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02-07-2008, 05:38 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/marty_burns/02/07/west.rankings/index.html
The pecking order
Ranking all the West's contenders after two big deals
Posted: Thursday February 7, 2008 3:47PM; Updated: Thursday February 7, 2008 4:04PM
Shaq's return to the West doesn't change the fact that the Spurs remain the team to beat in the loaded conference.
So, Shaquille O'Neal, you're back in the West now? Bet you're just thrilled you get to face your old Lakers team and a certain You Know Who four times a year. And that doesn't count any potential playoff series against them (somewhere David Stern is drooling).
At any rate, Shaq, not much has changed out West since you left. It's still loaded with great frontcourt players -- Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Carlos Boozer and David West, to name just a few. In other words, you had better bring your "A" game, big fella.
So what are your chances of getting that fifth ring? Well, it depends in part on you -- and whether you can stay healthy and find a way to blend into the Suns' high-octane offense. It also will come down in large part to matchups. (Think Dallas drawing Golden State in the first round last year.)
Anyway, Shaq, to help you get a read on your new old conference, we've put together a little crib sheet of how the race looks on paper to us. Keep in mind, the race is extremely close (through Wednesday, the top 10 teams were separated by 5 ½ games) and just about any team could wind up coming out of the pack. This is just how we view each team's chances to reach the NBA Finals. Feel free to pack it in your suitcase with your South Beach duds and size-22 sneakers:
1. San Antonio Spurs
Don't be fooled by their lackluster (at least for them) 31-16 record. They do this every season. The defending champs know how to pace themselves. They still own the West's best trio in Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. They still have the game's best big man in Duncan, a proven coach in Gregg Popovich, a stout defense (albeit one that has not played up to championship standards so far this season) and the ability to play both up-tempo and in the half court. The biggest questions for them are whether Ginobili and Parker -- who have battled ailments all season -- can stay healthy, and whether aging role players Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Robert Horry have enough left in the tank for one more run.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The addition of Gasol has vaulted them into this position. The 7-foot Spaniard gives L.A. an All-Star-caliber threesome (along with Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom) to match the Spurs' and Suns'. Gasol's ability to play in the post and draw double teams will be huge, and he will take pressure off young Andrew Bynum in the middle. When the game slows down in the playoffs, the Lakers will be able to put a tall lineup on the floor with the 7-footers Bynum and Gasol, the 6-10 Odom, the 6-6 Bryant and the 6-2 Derek Fisher. But, most of all, the Lakers have Kobe. He's going to be so hyped to carry them to the Finals after the past few years. Along with coach Phil Jackson, it's enough to get the Lakers back to the top.
3. Dallas Mavericks
It's easy to dismiss these guys after last year's playoff debacle against the Warriors (and their collapse against the Heat in the 2006 Finals). It's also true that they already have lost as many games (15) as they did all last season. But, like the Spurs, they could be pacing themselves. Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry give them a formidable trio, and Devin Harris reminds some of San Antonio's Parker with his ability to get in the lane off the dribble. The key for the Mavs will be whether they can get the post play they need in the playoffs. Nowitzki was not able to deliver against Golden State a year ago. The reigning MVP will need to provide more of that dimension, or coach Avery Johnson will have to come up with some other plan (like maybe acquiring Jason Kidd and playing a more up-tempo style) if the Mavs are going to go all the way.
4. Phoenix Suns
Regardless of what you think about the Shaq trade -- and the wisdom of breaking up a team that was already close -- the Suns still have to be considered serious contenders. In fact, one betting Web site now has them at 2-to-1 (up from 5-2) to win the NBA crown. It's just that Phoenix is now much more of a wild card. It could go up. It could go down. The Suns are going to miss Shawn Marion at both ends. But if Shaq stays in uniform and finds a way to shore up their half-court defense against the likes of Duncan, Nowitzki, Boozer and Yao Ming, they might actually be more equipped for a postseason run. However, if Shaq can't be more than just a big body, or if he is in a suit on the bench come playoff time, Phoenix is toast.
