Spurs to pay the luxury-tax?

[biba]

By Marc Stein ESPN.com
http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-080202-03

When Damon Stoudamire formally signs with San Antonio on Saturday, he will secure a salary of $538,054 for the final 75 days of the regular season, pro-rated from the NBA veteran minimum of $1.2 million.

Stoudamire's salary-cap figure will actually be a mere $339,975 -- because the league pays a portion of the salary on veterans with at least three seasons of service time who sign at the minimum rate -- but that small amount is still enough to potentially cost San Antonio some $2 million at season's end.

The Spurs, at present, are about $275,000 under the luxury-tax line. They need Stoudamire even more now than when they started pursuing him with Parker out indefinitely thanks to a heel injury, but bringing him in will prevent the Spurs from collecting the estimated rebate in the $2 million range afforded to all teams at season's end that stayed under the tax line ...

unless San Antonio makes a trade between now and the Feb. 21 trading deadline that takes its payroll back below the line.

[TDMVPDPOY]

fok the rebate

isnt the spurs makn a profit anyway?

cant for once they stop being cheap fucks? and build a team to repeat

[timvp]

This will give the Spurs even more reason to make a trade. With more than $15M in expiring contracts, the Spurs won't find it that hard to find a trade partner.

The scary thing, however, is I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a pick to save the money. They'd justify it by pointing to Splitter and leaking some BS rumor that Mahinmi had a bad attitude while with the Toros.

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .

[Holt's Cat]

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .

Well, I am getting worried. It's been about 3 months since the Spurs gifted a player they drafted to another team.

[ChumpDumper]

I don't see how they could start anything about Ian. I'm sure they'll look for trades, but they've paid the tax when we thought they would before....

[TDMVPDPOY]

15m in expiring contracts

alot of teams are havin a fire sale

might as well put out a few options see what we can get

[objective]

I would guess any trade to get under the tax would involve the Spurs actually including cash considerations with Elson/Barry/whomever to other teams for garbage like a conditional second rounder.

Nothing beats paying 500k to a million in order to get under the tax and get a portion of the money.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I would guess any trade to get under the tax would involve the Spurs actually including cash considerations with Elson/Barry/whomever to other teams for garbage like a conditional second rounder.

Nothing beats paying 500k to a million in order to get under the tax and get a portion of the money.

if this cost us a repeat?

than fock that

[hsxvvd]

I wouldn't dump Elson or Barry, maybe even Bonner. Mahimi makes sense, because he won't really make much of a difference this year or not.

There are also a few teams under the cap, who might also have something we might be able to get in return.

[objective]

Elson deserves to be sent away.

He has no role in the Spurs future, and there's no reason to keep him around and pretend that he'll have some role in the playoffs now that Udoka is strong enough to handle himself against PFs in a smallball role.

Elson's role diminished in each series of the playoffs last year and I hope he's out of here sooner rather than later.

[Quasar]

I'd send away bonner + elson + whoever else required. Barry would be a last option... I'd love for him to retire as a Spur!

Obviously, getting Mike Miller from the Grizz would've been an awesome replacement.

Ian + Splitter should be kept though.. you can never have enough big men. It's not as if Ian would be commanding a huge salary next year. And if they do work out, I guess they could get rid of Oberto if they're in a really tight spot and don't want to pay, but it would be dumb to get rid of such promising players just to save a bit of $$$ (a bit for Holt anyway)...

[Bruno]

Signing Stoudamire will cost something like $3M to Spurs if they don't do a trade to go below the luxury tax.
I doubt that they think that the "upgrade" from Vaughn to Stoudamire is worth $3M. Spurs could have managed Parker's injury by signing a player like Mike Wilks to a ten days contract for the second leg of the RRT, it would have allowed them to stay below the tax.

Odds of a trade are pretty high right now unless Holt don't care at all spending $3M.
to me, players on the trading block are Elson, Barry and Bonner (in that order). If Spurs needs to trade something with more value, I can see them trading future draft picks. Spurs struggling makes Spurs 2008 first round pick a little more attractive for other teams.

