PDA

View Full Version : Denver Nuggets season preview



Findog
10-25-2007, 09:05 AM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/specials/preview/2007/enemy.lines/nuggets.html

An opposing team's scout sizes up the Nuggets

Pressure is mounting on this franchise. In four years they've won four playoff games, and now they're a heavy [luxury] tax team with the third-highest payroll in the league. How do you continue paying that money for a team that can't win a playoff series? ...

On paper, Denver should be good and, with the exception of Utah, the Northwest should be weak. But the Nuggets have chemistry issues, worries about injuries and so much drama that they make things hard for themselves ...

You can tell from all of Carmelo Anthony's appearances for the national team each summer that he's serious about trying to get better and that he likes being in the gym. He was playing at power forward for USA Basketball last summer, and that had the benefit of preventing him from leaking out. Anthony could be a good rebounder if he didn't leak out so much to finish in transition at the other end ...

He and Allen Iverson appeared to get along well together, and it helped that Iverson kept talking about how it was Anthony's team and that he took a backseat. My issue is that Anthony is their best player for sure, but is he a real leader? We'll find that out this year because if they're going to go far with this team, then somebody's going to have to emerge as a leader ...

I see Iverson slowing. He had a good first game in the playoffs [against the Spurs] and after that he struggled. It takes him a lot of dribbles to get to the rim, and I'm talking east-west dribbles instead of north-south. When small guards lose a step, they tend to lose their game too. A big guard like Chauncey Billups can power his way through that kind of decline, but I think it can really hurt a small guy like Iverson. But Iverson is still respected: San Antonio put Bruce Bowen on him, though they also knew they were going to double Anthony and so they didn't want to waste Bowen on that situation. And Bowen's length obviously bothered Iverson ...

Denver will be better off if Iverson shifts to shooting guard, but that will mean putting Chucky Atkins at the point. He's not a true point guard and he takes a lot of threes. But Chucky likes the fast tempo and maybe he'll make the most of it knowing this is his best chance to accomplish something with a winning team ...

Backup point guard Anthony Carter may emerge as the best leader on the team. He can defend and he's unselfish, but guys won't listen to him so much because his contribution will be limited ...

The Nuggets are clearly at their best when they're running. They need to improve their half-court offense because the up-tempo game doesn't necessarily translate in the playoffs. Denver is one of the few teams whose primary post player is a small forward, and that gives the defense a break because they don't have to guard two big guys down in the block. Then you think about how much it would help Anthony if he had a pure shooter on the three-point line knocking down jumpers and spreading the floor ...

Marcus Camby is a perimeter big man who doesn't have a consistent shot. He makes a lot of shots, but not to the extent that a defender will stay out there with him constantly. That leaves either Anthony or NenÉ on the blocks, and often it's Anthony because he's the first one to get position because he leaked out on the rebound ...

I didn't understand the decision to give Camby the Defensive Player of the Year award. He can dominate defensively and he played 70 games last year, which was the second-most appearances of his career. But how can the defensive player award go to somebody from a terrible defensive team? That would be like giving Kevin Garnett the MVP last year for the 32-win Timberwolves. Shouldn't the top defensive player be someone who has a positive influence on one of the top defensive teams? Camby is an intelligent player, and with his length he blocks or alters shots. But he's not always a willing help defender because he fears foul trouble, so sometimes you won't see him come over to compensate for somebody else's mistake ...

The Nuggets try to create havoc defensively because those turnovers get their running game going. So their defense is built on deflections, overplaying, denying. They try to show a lot of different looks, but you'll notice that San Antonio in the playoffs doesn't have that much trouble adapting to them ...

Nené came on well at the end of the year, but for a big, burly guy, he's easily distracted. I've seen the officials make a tough call or two and it takes him out of his game because he gets so emotional. He needs to improve his shooting and his low-post game, but if you put him up front with Camby and then add a healthy Kenyon Martin sometime this year, that can be a very impressive front-line rotation ...

If they get Martin back at full speed for the second half of the year, that will be an interesting development. He can run the floor with great speed, and he can overpower people. He is a very aggressive and strong post defender, and he's quick with his moves. But Martin also creates turmoil and drama, and so the question becomes will he create more trouble than he's worth? Plus, he's another offensive big guy you don't have to guard unless he's 2 feet from the basket. He would be their best post defensive player, though, and their best hope for making a second-half surge ...

They get more depth from Eduardo Najera, who is clearly one of coach George Karl's favorite players and probably his most reliable frontcourt player. He's very intelligent but his body is wearing down ...

Stephen Hunter was acquired to get rid of Reggie Evans' contract. He has issues with his knee but he can run the floor and he's long ...

Then there's J.R. Smith, who was involved in a fatal car accident last summer [a passenger in a car driven by Smith died from injuries sustained in the crash]. This team is one big soap opera, I'm telling you. He can shoot it deep but he doesn't know how to play, and I could see him eventually winding up in Europe if this season doesn't go well for him ...

This will be an interesting year for Karl. He's an innovator who isn't afraid to try new things, and he's great for veteran players because he lets them play. He expects his players to understand the game -- when to shoot and when to pass -- but does he teach those things? And does he teach defense? This is a selfish team with a lot of issues that is going to need some guidance and leadership from somebody. But they're going to have to be running to be successful, and in the playoffs they have to get lucky and avoid a disciplined team like San Antonio.

peskypesky
10-25-2007, 10:57 PM
AI, Carmelo, K-mar, Camby, Nene....
On paper, they should be contenders. On paper, they scare me. Let's see what happens in reality though....

word
10-25-2007, 11:07 PM
I'm always afraid of Denver.... in the offseason. Then I see them play.

Reggie Miller
10-26-2007, 08:55 AM
I'm always afraid of Denver.... in the offseason. Then I see them play.


Actually, the Nuggets aren't even that good "on paper."

Whether or not you accept Dave Berri's win shares method, this is worth a read:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/10/24/misplacing-the-best-in-denver/

Again, even if you think Berri's statistical formulas are way off, the inputs are valid. In other words, Anthony and Iverson have low win shares and PAWS scores because they take too many bad shots. I think we can all agree that happened in the 1st round in 2007.