m33p0
01-25-2008, 08:27 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7714112/Should-Spurs-fans-fret-or-have-faith?
Should Spurs fans fret or have faith?
by Randy Hill
Veteran columnist Randy Hill is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com.
Updated: January 24, 2008, 3:51 PM EST 44 comments
The next issue we're bringing before NBA watchdogs is propelled by the tricky variable of worry. Specifically, when is the proper time to display symptoms of the heebie-jeebies?
If you're a coach, the answer is simple — any time is a good time to worry, just don't let your players, fans or beat writers see it.
Manu Ginobili and the other Spurs stars were sidelined by injuries but are now back at full strength.
But if you're a fan of the San Antonio Spurs, should now rank as a fine time to gnash your teeth? Please note that in recent seasons, any worry attached to Spurs fans was limited to finding a good viewing space for the parade, expecting Tim Duncan to be snubbed in the MVP voting and wondering if an upcoming marital commitment would compromise the playoff performance of Tony Parker.
Based on the last 20 games, this season's worry potential may have accrued more significance than usual. In case you didn't notice, the Spurs have collected 10 defeats in those 20 play dates, a run of relative failure that's extremely rare in San Antonio.
Such struggling inspires a roll call of concerns that includes — but is not limited to — issues of alleged regular-season boredom and mileage on the team's familiar cast of role players.
Well, I'm here to announce that Spurs fans should begin to embrace a little worry. However, I'm also prepared to announce that they have no compelling reason to be more concerned than Lakers fans may be over the loss of Andrew Bynum, or Mavericks fans over the clutch-time disappearance of Dirk Nowitzki, or Suns fans over their team's inability to guard Tim Duncan (or Al Jefferson or ...).
With Wednesday's second half against the Lakers as our most recent guide, any excessive worrying seems silly.
For a professional prognosis on Spurs concerns, I've consulted an assistant coach currently employed by a Western Conference team whose fans have been worried — for good reason — for several years.
"The Spurs always seem to hit a skid about this time of the year," the coach said.
I hadn't noticed, but decided to look into this. Well, according to the NBA's historical scrolls, the Spurs were a shaky 3-5 during a stretch from Jan. 24 to Feb. 11 last season.
Ironically, most of this stumble occurred during the Spurs' annual vacation from San Antonio that coincides with surrendering their home venue to the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo.
Dubbed the "Rodeo Road Trip," this bonding adventure hasn't exactly been an annual cause for Spurs fan tribulation. OK, so the Spurs were 4-4 on last year's Rodeo trip. They seemed to get over this bump with minimal damage and finished the playoffs in pretty good shape.
It also should be pointed out that their combined mark for the previous four years of Rodeo swings is a gaudy 25-6. Yeah, bring it on.
For the record, this year's Rodeo roadie begins next Monday in Salt Lake City and will include nine games. The other hosts cities along the way are Seattle, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Washington, D.C., New York, Boston, Toronto and Cleveland.
Whoa, that's six teams with winning records. That's a bit unexpected because most of this trip takes the Spurs through the Eastern Conference.
Anyway, a review of the last five years indicates that the Spurs really do produce a relative stinker month at least once in recent seasons, with highlights of our nitpicking pointed at the 5-6 April of 2004-2005, the 8-7 November of 2003-2004 or the 9-8 January of that same season. With sufficient validation of his theme, let's seek more insight from our insider.
"For whatever reason, the Spurs seem to peak about late February or early March," said the coach, who didn't bother mentioning that this reason may have something to do with upcoming priorities like playoffs. "Plus, they've had injuries that slowed their progress this year."
How true. Duncan missed four games in early December, his absence overlapping — for one game — an ankle injury to Parker that kept Tony on the sidelines for another four. Manu Ginobili then got into the act by missing five games a week after Parker returned.
Before Duncan's injury, the Spurs were rolling and had won 15 of 18. Since all three have been at coach Gregg Popovich's disposal again, the Spurs are a pedestrian 5-4.
"I think their role players are average at best," said the coach, preaching to the choir. "Without Ginobili, Duncan or Parker, they're a beatable team."
Right, losing one of these guys for the playoffs would provide reason for worry. We're all buying that one.
"Remember, in the playoffs there are no back-to-back games," the coach said in reference to concerns about the worn tread on San Antonio's role players. "These guys might be older, but they'll have plenty of rest between games."
Well, let's assume the Spurs will receive top performances from their three stars, allowing us to pay more attention to inspecting this role-player-mileage issue. A good player to begin with is 34-year-old swingman Michael Finley, the team's fourth-leading scorer.
Finley's scoring average is up 1.3 points (from 9.0 to 10.3) over last season, with a reasonable two-point dip in field-goal percentage (41 to 39) and a five-minute hike (22.2 to 27.2) in per-game minutes. While he's not equipped (or needed) to produce as he did in Dallas, the former Wisconsin Badger has yet to fall apart.
Brent Barry checks in at age 36 with a 1.1 points-per-game dip in scoring, a one-point jump in field-goal percentage and a two-minutes-per-game drop in playing time.
Starter Bruce Bowen, at 36, still seems capable of hacking the life out of another team's top perimeter player and the other Spurs role players are relatively young, if not excessively talented. Popovich has even found a few minutes for the much-traveled, 30-year-old Ime Udoka, who put 18 points on the Lakers.
Another potential worry has been Robert "Big Shot Bob" Horry, a 37-year-old playoff specialist who didn't allow his diminished regular-season time to prevent the Spurs from winning the title last year.
While too much should not be made of the 10-10 stretch or the solid triumph over L.A., we may crystallize our Spurs expectations at the end of this Rodeo excursion.
