Iowa Caucus Polls

[Nbadan]

Post the latest Iowa polls you find in this thread...

Here is one from Rasmussen today...Clinton 30%, Obama 26% and Edwards 22%

Rasmussen: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama Tied in Iowa


"The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 find Hillary Clinton at 27%, Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10% while Joe Biden earns 4% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants.
These results reflect little change from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted earlier in the month. In the previous survey Clinton had 29% support with Edwards at 25% and Obama at 24%."

...

"Currently, in Iowa, Clinton attracts 30% of the vote from women while Obama earns 26% and Edwards 22%. Among men, it’s Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 23% (see crosstabs)."

"In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates."

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus)

[JoeChalupa]

I just saw one on FoxNews that showed Hillary at 26%, Edwards at 24% and Obama at 23%.

[SA210]

We should have a vbookie on the Iowa Caucus.

My bet would be on John Edwards.

[Nbadan]

Huckabee runs with the Norris and becomes the front-runner...


Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.

Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.

Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives.

Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.

Register (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/NEWS09/71130037/-1/caucus)

[Nbadan]

Osama, Obama takes the Demo nomination lead...


Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa's Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll.


Huckabee, Obama now lead despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucus-goers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.


Register (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/NEWS09/71201009/0/iowapoll07)

[Nbadan]

The tale of the tape:


Obama's gained 6 points in the last month and has opened up a statistically insignificant lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. That lead looks even weaker when you consider a chunk of Obama's support comes from younger adults, who are notoriously poor caucus-goers. (Only 5 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers are under 25. In 2004, only 17 percent were under 29.)

So he needs to light some fires under those voters. Last week, he tried to do that by unloading a 50,000-piece flier aimed at college students. The piece even urged those "not from Iowa" to register to vote and caucus in their campus communities.

Obama might also be expected to spend a little more time in rural Iowa. He runs weakest there, yet 47 percent of the likely caucus-goers say they're from rural areas or small towns.

Clinton's slipped in the last month and is losing support of women. Obama carries their votes 31 percent to 26 percent, and women form 59 percent of the likely caucus-going audience. Among women, 51 percent say they have very favorable feelings toward him.

She continues to be vexed by her relatively high negative ratings. Close to a third of Democratic activists view her negatively, and that may deny her a first-place finish on caucus night, despite her good organization. She's had some success improving her image by making lots of personal appearances in Iowa, so look for her to add campaign time in the state.

John Edwards is in third place at 23 percent. It'll be fatal for the guy who finished second in 2004 to finish in third place now. Yet his support is unchanged from October. While he's not improved in the last month, he hasn't slipped more, either.

This poll might be a sign that Edwards should go back to that softer style and more positive, moderate message that served him so well in 2004. His populist themes and indignant style smack of class warfare and haven't moved numbers in Iowa.

Register (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/OPINION01/71201010)

[JoeChalupa]

Go Barack Obama!!! :clap

[xrayzebra]

Go Barack Obama!!! :clap

Where do you want him to go?????
:lol :lol :lol :lol

[JoeChalupa]

All the way!! Sounds like Hillary is going to get dirty now that Obama is picking up steam.

[xrayzebra]

Yep, Obama is the man. He has such a record of achievement!
Like Billary. By the way, can you tell me who his spiritual advisor
is and what he professes to?

[Mr. Peabody]

Yep, Obama is the man. He has such a record of achievement!
Like Billary. By the way, can you tell me who his spiritual advisor
is and what he professes to?

Yes, because the GOP candidates have so much more of a record to run on.

[Mr. Peabody]

Yep, Obama is the man. He has such a record of achievement!
Like Billary. By the way, can you tell me who his spiritual advisor
is and what he professes to?

I don't know who his adviser is, but I think his church professes liberation theology.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Yep, Obama is the man. He has such a record of achievement!
Like Billary. By the way, can you tell me who his spiritual advisor
is and what he professes to?


does he hate gays..that's what ray wants to know..

[JoeChalupa]

Yep, Obama is the man. He has such a record of achievement!
Like Billary. By the way, can you tell me who his spiritual advisor
is and what he professes to?

Well he graduated from Columbia University, where he majored in political science and specialized in international relations. He then attended Harvard Law School, graduated magna cum laude, and served as the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. After law school, he worked as a community organizer and a civil rights lawyer in Chicago. He also taught at the University of Chicago Law School as a senior lecturer specializing in constitutional law. He also kicked Alan Keyes ass by winning over 70% of the vote for Senator.

He's a very intelligent man and while his "political" achievements may not be up to your standards but look at the records of Dubya and Cheney and where it has gotten us.

