"Setting Sun" Game Prediction Thread

[Rummpd]

This one deserves 2 day buildup. Spurs lock them down as Parker has another great night = he is feeling it.

Spurs 99

Suns 86

Simply put, Suns about to get reality check. I for one am not convinced yet that this team is not another Mavs who started so fast a couple of years ago, and despite Suns supposed "best starting 5" in league Spurs match up very well - more height, equal if not more speed, much better defense and most importantly, a real bench.

If Spurs motivated from get go (as they should be) this one will be no closer than Wolves.



MadDoc

[fonzy16]

Spurs 96 - Suns 81

[Supergirl]

I think this will be a tough match up for Parker - Nash is as quick as he is. But Parker plays better D. I think Bowen will spend some time on Nash, too, but he's got to contain Marion, as well. Amare and Duncan will neutralize each other, much in the same way that KG and Duncan do.

It will come down to the Spurs bench - because that's what they have that the Suns don't. Spurs win, if they get good nights from Devin Brown, Robert Horry, Malik Rose, and Brent Barry. In that order. Devin is the key, IMHO, because he has the athleticism to run with the Suns. Horry is key because he can shut anyone on the Suns bench down.

[Jimcs50]

This will be the first chance we get to see if SA can play with this juggernaut from the West. Even though SA is at home, I can see Phoenix running the Spurs out of the gym if they try to run with them. I think Pop needs to remind the Spurs that they are not capable of this and they need to stick to playing D and only running when they have a chance.

[Jimcs50]

Parker is playing great as of late so Nash will have to expend a lot of energy staying with him, that is s plus. As Nash goes, so goes the Suns...key matchup here.

[tlongII]

Suns 103
Spurs 89

This won't be much of a contest.

[smeagol]

Suns 103
Spurs 89

This won't be much of a contest.
Why is it that trolls always predict Spurs losses on game prediction threads?

[Ginofan]

Well I said we would lose to the Twolves and we won so hopefully that strategy will work again...

Spurs 103
Suns 107

[Rick Von Braun]

This will be the first chance we get to see if SA can play with this juggernaut from the West. Even though SA is at home, I can see Phoenix running the Spurs out of the gym if they try to run with them. I think Pop needs to remind the Spurs that they are not capable of this and they need to stick to playing D and only running when they have a chance.Jim, I agree with you in general. Having said that, I think the Spurs are indeed capable of running with anyone (remember WCF 2003). TP, Manu, Brown, Bowen and BBarry can run with Phoenix .

A good tactic might be to run hard at every opportunity they have, and once the Suns' starters are tired, finish them up with our bench. Easier said than done though. http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smielephant.gif

[CosmicCowboy]

Bowen will have his hands full with the Matrix and Parker/Nash is a tough one too...Amare will be muscling Tim in the paint and has the athleticism to give him problems with blocked/altered shots...The key to this game may be how our guard rotation checks Q on the perimeter...not exactly our best feature...Q has had a hot hand recently shooting 45% from three point land the last few games and he is not afraid to shoot when he is hot with 7+ attempts per game...

Phoenix is a damn good team...if Spurs bring their A game the W could come down to who shoots better from the line...*gulp*

[Hook Dem]

96-90 Spurs. Suns are for real but Spurs will rise to the challenge. We do, after all, have the best defense in the league and can be very explosive when all the stars line up right. It will be a very entertaining game and live up to all expectations. Whoever loses will still be up there with the elite.

[Rick Von Braun]

Why is it that trolls always predict Spurs losses on game prediction threads?tlong is no troll. He's been with us long enough, and his negativity toward the Spurs is expected (and almost encouraged).

On the positive side, he has ocassionally brought a take or two, and you have to consider his jocular bets with Jim. http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smidrunk.gif

[boutons]

Sun night vs TOR, Suns:

... had 4 starters hit 13 of 39 3's.

... had 4 players with 18+ points (poor JJ had a off game).

... PHX starters played 38+ minutes, and didn't look tired at the end.

Nobody has been able stop Amare.

PHX doesn't seem to be slumping! :) :(

=====================

If the Suns are on their game, the Spurs will need a huge defensive effort to hold PHX, esp on the perimter and on Amare on the inside.