The pecking order (cont.)
Posted: Thursday February 7, 2008 3:47PM; Updated: Thursday February 7, 2008 4:04PM
5. Utah Jazz
After a so-so start, All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer and the Jazz have caught fire.
AP
MAILBAG
Marty Burns will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag.
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The NBA's hottest team won its 10th consecutive game Wednesday to climb within 2½ games of West-leading Phoenix. With Deron Williams, Boozer and Mehmet Okur, they have the outside-inside combo to match up with any team. Andrei Kirilenko can be a force when his head is on right. They also have that Jerry Sloan tough-as-nails mentality. It seemed like they came up with every loose ball and made every big play in the fourth quarter of their playoffs series wins over the Rockets and Warriors last year en route to the conference finals. The addition of Kyle Korver, meanwhile, gives them an outside shooter now to spread the floor. But Utah is not a great defensive team, and it struggles mightily on the road. Without home-court advantage in the later rounds, it's hard to see the Jazz getting far.
6. Golden State Warriors
Like the Suns in past years, they don't rebound or defend well enough to go all the way. Still, they are a dangerous team that nobody will want to face in the playoffs. Baron Davis is capable of taking over a game with his ability to muscle his way into the lane or shoot from downtown. Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Monta Ellis, Matt Barnes, Andris Biedrins (and perhaps newcomer Chris Webber) all are capable of big nights. Don Nelson is an experienced hand who knows how to make adjustments. Throw in the confidence they gained from last year's upset of the Mavs, and it's no stretch to see them pulling off another surprise or two in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Hornets
If you're looking for a dark horse, this is your team. Coming off an injury-ravaged 39-43 season a year ago, the Hornets weren't expected to make much noise this year. But Chris Paul and Co. have been one of the league's big surprises, racking up a 33-15 record to tie Dallas for the Midwest Division lead. Paul has been sensational at point guard, while West is a near 20-10 guy at power forward who just earned his first All-Star berth. Tyson Chandler's continued emergence as a rebounder/shot-blocker in the middle and Peja Stojakovic's return to health also have been keys to the Hornets' surge. New Orleans has the overall balance to make a serious run, but its core is still young and inexperienced in the ways of the postseason.
8. Houston Rockets
Picked by many to be a serious title contender, they got off to a poor start (15-16 through December) under new coach Rick Adelman. But injuries to Tracy McGrady and a rough early schedule probably had more to do with it than anything else. McGrady is now back in the lineup, albeit with a sore knee, and Houston has won eight of nine to rekindle some of those preseason expectations. With T-Mac and Yao, the Rockets certainly can't be counted out. The schedule is about to turn favorable as well, so they should continue to make up ground in the next two months. But Houston still doesn't have a quality point guard to match up with the likes of Nash, Parker, Paul and Williams. That weakness, combined with McGrady's chronic knee and back problems, makes the Rockets an iffy proposition to make the playoffs let alone contend for the conference title.
9. Denver Nuggets
Carmelo Anthony. Allen Iverson. Kenyon Martin. Marcus Camby. The Nuggets certainly have the big-name players to rival any team in the West. They also have a veteran coach in George Karl to manage all the egos. But Denver has been up and down the past two seasons, and that's not likely to change. The Nuggets just don't care enough about defense. They also don't have a point guard to match up against all those elite QBs in the West. Furthermore, they never get to establish any continuity in the rotation because they have players in and out of the lineup all the time with injuries. Now if they could somehow get Kidd ...
10. Portland Trail Blazers
The NBA's youngest team, they have shocked the league with their poise and teamwork en route to a 28-20 record. Brandon Roy's emergence as a leader has enabled them to play with anybody, as proved by a 13-game winning streak in December. But the Blazers are 6-7 in their last 13 games and currently sit out of the playoff picture. Just making it to the postseason would represent a major accomplishment and step forward for their future, especially with injured top pick Greg Oden slated to join them next season.