[timvp]

Signing Stoudamire will cost something like $3M to Spurs if they don't do a trade to go below the luxury tax.
I doubt that they think that the "upgrade" from Vaughn to Stoudamire is worth $3M. Spurs could have managed Parker's injury by signing a player like Mike Wilks to a ten days contract for the second leg of the RRT, it would have allowed them to stay below the tax.

Odds of a trade are pretty high right now unless Holt don't care at all spending $3M.
to me, players on the trading block are Elson, Barry and Bonner (in that order). If Spurs needs to trade something with more value, I can see them trading future draft picks. Spurs struggling makes Spurs 2008 first round pick a little more attractive for other teams.It'd be a lot harder to trade one of those three players than it would be to trade Mahinmi. Not many teams can absorb those contracts, so finding a suitable trade isn't always possible. Can't you see a scenario where the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a future pick and then point to Splitter as the reason?

That's like Spurs Trades 101.

[Bruno]

It'd be a lot harder to trade one of those three players than it would be to trade Mahinmi. Not many teams can absorb those contracts, so finding a suitable trade isn't always possible. Can't you see a scenario where the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a future pick and then point to Splitter as the reason?

That's like Spurs Trades 101.

Elson is quite easy to trade. Trade him for a player paid between $2.3M and $2.93M and Spurs end up below the luxury tax.
Elson contract is front loaded. While we are at mid season, Spurs or the team who trade for him will only have to give him $300K until the end of the season.

If Spurs like Mahinmi, I don't see them dumping him. Pop said he was happy with Mahinmi improvement and that he will be playing with Spurs next year. I don't see Spurs trading Mahinmi unless they get a good return for him. Given that Mahinmi trade value should be still low, I don't think he will be traded.

[whottt]

The scary thing, however, is I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a pick to save the money. They'd justify it by pointing to Splitter and leaking some BS rumor that Mahinmi had a bad attitude while with the Toros.

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .



Hmmm....maybe that's why Pop was at the game tonight. To make a final decision.


That would suck.


The thing is...the Scola trade probably has them wary of doing another move like that. I think if they were really that determined to save money they just wouldn't have signed Stoudamire.

Whether anyone wants to admit it or not...Stoudamire could very well be done. He wasn't exactly tearing it up with Memphis this year, and it wouldn't be the first time the Spurs have signed a an aging PG only to find out he was done...you'd think they would be careful about doing that again after Charlie Ward and NVE. Hard to see them putting that much money out on the table if they are so worried about spending it.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i dont think elson, bonner or our expiring pieces are worth jackshit

[WalterBenitez]

How much Spurs would have to pay? Could they avoid luzury tax making trades?

[wildchild]

I'd send away bonner + elson + whoever else required. Barry would be a last option... I'd love for him to retire as a Spur!

Obviously, getting Mike Miller from the Grizz would've been an awesome replacement.

Ian + Splitter should be kept though.. you can never have enough big men. It's not as if Ian would be commanding a huge salary next year. And if they do work out, I guess they could get rid of Oberto if they're in a really tight spot and don't want to pay, but it would be dumb to get rid of such promising players just to save a bit of $$$ (a bit for Holt anyway)...

Ian and Splitter are exciting prospects for the Spurs but without Horry next year nor Elson, maybe we'll need a veteran guy like Oberto who helps the rookies. Duncan, Oberto, Mahinmi and Splitter in front court. it sounds good for me.

[AFBlue]

I think I'd be upset if the Spurs gave up on Mahinmi. I think he has really suprised this year when most of us thought he would be little more than a fringe guy if anything. Of course he still has a long way to go, but you could see him being a regular rotation player in the NBA if he continues his development.

I'd advocate trading Elson for someone like Othella Harrington....another player on an expiring contract that would put the Spurs under the lux tax threshold.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Please Lord don't let the Spurs trade Mahinmi.