Spurs' Keys to game:

Defense:

As always for the Spurs, all defense, all 48 minutes, transition, perimeter, paint, since PHX can score in all 3 games. I doubt the Spurs can win if they allow PHX to get 100 points.

Offense:

And since the Spurs won't hold the Suns offense completely, the Spurs will need to have a great offensive game (Suns allow a mediocre 98 PPG).

ie, if the Spurs can hold PHX to mid-90's (15 pts below PHX PPG), then Spurs still have to score, at a minimum, the Spurs' avg PPG of 96.

PHX has never scored under 90 PPG.

PHX has scored under 100 PPG only 4 times (twice on the road), and still won them 3-1.

Rebounding:

PHX are -2 in RBG (44 - 46 = 92), while Spurs are +3.7 (43 - 39 = 82), so Spurs have to RB like madmen to cut-down on PHX possessions.

Note that PHX games total 10 more RBG than Spurs' games, indicating a faster paced game.

The Suns' games avg 174 shots/game while Spurs games avg 154 shots/game. Can/should the Spurs, who are running more effectively this season vs last, run with the Suns?

Should the Spurs try to slow the game down? The danger in Spurs leading a lower-scoring game, PHX stays close, then hit a few 3s, and FTs, in crunch time to win.

Or, the Spurs trail in a lower-scoring game, and foul PHX in crunch time, with PHX's starters shooting FT's at about 80%. Spurs lose because PHX FT's keep them in front, just like the second SEA loss.

In team play,

PHX 23 AST vs opp 21
Spurs 23 AST vs opp 15 (Spurs good team play and a better, disruptive defense)

PHX .57 AST/goal
Spus .63 AST/goal (PHX are primarily shooters who AST well, Spurs are better playmakers)

The melodrama headline: NBA best defense in PPG (Spurs 85) vs the NBA best offense in PPG (PHX 109), a 24 PPG difference! Something's gotta give!

As a measurement during the game, remember that PHX averages 27 PPQ, while Spurs allow 21 PPQ.

The sub-plot: PHX 1st in 3PT %age vs the Spurs 25th 3PT %age allowed. (In 2nd SEA loss @SBC, Spurs defense allowed hot-shooting SEA to hit the SEA's avg 3-game and lost.)

As always, yawn, the Spurs must win with defense.

A close game could come down to coaching as about playing. Excellent Pop vs excellent Mike. Mike has it easier: when his starters playing 38+ MPG in big/close games, he doesn't bother with trying to play matchups! :)

iow, with PHX starter's playing much more minutes than Spurs' starters, can the Spurs' bench hold the PHX starters?

=====================================

When I watch PHX games, I note that PHX offense, not really having "bigs" or a center, keeps their players widely dispersed, with nobody hanging around the paint vs the Spurs who tend to keep their offensive paint quite clogged up with the C and PF in close constantly, plus the backcourt players running through the paint. open-paint vs closed-paint. PHX play a more atheltic "small ball" than the Spurs.

Forget about it being "only December". Having lost 2 games to the other WC contender Sonics, Spurs' confidence badly needs a win over PHX to avoid being 0-3 vs WC contenders, and ending 04 with 0-2 in big games @SBC.

PHX as the NBA best road team (11-1) and best overall record, PHX will probably be favored to win @SBC. Spurs have to play with a "Win or Go Home" (defensive) intensity.

Spurs 98
Suns 96

[Rummpd]

Spurs' confidence badly needs a win over PHX to avoid being 0-3 vs WC contenders, and ending 04 with 0-2 in big games @SBC.

BS big wins by Spurs over Dallas, Kings, Wolves who all remain contenders. How often did Spurs get off to say a 15 and 10 start then win 85% of rest of way?

Too early for "confidence" concerns but if Tim healthy Spurs will roll through the Suns = Mark it DOWN.

MadDoc

[Rummpd]

Final statement:

Phoenix is a damn good team...if Spurs bring their A game the W could come down to who shoots better from the line...*gulp*

If Spurs bring true A game with their crushing defense throughout will win by 20 points.

Predicting they bring their A - game and still win easily per original post.

