The BS Report -- Literally

[Findog]

I really shouldn't care what a retard like Bill Simmons thinks, but I was listening to his latest podcast, and he had Marc Stein and Ric Bucher on, and he asked them to list their title contenders. He and Bucher were in concurrence on the following teams:

San Antonio, Phoenix, Boston, Houston, Denver and Utah

Stein basically said that he thinks the West team will win and ruled out Boston, and he put the Mavs in there with the other two Texas teams and Phoenix.

Simmons and Bucher both agreed that Dallas was disqualified because they were permanently damaged "psychologically" by the Golden State series. They went on to say that because the Mavs didn't blow the Warriors out in that game last week, and because they're "only" 5-2 while Dirk wasn't off to a great start, it further solidified their belief that Dallas was done. Since of course championships are won and lost in November.

I will say that the last two playoff exits have earned the Mavs an army of doubters and critics, they've made this bed and now they have to sleep in. The regular season results condemn them either way: they will almost certainly not equal or surpass last season's win total, and critics can say "Oh, they're not as good as they were last year." If they do equal or surpass last year's win total, then those critics will take a wait and see approach towards the playoffs.

But this is what gets my goat. If I were a gambler, I'd put money only on San Antonio or Boston before Dallas. San Antonio is obvious because they're overall the best team in the League, Boston because they have such an easy road to the Finals playing in the East, and they might be fresher than a West team that has had to play two and possibly three grueling series. If you disqualify Dallas, then you have to disqualify 27 other teams. Phoenix? They can't beat San Antonio and they have no interior defense whatsoever after trading away Kurt Thomas. Plus D'Antoni doesn't hold minutes down for his core in the regular season and doesn't trust his bench. Houston? Yao and Tracy have a history of being unable to stay healthy, their defense will suffer without Van Gundy, some of their roster additions that looked so great on paper (Scola, Steve Francis, Mike James) aren't making the impact they were counting on, and let's see them win one playoff series before we pencil them in for four.

Still, I can see putting those two teams ahead or equal with Dallas. What chaps my ass is Denver? Utah? Are you kidding me? Denver, which plays no defense whatsoever even with Marcus Camby, and is counting on him, Kenyon Martin and Nene to stay healthy? The Nuggets, who are counting on guys like J.R. Smith to make regular contributions? Denver is better than Dallas? Really?

Utah -- They'd be tougher, and they have all the elements you look for (excellent defensive halfcourt team, a true floor general in Deron Williams, a low-post beast in Boozer, a big man who can stretch defenses in Okur, lots of good players in the supporting cast that know their roles), but they're still a young team, they were taken apart by the Spurs, they don't have any consistent outside shooting outside of Okur, and even if they could beat the Mavs, I don't see them having narrowed the gap between themselves and San Antonio.

The other gem from Simmons is when he talked about Dirk going to Australia for 3 months (it was actually 4 weeks Bill), and how he thinks Dirk had a mental breakdown and he can't believe nobody is talking about it. And he would know this how? Hey, Dirk takes losses hard, it's obvious how much he cares, but a "mental breakdown?" This is really taking that Dallas psychobabble talk pretty far.

Yeah, millionaire athletes don't travel and take vacations in the offseason. That's totally unusual and cause for alarm if you're a Mavericks fan.

[JamStone]

I think all three have about an equal chance ... about 1%

[Findog]

I think all three have about an equal chance ... about 1%

You can make an compelling argument Dallas won't win a title. You can make an even better argument Denver or Utah won't.

[monosylab1k]

I don't know if they're psychologically damaged or not, but I do know that Dallas is the only team in the NBA capable of beating San Antonio in a 7 game series.

[Findog]

I don't know if they're psychologically damaged or not, but I do know that Dallas is the only team in the NBA capable of beating San Antonio in a 7 game series.

Bucher made one good point - that the playoffs are kind of the luck of the draw. San Antonio avoided Dallas, Phoenix ran into their own personal brick wall, as did the Mavericks. Talking about whether or not a team can win a title is dependent upon who they play. If the Rockets are healthy, I think they have a decent shot on paper against San Antonio, but I don't see them beating Phoenix.

[monosylab1k]

I don't see Houston beating anybody decent in the playoffs (SA, DAL, PHX, DEN, UTAH). They better pray they get a first round matchup with the Lakers or Hornets. I think with Boston's success, Houston is going to be this year's resident "Team that was WAY overrated before the season started".

[Findog]

I don't see Houston beating anybody decent in the playoffs (SA, DAL, PHX, DEN, UTAH). They better pray they get a first round matchup with the Lakers or Hornets. I think with Boston's success, Houston is going to be this year's resident "Team that was WAY overrated before the season started".