[Mr. Body]

This will give the Spurs even more reason to make a trade. With more than $15M in expiring contracts, the Spurs won't find it that hard to find a trade partner.

The scary thing, however, is I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a pick to save the money. They'd justify it by pointing to Splitter and leaking some BS rumor that Mahinmi had a bad attitude while with the Toros.

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .

You're 100% correct.

Almost.

Most likely they would package Mahinmi to get rid of the 'bad salary' of Matt Bonner.

It is not the Spurs' way to trade assets for assets like a draft pick. They trade assets for the absence of costs.

[ploto]

I think I'd be upset if the Spurs gave up on Mahinmi. I think he has really suprised this year when most of us thought he would be little more than a fringe guy if anything. Of course he still has a long way to go, but you could see him being a regular rotation player in the NBA if he continues his development.

I'd advocate trading Elson for someone like Othella Harrington....another player on an expiring contract that would put the Spurs under the lux tax threshold.
There would have to be an incentive for the other team to trade the Spurs back an expiring deal worth less than Elson-- such as cash AND a pick. I don't see that Bonner is particularly tradeable by himself because he is in the first year of a three year deal. Barry is the guy who could actually be able to help a team- when he is healthy.

I could definitely see the Spurs packaging Ian or the rights to some player with a player to shed salary.

[Bruno]

There is nothing to back up the idea of Spurs trading Mahinmi. For the moment, all signs point towards Spurs liking him and wanting to keep him.
If Spurs want to go under the tax, they can easily trade Elson.

[boutons_]

Ian better make progress on the excessive fouling, or he's more susceptible to being traded.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

i dont think elson, bonner or our expiring pieces are worth jackshit

Considering we just saw Kwame Brown's expiring contract bring in Gasol in return, I'd have to disagree.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The scary thing, however, is I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs trade Mahinmi for a pick to save the money. They'd justify it by pointing to Splitter and leaking some BS rumor that Mahinmi had a bad attitude while with the Toros.

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .


This would suck. I can see this happening and it sucks. :pctoss

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It seems like there's a lot of buzz about teams looking for cap relief to make some moves in the off-season.

That makes guys like Barry and Elson prime trade bait.

The Spurs brought Ian up just to have him tag along on part of the RRT for a couple of days, don't see them trading him.

[T Park]

I think everyone is freaking out for absolutely no reason...

[duncan228]

I think everyone is freaking out for absolutely no reason...

We have four days between games.
This board has to have something to freak out about with that much time to kill. :)

[AFBlue]

There would have to be an incentive for the other team to trade the Spurs back an expiring deal worth less than Elson-- such as cash AND a pick. I don't see that Bonner is particularly tradeable by himself because he is in the first year of a three year deal. Barry is the guy who could actually be able to help a team- when he is healthy.

I could definitely see the Spurs packaging Ian or the rights to some player with a player to shed salary.

Right, second round pick should do. I think that was the agreement for Ely last year...

[T Park]

This board has to have something to freak out about with that much time to kill

Never understood that mentality :lol

Theres 4 days off.

Enjoy the gorgeous weather outside!!! :)

[timmy21_4rings]

They'd justify it by pointing to Splitter and leaking some BS rumor that Mahinmi had a bad attitude while with the Toros.

Just warning you Spurs fans now . . .

You have come up with a big BS argument. If Spurs says Ian has bad attitude before trade, not many teams want to deal with Ian who is showing bad attitude in Development League. On the other hand if they tell it after the trade, Spurs will lose the credibility with the teams are trying to trade Ian. I do not think Spurs FO is going to create any rumor. Spurs (specifically Pop and RC) have more credibility than you think.

[ploto]

I do not think Spurs FO is going to create any rumor. Spurs (specifically Pop and RC) have more credibility than you think.
Just know this-- if all the sudden the Express-News starts writing something negative about any Spurs player-- that he has not come along as they thought-- that he has not caught onto the defensive schemes,...-- anything at all, the fans are being prepared for the possibility that said player may soon be traded. Fans can then say-- oh, yeah, remember, I heard he was ...whatever they read. The only problem for the Spurs is that Ludden is gone because he was the guy who always set this up for them.

