Roxsfan
11-02-2007, 12:24 PM
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/columnists/tcowlishaw/stories/110107dnspocowlishaw.373a5c4.html
Another NBA season is upon us and the big story is the return of the Boston Celtics.
Everywhere else. Not here.
The chance that the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen will get the Celtics into, oh, maybe the second round of those highly competitive Eastern Conference playoffs seems to have the media that covers the league, even the league itself to some degree, giddy.
A couple of words of caution: calm down.
The Celtics might win 45 games, but they aren't likely to play deep into May or get anywhere near June. Besides, it just doesn't matter.
The start of the season means it's time to figure out which team from Texas captures the title this year.
You know, in the last 14 seasons, the Celtics have actually won a playoff series two of those years. In that same span, Texas teams have captured six NBA titles. And, as Mavericks fans painfully know, change the end of Game 3 in '06 and the Lone Star State would own half the crowns over that period.
I see another title for Texas. But which team? There's so much to choose from.
Start with the Spurs. That's got to be a good place to start, since they have won four times in the last nine seasons. This is the league's model franchise, much like the Patriots are to the NFL, only without the hidden cameras.
The foundation for the Spurs' rise to greatness was luck. Considerable luck, if you think about it.
It takes luck to win a lottery as the Spurs did in 1987 to get David Robinson. Then it takes more luck (bad initially, then good) to lose Robinson for all but six games in 1996-97 and plunge from a 59-win team to a 20-win team to get back into the lottery and win it again to get Tim Duncan.
Since then, luck's had nothing to do with it. The Spurs have great scouting, a relentless coach and a winning nucleus.
I just don't think they win it all this year, because those 100-game-plus seasons that a championship requires exact a toll on the legs of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, maybe even Tony Parker.
They're going to deliver another high-quality if underappreciated season for their fans. But it ends in the second round.
As for the local club, coach Avery Johnson seems to be taking the right approach in easing off the gas (just a bit) and letting the players learn from their mistakes and lead from within.
At least that's what he says he will do.
And as I wrote last week, there's a lot to like about the core of this team. OK, so I said I hadn't seen a magazine that liked the Mavs' chances to win it all, and many of you were kind enough to point out that Sports Illustrated picked Dallas.
Thanks for your letters. Who reads that dinosaur, anyway?
The biggest concern still has to be the lack of a scoring presence down low, although the return of Juwan Howard helps a bit. And we'll see over time how much Dirk Nowitzki has improved in that area.
I think the Mavericks give fans their money's worth and get all the way to the ... Western Conference finals?
Yes. It's true. I see the Houston Rockets hoisting their third championship banner in June.
I realize the team has this one little flaw of NOT HAVING WON A PLAYOFF SERIES IN 10 YEARS.
However, twice in the last three years, it has led first-round series, only to lose seventh games to Dallas and Utah. Had they held on against the Jazz, the Rockets would have smoked Golden State with their inside power as Utah did. It just didn't happen.
That only gives the Rockets the same fuel to get through the 82-game season that drives the Mavericks. There is a real desire to prove critics wrong, to show that there is not some tangible flaw in the makeup of the team.
Sometimes these things just take time. Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, the best inside-outside combination of this generation, didn't win their first of three titles in Los Angeles until Year 4. Hint, hint: This is Year 4 for Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.
Yao's scoring rise has been steady. McGrady is a superior player at both ends of the floor. The team still has the defensive base that was instilled by Jeff Van Gundy, but now it has an outstanding if unloved offensive coach in Rick Adelman.
Seriously, what were the Trail Blazers doing in the 10 years before he got there and guided them to two NBA Finals? What were the Kings doing before he got there and turned them into the league's most entertaining team, a perennial 55-game winner that was a Vlade Divac tipped ball away from conquering the Lakers?
It will take time, but McGrady's offensive skills will be enhanced. There are better role players around the two stars than there have been. The bottom line: Three of the league's best five teams (the others are Phoenix and Chicago) play in Texas. Some people argue that nothing matters until the playoffs, but I think the Southwest Division race alone is going to be an incredible ride.
