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boutons
01-06-2005, 03:47 PM
If Rick is right about 35 vs 39 MPG, then PHX's MPG:

AS 36.2
SM 39.4
SN 34.7
QR 37.3
JJ 39.1

... will poop out in April/May. We'll see...

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Buck Harvey: A fresh approach

Web Posted: 01/06/2005 12:00 AM CST


San Antonio Express-News

In one corner tonight is Jermaine O'Neal, fresh off a 55-point night.

In the other is the new-age role player, Tim Duncan, fresh off, well, being fresh.

O'Neal's Indiana Pacers coach, Rick Carlisle, marvels at his player's numbers. But Carlisle is wowed by Duncan's, too.

Specifically, Duncan's number of minutes.

"He's averaging only 34 minutes a game?" Carlisle asked Wednesday for confirmation, stunned at the magnitude of that figure.

Never has sitting so impressed.

Carlisle knows a few things about players who sit. O'Neal just recently returned after being suspended for his part in the Detroit fight, and then there's Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson. No one this season will sit as they do.

In other NBA corners, standing is still valued. Allen Iverson has had back-to-back games of 51 and 54 points, and Amare Stoudemire followed with 50.

"I think that's the tip of the iceberg," Stoudemire said then, and he appears to be right. On Tuesday, when O'Neal scored his league-high total and could have had even more, Kevin Garnett scored 47.

Duncan has had his own moments, including a 53-point night three years ago. But the franchise with players who have scored more than 60 (George Gervin) and 70 (David Robinson) has become the opposite. The Spurs share the ball the way Bob Stoops shares blame today, and Duncan's points are down even while the Spurs are 26-7.

Carlisle isn't surprised. He worked television during the 2003 Finals, when the Spurs beat the New Jersey Nets, and Carlisle put together a three-minute piece that detailed all the ways that Duncan can beat teams.

Among Carlisle's summations: Duncan is a throwback to Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, able to adjust on the fly to what is happening without an obsession to being the finisher.

"He's one of the ultimate weapons," Carlisle said. "Duncan is such a great threat and yet doesn't care if he scores."

Duncan likely cares when he has nights such as the one Sunday in Sacramento. Then, he went 6 for 17 in a loss.

Still, that is why Carlisle goes back to a former teammate, Bird, when looking for a comparison. It's about winning.

"What I've always thought is underrated about Duncan," Carlisle said, "is that he's one of the really vicious competitors in the league. It gets overlooked because he's such a nice guy on the outside. But he's a killer."

Duncan almost has killed himself in the process. His former Spurs teams relied on him to score 30, as well as do everything else, and now he can orchestrate the improved talent on this team and still win.

Carlisle then veered into something else, about how "another indicator of a well-conceived system is the average number of minutes of the best players." Carlisle said it's an ideal situation when players such as Duncan have to play only 37, 38 minutes.

Then Carlisle was told how much Duncan has been playing. The exact number is 34.6, and Carlisle was stunned.

"That's unheard of for a great player!" Carlisle said.

It's also unheard of when a Slovenian point guard replaces a French point guard, and a first-place NBA team keeps humming. The Spurs have been so deep and effective that Duncan has been able to pass and/or sit more than he ever has.

His minutes this season are a full four fewer than his career average. In 2001 he averaged 40.6, and this season the most he has played in any game is 40.

Don't be surprised if Duncan has to go longer tonight against O'Neal. But Carlisle says this isn't about one game.

"It's the cumulative," Carlisle said. "Every minute beyond 34 or 35 in the average are the ones that matter."

It doesn't seem like much. Is there really a difference between an average of 35 minutes and 39?

Carlisle says there is. He says those are the crucial minutes. They are played under exhaustion, when injuries are more likely, and for Duncan this means even more. Having spent the past two summers with the U.S. Olympic team, he could use time to recover.

"This is huge," Carlisle said. "What he is doing is keeping fuel on reserve. There's so much more in the tank for March and April."

In this corner?

Look closely. There's a chair.

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Hey, Buck, your melo-dramatic cheap-trick endings always really suck.