It's funny now that they were picked to win it all because of SCOLA, Francis and Mike James. Should we see a Boston-San Antonio Finals, just do one of those splitscreen comparisons with Popovich and Doc Rivers if you're having trouble on whom to wager.

[MrChug]

I just think your collapse put your group in such infamy that no one is willing to stick thier neck out to bet on you anymore because this years team is exactly LAST years' team.

[stretch]

I don't think anyone should sleep on Boston either. They have a good team there.

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, James Posey, Eddie House, Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis...

They got a lot of good shooters and slashers, and with Garnett on the boards, I think they have a much better shot than some of you think at winning the title. I don't think they would beat San Antonio or Dallas, but I do think that they are still capable of beating them.

[stretch]

It's funny now that they were picked to win it all because of SCOLA, Francis and Mike James. Should we see a Boston-San Antonio Finals, just do one of those splitscreen comparisons with Popovich and Doc Rivers if you're having trouble on whom to wager.
Personally, I think what will make them dangerous come playoff time is Bonzi Wells. The guy always shows up in the playoffs, and is an incredible talent. I see him being a major part of that team's success as the season goes on.

[Findog]

I just think your collapse put your group in such infamy that no one is willing to stick thier neck out to bet on you anymore because this years team is exactly LAST years' team.

Like I said, it aint smart money right now to put Dallas past San Antonio, or even Phoenix. And losing like they did is going to create doubters and critics. But I would put them ahead of Denver and Utah. We're not the sixth-best team in the Western Conference. Just seems like an overreaction.

[Findog]

Personally, I think what will make them dangerous come playoff time is Bonzi Wells. The guy always shows up in the playoffs, and is an incredible talent. I see him being a major part of that team's success as the season goes on.

He's a Spurs killer, and he's played well for Adelman before. They needed to get more contributions on offense from outside Yao/Tmac, but I don't think the defense is going to be the same without JVG.

[samikeyp]

In a 7 game series, Dallas takes out Denver or Utah easily.

SA, Phoenix, and Dallas still have the best shots at the West, maybe Houston if T-Whack can stay healthy.

Simmons blows.

[Findog]

I don't think anyone should sleep on Boston either. They have a good team there.

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, James Posey, Eddie House, Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis...

They got a lot of good shooters and slashers, and with Garnett on the boards, I think they have a much better shot than some of you think at winning the title. I don't think they would beat San Antonio or Dallas, but I do think that they are still capable of beating them.

Let's root for the Clippers this year to not be completely terrible, bc the last thing I want is Cassell getting bought out and going to Boston.

[MagnusKrauss]

The road to the Championships goes through San Antonio.

Utah and Denver, while both are good teams, have little to negligible chance to get past our Spurs. Dallas, on the other hand, gives us problems. I'd say Utah has better chance than Denver though.

Houston looks good, but didn't Tmac injure his elbow recently?

In the East....Boston looks good. not a lock, by the way they work their stars. I expect a minor injury. Ray Allen, maybe? Detroit may reach the ECF, but the Finals...i dunno.

[Findog]

I don't know if they're psychologically damaged or not, but I do know that Dallas is the only team in the NBA capable of beating San Antonio in a 7 game series.

One other point is that we won that series by a fingernail. And I know the Spurs badly want to pay us back and finally repeat. Not that they care what people say or write about them outside of their locker room, but they've had two of their titles maligned and called into question unfairly, and a repeat would finally shut a lot of people up.

Tim, Manu and Parker certainly aren't old, but Barry, Finley, Horry and Bowen are all on the wrong side of 33. Sooner or later that cliche is going to come true, although their cap situation looks great after this season. Those three main guys will do their thing, ultimately I think the Spurs chances hinge on their aging supporting cast.

[Walter Craparita]

I still view Dallas as the #1 threat.

[samikeyp]

One other point is that we won that series by a fingernail. And I know the Spurs badly want to pay us back and finally repeat. Not that they care what people say or write about them outside of their locker room, but they've had two of their titles maligned and called into question unfairly, and a repeat would finally shut a lot of people up.

True but Dallas did win that series which is more than Phoenix can say. I think that helps the Mavs knowing that they have proven themselves. I think, on the same tip, the loss to GS while not making them mental vegetables, does have some effect. We won't see what kind of effect, IMO, until the post-season.

None of us actually know though, what the teams actually think. I honestly don't think that the Spurs players or coaches care what is said about them nor do I think they dwell on payback to any team. I believe that their main focus is winning ball games one at a time because by doing that, they will accomplish their goals. Conversely, I think that Avery is the coach Dallas needs to get through any mental issues they may or may not have.