MadDoc

[boutons]

"Dallas, Kings, Wolves"

Spurs beat Kings @SBC when SAC was totally lost at start of season, no cigar. SAC are doing better, but they are still just SAC, with an empty trophy case.

DAL and MIN are clearly DISTANT second placers in their own divisions.

The ONLY Spurs opponents with contender credibility, so far, are division distant leaders, PHX and SEA.

[ladiesman]

My prediction is that Rasho won't play much....

[Slomo]

My prediction is that Rasho won't play much.... Thank you!
After all these intelligent insightful posts by fans who actually can tell the difference between basketball and grass hockey your take is so refreshing!


http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smirolleyes.gif

[boutons]

"intelligent insightful posts"

If Rasho doesn't play much, it will because even at his un-athletic best, he's easily out-played inside by the much more athletic, more aggressive, quicker Shawn and Amare.

I agree that Rasho will have to play out-of-his-head to get many minutes. His PHX matchups aren't encouraging.

Fun to imagine: Tim and a-Rasho-with-confidence duo over the next 6 years.

Rasho needs to take an anger MIS-management course. :)

[Slomo]

"intelligent insightful posts"

If Rasho doesn't play much, it will because even at his un-athletic best, he's easily out-played inside by the much more atheltic, more aggressive, quicker Shawn and Amare.

I agree that Rasho will have to play out-of-his-head to get many minutes. His matchups aren't encouraging.
I don't have a problem with you opinion, it's the Sequesque posts that are really annoying. And while I do hope that Rasho "plays out-of-his-head" I do agree he has a problem with athletic centres.

[Mark in Austin]

Couple of predictions:

Unless he's clearly aggressive from the start, look for Rasho to play about 15 minutes. Horry and Malik will get minutes to match up with the more athletic / mobile Marion and Stoudamire.

Stoudamire's lack of a go to move should be exploited when the Spurs manage to dig in on D and slow the tempo.

The Suns avarage 13.3 more ppg than SA, but only have .6 more APG than the Spurs. The Spurs also get to the line 2 more times a game than Phx. That tells me they're shooting a lot of jump shots. Our traditional "funnel the drivers to the baseline" defensive scheme won't be as effective. SA has struggled before with jump shooting teams - man on man defense will be key. That means no double teaming on D. For large chunks of the game, I think you could see Pop use a line up of:

Parker on Nash
Ginobili on Johnson
Brown on Richardson
Bowen on Marion
Duncan on Stoudamire

This lineup is a better defensive match-up than anything the Suns have played against so far.

Keys to the game:

3pt defense. Phx shoots .387 from behind the arc as a team. They take and make more than any other team. Joe Johnson is shooting .558 on the road from downtown.

Staying home on their shooters. No daylight on jumpshots.

Parker setting the right offensive tempo. Knowing when to run, and when to slow it down.

[tlongII]

This may be counter to what many people believe, but Quentin Richardson is the key to the Suns. If you can shut him down you can beat them. If I were Pop I would put Bowen on Q-Rich.

[Mark in Austin]

In the Suns three losses:

Marion shot 41.4% from the field (nearly seven percentage points below his season avg. of 48.1%) overall and 0% (0-9) from downtown (thirty six percentage points below his season avg. of 36.8%)

Richardson shot 31.7% from the field (slightly over 7 percentage points below his season avg of 38.9%) overall and 31.8% (7-22) from downtown (exactly 3 percentage points below his season avg of 34.8%)

in the losses both players had practically the same relative drops in overall FG%, but Marion clearly sucked ass from behind the arc, whereas Richardson dropped by three percentage points.

tlong, based on the above, I'd argue that shutting down Marion in general, and especially from long range should be the higher priority for the Spurs. He's a higher percentage shooter that Richardson, and therefore much more dangerous.