The pecking order
Ranking all the West's contenders after two big deals
Posted: Thursday February 7, 2008 3:47PM; Updated: Thursday February 7, 2008 4:04PM
Shaq's return to the West doesn't change the fact that the Spurs remain the team to beat in the loaded conference.
So, Shaquille O'Neal, you're back in the West now? Bet you're just thrilled you get to face your old Lakers team and a certain You Know Who four times a year. And that doesn't count any potential playoff series against them (somewhere David Stern is drooling).
At any rate, Shaq, not much has changed out West since you left. It's still loaded with great frontcourt players -- Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Carlos Boozer and David West, to name just a few. In other words, you had better bring your "A" game, big fella.
So what are your chances of getting that fifth ring? Well, it depends in part on you -- and whether you can stay healthy and find a way to blend into the Suns' high-octane offense. It also will come down in large part to matchups. (Think Dallas drawing Golden State in the first round last year.)
Anyway, Shaq, to help you get a read on your new old conference, we've put together a little crib sheet of how the race looks on paper to us. Keep in mind, the race is extremely close (through Wednesday, the top 10 teams were separated by 5 ½ games) and just about any team could wind up coming out of the pack. This is just how we view each team's chances to reach the NBA Finals. Feel free to pack it in your suitcase with your South Beach duds and size-22 sneakers:
1. San Antonio Spurs
Don't be fooled by their lackluster (at least for them) 31-16 record. They do this every season. The defending champs know how to pace themselves. They still own the West's best trio in Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. They still have the game's best big man in Duncan, a proven coach in Gregg Popovich, a stout defense (albeit one that has not played up to championship standards so far this season) and the ability to play both up-tempo and in the half court. The biggest questions for them are whether Ginobili and Parker -- who have battled ailments all season -- can stay healthy, and whether aging role players Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Robert Horry have enough left in the tank for one more run.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The addition of Gasol has vaulted them into this position. The 7-foot Spaniard gives L.A. an All-Star-caliber threesome (along with Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom) to match the Spurs' and Suns'. Gasol's ability to play in the post and draw double teams will be huge, and he will take pressure off young Andrew Bynum in the middle. When the game slows down in the playoffs, the Lakers will be able to put a tall lineup on the floor with the 7-footers Bynum and Gasol, the 6-10 Odom, the 6-6 Bryant and the 6-2 Derek Fisher. But, most of all, the Lakers have Kobe. He's going to be so hyped to carry them to the Finals after the past few years. Along with coach Phil Jackson, it's enough to get the Lakers back to the top.
3. Dallas Mavericks
It's easy to dismiss these guys after last year's playoff debacle against the Warriors (and their collapse against the Heat in the 2006 Finals). It's also true that they already have lost as many games (15) as they did all last season. But, like the Spurs, they could be pacing themselves. Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry give them a formidable trio, and Devin Harris reminds some of San Antonio's Parker with his ability to get in the lane off the dribble. The key for the Mavs will be whether they can get the post play they need in the playoffs. Nowitzki was not able to deliver against Golden State a year ago. The reigning MVP will need to provide more of that dimension, or coach Avery Johnson will have to come up with some other plan (like maybe acquiring Jason Kidd and playing a more up-tempo style) if the Mavs are going to go all the way.
4. Phoenix Suns
Regardless of what you think about the Shaq trade -- and the wisdom of breaking up a team that was already close -- the Suns still have to be considered serious contenders. In fact, one betting Web site now has them at 2-to-1 (up from 5-2) to win the NBA crown. It's just that Phoenix is now much more of a wild card. It could go up. It could go down. The Suns are going to miss Shawn Marion at both ends. But if Shaq stays in uniform and finds a way to shore up their half-court defense against the likes of Duncan, Nowitzki, Boozer and Yao Ming, they might actually be more equipped for a postseason run. However, if Shaq can't be more than just a big body, or if he is in a suit on the bench come playoff time, Phoenix is toast.
The pecking order (cont.)
