistons allowed nearly 96 ppg, their defense has been stellar. In December, Detroit is giving up an average of 79 ppg. The offense still needs a lot of work. Only the Hornets, Nets and Hawks are putting up fewer points per game right now.

While you can make the argument that the Pacers would have a real shot at beating the Pistons if Ron Artest returns, look around the rest of the East. Is there a better team over the long haul? Once they get to the Finals – all bets are off, however. This is a team built to keep up with the Spurs, not a team like the Suns.

They're still Insider's favorites to win it all this year – but the mountain looks much steeper than it did this fall.
Insider preseason prediction: 1st in East, NBA Champs
Insider revised prediction: 2nd in East, NBA Champs

San Antonio Spurs: Quiet and lethal. That's the only way to describe the 20-5 Spurs this year. They are, once again, the best defensive team in the league. Offensively, they are nearly 5 ppg better than last year. Only the Suns have a bigger point differential. They are also the second-best rebounding team. They have an MVP big man in Tim Duncan. Their backcourt of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili is one of the most exciting in the league.

"I think they're the best team in the NBA, period," one rival GM said. "They can beat you outside or inside on offense, and they will always defend you. If Brent Barry ever gets on track, I just don't see how anyone could stop them."

Maybe. The Spurs have been great against the traditional powerhouses. But against quicker, smaller teams that can shoot the ball, they've had their share of problems. Seattle has beaten them badly twice. Teams like the Grizzlies and Raptors – teams without traditional low post games – also have given them fits. If they have to face a team like the Suns or Sonics in the Finals, it could spell disaster.
Insider preseason prediction: 1st in West, Western Conference Champs
Insider revised prediction: 1st in West

Phoenix Suns: The Suns are not a fluke. Few 21-3 teams are. The Suns are beating teams by an average margin of 12 ppg. No one has come close to figuring out how to stop their mile-a-minute offense. Defensively, they've been more committed than you'd expect from a team like this.

They have five players capable of averaging 30 points a night. On some teams, that could be a liability. But on this one, everyone shares the ball, apparently content knowing their shots will come soon enough.

"They are relentless," one rival GM told Insider. "And they are unique. They pose so many match-up problems; it's tough to figure out what to do with them. I think [GM Bryan] Colangelo was brilliant. He's created a team that no other team in the league can really defend. Teams were built to defend more traditional, low-post attacks. They've taken everyone by surprise and caught us with our pants down a little."

The Suns, however, aren't perfect. Statistically, they are the worst-rebounding team in the league – something that few good teams ever have claimed. Their schedule hasn't been rigourous to date, and their bench is very thin. If Steve Nash or Amare Stoudemire were to go down for an extended time, all bets would be off.

Still, can a slow-down, defensive-oriented team like the Spurs really survive a seven game series with this bunch? For the Spurs to be effective, they need to hold their opponents under 90 ppg. That's nearly 19 points below the Suns' average. That's an almost impossible task for a team in a seven-game series.
Insider preseason prediction: 8th in West
Insider revised prediction: 2nd in West, Western Conference Champs

Miami Heat: Shaquille O'Neal has awoken from his early season slumber and has been running roughshod through the Eastern Conference of late. The result? The Heat are 8-1 in December and now sport the best record in the East at 19-7. Shaq is averaging 24 ppg and 10 rpg over the last five games. Dwyane Wade has been awesome all season, averaging 23 ppg and 7 apg. And relatively unknown Damon Jones leads the league in 3-pointers made.

"The team doesn't have a lot of depth," a rival GM told Insider. "But if you have Shaq in the paint and Wade running around the perimeter, that's tough to stop regardless of the three other guys on the floor. I still question if they're deep enough to beat an elite team in a seven-game series, but, frankly, they're better than I thought they'd be."

With that said, the Heat are actively trying to fix the depth issue. The Raptors could turn out to be their savior. League sources claim the Raptors are discussing a buyout with Alonzo Mourning. If he takes it, he likely will sign with the Heat for the league minimum.

The Heat are also talking to the Raptors about a deal that could send both Jalen Rose and Donyell Marshall to Miami. If that happens?

"If that happens, we're all in trouble," the same GM told Insider. "They'll have the firepower to beat anyone – anyone – in the playoffs."
Insider preseason prediction: 3rd in East
Insider revised prediction: 1st in East

Sacramento Kings: The media needs to stop using the "window" metaphor with the Kings. Every year the preseason analysis is the same – the window has closed on the Kings. Every year the on the court response is the same – maybe it'll close next year.