[LakerGod]

The Suns will spank the Spurs

Suns 123
Spurs 81

[CosmicCowboy]

In the Suns three losses:

Marion shot 41.4% from the field (nearly seven percentage points below his season avg. of 48.1%) overall and 0% (0-9) from downtown (thirty six percentage points below his season avg. of 36.8%)

Richardson shot 31.7% from the field (slightly over 7 percentage points below his season avg of 38.9%) overall and 31.8% (7-22) from downtown (exactly 3 percentage points below his season avg of 34.8%)

in the losses both players had practically the same relative drops in overall FG%, but Marion clearly sucked ass from behind the arc, whereas Richardson dropped by three percentage points.

tlong, based on the above, I'd argue that shutting down Marion in general, and especially from long range should be the higher priority for the Spurs. He's a higher percentage shooter that Richardson, and therefore much more dangerous.


MIA...as I noted in a previous post Q has settled into his new team and is playing his best ball of the year..has been tearing it up outside recently...he has hit 11 of 25 in the last 3 games...I agree with TLong that Spurs perimeter rotations on Q will be critical tonight and could be the make/break issue in the game...

[GrandeDavid]

Spurs 104
Suns 96

Spursgal, Amare Stoudamire is not in the same class of Tim Duncan, although he is a very nice young player and is really shooting the lights out this first half of the season. So I don't think Duncan will get neutralized. That's going a bit too far. Now, if Duncan's thumb is sore or if he catches a virus or for some odd reason gets struck by bad luck, all of which very well could happen, then neutralization could happen. However, I certainly wouldn't predict it. I think Duncan will have his way on both ends of the floor as there will be no surprises tomorrow night. The Spurs and Duncan all know very well how strongly Phoenix has started the season.

[Kori Ellis]

This may be counter to what many people believe, but Quentin Richardson is the key to the Suns. If you can shut him down you can beat them. If I were Pop I would put Bowen on Q-Rich.

Therein lies the dilemma. The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

[Experiment2100]

Therein lies the dilemma. The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

That is another dilema in itself. Should the Spurs go small? Pheonix has suckered it's opponents into playing their type of game, that is why they are so successful. I think that the Spurs should stay big, after Amare their tallest starter is 6'7". If they get a good game from either Rasho/Horry/Rose. They may force pheonix to put in one of their crappy bigs. Thus forcing Pheonix into playing Spurs ball.

[Mark in Austin]

CC, you're absolutely correct that "Q has settled into his new team and is playing his best ball of the year..has been tearing it up outside recently...".

However, you are making a mistake by not comparing those numbers to Marion's over the same period. Using the three game span you reference (doesn't include the most recent game against Toronto) for Richardson's 44% (11-25) performance; Marion shot 52.9% (9-17)from downtown, and outscored Richardson 25.6 ppg to 18.3 ppg.

Taking a larger sample, over the last five games, Richardson is shooting 40% from behind the arc (18-45), but Marion is shooting 51.9% from behind the arc (14-27). Marion averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals, was more efficient with his shots, and was a better free throw shooter than Richardson over this span.

Overall in December, Richardson is shooting 42.5% overall and 41.4% from behind the arc. In that same month, Marion is shooting 50.2% overall and 42.6% from behind the arc. Marion is scoring more, and doing it more efficiently.

No doubt Richardson is finding his groove, and really turning into an offensive force, but I think it would be easier to deal with a big game from Richardson than a big game from Marion. Richardson might heat up and start shooting lights out, but it seems like when Marion heats up, other things start happening for the Suns. He starts finding every loose ball, offensive rebounds become second chance points with more frequency, etc.

I'd rather Richardson go off for 25 or 30 points than have Marion hit for 25 or 30 on a higher percentage, pull in 15 rebounds, and go 3-6 from downtown. Bowen has historically been pretty effective on Marion, so I would stick with what has worked there. Devin can D-up on Richardson almost as well as Bowen can.

Bottom line: by any measure, as hot a Richardson has been, Marion has been hotter.



edit - added more from new thread responses


The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

Nice to see somebody else would match up the same way I proposed to. :fro

[ladiesman]

Thank you!
After all these intelligent insightful posts by fans who actually can tell the difference between basketball and grass hockey your take is so refreshing!


http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smirolleyes.gif

What is wrong with my prediction? The suns are a very athletic team, and Rasho seems to have problems with those types of teams. I will not go as far as Sequ has gone by saying the Spurs having a vagina :princess in the middle, NOT YET anyways.....