As for as his spiritual advisor is? That is his own personal business.

[SA210]

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=msnbc&vid=6c7ea057-4cab-4b45-a513-08bd3ec55ea8

Time Poll with John Edwards leading with 29%, Hillary 24%, Obama 22%.

[clambake]

He's a very intelligent man and while his "political" achievements may not be up to your standards but look at the records of Dubya and Cheney and where it has gotten us.

As for as his spiritual advisor is? That is his own personal business.
ray used to visit a brothel in the middle east where they held women as sex slaves.

you'd think anyone could meet his standards.

[Nbadan]

Here is how the Iowa independent sees the Democratic Iowa caucus shaping up....


First Place

Barack Obama -- Upward Momentum -- Obama has enjoyed a great week of press following his events with Oprah Winfrey. His organization
is showing signs of real strength with its nearly 1,000 house parties across the state Thursday night, and he seems to have strong second-
choice support. If the caucuses were held tonight, he would win.

Second Place

John Edwards -- Edwards may still have the strongest organization in Iowa, but that is no longer enough to keep him in the number one spot.
His base of supporters is slowly shrinking, and many seem to be floating in Obama's direction. Edwards still has many talented activists in his
corner and may be viable in more rural precincts than Obama, but if the caucuses were held tonight, we predict he would take second.

Third Place

Hillary Clinton -- Downward Momentum -- Clinton's campaign has demonstrated a renewed commitment to retail politics at recent events,
but neither she nor her husband are drawing the large crowds they once did. Fairly or not, she is slowly being branded as the 'negative'
candidate, diminishing her second-choice support. The excitement surrounding her candidacy is waning, and her campaign seems to be
too busy putting out public relations fires from day to day to do much about it. The campaign itself, along with independent groups like
Emily's List, have devoted significant resources to build an organization here that should not be underestimated, but, if the caucuses
were held tonight, we think she would finish third.

Iowa Independent (http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1643)


Biden comes in fourth, Richardson is fifth, Dodd slips in at sixth while Kucinich comes in at seventh with Gravel bringing up the rear.
Mark Penn is doing a great job -- for Obama and Edwards. I for one hope Penn doesn't get fired.

[xrayzebra]

ray used to visit a brothel in the middle east where they held women as sex slaves.

you'd think anyone could meet his standards.

Well old buddy, you certainly don't. But again that's
a whole different story, isn't it.............

[clambake]

Well old buddy, you certainly don't. But again that's
a whole different story, isn't it.............
maybe you can bring up your past escapades while sitting around the christmas tree celebrating baby Jesus. i'm sure the family would love that.

[01Snake]

maybe you can bring up your past escapades while sitting around the christmas tree celebrating baby Jesus. i'm sure the family would love that.

Ho's need love too.

[Nbadan]

With about 2 weeks before voting begins Obama holds a 4 point lead over Clinton in Iowa...according to a ABC News poll....

Obama's Theme of Fresh Start Resonates Strongly Against Clinton Campaign


Currently, among likely Democratic caucus-goers in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 33 percent support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards, with single-digit support for the other Democratic candidates.

In this poll, when supporters of single-digit candidates are reallocated to their second choice among the top three, Obama goes to a lead, with 37 percent support; Clinton has 31 percent, Edwards 26 percent.

ABC PDF (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1056a1IowaDemocraticCaucus.pdf)

[JoeChalupa]

With about 2 weeks before voting begins Obama holds a 4 point lead over Clinton in Iowa...according to a ABC News poll....

Obama's Theme of Fresh Start Resonates Strongly Against Clinton Campaign



ABC PDF (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1056a1IowaDemocraticCaucus.pdf)

Keep the hope alive!!

[inconvertible]

edwards is going to win.

[JoeChalupa]

edwards is going to win.

I can see that happening. It really depends, obviously, on who shows up Jan.3. Edwards has the edge there. If the Obama supporters truly show up then he can take Iowa. If Hillary wins Iowa she could begin a roll that will be very difficult to stop.

[SA210]

We should have a vbookie on the Iowa Caucus.

My bet would be on John Edwards.

[SA210]

POLL: EDWARDS LEADS IN IOWA


From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro

In an InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa, Edwards leads among (977) likely voters 30-26-24 over Clinton and Obama. Edwards is also the clear second choice winner, 42-29-28 over Clinton and Obama. This is the first poll to show Edwards solely in the lead in Iowa since July.
Among highly likely caucus goers (of which there are 633), though, the three are deadlocked: Obama 27, Edwards 26, Clinton 24. Edwards again wins second choice, 42-31-27 over Clinton and Obama. The poll was conducted Dec. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 3% for the likely voters section and 4% for the highly likely voters section.

