Findog
10-25-2007, 09:00 AM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/specials/preview/2007/enemy.lines/rockets.html
An opposing team's scout sizes up the Rockets
There are a lot of questions here, but this can be a scary-good team if some of the questions are answered positively. Is Steve Francis going to be a cancer or is he going to accept his role? The same goes for Bonzi Wells. Mike James is another big question mark after having a horrendous year for Minnesota, which surprised me. And then how will they react to new coach Rick Adelman? In this case I'm referring primarily to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady because for the others it's not so much an issue ...
The key here is going to be Yao because I question if he can play the high post in the offense Adelman used to run at Sacramento. I'm sure Adelman will make an adjustment and play a 2-3 set rather than a 1-3-1 set. He used to use Chris Webber or Brad Miller flashing to the high post to turn and face and shoot. I think Yao will be able to come to the high post and hit a guy cutting or make the shot because he has a very good foul-line jumper. But why take a 7-6 guy away from the basket as a rebounder? He is capable of playing out high, but by doing so, he loses some of his value. I would be surprised if he lives out there. I think you'll see him go to the high post once in a while to take some pressure off -- they can take the double team away by sending him high, which opens up the backcourt cuts and baseline drives for their other guys ...
Because he played for Jeff Van Gundy the last four years, Yao is going to be one hell of player with a good work ethic. He now understands all about playing both ends. He's going to be fundamentally sound in a league that is headed in the other direction. Because he has that solid foundation, he'll be more capable of flourishing in Adelman's system. But he has to show consistency. He doesn't seem to catch a lot of breaks with injuries -- he'll just be getting in shape and then something bad happens. When he first came in, I felt he was going be one of the big forces in the history of the NBA, but he just hasn't been a dominant factor. This is Yao's sixth year and he has to start showing the consistent dominance ...
It's like there are two styles of young centers now, with Yao at one end of the spectrum and Amaré Stoudemire as the explosive full-court athlete at the other end. I think you can win equally with either style. There are more teams going small at center, but that's only because there are not many Yao Mings. If you're asking me if I would rather have Yao or Stoudemire, the first thing I'll want to know is who are my surrounding players? If I don't have a bunch of shooters for Yao to pass to out of the double team, then of course I'd rather have Amaré. And let's be honest, Amaré is so successful because he has the best point guard in the league pushing the tempo that suits Amaré's game perfectly. But if I can surround Yao with shooters, I'll take Yao because he's going to score one-on-one against anybody in the league. ...
The other issue for Yao is to stay out of foul trouble defensively. Van Gundy would have Yao play in a variety of ways, both fronting and playing behind. I'm a big Van Gundy fan, but I think you've got to teach him to play behind and make him a one-man zone. Jeff doesn't make those exceptions; he wants everybody playing man. But you've got to make exceptions. You can't have Yao out there guarding a pick-and-roll with the dribbler coming out. I think Adelman is more likely to use him as a one-man zone playing behind his man and protecting the rim, as opposed to wandering out of his area of comfort to blitz pick-and-rolls. He'll probably try to show at times, but I'll be surprised if you see him get both feet much above the foul line ...
It's going to be interesting to see if their improvements on offense can more than offset the erosion of their defense. In the absence of Van Gundy, they're not going to work at defense as much and they definitely won't be as good at that end of the floor. Offensively, they'll score more, there will be more open shots and they'll take them quicker. They'll try to spread teams out. Jeff was going to make sure Tracy and Yao got most of the shots. Adelman is going to space them out and isolate them, but he'll do it in the flow of their wide-open offense, as opposed to the iso post-up curls or the pick-and-roll clear-outs that Van Gundy used to run. It will be more isos through movement in the offense, trying to get the defense moving so when they iso Yao or Tracy, it will be harder for the defense to double-team or trap. That will be a real asset for Houston. I think their team is built to play that way, but again they've got to keep Yao in the low post more than Adelman has done with his previous big men. I see him moving from one block to the dotted line to the other block ...
I love McGrady as a player and I know his former coaches love him as a guy. What bothers me is when I read about him talking about how he's envisioning his retirement and planning his future after basketball. I want to hear the guy focused on winning a championship. It goes back to the same question that always comes up with him: Does he have the passion to win, will he get down and dirty enough to get it done? You look at what Kobe Bryant is doing, he's creating a lot of havoc and dissension, but it's because he'll do practically anything to be in position to win a championship. Believe it or not, I'd like to see more of that attitude from McGrady. He's definitely a great player. He's just missing that killer instinct ...
