duncan228
01-10-2008, 11:09 AM
http://www.nysun.com/article/69314
For Once, There's Traffic Atop the West
By MARTIN JOHNSON
Take a quick glance at the Western Conference standings and it appears to be business as usual. The Phoenix Suns, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Dallas Mavericks — the troika that has ruled the conference for the last few seasons — are at the top of the heap. But look closer: There's literally no wiggle room for the top three. Going into last night's action, Dallas and the New Orleans Hornets are separated by mere tiebreakers for the no. 3 seed in the conference, and the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets are tied for the no. 4 seed. The Los Angeles Lakers, thought to be a fringe playoff team at the start of the season, are playing .667 ball. In all, seven teams are playing at .618 or better, and the entire pack is separated by only three games. The seventh seed, the Golden State Warriors, have won 20 out of their last 29 games, but their streak pales in comparison that of their opponent last night, Portland, who has won 16 of 17.
Whew! Now you see why it's worth taking disco naps so you can stay up and watch NBA until well after midnight.
If the Western Conference jumble was only about the top eight teams, it would be an interesting jostle for position, but it goes deeper than that. The Utah Jazz, a conference finalist last season, is currently on the outside looking in, and the Houston Rockets, a team many picked to win the conference, is currently the no. 10 seed, just under .500.
The last 50 games of this season are going to involve the kind of playoff chase not seen in these parts in a long time. With this kind of parity from seeds one through 10, we can be sure that two worthy playoff teams are going to wind up missing the postseason party altogether and a four-game losing streak could send a team from elite to outsider-looking-in in the span of a week.
Let's see how the race separates out by using expected wins, the hoops variation of the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem for projecting team play. Yes, it's nowhere near as much fun as speculating about team chemistry in Phoenix, or team health in New Orleans, but ignore point differential at your own risk. I did last season when Dallas and Phoenix were running up huge victory totals, while San Antonio was merely leading the league in margin of victory. I figured San Antonio's paltry — by their standards — win total of 58 games was a sign that they were ripe for the taking in the playoffs. Well, we know where the 2007 Lawrence O'Brien Trophy lives, and it wasn't just a case of suspensions; the Spurs were the hottest team in the league during the final months of the season.
Looking at point differential as a guide for this season's Western Conference race yields a few surprises. For one, the Lakers (6.2 differential) are the team most likely to finish on top in the Western race. Phil Jackson-haters aren't going to like this one bit, but big Chief Triangle has learned how to develop young talent (his most blatant weakness during his stint in Chicago and his first go-around in Los Angeles). Kobe Bryant is having a subdued year by his standards, but center Andrew Bynum and guards Jordan Farmar and Javaris Crittenton are having breakout seasons.
The road to the Finals will go through Staples Center unless the Spurs (6.1) put on one of their trademark second-half runs. Monday night, in a 130–122 overtime loss to Golden State, Spurs defenders made one uncharacteristic lapse after another. The team is often galvanized by that kind of loss. Also, the Spurs supporting cast is very long in the tooth. This is probably their last roundup, which will further fuel their fire. When measured by point differential, Phoenix (5.9) will lead the middle of the pack, and, barring an injury to point guard Steve Nash, it is hard not to imagine that outcome. Dallas (4.6) and New Orleans (4.3) will remain locked in a closer race for the other top four seedings, and injuries on either team will likely determine the outcome. Meanwhile, since there are bound to be a good many campaign advisers out of work in the coming weeks, someone should start a Chris Paul for MVP candidacy; the Hornets point guard is having an otherworldly season.
The Northwest Division right now looks like a dogfight between Portland and Denver, but point differential gives the edge to … Utah! The Jazz have struggled this season, but their 4.2 differential bodes very well for them against their sturdy opponents.
So who gets left out? Winning streaks or no, point differential isn't very friendly to Portland (0.9) and Golden State (1.5), which would leave Denver (3.1) and Houston (1.5 plus Tracy McGrady returning soon) filling out the field. Of course, it might actually be prudent to measure Golden State only for the games since Stephen Jackson returned or measure Portland in the games since Brandon Roy and Steve Blake became the starting backcourt. So the progress of both teams will bear watching.
One thing is clear. While the Eastern Conference has about six playoff-caliber teams, the West has 10. The league should figure out a way to invite the 16 most deserving teams regardless of geography.