Any of these teams could win 60 games. But the one most likely to win 16 next spring looks like the one that hasn't quite made it to four in the last decade.
Another NBA season is upon us and the big story is the return of the Boston Celtics.
Everywhere else. Not here.
The chance that the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen will get the Celtics into, oh, maybe the second round of those highly competitive Eastern Conference playoffs seems to have the media that covers the league, even the league itself to some degree, giddy.
A couple of words of caution: calm down.
The Celtics might win 45 games, but they aren't likely to play deep into May or get anywhere near June. Besides, it just doesn't matter.
The start of the season means it's time to figure out which team from Texas captures the title this year.
You know, in the last 14 seasons, the Celtics have actually won a playoff series two of those years. In that same span, Texas teams have captured six NBA titles. And, as Mavericks fans painfully know, change the end of Game 3 in '06 and the Lone Star State would own half the crowns over that period.
I see another title for Texas. But which team? There's so much to choose from.
Start with the Spurs. That's got to be a good place to start, since they have won four times in the last nine seasons. This is the league's model franchise, much like the Patriots are to the NFL, only without the hidden cameras.
The foundation for the Spurs' rise to greatness was luck. Considerable luck, if you think about it.
It takes luck to win a lottery as the Spurs did in 1987 to get David Robinson. Then it takes more luck (bad initially, then good) to lose Robinson for all but six games in 1996-97 and plunge from a 59-win team to a 20-win team to get back into the lottery and win it again to get Tim Duncan.
Since then, luck's had nothing to do with it. The Spurs have great scouting, a relentless coach and a winning nucleus.
I just don't think they win it all this year, because those 100-game-plus seasons that a championship requires exact a toll on the legs of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, maybe even Tony Parker.
They're going to deliver another high-quality if underappreciated season for their fans. But it ends in the second round.
As for the local club, coach Avery Johnson seems to be taking the right approach in easing off the gas (just a bit) and letting the players learn from their mistakes and lead from within.
At least that's what he says he will do.
And as I wrote last week, there's a lot to like about the core of this team. OK, so I said I hadn't seen a magazine that liked the Mavs' chances to win it all, and many of you were kind enough to point out that Sports Illustrated picked Dallas.
Thanks for your letters. Who reads that dinosaur, anyway?
The biggest concern still has to be the lack of a scoring presence down low, although the return of Juwan Howard helps a bit. And we'll see over time how much Dirk Nowitzki has improved in that area.
I think the Mavericks give fans their money's worth and get all the way to the ... Western Conference finals?
Yes. It's true. I see the Houston Rockets hoisting their third championship banner in June.
I realize the team has this one little flaw of NOT HAVING WON A PLAYOFF SERIES IN 10 YEARS.
However, twice in the last three years, it has led first-round series, only to lose seventh games to Dallas and Utah. Had they held on against the Jazz, the Rockets would have smoked Golden State with their inside power as Utah did. It just didn't happen.
That only gives the Rockets the same fuel to get through the 82-game season that drives the Mavericks. There is a real desire to prove critics wrong, to show that there is not some tangible flaw in the makeup of the team.
Sometimes these things just take time. Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, the best inside-outside combination of this generation, didn't win their first of three titles in Los Angeles until Year 4. Hint, hint: This is Year 4 for Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.
Yao's scoring rise has been steady. McGrady is a superior player at both ends of the floor. The team still has the defensive base that was instilled by Jeff Van Gundy, but now it has an outstanding if unloved offensive coach in Rick Adelman.
Seriously, what were the Trail Blazers doing in the 10 years before he got there and guided them to two NBA Finals? What were the Kings doing before he got there and turned them into the league's most entertaining team, a perennial 55-game winner that was a Vlade Divac tipped ball away from conquering the Lakers?
It will take time, but McGrady's offensive skills will be enhanced. There are better role players around the two stars than there have been. The bottom line: Three of the league's best five teams (the others are Phoenix and Chicago) play in Texas. Some people argue that nothing matters until the playoffs, but I think the Southwest Division race alone is going to be an incredible ride.
Any of these teams could win 60 games. But the one most likely to win 16 next spring looks like the one that hasn't quite made it to four in the last decade.