Posted: Thursday February 7, 2008 3:47PM; Updated: Thursday February 7, 2008 4:04PM
5. Utah Jazz
After a so-so start, All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer and the Jazz have caught fire.
AP
MAILBAG
Marty Burns will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag.
Your name:
Your e-mail address:
Your home town:
Enter your question:
The NBA's hottest team won its 10th consecutive game Wednesday to climb within 2½ games of West-leading Phoenix. With Deron Williams, Boozer and Mehmet Okur, they have the outside-inside combo to match up with any team. Andrei Kirilenko can be a force when his head is on right. They also have that Jerry Sloan tough-as-nails mentality. It seemed like they came up with every loose ball and made every big play in the fourth quarter of their playoffs series wins over the Rockets and Warriors last year en route to the conference finals. The addition of Kyle Korver, meanwhile, gives them an outside shooter now to spread the floor. But Utah is not a great defensive team, and it struggles mightily on the road. Without home-court advantage in the later rounds, it's hard to see the Jazz getting far.
6. Golden State Warriors
Like the Suns in past years, they don't rebound or defend well enough to go all the way. Still, they are a dangerous team that nobody will want to face in the playoffs. Baron Davis is capable of taking over a game with his ability to muscle his way into the lane or shoot from downtown. Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Monta Ellis, Matt Barnes, Andris Biedrins (and perhaps newcomer Chris Webber) all are capable of big nights. Don Nelson is an experienced hand who knows how to make adjustments. Throw in the confidence they gained from last year's upset of the Mavs, and it's no stretch to see them pulling off another surprise or two in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Hornets
If you're looking for a dark horse, this is your team. Coming off an injury-ravaged 39-43 season a year ago, the Hornets weren't expected to make much noise this year. But Chris Paul and Co. have been one of the league's big surprises, racking up a 33-15 record to tie Dallas for the Midwest Division lead. Paul has been sensational at point guard, while West is a near 20-10 guy at power forward who just earned his first All-Star berth. Tyson Chandler's continued emergence as a rebounder/shot-blocker in the middle and Peja Stojakovic's return to health also have been keys to the Hornets' surge. New Orleans has the overall balance to make a serious run, but its core is still young and inexperienced in the ways of the postseason.
8. Houston Rockets
Picked by many to be a serious title contender, they got off to a poor start (15-16 through December) under new coach Rick Adelman. But injuries to Tracy McGrady and a rough early schedule probably had more to do with it than anything else. McGrady is now back in the lineup, albeit with a sore knee, and Houston has won eight of nine to rekindle some of those preseason expectations. With T-Mac and Yao, the Rockets certainly can't be counted out. The schedule is about to turn favorable as well, so they should continue to make up ground in the next two months. But Houston still doesn't have a quality point guard to match up with the likes of Nash, Parker, Paul and Williams. That weakness, combined with McGrady's chronic knee and back problems, makes the Rockets an iffy proposition to make the playoffs let alone contend for the conference title.
9. Denver Nuggets
Carmelo Anthony. Allen Iverson. Kenyon Martin. Marcus Camby. The Nuggets certainly have the big-name players to rival any team in the West. They also have a veteran coach in George Karl to manage all the egos. But Denver has been up and down the past two seasons, and that's not likely to change. The Nuggets just don't care enough about defense. They also don't have a point guard to match up against all those elite QBs in the West. Furthermore, they never get to establish any continuity in the rotation because they have players in and out of the lineup all the time with injuries. Now if they could somehow get Kidd ...
10. Portland Trail Blazers
The NBA's youngest team, they have shocked the league with their poise and teamwork en route to a 28-20 record. Brandon Roy's emergence as a leader has enabled them to play with anybody, as proved by a 13-game winning streak in December. But the Blazers are 6-7 in their last 13 games and currently sit out of the playoff picture. Just making it to the postseason would represent a major accomplishment and step forward for their future, especially with injured top pick Greg Oden slated to join them next season.