For Once, There's Traffic Atop the West
By MARTIN JOHNSON
Take a quick glance at the Western Conference standings and it appears to be business as usual. The Phoenix Suns, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Dallas Mavericks — the troika that has ruled the conference for the last few seasons — are at the top of the heap. But look closer: There's literally no wiggle room for the top three. Going into last night's action, Dallas and the New Orleans Hornets are separated by mere tiebreakers for the no. 3 seed in the conference, and the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets are tied for the no. 4 seed. The Los Angeles Lakers, thought to be a fringe playoff team at the start of the season, are playing .667 ball. In all, seven teams are playing at .618 or better, and the entire pack is separated by only three games. The seventh seed, the Golden State Warriors, have won 20 out of their last 29 games, but their streak pales in comparison that of their opponent last night, Portland, who has won 16 of 17.
Whew! Now you see why it's worth taking disco naps so you can stay up and watch NBA until well after midnight.
If the Western Conference jumble was only about the top eight teams, it would be an interesting jostle for position, but it goes deeper than that. The Utah Jazz, a conference finalist last season, is currently on the outside looking in, and the Houston Rockets, a team many picked to win the conference, is currently the no. 10 seed, just under .500.
The last 50 games of this season are going to involve the kind of playoff chase not seen in these parts in a long time. With this kind of parity from seeds one through 10, we can be sure that two worthy playoff teams are going to wind up missing the postseason party altogether and a four-game losing streak could send a team from elite to outsider-looking-in in the span of a week.
Let's see how the race separates out by using expected wins, the hoops variation of the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem for projecting team play. Yes, it's nowhere near as much fun as speculating about team chemistry in Phoenix, or team health in New Orleans, but ignore point differential at your own risk. I did last season when Dallas and Phoenix were running up huge victory totals, while San Antonio was merely leading the league in margin of victory. I figured San Antonio's paltry — by their standards — win total of 58 games was a sign that they were ripe for the taking in the playoffs. Well, we know where the 2007 Lawrence O'Brien Trophy lives, and it wasn't just a case of suspensions; the Spurs were the hottest team in the league during the final months of the season.
Looking at point differential as a guide for this season's Western Conference race yields a few surprises. For one, the Lakers (6.2 differential) are the team most likely to finish on top in the Western race. Phil Jackson-haters aren't going to like this one bit, but big Chief Triangle has learned how to develop young talent (his most blatant weakness during his stint in Chicago and his first go-around in Los Angeles). Kobe Bryant is having a subdued year by his standards, but center Andrew Bynum and guards Jordan Farmar and Javaris Crittenton are having breakout seasons.
The road to the Finals will go through Staples Center unless the Spurs (6.1) put on one of their trademark second-half runs. Monday night, in a 130–122 overtime loss to Golden State, Spurs defenders made one uncharacteristic lapse after another. The team is often galvanized by that kind of loss. Also, the Spurs supporting cast is very long in the tooth. This is probably their last roundup, which will further fuel their fire. When measured by point differential, Phoenix (5.9) will lead the middle of the pack, and, barring an injury to point guard Steve Nash, it is hard not to imagine that outcome. Dallas (4.6) and New Orleans (4.3) will remain locked in a closer race for the other top four seedings, and injuries on either team will likely determine the outcome. Meanwhile, since there are bound to be a good many campaign advisers out of work in the coming weeks, someone should start a Chris Paul for MVP candidacy; the Hornets point guard is having an otherworldly season.
The Northwest Division right now looks like a dogfight between Portland and Denver, but point differential gives the edge to … Utah! The Jazz have struggled this season, but their 4.2 differential bodes very well for them against their sturdy opponents.
So who gets left out? Winning streaks or no, point differential isn't very friendly to Portland (0.9) and Golden State (1.5), which would leave Denver (3.1) and Houston (1.5 plus Tracy McGrady returning soon) filling out the field. Of course, it might actually be prudent to measure Golden State only for the games since Stephen Jackson returned or measure Portland in the games since Brandon Roy and Steve Blake became the starting backcourt. So the progress of both teams will bear watching.
One thing is clear. While the Eastern Conference has about six playoff-caliber teams, the West has 10. The league should figure out a way to invite the 16 most deserving teams regardless of geography.