On the Republican side, among (833) likely voters, here are the numbers: Huckabee 28, Romney 25, Thompson 10, McCain 9, Paul 6, Giuliani 6. Among (418) highly likely voters, Romney leads with 28%, then Huckabee 25, Thompson 11, McCain 7, Paul 6, Giuliani 5, Tancredo 4.

A national Diageo/Hotline poll shows a narrowing between the Democrats and a tight race on the Republican side. The Dems: Clinton 35%, Obama 30, Edwards 14. The Republicans: Giuliani 21%, Huckabee 17, Romney 13, Thompson 11, McCain 10, Paul 7.


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/18/524511.aspx

[SA210]

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll


By Tom Baxter
Southern Political Report

December 18, 2007 — John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.

The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.

Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.

Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.

Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.

“If Edwards is the second choice at this stage of those who intend to vote for other Democrats, then it would not be surprising if he produced a bit of a shock in Iowa,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.

Towery said the firm employed the same methodology with regard to asking the second choice of those who were voting for candidates other than those in the top tier, and obtained an accurate picture of John Kerry’s lead.

The poll of 977 Democrats who said they will go to the caucuses, conducted Sunday and Monday has a error margin of plus-or-minus 3 percent. The tighter screen of 633 voters has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percent.

The Republican race is a duel between Huckabee, with 28 percent in this poll, and Romney, with 25 percent.

Rudy Giuliani, who has led most national polls of the Republican candidates, garnered only is in 6th place in this poll, behind Fred Thompson, with 10 percent, John McCain, with 9 percent, and Ron Paul, with 6 percent, in addition to the two frontrunners.

In the tighter voter screen, the frontrunners change places: Romney leads with 28 percent, to Huckabee’s 25 percent.

The poll of 835 Republican voters who said they intend to go to the caucuses has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percent. The tigher screen of 418 voters has an error margin of plus-or-minus 5 percent. Both the Democratic and Republican polls were weighted for age and gender.


http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1218_89.aspx

[SA210]

Iowa: Edwards surges, Huckabee is slipping

Steven Thomma
McClatchy Newspapers
Dec. 30, 2007 12:00 AM


DES MOINES, Iowa - John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa's caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength as rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

At the same time, Mitt Romney has regained the lead among Iowa Republicans as Mike Huckabee has lost momentum and support, even among the evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago.

Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top Republican rivals here.

"On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit."

The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.

On the Republican side, Coker said, "Romney has rebounded, and the Huckabee bubble may have burst.

"Last time, Huckabee was getting all the good press and nobody had put him under any scrutiny. . . . Now he's under the spotlight, and he's started to wilt a little."

One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.

Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.

The second tier is particularly important in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don't make that threshold can support someone else.

As of now, that appears to help Edwards.

If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.

One in three Iowa Republicans say they could still change their minds.

No one knows that better than Huckabee, who surged into the lead three weeks ago and now has lost it just as quickly. Huckabee's support dropped 8 percentage points since the poll Dec. 3-6.

A major reason is that he's come under sharp criticism from rivals such as Romney, been blistered as a tax raiser in a $500,000 ad campaign aired by the anti-tax group Club For Growth, and faced new scrutiny by the media of his Arkansas record on such issues as pardons.

He still ranks top among Iowa Republicans who rank values and family issues their top concerns.

But while the ordained Baptist preacher still leads among the state's influential evangelical Christians, he's lost 8 points among them.

Romney, who had led in the state for months before dropping to second place, regained 7 points since early December.

Iowa Republicans gave him their highest favorable rating, and he ranked first among GOP voters looking for experience, leadership and the ability to win in November. He also led among voters who ranked immigration, taxes or terrorism their top concerns.

A key gain: He now has the support of 27 percent of the state's evangelical Christian Republicans, up sharply from 8 percent several weeks ago. Concerns about his Mormon faith appear to have ebbed.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1230IowaPoll1230.html

Iowa poll results


Among Democrats:


• Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24 percent.


• Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York has 23 percent.


• Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has 22 percent.


• Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent.


• Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent.


• Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent.


• Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.


• Undecided: 8 percent.

[JoeChalupa]

Looks like Holiday Huckabee is coming back down to earth and Edwards is coming on strong.

[Galileo]

Operation Discredit the Polls!