[samikeyp]

I still view Dallas as the #1 threat.

I agree.

[Findog]

True but Dallas did win that series which is more than Phoenix can say. I think that helps the Mavs knowing that they have proven themselves. I think, on the same tip, the loss to GS while not making them mental vegetables, does have some effect. We won't see what kind of effect, IMO, until the post-season.

None of us actually know though, what the teams actually think. I honestly don't think that the Spurs players or coaches care what is said about them nor do I think they dwell on payback to any team. I believe that their main focus is winning ball games one at a time because by doing that, they will accomplish their goals. Conversely, I think that Avery is the coach Dallas needs to get through any mental issues they may or may not have.

I posted this same rant on a Mavs board, and one of the best responses was to the effect that Dallas has lost all benefit of the doubt. And if you're thin-skinned, it's going to be a long regular season. And until they actually do win a title, those doubts will remain. Basically everything positive they do until May will be met with a "yeah, but," and right now there isn't an effective comeback for that.

[samikeyp]

I posted this same rant on a Mavs board, and one of the best responses was to the effect that Dallas has lost all benefit of the doubt. And if you're thin-skinned, it's going to be a long regular season. And until they actually do win a title, those doubts will remain. Basically everything positive they do until May will be met with a "yeah, but," and right now there isn't an effective comeback for that

Agreed.

Plus, you can't be thin-skinned in the SA-Dallas rivalry. :)

[FromWayDowntown]

I think it's asinine to think that the Mavericks aren't among the elite of the elite in the league right now.

It should be obvious that the Mavs have the talent to play into the late rounds of the playoffs and that they have guys who can win games in those circumstances. They are a real bitch to defend unless you have a slew of really long and athletic guys to throw at them; they showed last year that they can sustain a fairly high level of defensive excellence over a sizeable stretch of time. They're the sort of team that might appear to struggle but still end up with 55-60 wins.

What scares me slightly is that the Mavs are starting to take on that look of a team that will be quickly forgotten by the national media over the next few months and will be flying under the radar, as the cliche goes, when the playoffs approach. Already, as the podcast demonstrates, pundits are disregarding the Mavericks and their relatively underwhelming start will only fuel that indifference. But pundits don't decide championships; talent and shrewd management have a much greater say about who ultimately seizes the gold ball. For all that Avery is, he's not dumb -- he knows that his team peaked mentally way too early last year. He's making the same kind of early season moves now that Pop has made for years -- just kind of letting things go, not rushing players back, not playing guys huge minutes to win games, and things like that. I don't know that the formula works for every team and I think that Pop has his formula down to a science, but I do think that in a general sense, Avery's taking the right tack with the Mavs thus far. As he keeps their focus on the bigger picture, he is dealing with a team that clearly has the physical talent to reach the Finals. Their heads are a different question, but I think it would probably be a great help to solve that problem if the Mavs face some adversity in this regular season and find ways to overcome it. It's not quite the same as developing playoff resolve, but I have a hunch that the Mavs will be a bit more put-together at playoff time in 2008.

[Findog]

I think it's asinine to think that the Mavericks aren't among the elite of the elite in the league right now.

It should be obvious that the Mavs have the talent to play into the late rounds of the playoffs and that they have guys who can win games in those circumstances. They are a real bitch to defend unless you have a slew of really long and athletic guys to throw at them; they showed last year that they can sustain a fairly high level of defensive excellence over a sizeable stretch of time. They're the sort of team that might appear to struggle but still end up with 55-60 wins.

What scares me slightly is that the Mavs are starting to take on that look of a team that will be quickly forgotten by the national media over the next few months and will be flying under the radar, as the cliche goes, when the playoffs approach. Already, as the podcast demonstrates, pundits are disregarding the Mavericks and their relatively underwhelming start will only fuel that indifference. But pundits don't decide championships; talent and shrewd management have a much greater say about who ultimately seizes the gold ball. For all that Avery is, he's not dumb -- he knows that his team peaked mentally way too early last year. He's making the same kind of early season moves now that Pop has made for years -- just kind of letting things go, not rushing players back, not playing guys huge minutes to win games, and things like that. I don't know that the formula works for every team and I think that Pop has his formula down to a science, but I do think that in a general sense, Avery's taking the right tack with the Mavs thus far. As he keeps their focus on the bigger picture, he is dealing with a team that clearly has the physical talent to reach the Finals. Their heads are a different question, but I think it would probably be a great help to solve that problem if the Mavs face some adversity in this regular season and find ways to overcome it. It's not quite the same as developing playoff resolve, but I have a hunch that the Mavs will be a bit more put-together at playoff time in 2008.