[timvp]

There is nothing to back up the idea of Spurs trading Mahinmi. For the moment, all signs point towards Spurs liking him and wanting to keep him.You can't go by what Pop says. Two days before the Spurs traded for Nazr, Pop said that Rasho was the second best center in the NBA behind Shaq :lol

In practice the other day he went on and on about how great Jeremy Richardson was and how he could become a very good player in the league.

And when he's answering questions about Mahinmi in the media, he's talking to French reporters. Of course he's going to say nice things. What's he going to say? ... "He's decent but he fouls too much."


If Spurs want to go under the tax, they can easily trade Elson.They can but I don't think it'd be easy.

The Spurs could realistically trade Elson one-on-one for the following players and get under the threshold:

Othella Harrington - Charlotte
Steve Francis, Kirk Snyder - Houston
Alonzo Mourning - Miami
Mark Madsen - Minnesota
Damien Wilkins - Seattle
Juan Dixon - Toronto

Those are the only realistic options I see. Out of those options, the trade for Harrington is the most realistic. However, if that falls through, none of the others make nearly as much sense for the other team. Houston will probably be trying to make the playoffs and it'd suck to gift them a better play for trash (again). Heat could move Mourning's dead contract but would probably hold back for sentimental value. Madsen and Wilkins both have multiple years left on their contract, which would likely scare the Spurs away. Toronto actually needs Dixon due to TJ Ford being fragile.

You say it would be "easy" but I only see one realistic trade in the whole league. Do you have some others?

[Bruno]

You can't go by what Pop says.

You can't go by thinking that Pop is always in CIA mode.
I put zero weight when Pop said that a player is great.
However, when Pop says "Mahinmi will be in SA next year", it's a hint that he likes Mahinmi and that his goal isn't to trade him.
When Pop call up Mahinmi with the only goal of creating friendship between him and Spurs players, I doubt his plan is to trade Mahinmi.




You say it would be "easy" but I only see one realistic trade in the whole league. Do you have some others?

Oh, yes.

You can add some cash or a second to these trades if you want. Sometimes TE are used. Spurs can trade Elson for :
1) Othella Harington
2) JamesOn Curry + Viktor Khryapa
3) Primoz Brezec
4) Austin Croshere
5) Aaron Williams + Dan Dickau
6) Alonzo Mounring
7) Gerald Green

All these trades are for players with expiring contracts.
And you can add to that list trades where Spurs get a player they like without an expiring contract or trades where Spurs package Elson with a first round pick to get a good player.

And a trade with Mahinmi to go under the cap isn't easiest to do.
You had to trade Mahinmi for a TE. Spurs must find a team with a TE, a roster spot and that is ready to take Mahinmi's non expiring contract.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

What's everybody's thoughts on Khryapa?

[Bruno]

What's everybody's thoughts on Khryapa?

He struggles a lot in NBA because he is too slow to play SF and too thin to play PF.
He is a good player but he hasn't found his niche in NBA. If he doesn't find it this year, I'm quite sure he will be back in Russia this summer with a big contract (about $3M per year).

[SenorSpur]

I think I'd be upset if the Spurs gave up on Mahinmi. I think he has really suprised this year when most of us thought he would be little more than a fringe guy if anything. Of course he still has a long way to go, but you could see him being a regular rotation player in the NBA if he continues his development.

I'd advocate trading Elson for someone like Othella Harrington....another player on an expiring contract that would put the Spurs under the lux tax threshold.

As bad off as Tim needs frontline support, they'd better not even THINK about getting rid of Mahinmi. On most nights, it often appears as though it's Tim versus the other three opposing frontline players - simply because he has little to know help.

[objective]

As bad off as Tim needs frontline support, they'd better not even THINK about getting rid of Mahinmi. On most nights, it often appears as though it's Tim versus the other three opposing frontline players - simply because he has little to know help.