The other thing is that he's good enough to finish a bad play. He's like Vince Carter in that he can force a shot and make it work. The problem for Houston will be if Francis or Wells are taking bad shots ...
Another question is whether they have enough basketballs. With Francis, Bonzi and Tracy, that might be an issue. I'm thinking Francis is going to have to be a shooting guard. It's strange that he's entering his ninth year and we're still not sure who or what he is. His experiences with coaches the last few years have not been promising, to say the least. Orlando dumped him, Larry Brown couldn't wait to get rid of him and Isiah Thomas bought him out. Hopefully now he's looking at this as his last chance and he'll do everything he can to fit into what the team needs, in which case he can be a huge asset and salvage his career. But my suspicion is he'll see this as a homecoming and that he can be the man again just like he was last time in Houston ...
I know Wells loves Adelman, and the last time with him in Sacramento he had a good experience. But I also know he was a cancer at Memphis and things didn't work for him last year with Van Gundy either. He seems fine when things are going well, but when it's going south he's ready to jump ship. He's talented and can score in a lot of different ways, as a perimeter player or with his back to the basket. ...
I wonder if the reason they're going with guys like Francis and Bonzi is because of a stats analysis by their new GM, Daryl Morey, who is a Moneyball kind of guy. Is he seeing the potential of tremendous value in these guys who don't cost a lot of money? But I don't know if an old-school basketball guy would have gone in this direction because of the potential chemistry conflicts. That's why I say it's going to be interesting ...
At point guard I can see them starting Rafer Alston, but he could go wacky with all of the freedom in that offense. If they're getting poor results because of his decision-making, you could see James coming in and being what the doctor ordered. Rookie point guard Aaron Brooks was a good choice and I think he's going to surprise some people ...
Luis Scola is a skilled guy who could thrive in this system, though I wonder if he could get lost needing to get his shots too. They can also bring in Chuck Hayes as an undersized, but effective, rebounder and defender ...
Luther Head could be a key guy off the bench because he's become such a good shooter, he's improved his handle and he plays both ends while being able to defend the bigger guards.
An opposing team's scout sizes up the Rockets
There are a lot of questions here, but this can be a scary-good team if some of the questions are answered positively. Is Steve Francis going to be a cancer or is he going to accept his role? The same goes for Bonzi Wells. Mike James is another big question mark after having a horrendous year for Minnesota, which surprised me. And then how will they react to new coach Rick Adelman? In this case I'm referring primarily to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady because for the others it's not so much an issue ...
The key here is going to be Yao because I question if he can play the high post in the offense Adelman used to run at Sacramento. I'm sure Adelman will make an adjustment and play a 2-3 set rather than a 1-3-1 set. He used to use Chris Webber or Brad Miller flashing to the high post to turn and face and shoot. I think Yao will be able to come to the high post and hit a guy cutting or make the shot because he has a very good foul-line jumper. But why take a 7-6 guy away from the basket as a rebounder? He is capable of playing out high, but by doing so, he loses some of his value. I would be surprised if he lives out there. I think you'll see him go to the high post once in a while to take some pressure off -- they can take the double team away by sending him high, which opens up the backcourt cuts and baseline drives for their other guys ...
Because he played for Jeff Van Gundy the last four years, Yao is going to be one hell of player with a good work ethic. He now understands all about playing both ends. He's going to be fundamentally sound in a league that is headed in the other direction. Because he has that solid foundation, he'll be more capable of flourishing in Adelman's system. But he has to show consistency. He doesn't seem to catch a lot of breaks with injuries -- he'll just be getting in shape and then something bad happens. When he first came in, I felt he was going be one of the big forces in the history of the NBA, but he just hasn't been a dominant factor. This is Yao's sixth year and he has to start showing the consistent dominance ...
It's like there are two styles of young centers now, with Yao at one end of the spectrum and Amaré Stoudemire as the explosive full-court athlete at the other end. I think you can win equally with either style. There are more teams going small at center, but that's only because there are not many Yao Mings. If you're asking me if I would rather have Yao or Stoudemire, the first thing I'll want to know is who are my surrounding players? If I don't have a bunch of shooters for Yao to pass to out of the double team, then of course I'd rather have Amaré. And let's be honest, Amaré is so successful because he has the best point guard in the league pushing the tempo that suits Amaré's game perfectly. But if I can surround Yao with shooters, I'll take Yao because he's going to score one-on-one against anybody in the league. ...
