Boston has better odds than SA to win it all

[Jimcs50]

Interesting stats





http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

[Jimcs50]

Interesting that Dallas has only a 0.5% chance of winning division.

[timvp]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=82866

[ChumpDumper]

Might as well call it a season then. He did predict Manu's decline after all.

[Ariel]

Spurs with a 31.4% chance of getting to the finals, and a 9.0% chance of winning it? WTF? so they have a 71.3% chance of losing to whomever comes out of the East? :lol

Right... yeah, those stats sure sound telling... :lol

[SouthernFried]

Detroit has a higher chance of Being Champions ( 10% ) than the Spurs ( 9%). While the Celtics have almost a 60% chance.

Something wrong with these numbers...I mean, really.

[Russ]

Boston has better odds than SA to win it all.
As do the Pistons. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

[jay014]

60% to 9% of winning it all. damn, he's got some good shit!

[bdictjames]

I wonder what kind of program Hollinger has to predict all these stuff.

[Kori Ellis]

Vegas Odds

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Mavericks 6-1

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Phoenix Suns 7-2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Antonio Spurs 3-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Cavaliers 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Pistons 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Rockets 25-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bulls 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Heat 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Nuggets 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Jazz 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden State Warriors 40-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Wizards 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Clippers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey Nets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Lakers 35-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Orlando Magic 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Sonics 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland Blazers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Hornets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Bucks 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Charlotte BobCats 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Hawks 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota T-Wolves 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Knicks 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sacramento Kings 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana Pacers 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia 76ers 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Celtics 2-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis Grizzlies 500-1

[K-State Spur]

Now, just think if these rankings actually did determine the champion. Then we would have...THE BCS.

[dbreiden83080]

The East is just so damn BAD it is disgusting. We have to wait and see the Celts play the great Powers in the WEST to really know how good they are because as usual there is never a serious 2nd threat in the EAST. Half the time there is not even a first threat.

[Russ]

Vegas Odds

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Mavericks 6-1

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Phoenix Suns 7-2

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San Antonio Spurs 3-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Cavaliers 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Pistons 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Rockets 25-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bulls 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Heat 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Nuggets 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Jazz 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden State Warriors 40-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Wizards 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Clippers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey Nets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Lakers 35-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Orlando Magic 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Sonics 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland Blazers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Hornets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Bucks 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Charlotte BobCats 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Hawks 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota T-Wolves 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Knicks 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sacramento Kings 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana Pacers 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia 76ers 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Celtics 2-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis Grizzlies 500-1
I'll go with Vegas. Otherwise I'd have to believe that Boston has a 180 times greater chance of winning the title than the Mavs. :downspin: :downspin:

[Ariel]

Vegas Odds

Boston Celtics 2-1
:wtf

And some people bet on them at those odds?

Seriously?

:frying:

[Jimcs50]

Vegas Odds

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Mavericks 6-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Phoenix Suns 7-2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Antonio Spurs 3-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Cavaliers 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Pistons 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Rockets 25-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bulls 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Heat 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Nuggets 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Jazz 22-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden State Warriors 40-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Wizards 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Clippers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey Nets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Lakers 35-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Orlando Magic 12-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Sonics 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland Blazers 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Hornets 50-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Bucks 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Charlotte BobCats 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Hawks 60-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota T-Wolves 1000-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Knicks 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sacramento Kings 500-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana Pacers 100-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia 76ers 300-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Celtics 2-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis Grizzlies 500-1


These odds are more in line with reality.

I guess, Hollinger's calculation involves it being a lot harder to get out of the West than the East. But given the 30% chance to win the West, you would think that their odds to win it all would be at least 20%, since they would be a 2-1 fav to beat the Eastern rep.

[Jimcs50]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=82866

timvp, if you want people to notice your threads, you have to put an attention grabbing title to the thread, like mine. Everyone that sees mine, gets all pissed off and they have to open it.