The Kings are 15-3 after a pitiful 1-4 start. They are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Once again they average the most assists and the fewest turnovers. Those three stats together invariably add up to a winning combination.

But will they ever get over the playoff hump in the West? It may depend on who they play this year. They are well equipped to play and beat a smaller team like the Suns or Sonics. However, teams like the Spurs and Timberwolves continue to give them fits.
Insider preseason prediction: 3rd in West
Insider revised prediction: 3rd in West

Minnesota Timberwolves: Speaking of teams that might already have peaked, it's tough to believe the Wolves will ever be able to repeat what they did in 2004. Kevin Garnett is still amazing, but the supporting cast doesn't quite seem to have the sizzle it did last year.

Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell's numbers are way down from last season, and they show no signs of perking up unless the Wolves throw some serious cash their way. The Wolves have been very active on the trade market trying to fix that problem. They thought they were a prime candidate to acquire Jason Kidd before the Vince Carter trade. Now, the best they may be able to do is swapping a guy like Wally Szczerbiak for Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

The one bright spot besides Garnett has been Eddie Griffin. Many scouts believed he was the best talent in the draft class of 2001. His off-court problems have been well documented, but they seem to be in remission at the moment. If he stays focused, he and Garnett may be able to will the Wolves deep into the playoffs on their own.
Insider preseason prediction: 2nd in West
Insider revised prediction: 4th in West

Indiana Pacers: For a few fleeting seconds on Nov. 19, it looked like the Pacers were going to be the team to beat this season. They were in Detroit, wiping the floor with the defending world champs when Mount Artest erupted and sent Indiana's season into disarray.

When the Pacers get Jermaine O'Neal and Stephen Jackson back in late January, they will rise again and become one of the powers in the East. But without Artest, will they really have the juice to make it all the way to the Finals? Maybe. Their supporting cast has gotten valuable minutes in the absence of the starters and might be ready to step up and play a bigger role – especially guard Fred Jones. But as good as Jones is, he doesn't provide the same intensity Artest did.

Then again, the arbitrator could rule this week that Artest's punishment was too severe. If the suspension is reduced and the league loses its appeal in federal court, the Pistons, Heat and everyone else in the league could be in for a world of hurt as the hungry, angry Pacers try to exact revenge on everyone that stands in their way.
Insider preseason prediction: 2nd in East
Insider revised prediction: 3rd in East

Orlando Magic: Lost in the Suns and Sonics love-fest is this year's Eastern Conference Cinderella story – the Magic. They, too, are playing a run-and-gun style that is turning heads and wearing down opponents. In fact, it's the Magic, not the Suns, who lead the league in fast-break points per game.

Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley are having career years. Grant Hill looks like his old self again. And rookie Dwight Howard has superstar written all over him. His 10.3 rpg is amazing for a rookie. Once Francis and Mobley figure out that Howard can get much higher-percentage shots than they can, they may actually pass him the ball. His 6.9 field goal attempts per game rank just fifth on the team, despite the fact he's shooting 53 percent from the field.
Insider preseason prediction: 4th in East
Insider revised prediction: 4th in East

The Bad
# The Hornets seem to have called it quits already.
# Are the Hawks ready to trade 'Toine and start, uh, rebuilding?
# Somehow the Warriors are worse than expected.

The Upside
# Dallas got tougher but now needs a point guard.
# Seattle has been on fire, but can the torch stay lit?
# The light bulb seems to have gone on in Washington.

[genghisrex]

Phoenix Suns: ... They have five players capable of averaging 30 points a night.
The Suns are good, but 5 players capable of averaging 30 ppg? :lol

Chad Ford, you've outdone yourself again.

[GrandeDavid]

Kind of a suspect analysis in many respects. And this guy interestingly focuses on the Spurs' impossibility of holding the Suns 19 points below their average in a seven game series. I think its the other way around, pal. I think it'd be the less experienced Suns who would have trouble scoring their average against the Spurs in a set of meaningful games. After years of dealing with Shaq and Kobe and more, I just don't see Tim Duncan and his supporting cast folding tent against the Phoenix freaking Suns.

And I beg to differ that the Sonics blew the Spurs out twice. They did so once, but the other one the Spurs closed the gap then pissed it away and lost by six.

Yes, this was an early season modified prediction, but this guy tends to choose to forget that defense traditionally spells big trouble for high scoring teams come playoff times. Just look at Steve Nash's Mavericks, winning 60 or 58 then folding up in the playoffs.

In summary, I'm not concerned about the regular season and I don't think Seattle or Phoenix could win more than a couple against the Spurs in the playoffs.