* LA Times/Bloomberg Poll says Ron Paul polling at 1% in Iowa (7th place)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/bloomberg_la_times_poll_dec_27.html

* RealClearPolitics Polling Average says Ron Paul is at 5.5% in Iowa (6th place)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

Time Magazine says McCain, Thompson, or Giuliani will get 3rd in Iowa (RP not mentioned)

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1698682,00.html

Hello, folks, this is Galileo.
The Iowa Caucus is Thursday night and Ron Paul is going to get at least third place, with probably 15% to 20%, or more, of the vote. These polls are all rigged and we know it.

Earlier, I advocated that Ron Paul issue press releases regarding biased polls and hire a full-time pollster.

A Rigged Poll Deconstructed
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/lindgren2.html
But now I have changed my mind. All Ron Paul needs to do is discredit the polls by getting lots of votes. Getting 15% to 20%, or more, will show that the "scientific" polls are off by 10% to 15%, or more.

When the results come in Thursday night, please email these poll links to the media and tell them to stop using these polls. They are not scientific. They are rigged!

Sincerely,

Galileo

PS - please note, the statistical margin of error in all these polls, for Ron Paul, is less than 1%. Please email me for a mathematical explanation if you'd like. The statistical margin of error is not the standard 3% to 4%. That means the error came from another source, and the source of error is a biased pollster!

[Extra Stout]

Polls in Iowa are not reliable, because the Iowa caucuses are not a typical vote. The polls have a completely incompatible model. The caucuses are public, and involve a great deal of horse trading. They are somewhat unpredictable. Whether Edwards or another candidate wins will involve in part the ability of their coalitions to persuade voting blocs to change their votes. That's why the "second choice" of a caucus-goer matters.

(That doesn't mean Ron Paul is going to get 20% of the vote, or that Iowa pollsters have some malevolent agenda to suppress libertarians. Such is the domain of conspiarcy theorists.)

[JoeChalupa]

Could a victory by Edwards in Iowa all but end the hopes of the Obama campaign? I don't think so but that is the word I'm hearing.

[xrayzebra]

Could a victory by Edwards in Iowa all but end the hopes of the Obama campaign? I don't think so but that is the word I'm hearing.

I don't think so either. The ambulance chaser may make
a showing but he wont last long.

[JoeChalupa]

I don't think so either. The ambulance chaser may make
a showing but he wont last long.

I still think Hillary has it but her pompous attitude rubs me the wrong way. Go Obama!!

[Mr. Peabody]

Could a victory by Edwards in Iowa all but end the hopes of the Obama campaign? I don't think so but that is the word I'm hearing.

I think if Edawards beats Obama in Iowa, but Obama still finishes ahead of Hillary (meaning Hillary is 3rd) the Obama campaign is still viable. If Obama finishes 3rd in Iowa, it's over.

[SA210]

I don't think so either. The ambulance chaser may make
a showing but he wont last long.
Let's revisit this again soon xray. :toast

[SA210]

Would it be at all possible that Richardson comes in 3rd and perhaps that leaves a leading candidate in 4th?

[Mr. Peabody]

Let's revisit this again soon xray. :toast

I like Edwards. I think he has a good story and his heart is in the right place. I read his book "Four Trials" and was really pulling for in the primary in '04 over Dean and Kerry. I was even planning in seeing him speak at St. Mary's here in San Antonio, but he dropped out of the primary the day before his scheduled rally.

That being said, I pray he doesn't win the nomination. He was eaten alive by the Republicans in '04. Do you remember the debate he had with Dick Cheney? People hate Dick Cheney and yet public opinion had him winning that debate. Edwards couldn't even carry North Carolina for the Democratic ticket. As much as I like the guy, I don't know if he can will the presidency as the Demo candidate.

I was also going to mention the baggage he carries into the race from making all of his money as a plaintiff's lawyer, but I think every Demo candidate brings plenty of baggage into the race (Obama - race and the Muslim issue, HRC -- too much to mention).

[Mr. Peabody]

Would it be at all possible that Richardson comes in 3rd and perhaps that leaves a leading candidate in 4th?

I don't think Richardson will beat out any of the top 3, but if he does it's over for the fourth place finisher (please be Hillary).

[Extra Stout]

I like Edwards. I think he has a good story and his heart is in the right place. I read his book "Four Trials" and was really pulling for in the primary in '04 over Dean and Kerry. I was even planning in seeing him speak at St. Mary's here in San Antonio, but he dropped out of the primary the day before his scheduled rally.

That being said, I pray he doesn't win the nomination. He was eaten alive by the Republicans in '04. Do you remember the debate he had with Dick Cheney? People hate Dick Cheney and yet public opinion had him winning that debate. Edwards couldn't even carry North Carolina for the Democratic ticket. As much as I like the guy, I don't know if he can will the presidency as the Demo candidate.