If all goes well, it may portend a real San Antonio hayride beginning in late April.
Should Spurs fans fret or have faith?
by Randy Hill
Veteran columnist Randy Hill is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com.
Updated: January 24, 2008, 3:51 PM EST 44 comments
The next issue we're bringing before NBA watchdogs is propelled by the tricky variable of worry. Specifically, when is the proper time to display symptoms of the heebie-jeebies?
If you're a coach, the answer is simple — any time is a good time to worry, just don't let your players, fans or beat writers see it.
Manu Ginobili and the other Spurs stars were sidelined by injuries but are now back at full strength.
But if you're a fan of the San Antonio Spurs, should now rank as a fine time to gnash your teeth? Please note that in recent seasons, any worry attached to Spurs fans was limited to finding a good viewing space for the parade, expecting Tim Duncan to be snubbed in the MVP voting and wondering if an upcoming marital commitment would compromise the playoff performance of Tony Parker.
Based on the last 20 games, this season's worry potential may have accrued more significance than usual. In case you didn't notice, the Spurs have collected 10 defeats in those 20 play dates, a run of relative failure that's extremely rare in San Antonio.
Such struggling inspires a roll call of concerns that includes — but is not limited to — issues of alleged regular-season boredom and mileage on the team's familiar cast of role players.
Well, I'm here to announce that Spurs fans should begin to embrace a little worry. However, I'm also prepared to announce that they have no compelling reason to be more concerned than Lakers fans may be over the loss of Andrew Bynum, or Mavericks fans over the clutch-time disappearance of Dirk Nowitzki, or Suns fans over their team's inability to guard Tim Duncan (or Al Jefferson or ...).
With Wednesday's second half against the Lakers as our most recent guide, any excessive worrying seems silly.
For a professional prognosis on Spurs concerns, I've consulted an assistant coach currently employed by a Western Conference team whose fans have been worried — for good reason — for several years.
"The Spurs always seem to hit a skid about this time of the year," the coach said.
I hadn't noticed, but decided to look into this. Well, according to the NBA's historical scrolls, the Spurs were a shaky 3-5 during a stretch from Jan. 24 to Feb. 11 last season.
Ironically, most of this stumble occurred during the Spurs' annual vacation from San Antonio that coincides with surrendering their home venue to the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo.
Dubbed the "Rodeo Road Trip," this bonding adventure hasn't exactly been an annual cause for Spurs fan tribulation. OK, so the Spurs were 4-4 on last year's Rodeo trip. They seemed to get over this bump with minimal damage and finished the playoffs in pretty good shape.
It also should be pointed out that their combined mark for the previous four years of Rodeo swings is a gaudy 25-6. Yeah, bring it on.
For the record, this year's Rodeo roadie begins next Monday in Salt Lake City and will include nine games. The other hosts cities along the way are Seattle, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Washington, D.C., New York, Boston, Toronto and Cleveland.
Whoa, that's six teams with winning records. That's a bit unexpected because most of this trip takes the Spurs through the Eastern Conference.
Anyway, a review of the last five years indicates that the Spurs really do produce a relative stinker month at least once in recent seasons, with highlights of our nitpicking pointed at the 5-6 April of 2004-2005, the 8-7 November of 2003-2004 or the 9-8 January of that same season. With sufficient validation of his theme, let's seek more insight from our insider.
"For whatever reason, the Spurs seem to peak about late February or early March," said the coach, who didn't bother mentioning that this reason may have something to do with upcoming priorities like playoffs. "Plus, they've had injuries that slowed their progress this year."
How true. Duncan missed four games in early December, his absence overlapping — for one game — an ankle injury to Parker that kept Tony on the sidelines for another four. Manu Ginobili then got into the act by missing five games a week after Parker returned.
Before Duncan's injury, the Spurs were rolling and had won 15 of 18. Since all three have been at coach Gregg Popovich's disposal again, the Spurs are a pedestrian 5-4.
"I think their role players are average at best," said the coach, preaching to the choir. "Without Ginobili, Duncan or Parker, they're a beatable team."
Right, losing one of these guys for the playoffs would provide reason for worry. We're all buying that one.
"Remember, in the playoffs there are no back-to-back games," the coach said in reference to concerns about the worn tread on San Antonio's role players. "These guys might be older, but they'll have plenty of rest between games."
Well, let's assume the Spurs will receive top performances from their three stars, allowing us to pay more attention to inspecting this role-player-mileage issue. A good player to begin with is 34-year-old swingman Michael Finley, the team's fourth-leading scorer.
Finley's scoring average is up 1.3 points (from 9.0 to 10.3) over last season, with a reasonable two-point dip in field-goal percentage (41 to 39) and a five-minute hike (22.2 to 27.2) in per-game minutes. While he's not equipped (or needed) to produce as he did in Dallas, the former Wisconsin Badger has yet to fall apart.
Brent Barry checks in at age 36 with a 1.1 points-per-game dip in scoring, a one-point jump in field-goal percentage and a two-minutes-per-game drop in playing time.
Starter Bruce Bowen, at 36, still seems capable of hacking the life out of another team's top perimeter player and the other Spurs role players are relatively young, if not excessively talented. Popovich has even found a few minutes for the much-traveled, 30-year-old Ime Udoka, who put 18 points on the Lakers.
Another potential worry has been Robert "Big Shot Bob" Horry, a 37-year-old playoff specialist who didn't allow his diminished regular-season time to prevent the Spurs from winning the title last year.
While too much should not be made of the 10-10 stretch or the solid triumph over L.A., we may crystallize our Spurs expectations at the end of this Rodeo excursion.
If all goes well, it may portend a real San Antonio hayride beginning in late April.