That might work against Mahinmi.

The other frontline players have been so bad that Pop routinely goes to smallball against teams small and big.

But last year when Oberto and Elson were combining for one-rebound games against the Jazz and otherwise stinking it up during the regular season, Jackie Butler wasn't even given the opportunity to prove how bad he could be in real gametime. He was traded away in the summer, and the Spurs had to throw in Scola to do it.

Same could apply to Mahinmi. Sure, he's doing well in the d-league and showing improvement. But if he isn't getting any opportunities to even try to prove himself on the NBA-level when Pop sure looks like he has modest-to-little-to-no faith in Oberto, Elson, Bonner and Horry . . . maybe a Jackie-Butler-esque trade is in the near future ?

[whottt]

He struggles a lot in NBA because he is too slow to play SF and too thin to play PF.
He is a good player but he hasn't found his niche in NBA. If he doesn't find it this year, I'm quite sure he will be back in Russia this summer with a big contract (about $3M per year).


I'm gonna disagree with you on this one Bruno...

Krapa struggles because he's got like 45 SF playing in front of him...all of whom are very good SF. They wanted him in that trade and Portland didn't really want to give him up.

He's not ever going to be a star but he can be a nice role player.


You need to realize...the Bulls MGMT and coaching staff are idiots. Complete and total idiots.


They are attempting to hoard every SF in the NBA for some stupid reason...it's why their team is going down the toilet now.

[Supergirl]

the impression i get is that Pop likes Mahinmi a lot, i think he's not going anywhere. Elson, on the other hand, has not played all that well and often messes up defensive rotations, so I could see him going. But I don't think Pop would let anyone else go.

[ploto]

Maybe just maybe, they called up Ian so Pop could see him for himself in person for a few days and make some of his own evaluations...

[The Truth #6]

Trading Barry is always their first option it seems with the FO. If a player is traded I could imagine it being Barry. Why? Because it's totally stupid and the Spurs don't always make great moves and they never seem to have faith in Barry even though he's more productive than Finley.

That's the thing to keep in mind with signing Damon and trading a player to get under the cap. It makes the idiotic assumption that Damon is more worthwhile than the player they would be sending out. Damon is pretty much done - that's why he wants to come here. Is he better than Barry? Of course not. Is he better than Ian? Of course that's insane also.

If anyone goes it has to be Elson. If it's any other player the Spurs are shooting themselves in the foot.

[timvp]

1) Othella Harington
2) JamesOn Curry + Viktor Khryapa
3) Primoz Brezec
4) Austin Croshere
5) Aaron Williams + Dan Dickau
6) Alonzo Mounring
7) Gerald GreenI've already hit on number's 1 and 6. I think 1 is by far the most possible. For number 2, that'd only happen if the Bulls have given up on both players. Number 3 would be a lateral move most likely and Brezec is likely viewed as being better than Elson. Number 4 is unlikely because Mullin/Nellie actually like him and he fits into their system. Number 5 could happen but trying to trade with the Clippers has always been difficult for the Spurs. Number 7 is unlikely because the T'Wolves could get something better.

I'll admit that there are trades out there that can but made regarding Elson, but I still stand by saying it won't be "easy" to pull off.

[ChumpDumper]

Didn't we say the Spurs were going to do this last season?

[timvp]

And really, I don't get why it's hard to believe that Mahinmi is the Spur most likely on the chopping block. I'm not even saying to interpret Pop's words as him being CIA Pop. I'm just going to ignore his words because him saying Mahinmi will play with the Spurs next year has as much of a chance of being a true statement as it does of Pop just pacifying the French reporters who asked the question.

So ignoring Pop's comment, let's look at the facts regarding Mahinmi:

1) The Spurs number one free agent target this summer was Amir Johnson. Johnson is an exact clone of Mahinmi. 6-foot-11 with very good athleticism but raw. Now the Spurs are rumored to be going after Tyrus Thomas. Thomas is another athletic big with a lot of similar attributes to Mahinmi. Why would the Spurs be targeting these athletic bigman projects if they were perfectly contend with their own athletic bigman project?