I was also going to mention the baggage he carries into the race from making all of his money as a plaintiff's lawyer, but I think every Demo candidate brings plenty of baggage into the race (Obama - race and the Muslim issue, HRC -- too much to mention).
Polls show Edwards doing better against Republicans than any other Democrat, and that may not be solely because of his white maleness.

[Mr. Peabody]

Polls show Edwards doing better against Republicans than any other Democrat, and that may not be solely because of his white maleness.

The latest Zogby poll has Edwards losing to Giuliani and McCain. It also has Obama beating every Republican candidate. But I do agree that Edwards would fare better than Hillary.

Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404)

[JoeChalupa]

I like Edwards. I think he has a good story and his heart is in the right place. I read his book "Four Trials" and was really pulling for in the primary in '04 over Dean and Kerry. I was even planning in seeing him speak at St. Mary's here in San Antonio, but he dropped out of the primary the day before his scheduled rally.

That being said, I pray he doesn't win the nomination. He was eaten alive by the Republicans in '04. Do you remember the debate he had with Dick Cheney? People hate Dick Cheney and yet public opinion had him winning that debate. Edwards couldn't even carry North Carolina for the Democratic ticket. As much as I like the guy, I don't know if he can will the presidency as the Demo candidate.

I was also going to mention the baggage he carries into the race from making all of his money as a plaintiff's lawyer, but I think every Demo candidate brings plenty of baggage into the race (Obama - race and the Muslim issue, HRC -- too much to mention).

Race and Muslim issue? Barack is a Christian and I feel America, at least those I speak to, have no race issue at all with Barack. The Muslim thing is a total non-issue unless you play into the rhetoric from the FAR right.

Barack beats I believe all Republican candidates on a one-on-one runoff.

[Extra Stout]

Race and Muslim issue? Barack is a Christian and I feel America, at least those I speak to, have no race issue at all with Barack. The Muslim thing is a total non-issue unless you play into the rhetoric from the FAR right.

Barack beats I believe all Republican candidates on a one-on-one runoff.
There are some folks out there who will claim they have no race problem with Obama, because it is not socially acceptable to have a race problem, but when they step into that ballot booth when nobody is looking, will vote for somebody else because of their race problem, yet then will tell the exit pollster they just voted for Obama.

[SA210]

That being said, I pray he doesn't win the nomination. He was eaten alive by the Republicans in '04. Do you remember the debate he had with Dick Cheney? People hate Dick Cheney and yet public opinion had him winning that debate. Edwards couldn't even carry North Carolina for the Democratic ticket. As much as I like the guy, I don't know if he can will the presidency as the Demo candidate.

I was also going to mention the baggage he carries into the race from making all of his money as a plaintiff's lawyer, but I think every Demo candidate brings plenty of baggage into the race (Obama - race and the Muslim issue, HRC -- too much to mention).
I would have to respectfully disagree that Edwards was eaten alive in 04. It was Kerry who was eaten alive. Edwards and Kerry had a very real disagreement on the way the swiftboating attacks were handled. Edwards pleaded with Kerry to fight back hard and he also argued with Kerry to not concede the election so quickly. John Edwards wanted to fight and Kerry didn't, he was too soft.

I personally believe that Edwards won that debate with Cheney. On what issue did Cheney win on? Nothing that I remember, other than the fact that Dick Cheney lied about never meeting Edwards, so that made Edwards look bad even though it was a flat out lie. Edwards wanted to fight against that kind of politics, but the Kerry camp didn't, so his hands were tied. Afterall it was Kerry who was going to be president, not Edwards. They disagreed the entire race.

Edwards voice will be heard now, and Edwards is a fighter.

I'd also like to point out that Edwards has shaped this Democratic race with his policies. He didn't wait for the media to tell us that his ideas were ok or not, he spoke out on what he believed, then Obama and Hillary followed in his footsteps. Edwards is the real leader in my opinion.

By the way, on the issue of Edwards not winning North Carolina, I read this recently and found it very interesting.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/12/27/104922/57/325/426817

Why "Edwards couldn't win NC in 2004" is a deceptive argument...




by BruinKid (http://bruinkid.dailykos.com/)
Thu Dec 27, 2007 at 08:31:13 AM PST

So one refrain I've seen bandied about in the last couple months has been that Edwards is a weak candidate because he couldn't even win his home state of North Carolina in 2004. Now, the primary rebuttal is that it was John Kerry's campaign, not Edwards'. But in looking at the numbers, I discovered something quite interesting.