:lol

[Ariel]

I guess, Hollinger's calculation involves it being a lot harder to get out of the West than the East. But given the 30% chance to win the West, you would think that their odds to win it all would be at least 20%, since they would be a 2-1 fav to beat the Eastern rep.
Nope. See:

Boston: finalist: 70.4% - champions: 59.6% => 84.66% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
Detroit: finalist: 15.9% - champions: 10.2% => 64.15% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
Orlando: finalist: 11.6% - champions: 6.7% => 57.76 chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
Indiana: finalist: 0.2% - champions: 0.1% => 50% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
San Antonio: finalist: 31.4% - champions: 9.0% => 28.66% chance of beating the Eastern finalist, provided they get there.
Dallas: finalist: 2.9% - champions: 0.3% => 10.34% chance of beating the Eastern finalist, provided they get there.

:frying:

[Mr. Body]

When was the last time a team visiting the Finals for the first time won the Championship? When was the FIRST time it ever happened?

Normally you have to take your scrapes at the Conference Finals or so before you learn how to win it all. Boston certainly hasn't done it; in fact, of the big three, only Pierce has had any real success in the playoffs and that was a while ago in a shoddy Eastern Conference possibly worse than it is now.

It's really hard to believe that the Spurs, making the Finals, would lose to any team from the East with the exception of possibly Detroit, although I don't see it. Boston could beat San Antonio, conceivably, but their chances would be far, far better against Phoenix, Utah, or even Dallas.

[romad_20]

When was the last time a team visiting the Finals for the first time won the Championship? When was the FIRST time it ever happened?

Normally you have to take your scrapes at the Conference Finals or so before you learn how to win it all. Boston certainly hasn't done it; in fact, of the big three, only Pierce has had any real success in the playoffs and that was a while ago in a shoddy Eastern Conference possibly worse than it is now.

It's really hard to believe that the Spurs, making the Finals, would lose to any team from the East with the exception of possibly Detroit, although I don't see it. Boston could beat San Antonio, conceivably, but their chances would be far, far better against Phoenix, Utah, or even Dallas.

2006?

1950?
1950 NBA Finals: Minneapolis 4, Syracuse 2
Lakers: First Champs of Newly Formed NBA

[Mr. Body]

2006?

1950?
1950 NBA Finals: Minneapolis 4, Syracuse 2
Lakers: First Champs of Newly Formed NBA

I'm talking about teams that haven't yet 'paid their dues' in previous playoff battles. This Boston team hasn't. That 2006 Detroit team had been together and was playoff tested.

[FromWayDowntown]

When was the last time a team visiting the Finals for the first time won the Championship? When was the FIRST time it ever happened?

Normally you have to take your scrapes at the Conference Finals or so before you learn how to win it all. Boston certainly hasn't done it; in fact, of the big three, only Pierce has had any real success in the playoffs and that was a while ago in a shoddy Eastern Conference possibly worse than it is now.

The 1999 Spurs didn't really have that pedigree -- certainly not with Duncan aboard. They reached the 2nd round in 1998, but after a couple of close games in SLC against the Jazz to open the series, bowed out rather meekly, relatively speaking. It's not as if they went through the same sorts of trials and tribulations that the 80's Pistons or the 90's Bulls went through before winning titles.

For that matter, the 1980 Lakers hadn't done that either.

[NBA Junkie]

What would KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce know about NBA Finals experience?

The closest the three of them have come is the Conference finals, and just once for each of them. Otherwise, their teams have been slightly above average or just plain suck.

[meta2007]

Never underestimate a champion's heart!

[BeerIsGood!]

When was the last time a team visiting the Finals for the first time won the Championship? When was the FIRST time it ever happened?

Normally you have to take your scrapes at the Conference Finals or so before you learn how to win it all. Boston certainly hasn't done it; in fact, of the big three, only Pierce has had any real success in the playoffs and that was a while ago in a shoddy Eastern Conference possibly worse than it is now.

It's really hard to believe that the Spurs, making the Finals, would lose to any team from the East with the exception of possibly Detroit, although I don't see it. Boston could beat San Antonio, conceivably, but their chances would be far, far better against Phoenix, Utah, or even Dallas.

2006.

But we all know why.

[FromWayDowntown]

What would KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce know about NBA Finals experience?

The closest the three of them have come is the Conference finals, and just once for each of them. Otherwise, their teams have been slightly above average or just plain suck.

Again, that's about as good as could have been said for the 1999 Spurs' best 3 players and that team steamrolled the league in the playoffs.