Great take as usual FWD. Teams so far are mimicking the GS approach, going small on offense when they can, and employing a zone and those blind-side double teams on Dirk on defense. Avery has responded by trying to turn Dirk into a facillitator. Will it work? It's not something that comes naturally to him, but he is averaging 6 assists a game, even more than Devin. That's double his career average. He will only get better at it as the year goes on.

Part of that loss to Golden State was on him for not doing a good enough job of handling the double teams and partly on his teammates for not being able to make teams pay for employing that strategy of selling out against Dirk. Last year's team was built upon the model of Dirk turning in 25 and 12 every night on 50% shooting. We need more playmakers than that.

[ElNono]

I put the Spurs one step ahead of any team right now. Simply because they're playing great, they've been healthy, it's not just the same core, but pretty much the same team that won it all last year, and on top of that they have that extra year of maturity in them. On the second step I would put Dallas and Utah. Simply because they have great talent and also great coaches. Our victory against Utah last year is deceiving. It's hard to win in Utah. We have to thank Manu for some heroics to pull off that Game 4 win, or it could have been a more gruesome series. Plus Deron Williams was injured on the last game. I think Dallas has more talent, but Utah has the better coach. Next comes Phoenix, that will go only as far as Nash will take them. I think D'Antoni is a fraud when it comes to playoff games. Then comes the rest of the teams, that either have a good coach and not enough talent (Lakers) or great talent and not a good enough coach (Denver). I don't think much about the East. Barring some injury in the Finals, whoever comes out of the west *should* win the championship.

Just my 2c.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

If AJ is smart enough to start amassing bulletin board material this early in the year that's kind of scary. If he can get them far enough under the radar that's very good for this team. For some reason AJ's Mavs don't handle being the favorites very well, but, like AJ, I think they respond very well to the underdog role. Last time they would have been an underdog was against the Spurs in 06, and that was as good as I've seen that Mavs team look. Compare that to the flame outs they suffered against Miami after going up 2-0 and the loss to the Warriors.

Some guys just don't handle that kind of pressure very well. Would a smart coach either try to hammer round pegs into square holes and make these guys handle it, or would he quietly find a way to make that sort of pressure disapear?

As for the original point, no fucking way in hell are the Nuggets any kind of threat. I don't know what Carmelo put in the brownies he mailed Stephen A. Smith, but it was clearly some good shit and he started passing them around the office at ESPN. As for the Jazz, I could certainly buy them as a contender, but I'd rank them at best as equals with the Mavs.

[Findog]

If AJ is smart enough to start amassing bulletin board material this early in the year that's kind of scary. If he can get them far enough under the radar that's very good for this team. For some reason AJ's Mavs don't handle being the favorites very well, but, like AJ, I think they respond very well to the underdog role. .

+1. We were in kind of a unique position last year. We were the overwhelming favorites even though we hadn't ever won anything, since Miami was suffering from a title hangover/injuries and was never a threat to repeat. Teams that have won titles can handle that pressure of being the favorite pretty well, but it's probably pretty hard when you haven't done it yourself.

[THE Dr. Evil]

The Sonics lost in the first round of the playoffs to the #1 seed and made it to the NBA finals a season later. I think Dallas is still a great team and just because their lcuk ran out last year doesn't mean they still are not a good team.

[FromWayDowntown]

The Sonics lost in the first round of the playoffs to the #1 seed and made it to the NBA finals a season later. I think Dallas is still a great team and just because their lcuk ran out last year doesn't mean they still are not a good team.

Actually, to get picky, it took the Sonics two years to reach the Finals. They were the #1 seed in 1994 and lost to Denver in 5; in 1995, they were knocked out again in the First Round (to LA); they were the #1 seed in the West again in 1996 and went to the Finals.

[Reggie Miller]

At the risk of repeating myself (like I really care!), Denver isn't even a paper tiger. Looking at some of the Nuggets' stats from last season will curl your hair. This team doesn't play much defense, and they cannot score enough points to win against a team that plays defense for 48 minutes. Denver doesn't have much of an offensive plan/identity, and when A.I. and Carmelo don't shoot well, they struggle to score. The Spurs saw the "real" Denver in the playoffs last season.

EDIT: I forgot Utah. In order for Utah to win this season, it would take a cosmic convergence: 3-4 players having career years, a good draw, and some key injuries to other WC teams. I don't even give Denver this chance...