Did you know that Bush got a higher percentage of the vote in 2004, when compared to 2000, in EVERY southern state... EXCEPT for North Carolina? In fact, Bush improved his percentage of the vote in 47 of our 50 states, and even in D.C. Yes, even in states that Bush lost by wide margins, he improved on his vote percentage in those states. He barely got 35% of the vote in New York in 2000, but got over 40% of the vote there in 2004. Think about that. Hell, Bush even improved in Massachusetts, John Kerry's home state. Think about that.

The full numbers after the fold....


BruinKid's diary (http://bruinkid.dailykos.com/) :: ::

Here are my sources for the 2000 (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2000&fips=0&f=1&off=0&elect=0) and 2004 (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2004&fips=0&f=0&off=0&elect=0) data. I've listed the percent of the vote Bush got in every single state (and D.C.) in 2000 and 2004, and the percent change going from 2000 to 2004 it represented.

2000 % 2004 % %Change
Alabama 56.5 62.5 +6.0
Alaska 58.6 61.1 +2.5
Arizona 51.0 54.9 +3.9
Arkansas 51.3 54.3 +3.0
California 41.7 44.4 +2.7
Colorado 50.8 51.7 +0.9
Connecticut 38.4 43.9 +5.5
Delaware 41.9 45.8 +3.9
D.C. 9.0 9.3 +0.3
Florida 48.8 52.1 +3.3
Georgia 54.7 58.0 +3.3
Hawaii 37.5 45.3 +7.8
Idaho 67.2 68.4 +1.2
Illinois 42.6 44.5 +1.9
Indiana 56.6 59.9 +3.3
Iowa 48.2 49.9 +1.7
Kansas 58.0 62.0 +4.0
Kentucky 56.5 59.6 +3.1
Louisiana 52.6 56.7 +4.1
Maine 44.0 44.6 +0.6
Maryland 40.2 42.9 +2.7
Massachusetts 32.5 36.8 +4.3
Michigan 46.1 47.8 +1.7
Minnesota 45.5 47.6 +2.1
Mississippi 57.6 59.4 +1.8
Missouri 50.4 53.3 +2.9
Montana 58.4 59.1 +0.7
Nebraska 62.2 65.9 +3.7
Nevada 49.5 50.5 +1.0
New Hampshire 48.1 48.9 +0.8
New Jersey 40.3 46.2 +5.9
New Mexico 47.8 49.8 +2.0
New York 35.2 40.1 +4.9
North Carolina 56.0 56.0 +0.0
North Dakota 60.7 62.9 +2.2
Ohio 50.0 50.8 +0.8
Oklahoma 60.3 65.6 +5.3
Oregon 46.5 47.2 +0.7
Pennsylvania 46.4 48.4 +2.0
Rhode Island 31.9 38.7 +6.8
South Carolina 56.8 58.0 +1.2
South Dakota 60.3 59.9 -0.4
Tennessee 51.1 56.8 +5.7
Texas 59.3 61.1 +1.8
Utah 66.8 71.5 +4.7
Vermont 40.7 38.8 -1.9
Virginia 52.5 53.7 +1.2
Washington 44.6 45.6 +1.0
West Virginia 51.9 56.1 +4.2
Wisconsin 47.6 49.3 +1.7
Wyoming 67.8 68.9 +1.1


Huzzah to Vermont and South Dakota for breaking the national trend.

While Gore received 43.2% of the vote in 2000 in North Carolina, Kerry got 43.6%. Yeah, it's not much of an increase, but considering that Bush improved in almost every other state in the country, it speaks volumes that North Carolina didn't go the same way.

Think about this, folks. In 48 states and D.C., Bush did better in 2004 than he did in 2000. Think about that. The ONLY states where that did not occur were South Dakota, Vermont, and North Carolina. I'd have to say that that was because of John Edwards. Notice that in Tennessee, without native Al Gore, their percent of the Bush vote jumped up from 51.1% to 56.8%.

And even with native John Kerry, Massachusetts gave Bush 36.8% of the vote in 2004, when they only gave him 32.5% in 2000. How the hell could Bush improve by 4.3% in Kerry's home state?? Given that, did you seriously expect John Edwards, as the Vice Presidential nominee, to FLIP North Carolina for the Democrats??

When you see the chart like this, it's amazing to think we picked off ANY state that went for Bush in 2000. And the only one was New Hampshire. Gore only got 46.8% of the vote there to Bush's 48.1%, but Ralph Nader pulled in 3.9% of the vote. In 2004, Kerry squeaked by with 50.2% of the vote. But still, Bush got 48.9% of the vote that time around. In Iowa, both parties did better in 2004 than they did in 2000 percentage-wise, but Bush still flipped that state red.