The other issue for Yao is to stay out of foul trouble defensively. Van Gundy would have Yao play in a variety of ways, both fronting and playing behind. I'm a big Van Gundy fan, but I think you've got to teach him to play behind and make him a one-man zone. Jeff doesn't make those exceptions; he wants everybody playing man. But you've got to make exceptions. You can't have Yao out there guarding a pick-and-roll with the dribbler coming out. I think Adelman is more likely to use him as a one-man zone playing behind his man and protecting the rim, as opposed to wandering out of his area of comfort to blitz pick-and-rolls. He'll probably try to show at times, but I'll be surprised if you see him get both feet much above the foul line ...
It's going to be interesting to see if their improvements on offense can more than offset the erosion of their defense. In the absence of Van Gundy, they're not going to work at defense as much and they definitely won't be as good at that end of the floor. Offensively, they'll score more, there will be more open shots and they'll take them quicker. They'll try to spread teams out. Jeff was going to make sure Tracy and Yao got most of the shots. Adelman is going to space them out and isolate them, but he'll do it in the flow of their wide-open offense, as opposed to the iso post-up curls or the pick-and-roll clear-outs that Van Gundy used to run. It will be more isos through movement in the offense, trying to get the defense moving so when they iso Yao or Tracy, it will be harder for the defense to double-team or trap. That will be a real asset for Houston. I think their team is built to play that way, but again they've got to keep Yao in the low post more than Adelman has done with his previous big men. I see him moving from one block to the dotted line to the other block ...
I love McGrady as a player and I know his former coaches love him as a guy. What bothers me is when I read about him talking about how he's envisioning his retirement and planning his future after basketball. I want to hear the guy focused on winning a championship. It goes back to the same question that always comes up with him: Does he have the passion to win, will he get down and dirty enough to get it done? You look at what Kobe Bryant is doing, he's creating a lot of havoc and dissension, but it's because he'll do practically anything to be in position to win a championship. Believe it or not, I'd like to see more of that attitude from McGrady. He's definitely a great player. He's just missing that killer instinct ...
The other thing is that he's good enough to finish a bad play. He's like Vince Carter in that he can force a shot and make it work. The problem for Houston will be if Francis or Wells are taking bad shots ...
Another question is whether they have enough basketballs. With Francis, Bonzi and Tracy, that might be an issue. I'm thinking Francis is going to have to be a shooting guard. It's strange that he's entering his ninth year and we're still not sure who or what he is. His experiences with coaches the last few years have not been promising, to say the least. Orlando dumped him, Larry Brown couldn't wait to get rid of him and Isiah Thomas bought him out. Hopefully now he's looking at this as his last chance and he'll do everything he can to fit into what the team needs, in which case he can be a huge asset and salvage his career. But my suspicion is he'll see this as a homecoming and that he can be the man again just like he was last time in Houston ...
I know Wells loves Adelman, and the last time with him in Sacramento he had a good experience. But I also know he was a cancer at Memphis and things didn't work for him last year with Van Gundy either. He seems fine when things are going well, but when it's going south he's ready to jump ship. He's talented and can score in a lot of different ways, as a perimeter player or with his back to the basket. ...
I wonder if the reason they're going with guys like Francis and Bonzi is because of a stats analysis by their new GM, Daryl Morey, who is a Moneyball kind of guy. Is he seeing the potential of tremendous value in these guys who don't cost a lot of money? But I don't know if an old-school basketball guy would have gone in this direction because of the potential chemistry conflicts. That's why I say it's going to be interesting ...
At point guard I can see them starting Rafer Alston, but he could go wacky with all of the freedom in that offense. If they're getting poor results because of his decision-making, you could see James coming in and being what the doctor ordered. Rookie point guard Aaron Brooks was a good choice and I think he's going to surprise some people ...
Luis Scola is a skilled guy who could thrive in this system, though I wonder if he could get lost needing to get his shots too. They can also bring in Chuck Hayes as an undersized, but effective, rebounder and defender ...
Luther Head could be a key guy off the bench because he's become such a good shooter, he's improved his handle and he plays both ends while being able to defend the bigger guards.