:fro

[tlongII]

CC, you're absolutely correct that "Q has settled into his new team and is playing his best ball of the year..has been tearing it up outside recently...".

However, you are making a mistake by not comparing those numbers to Marion's over the same period. Using the three game span you reference (doesn't include the most recent game against Toronto) for Richardson's 44% (11-25) performance; Marion shot 52.9% (9-17)from downtown, and outscored Richardson 25.6 ppg to 18.3 ppg.

Taking a larger sample, over the last five games, Richardson is shooting 40% from behind the arc (18-45), but Marion is shooting 51.9% from behind the arc (14-27). Marion averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals, was more efficient with his shots, and was a better free throw shooter than Richardson over this span.

Overall in December, Richardson is shooting 42.5% overall and 41.4% from behind the arc. In that same month, Marion is shooting 50.2% overall and 42.6% from behind the arc. Marion is scoring more, and doing it more efficiently.

No doubt Richardson is finding his groove, and really turning into an offensive force, but I think it would be easier to deal with a big game from Richardson than a big game from Marion. Richardson might heat up and start shooting lights out, but it seems like when Marion heats up, other things start happening for the Suns. He starts finding every loose ball, offensive rebounds become second chance points with more frequency, etc.

I'd rather Richardson go off for 25 or 30 points than have Marion hit for 25 or 30 on a higher percentage, pull in 15 rebounds, and go 3-6 from downtown. Bowen has historically been pretty effective on Marion, so I would stick with what has worked there. Devin can D-up on Richardson almost as well as Bowen can.

Bottom line: by any measure, as hot a Richardson has been, Marion has been hotter.



edit - added more from new thread responses



Nice to see somebody else would match up the same way I proposed to. :fro

The problem with your strategy is that closing out on Marion's perimeter game does not alter the Suns' strategy very much. Marion is a terrific offensive rebounder and the primary objective should be to keep him outside. Richardson has a greater volume of shots from the perimeter and therefore the Spurs should make the defense against him on the perimeter a priority. I also don't believe that Devin Brown can match up with Q-Rich although Bowen probably can.

[Mark in Austin]

It's not so much simply closing out as it is having Bowen in his face constantly. No open perimeter shots, no open cuts to the lane wit the ball or to come in for an offensive rebound. The primary objective on Marion should be to keep him out of his comfort zone in all aspects of the game. The best defender the Spurs have with the savvy to do this is Bowen.

Say what you will, I'm more concerned with the player with the more efficient offensive game than the "volume shooter".

[polandprzem]

Should we go small or big?

I think we will know what works in the game , during the game.
I would start with starting 5 then check in what Robert Horry shape is. Try go small with Devin at SF.
hard to predict. Go big slow down Suns.

transition defense the key to victory.
The worst thing will be to play static ball. Motion offense must be perfect. Limit the turnovers, crash the boards.

[gophergeorge]

If we don't shoot better than 75% from the charity stripe against the Suns.... We lose.

[ChumpDumper]

If the Spurs can control the pace and get one of their starters in foul trouble....

Easier said than done.

Pop was pretty slow to react to Doc's small ball, and it was apparent that the players hadn't practiced it much because they had no idea how to rotate on D and the offensive spacing was often pretty crappy. One would hope they will go over it before the Suns game in case plan A doesn't work.

[Matrix]

I think it will be a lot like the Sea v Phx, Sac v Phx and Min v Phx, all close games, nail bitters and flat out entertaining. It should be fun.

[Sportcamper]

The Suns are the only team in the league with two players, Steve Nash (15.7 ppg, 11.1 apg) and Shawn Marion (20.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg) averaging a double-double... Teammate Amare Stoudemire just misses at 25.3 points and 8.8 rebounds...

Still the Lakers have given them two tough games...The Suns barely getting the win...

Spurs-102... Suns-95

I have not picked one all year...I am due I tell ya! :lol

[milkyway21]

the Spurs will win this game.
Reason: Duncan

[ShoogarBear]

tlong is no troll.

More like an orc.

[Kori Ellis]

Suns 105
Spurs 101

[Sense]

This will be a tough game, believe it. The suns are very fast, and we struggle when trying to keep up. But overall I think our defense will fail, however we will win.

102-97