So the argument that we should brush off Edwards because he couldn't WIN North Carolina for John Kerry and the Democrats in 2004 is simply disregarding what actually happened across the entire country in that election (SD & VT excepted). To ask the Vice Presidential nominee to flip a state for the Democrats that Bill Clinton couldn't even win either time, and that hadn't voted Democratic since 1976 (when California was still a "red" state), is asking the impossible, IMO. Of course, come 2008, the latest polling shows Edwards could turn North Carolina blue (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/12/18/17227/254) if he's at the top of the ticket. Hillary and Obama would still keep North Carolina in the red column in that poll.

Now, there may be some valid arguments as to why John Edwards should not be our nominee. But bringing up his "failure" to win North Carolina in 2004 is a very faulty and misleading argument that ignores a multitude of factors in that 2004 election. I hope I don't have to read any more of this "Edwards couldn't win North Carolina in 2004" strawman being bandied about.

[Mr. Peabody]

Race and Muslim issue? Barack is a Christian and I feel America, at least those I speak to, have no race issue at all with Barack. The Muslim thing is a total non-issue unless you play into the rhetoric from the FAR right.

Barack beats I believe all Republican candidates on a one-on-one runoff.

I know Obama is a Christian. Heck, I've donated to his campaign. You have to admit though, if he becomes the Democratic nominee the right will be making allusions to a Muslim upbringing (see here (http://www.danielpipes.org/article/5286)). Also, as ES points out, race will be a factor regardless of what people say.

I do agree that he will beat all of the Republican candidates and earlier linked to the recent Zogby poll evidencing such.

[JoeChalupa]

I know Obama is a Christian. Heck, I've donated to his campaign. You have to admit though, if he becomes the Democratic nominee the right will be making allusions to a Muslim upbringing (see here (http://www.danielpipes.org/article/5286)). Also, as ES points out, race will be a factor regardless of what people say.

I do agree that he will beat all of the Republican candidates and earlier linked to the recent Zogby poll evidencing such.


I've contributed to his campaign as well. I just don't think race will be as big as a factor as some may think. That may be different amongst conservatives though.

[Mr. Peabody]

According to the final Des Moines Register poll, Obama is well ahead of both Clinton and Edwards. The Des Moines Register poll accurately predicted the results of the 2004 primaries, so this is a good sign for Obama.


New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton

By THOMAS BEAUMONT • REGISTER STAFF WRITER • Copyright 2007, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company • December 31, 2007

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.

Huckabee, Obama maintain leads
Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

[xrayzebra]

From all I have heard from ALL the dimm-o-craps running, they
all say the same thing. You could slip a sheet of paper between
the issues they bring up. Not one of them has addressed the
illegal alien issue or defense of the United States. All they want
to talk about is "health" issues. Health wont matter if we cant
defend our borders or country.

The whole damn bunch of them are useless as tits on a boar
hog.

[Nbadan]

Looks like Clinton is looking to get beat in Iowa....victory in defeat...

By RICK KLEIN


As the presidential candidates engage in furious pre-caucus spin, one of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's most prominent Iowa supporters said Wednesday that she's already accomplished what she needs to in Iowa, and can declare success even if she finishes in third place.

Former governor Tom Vilsack, D-Iowa, told ABC News that Clinton has already accomplished what she came to Iowa to do: Show that she can appeal to a wide swath of Democrats.

"She has done what she needed to do here," Vilsack said shortly before a Clinton campaign event in Indianola. "When she started the process she was way behind -- it's now by all standards a competitive race."

Asked if the order of finish matters, Vilsack deflected the question.

"She absolutely had to be competitive and she's accomplished that," he said. "Obviously everybody's interested in winning, and I think we're going to do well. It's tight. There's no question about that."

Vilsack's comments stand in marked contrast to optimistic predictions he has made in the past, including in May, when he endorsed Clinton's candidacy.

In May, Vilsack was quoted in the Washington Post, saying, "There's no question she's playing in Iowa and playing to win,' said former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, who dropped out of the presidential race earlier this year and endorsed Clinton."

Link (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=4076176&page=1)

Rumor on the streets has it that if Vilsack can deliver Iowa to the Clinton camp, he goes on the short list of possible V.P. candidates...