[Bruno]

I really think all the mentally broken thing is exaggerated.
A NBA player plays basketball for something like 20 years. It's not because they lost against GS last year that Mavs players will turn a bunch of pussy.
Basketball is too a skill game before being a mental game. Mavs players have chocked last year and they are maybe not the most mentally tough team in the league but they remain a very skilled team and that's why they are dangerous.

My power ranking for West team is :
1. Spurs
2. Suns
3. Mavs
4. Nuggets
5. Rockets
6. Jazz

I've never been really high on Mavs. I consider Suns as a better team. Mavs is a harder matchup for Spurs than Suns (even more after they lost Kurt Thomas) but it's a power ranking and not a "against the Spurs" ranking.
I find the Nuggets team very dangerous. They aren't running on all their cylinders for the moment fut their upside is really high. They have a lot of good to great players and could become very hard to beat.

[ambchang]

I posted this same rant on a Mavs board, and one of the best responses was to the effect that Dallas has lost all benefit of the doubt. And if you're thin-skinned, it's going to be a long regular season. And until they actually do win a title, those doubts will remain. Basically everything positive they do until May will be met with a "yeah, but," and right now there isn't an effective comeback for that.
Neither could any team outside of the Spurs, or possibly Detroit and Miami, come with with an adequate answer to the "yeah, but" reaction. People kept dogging on the Mavs because they lost in the Finals 2 years ago and in the 1st round last year, but compared to a team like the Suns, who couldn't get past either the Spurs or the Mavs the last 3 years, or Utah, who doesn't have much interior defense (Boozer? please), or Houston, who never even got out of the 1st round. How Denver got in the mix is beyond me, they have disappointed every single season because it is proven that their sum is lesser than the parts (both scorers dominates the ball, the interior players duplicate the strengths of each other, no reliable shooters, no true facilitator, crazy meltdown coach).

Mavs is the #1 threat to the Spurs. There isn't even another team close to it.

[bdictjames]

Rant over?

I thought you could have added more.

[Findog]

Rant over?

I thought you could have added more.

Yeah, I know, it was too long. But it wasn't an 8,000 word blow job to all thing Boston, so in that sense, I believe it's an improvement on a typical Simmons effort.

[leemajors]

mono must be torn between his worship of simmons and simmons' trashing of his basketball team. simmons also predicted 62+ wins for boston.

[Leetonidas]

As much as I hate Dallas, they are a good team, and a much better team than anyone not located in San Antonio.

[dirk4mvp]

Damn I usually enjoy the bs report and all the crazy shit he talks about, but this is just idiotic.

[timvp]

Not listing Dallas as a contender is ridiculous. Saying Dallas is the odds on favorite to win the championship is much closer to reality than saying Dallas isn't in the top five.

[MrChug]

Like I said, it aint smart money right now to put Dallas past San Antonio, or even Phoenix. And losing like they did is going to create doubters and critics. But I would put them ahead of Denver and Utah. We're not the sixth-best team in the Western Conference. Just seems like an overreaction.

Well I agree. Short of Phoenix, we're just not the "sexy" pick at this point in the year.

[Findog]

Well I agree. Short of Phoenix, we're just not the "sexy" pick at this point in the year.

I understand the sports pundits are frontrunning types, and they scurried off the bandwagon after the Mavs lost to the Warriors because that series made them look like fools. They stake their reps by predicting the future. So it's no surprise that once bitten, you're twice shy. But I simply DO NOT UNDERSTAND how the Suns get such a free pass and are a trendy pick, when they have just as many questions and concerns about their ability to win a title.

[Reggie Miller]

I try to ignore it all as much as possible. (I don't even have cable television.) Others have written about this more eloquently, but sports journalism is really in the toliet. You now have a 24/7 news cycle, regardless of whether anything truly newsworthy happened that day. There is "too much media:" tv, internet, radio, etc. all trying to outdo each other in content, speed, etc. The ethos is now totally different. Writers don't make a preseason prediction based on the odds, becuase they will have 30-50 opportunities to flip-flop before the season is over.

ESPN really slays me, becuase they are symbolic of everything wrong about merketing, covering, and televising the NBA, despite the fact that they have a vested financial interest in its success. The classic example would be talking about how bad the ratings were going to be for the 2007 Finals. Why would anyone do this? It just astounds me. Hollinger is their only NBA writer with any credibility at all, and that isn't saying much for many hardcore NBA fans.

(Personally, I think Hollinger is good at what he does, but basketball does not lend itself to the SABR-inspired approach. This does hurt his credibility with a lot of people. Still, we're not talking Screamin' A. Smith, either.)