2) The Spurs gave Mahinmi the smallest contract allowed under the rules. I don't know of another first round draft pick who has gotten only the smallest amount allowed. By offering that amount and holding firm, you can't believe that the Spurs think Mahinmi is a can't-miss prospect.

3) The guy who scouted Mahinmi and drafted Mahinmi is in Seattle. Mahinmi was 100% a Sam Presti move. No one in the current front office has much invested in Mahinmi panning out or not.

4) With the bigmen struggling this year, the Spurs haven't even hinted about bringing Mahinmi up and giving him a shot. If he was untouchable like some in this thread try to claim, don't you think they'd at least give him a courtesy look?

5) Mahinmi was thought of as a defensive and shotblocking prospect. He lands in Austin and becomes an offensive prospect who plays little to no defense and shows little in the way of rebounding or blocking shots. In fact, a lot of Mahinmi's flaws are the same flaws that led the Spurs to trading Luis Scola (lack of rebounding, shotblocking and shooting and an over-reliance on low post play).

And while it's true that Elson sucks (who woulda thunk it :rolleyes), he's not a completely dispensable part at this time. If Oberto goes down, who do you start? Horry? Bonner? I've disliked Elson from day one but even I can see the value he brings. He's been in the system for a season and a half and if something goes wrong or a big gets hurt, Elson at least will know what's going on. You salary dump Elson and all of a sudden you are extremely thin at center. I mean, Elson sucks but trading him doesn't help win a championship ... it hurts the chances.

The same thing can be said about Barry. Barry has had some ugly days on the Spurs and he's a bit overrated these days, but I don't want to salary dump Barry. If the Spurs dry up on perimeter shooting, Barry at least gives the team an option to try to spread the opposing defense.

I'm not trying to throw cold water on the Mahinmi fans but this is the reality. If the Spurs are going to try to get under the luxury tax threshold, Mahinmi in my opinion is far and away the odd man out. And while Holt has paid the tax in the past, the Spurs were tip toeing that line blatantly until Stoudamire became available. I don't think the tip toeing was on accident, I think the Spurs really planned on staying under the threshold until Stoudamire fell into their laps.

I still like Mahinmi and I think he has the potential to be a nice player one or two years down the line, but I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend there aren't signs pointing to his days potentially being numbered.

[Bruno]

1) The Spurs number one free agent target this summer was Amir Johnson. Johnson is an exact clone of Mahinmi. 6-foot-11 with very good athleticism but raw. Now the Spurs are rumored to be going after Tyrus Thomas. Thomas is another athletic big with a lot of similar attributes to Mahinmi. Why would the Spurs be targeting these athletic bigman projects if they were perfectly contend with their own athletic bigman project?

2) The Spurs gave Mahinmi the smallest contract allowed under the rules. I don't know of another first round draft pick who has gotten only the smallest amount allowed. By offering that amount and holding firm, you can't believe that the Spurs think Mahinmi is a can't-miss prospect.

I agree that Spurs likely were quite low on Mahinmi this summer. It was quite understandable after his bad season in Europe and his injury during the summer.
However, I disagree with Spurs going after Thomas (if the rumor is true) means that they don't like Mahinmi. You are the first to say how Thomas is a way better prospect/player than Mahinmi. Spurs could like Mahinmi and go after Thomas at the same time because Thomas is clearly a better player/prospect. If someone offers you to change your car into a Ferrari for a cheap price, you would do it even if you likes your car.



No one in the current front office has much invested in Mahinmi panning out or not.

I don't believe in that argument after Spurs waived my beloved Marcus Williams four month after having invested a 33rd pick on him.



If he was untouchable like some in this thread try to claim, don't you think they'd at least give him a courtesy look?