[Nbadan]

AT: How an internal Obama memo helps the staff


One of the invisible challenges of running a national campaign is keeping up the spirits of the staff, many of them unpaid or hardly-paid, during the inevitable ups and downs when the only real measure of their long daily labors can't come until the votes at the end. The Times' eagle-eyed Robin Abcarian, in her wanderings around the well-traveled state of Iowa in recent days, obtained a copy of an Obama campaign memo from state director Paul Tewes to precinct captains. He gave them a website address where the team members could hear a taped message of appreciation from the candidate himself.

Then, as at least anecdotal evidence of their efforts' success, Tewes provided a long list of Iowa towns where the competing Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton campaigns had crossed, with audience counts for each. Now, remember this means some Obama supporter had to attend each event to count and the other campaigns were likely doing the same. In his TV interviews, Obama also cites the crowds as evidence of his momentum to back up encouraging numbers from a new Des Moines Register poll. Here are some sample crowd comparisons from the memo:

Mason City, IA 12/26: Senator Obama -- 650
12/28: Senator Clinton -- 400
12/15: Senator Edwards -- 300

Clinton, IA 12/28: Senator Obama -- 365
12/28: Senator Edwards -- 100
12/29: Senator Clinton -- 200

Carroll, IA 12/26: Senator Obama -- 600
12/27: Senator Clinton -- 400

Webster City, IA 12/26: Senator Obama -- 330
12/28: Senator Clinton -- 200

Davenport, IA (simultaneous events) 12/28: Senator Obama - 950
12/28: Senator Edwards - 225

Of course, none of this matters if many of these folks don't actually go to caucus meetings Thursday evening. But that'll take more than a memo.

LA Times (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/countingsheep.html)

[Steve Irwin]

news of the day: politics are for fags.

[AFBlue]

I know Obama is a Christian. Heck, I've donated to his campaign. You have to admit though, if he becomes the Democratic nominee the right will be making allusions to a Muslim upbringing (see here (http://www.danielpipes.org/article/5286)). Also, as ES points out, race will be a factor regardless of what people say.

I do agree that he will beat all of the Republican candidates and earlier linked to the recent Zogby poll evidencing such.

My thoughts on Obama as a race/religion issue....

I've seen the e-mail chain letter that says he's Muslim. It says he swore on the Koran when he took office. It says that his father was a radical muslim and that his mother was a hardcore atheist.

I'm glad I researched to find out that the e-mail was incredibly misinformed, but I still run into people that reference the e-mail and I have to correct them on it.

I've also run into people with "black friends" that swear their "friends" wouldn't vote for Obama because they don't think he has a realistic chance of winning the nomination. Whether that bears out as truth is obviously yet to be seen, but it's obviously a concern.

Let's just put it this way....people ARE that stupid to make both an issue.

[Nbadan]

Apparently, the e-mails didn't make it to Iowa....

Source: Des Moines Register


Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent

Link (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044)

[Nbadan]

DES MOINES, Iowa — As Thursday’s caucuses approach, political insiders say the outcome is more in doubt than perhaps ever before. That’s partly because neither party has a front-runner — and also because Iowa polling has provided as many questions as answers.

Those uncertainties have persisted into the campaign’s final hours in the wake of Monday’s release of the Des Moines Register poll.

The poll remains the most respected of Iowa surveys, in part because it accurately predicted the 2004 result.

But its conclusion that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) hold clear leads not only contrasted with the narrow margins of other polls but also was based on two stunning findings: record high turnout by independents and a strong reliance on first-time caucus-goers.
Obama’s internal polling also shows him ahead, according to a senior adviser in the campaign, but Clinton’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, challenged the Register’s results outright.

Most alarming, in the view of Hillary Rodham Clinton's camp, is the Register’s finding that four in 10 Democratic caucus-goers will be independents.

The New York senator still leads among Democrats and would win, Penn pointed out, if the 2008 independent turnout comes in at a level closer to that of previous caucuses.

In 2004, only 19 percent of Democratic caucus-goers were independents. In 2000, the figure was 17 percent, according to a CNN entrance poll. If the Register is right, 2008 would mark an historic doubling of independents participating in the Democratic contest.

The Register’s independent expectation is also roughly 10 percent larger than that of other polls, like those run by John Zogby for Reuters. Zogby’s poll, released Wednesday, finds a statistical tie between Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as well as among the three leading Democrats.

But the Register poll remains the gold standard in terms of its accuracy.

Politico (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7681.html)

[MannyIsGod]

If republicans get the same type of independent turnout, you bet your ass Ron Paul will go over 10%. Anything over 10% would be a good showing for me. Anything over 13% would be an extremely good showing. 15%? Watch the fuck out America.

[smeagol]

news of the day: politics are for fags.
News of the day: you are a waste of space.