Playoff experience is important, but it's not the end-all-be-all in defining a team's chances to reach the Finals or win a title. When KG, Allen, and Pierce reached the conference finals by themselves, each played relatively well in that setting.

In 2004, KG went for 23.4 ppg (on 46.3% FG), 13.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.0 bpg

In 2002, Pierce went for 23.7 ppg (on 36.4% FG), 8.5 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 bpg, and 1.8 spg

In 2001, Allen went for 27.1 ppg (on 46.8% FG and 50.9% 3Pt), 3.3 rpg, and 5.4 apg.

It's not as if those guys played poorly -- and it's not as if they had each other in those circumstances.

I'm not saying that Boston is a lock to win the title this year, but I think it's unreasonable to count them out just because none of those guys have ever reached the Finals before. Duncan had a great first Finals; so did Wade; so did Jordan.

[Cry Havoc]

Interesting stats





http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds



Hey, when your team is on the way out, stats are all you have.

[m33p0]

hollinger must be the same guy who advises dolan on the isiah situation.

[NBA Junkie]

Again, that's about as good as could have been said for the 1999 Spurs' best 3 players and that team steamrolled the league in the playoffs.

Playoff experience is important, but it's not the end-all-be-all in defining a team's chances to reach the Finals or win a title. When KG, Allen, and Pierce reached the conference finals by themselves, each played relatively well in that setting.

In 2004, KG went for 23.4 ppg (on 46.3% FG), 13.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.0 bpg

In 2002, Pierce went for 23.7 ppg (on 36.4% FG), 8.5 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 bpg, and 1.8 spg

In 2001, Allen went for 27.1 ppg (on 46.8% FG and 50.9% 3Pt), 3.3 rpg, and 5.4 apg.

It's not as if those guys played poorly -- and it's not as if they had each other in those circumstances.

I'm not saying that Boston is a lock to win the title this year, but I think it's unreasonable to count them out just because none of those guys have ever reached the Finals before. Duncan had a great first Finals; so did Wade; so did Jordan.

The 1999 Spurs also had the good fortune of playing a Knicks team that had no previous finals experience in regards to their core players, save for Patrick Ewing, but he was on the downside of his career and wasn't even the Knicks best player then.

Boston has looked good so far, but we all know that the NBA regular season is a marathon and not a sprint. Hell, the 2005-06 Pistons also looked seemingly unstoppable and we all know how that turned out.

[FromWayDowntown]

The 1999 Spurs also had the good fortune of playing a Knicks team that had no previous finals experience in regards to their core players, save for Patrick Ewing, but he was on the downside of his career and wasn't even the Knicks best player then.

Boston has looked good so far, but we all know that the NBA regular season is a marathon and not a sprint. Hell, the 2005-06 Pistons also looked seemingly unstoppable and we all know how that turned out.

Oh, I agree that it's not a lock that Boston will be there in the end; that team has some depth problems to overcome, I think, and Doc is playing his big 3 some pretty significant minutes in the early going, despite their relatively easy schedule. Again, I'm not saying they're going to win -- I just don't think that you can discount their chances by saying that KG, Allen, and Pierce haven't played in the playoffs together.

[NBA Junkie]

Again, I'm not saying they're going to win -- I just don't think that you can discount their chances by saying that KG, Allen, and Pierce haven't played in the playoffs together.

No doubt about it.

I guess it just gets under my skin when all these so called experts are already giving the Eastern Conference to the Celtics when the Pistons and Cavaliers may have something to say about it.

If they do reach the Finals, I may like their chances against the Suns , but not a Finals experienced team like the Spurs. Especially when you have a more savvy coach like Pop going against a mediocre coach in Doc Rivers.

[dubsball]

This is a complete travesty. Another New England conspiracy. Why don't you let me 8 year old cousins play NY and NJ 8 times a year, they'll have those odds too...sheesh.

[Obstructed_View]

There's something fucked up about those numbers that has nothing to do with how early it is. The East teams are given more weight for some reason. That formula is probably designed to work if every team played every other team an equal amount of times, but you instead have the good teams in the east feasting on the bad ones. The head to head odds favoring the eastern teams suggests that's the problem.

Realistically, it is way too early. Hell, the Spurs have had a boatload of home games. You can't even tell what they're going to do until after the roadeo trip.