Mahinmi isn't ready to contribute this year. The best for his development is to play in Austin instead of being an end of the bench player with Spurs.
Spurs seems to put some efforts into Mahinmi development with the physical trainer who work with him in France going to Austin and a bigmen coach mainly hired to work with him.



Mahinmi was thought of as a defensive and shotblocking prospect. He lands in Austin and becomes an offensive prospect who plays little to no defense and shows little in the way of rebounding or blocking shots. In fact, a lot of Mahinmi's flaws are the same flaws that led the Spurs to trading Luis Scola (lack of rebounding, shotblocking and shooting and an over-reliance on low post play).

Mahinmi got these offensive moves by working hard with Spurs staff. Spurs staff wouldn't work these points with Mahinmi if they weren't interested in him becoming a better offensive player.
For the rest, Mahinmi isn't a that bad rebounder (look at Amir Johnson numbers) and he needs to learn how to defend without fouling too much. Mahinmi, unlike Scola, has the upside to be a defensive force.




And while it's true that Elson sucks (who woulda thunk it :rolleyes), he's not a completely dispensable part at this time.

I agree that Spurs need Elson but if Spurs dump him, they could sign a vet PF/C (Jackie Butler is still a FA :) ).



And while Holt has paid the tax in the past, the Spurs were tip toeing that line blatantly until Stoudamire became available. I don't think the tip toeing was on accident, I think the Spurs really planned on staying under the threshold until Stoudamire fell into their laps.

Last year, Spurs decided to go over the tax by not trading James White.
It's possible that Spurs decide to stay over the tax by keeping Mahinmi. Mahinmi seems to be a better project than White.
Spurs attitude towards the luxury tax is weird. Other teams close to the threshold really try to go under and it seems that Spurs almost don't care(see last year).
To me, Spurs attitude towards the luxury tax is : "If we can be under the threshold, it's fine but we won't sacrifice something basketball related to go under it."
Spurs have only trading disgruntled players (Eric Williams, Jackie Butler and Beno Udrih) or players with bad contracts (Rasho, Malik and almost Barry) to save money.



I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend there aren't signs pointing to his days potentially being numbered.

And there are also sign pointing that Spurs like him and want to keep him. I think that these signs are bigger than signs to a salary dump.

[mountainballer]

And really, I don't get why it's hard to believe that Mahinmi is the Spur most likely on the chopping block.

it's not hard to belive, in fact I think you are absolutly right.
and it might not have anything to do with Ian's development, attitude or potential.
Spurs do have a nice chance to land a decent player, if they tie up a package most teams, that are rebuilding and therefore willing to sacrifice a legit nba player, are looking for:

cap relieve (expiring contracts)
picks
young talents on cheap rookie contracts.

we've heard this from almost every GM in the league.

not that I would call Ian exactly what most GM would think about, when talking about young talent, but he is the only Spurs player who could be ranked in this category.
Spurs may be somehow disappointed by his defensive work, but for sure other teams are more attracted by a player, who is no.7 in points per minutes, no.7 in efficiency and is leading the D-league in FG%.
of course, Ian still doesn't have the value of a lottery pick, but other teams might see him as valueable as his former pick no. was. so he might have some value as a teaser. not great but also not totally worthless.
I have no doubt that the Spurs will include Ian in a package, if that's what is necessary to get a deal done. he might develope into a useful role player for the Spurs one day, but it's rediculous to think the Spurs see him as a corenerstone of the franchise in the future.

the trade the Spurs might do will likley be something in the 2005-Nazr trade category. Spurs then sacrificed two 1st rounders.
a compareable trade would be (for example): Barry plus Ian plus pick (maybe a 2nd rounder is enough) for Jeff Foster.
would the Spurs do such a trade?
I bet they will.
it would get them under the lux tax threshold and land them a veteran, who would help in areas where they currently struggle.
(don't know if Indy would do it, but there are some nice points for them. if they think they are out of the PO race anyhow, they will do something like this)

[TDMVPDPOY]

im willing to sacrifice ian, instead of splitter