duncan228
12-12-2007, 10:36 PM
http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=157266&t=0
Duncan still spurs big moves in San Antonio spreads
By JASON LOGAN
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. But what if one of those parts is a two-time MVP?
The defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs have been without star forward Tim Duncan since Dec. 2 when he went down with a sprained right ankle. The Spurs have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) without Duncan on the floor heading into this Thursday’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
In late November, we did a feature story on the NBA’s most valuable players to the pointspread and Duncan was pegged as having a declining impact on San Antonio’s numbers.
Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the Mirage in Las Vegas, says that while Duncan’s skills aren’t falling off (he’s averaging 17.6 point and 8.9 rebounds) he isn’t the only weapon the Spurs have. The supporting cast of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Michael Finley and others soften the blow to the spread.
San Antonio’s backcourt combo has done its best to pick up the slack with Duncan on the sideline. Ginobili put up back-to-back 37-point efforts and, along with Parker, the two are combining for 68.5 points a night over the past three games.
But while Duncan’s teammates have kept the club competitive against tough opponents, his worth in the eyes of the betting public was apparent, especially this past Tuesday.
The Spurs opened as 3-point road favorites against the Golden State Warriors, a number set after reports were published indicating Duncan would return to action. As game time drew near, news hit that Duncan would again sit.
With this information, bettors pounded the Warriors and moved the line to make Golden State a 2 ½-point favorite. San Antonio fell 96-84 and failed to cover for the first time since losing Duncan.
Las Vegas lines consultant Keith Glantz agrees with the 5 ½-point swing on the spread. He says that while San Antonio has other options on the floor, Duncan is still the man on both offense and defense.
As for Thursday’s game in Los Angeles, Glantz will keep his ear close to the news wires. Unless an update on Duncan’s status comes out before Thursday morning, he’ll send out two lines for the Spurs-Lakers tilt: One with Duncan in and one with him out.
Professional handicapper David Jones doesn’t count out Duncan’s importance to San Antonio. He agrees with Glantz that, although Ginobili and Parker can keep the team afloat for a bit, San Antonio doesn’t want to go long with its captain out of the lineup.
Jones estimates Duncan’s point value can jump between three to five points depending on the matchup. A team like Los Angeles lacks a solid frontcourt and doesn’t have an answer for a post scorer of Duncan’s caliber.
However, the Lakers did hold Duncan to just five points in their most recent meeting on Nov. 13 – a far cry from his 21-point career average versus L.A. The Spurs countered with five other players in double figures and came away with a 107-92 win as 8-point home favorites.
As of Wednesday night, Duncan isn’t expected to play, according to San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich pulled the plug on his veteran’s return this week after tagging Duncan as probable following Monday’s practice.
“He's probably doubtful for L.A.,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News.
“We hope he will be likely for Saturday's game (against the Denver Nuggets at the AT&T Center).
“I just think he's not 100 percent, that's for sure. This early in the season, I'm not sure what the wisdom is in playing him when he's 75 or 80 percent.”
Oddsmakers have not yet set a line for Thursday’s game. San Antonio has only covered in four of the last 10 meeting with the Lakers.
Duncan still spurs big moves in San Antonio spreads
By JASON LOGAN
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. But what if one of those parts is a two-time MVP?
The defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs have been without star forward Tim Duncan since Dec. 2 when he went down with a sprained right ankle. The Spurs have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) without Duncan on the floor heading into this Thursday’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
In late November, we did a feature story on the NBA’s most valuable players to the pointspread and Duncan was pegged as having a declining impact on San Antonio’s numbers.
Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the Mirage in Las Vegas, says that while Duncan’s skills aren’t falling off (he’s averaging 17.6 point and 8.9 rebounds) he isn’t the only weapon the Spurs have. The supporting cast of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Michael Finley and others soften the blow to the spread.
San Antonio’s backcourt combo has done its best to pick up the slack with Duncan on the sideline. Ginobili put up back-to-back 37-point efforts and, along with Parker, the two are combining for 68.5 points a night over the past three games.
But while Duncan’s teammates have kept the club competitive against tough opponents, his worth in the eyes of the betting public was apparent, especially this past Tuesday.
The Spurs opened as 3-point road favorites against the Golden State Warriors, a number set after reports were published indicating Duncan would return to action. As game time drew near, news hit that Duncan would again sit.
With this information, bettors pounded the Warriors and moved the line to make Golden State a 2 ½-point favorite. San Antonio fell 96-84 and failed to cover for the first time since losing Duncan.
Las Vegas lines consultant Keith Glantz agrees with the 5 ½-point swing on the spread. He says that while San Antonio has other options on the floor, Duncan is still the man on both offense and defense.
As for Thursday’s game in Los Angeles, Glantz will keep his ear close to the news wires. Unless an update on Duncan’s status comes out before Thursday morning, he’ll send out two lines for the Spurs-Lakers tilt: One with Duncan in and one with him out.
Professional handicapper David Jones doesn’t count out Duncan’s importance to San Antonio. He agrees with Glantz that, although Ginobili and Parker can keep the team afloat for a bit, San Antonio doesn’t want to go long with its captain out of the lineup.
Jones estimates Duncan’s point value can jump between three to five points depending on the matchup. A team like Los Angeles lacks a solid frontcourt and doesn’t have an answer for a post scorer of Duncan’s caliber.
However, the Lakers did hold Duncan to just five points in their most recent meeting on Nov. 13 – a far cry from his 21-point career average versus L.A. The Spurs countered with five other players in double figures and came away with a 107-92 win as 8-point home favorites.
As of Wednesday night, Duncan isn’t expected to play, according to San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich pulled the plug on his veteran’s return this week after tagging Duncan as probable following Monday’s practice.
“He's probably doubtful for L.A.,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News.
“We hope he will be likely for Saturday's game (against the Denver Nuggets at the AT&T Center).
“I just think he's not 100 percent, that's for sure. This early in the season, I'm not sure what the wisdom is in playing him when he's 75 or 80 percent.”
Oddsmakers have not yet set a line for Thursday’s game. San Antonio has only covered in four of the last 10 meeting with the Lakers.