[King]

The Suns are good, but 5 players capable of averaging 30 ppg? :lol

Chad Ford, you've outdone yourself again.

I don't know if he means all at the same time. Probably any one of those players could be a guy that averages 30 ppg. Not saying he's right, but it's more realistic that way.

[FromWayDowntown]

I wrote to Ford yesterday to explain that we've already seen what happens in the playoffs when the Spurs encounter an offense-heavy team in the playoffs, and particualrly in the late rounds. In 2003, the Spurs held Dallas to around 96 ppg, almost 7 ppg under their regular season average, for a 6 game series. Meanwhile, the Spurs exceeded their 95 ppg season average by scoring more than 101 ppg.

Like I told Ford, and as Don Nelson said in 2003, I think the Spurs are capable of beating teams either way: the Spurs will beat you playing their style and they'll beat you playing your style.

I do think Phoenix is looking pretty stout at this point. They've got just enough in the paint to support their abundance of skill and athleticism on the perimeter. But the Spurs dealt with that in years gone by and struggled with Phoenix largely because they couldn't handle Marbury. Tony Parker has never really "struggled" with Steve Nash.

I may be foolish for believing this, but I think the Spurs actually matchup pretty well with the Suns. I like the matchups (particularly on the Spurs defensive end) on the perimeter -- Parker and Nash tends to be a push, and the Spurs defensive trio of Bowen, Brown, and Ginobili can hang with the Suns trio of Marion, Johnson, and Richardson. Stoudemire is a stud, but he's not a better player than Duncan. And Rasho/Malik/Horry need only provide some assistance with Amare while matching the output of guys like Voskhul and Hunter.

Strangely, Ford hasn't responded to me. . . .

[genghisrex]

I don't know if he means all at the same time. Probably any one of those players could be a guy that averages 30 ppg. Not saying he's right, but it's more realistic that way.
I know exactly what he meant (what you wrote), but I don't think there's a single player on the Suns capable of averaging 30 ppg for a season. Argue that if you like, but there sure as hell aren't five of them who could pull it off on that squad.

[Spurminator]

Maybe Amare, if he was on a team with few other options and they force fed him the ball every time.

He'd also have to be in the East.

[Rummpd]

Seattle did not beat the Spurs badly the 2nd time - Spurs fought way back into game solidly.

Ford's an idiot.

MadDoc

[RobinsontoDuncan]

first of all thank you very much Pimp Scourge for posting this article for me, i am much obliged, now then:


[The Pistons] is a team built to keep up with the Spurs, not a team like the Suns.

They're still Insider's favorites to win it all this year – but the mountain looks much steeper than it did this fall.

Ok, so the Pistons, who have lost to the Spurs and are "rebuilding" throught the season without having to add significant players are for some reason more capable of hanging with the run and gun Suns then a team with a 20-5 record that is a notroriously slow starter? Hmmm.... Perhaps Chad forgot that in 2003 we were 1-3 against the suns, a team that we had played mostly in the beggining of the season and in pointless games at the end of it, but found a way to make them look bad anyway. The fact remains that only a team with shaq on it has ever stopped Tim Duncan in the Playoffs.



Maybe. The Spurs have been great against the traditional powerhouses. But against quicker, smaller teams that can shoot the ball, they've had their share of problems. Seattle has beaten them badly twice. Teams like the Grizzlies and Raptors – teams without traditional low post games – also have given them fits.

As Sacramento is doubtlessly a team that can run the floor and shoot the ball.... I wonder about the proceeding statement especially after considering this one:


[The Kings] are well equipped to play and beat a smaller team like the Suns or Sonics.

Does anyone doubt our ability to beat the Kings? I highly doubt that, and Chad, your right, the Kings would be able to dispatch the Suns or Sonics quite easily, proving that we could also.... Actually he seems to forget that if, really it is a question of when, Brent Barry finds his game, the Spurs will have added a player capable of dropping twenty a night bringing the grand total to 5, and coincidentally we have a large amount of depth after that but think about this: Tim Duncan, Manu, TP, Devin Brown, and Brent Barry are all scorers. Beno Udrih has been amazing, Bruce Bowen has displayed a game no one ever knew existed, and Malik Rose can be a huge contributor.

The Spurs in a seven game series could slow the suns down alot becuase we can throw almost three teams of five out there against just one for the Suns.

The suns lack of depth will prevent them from winning a championship unless they start resting their players and coast to the playoffs which they will then have to have their starters play every single minute of.