duncan228
02-20-2008, 04:48 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/sn/20080219/sp_sn/10boldpredictionsforthenbassecondhalf
By Nathaniel Friedman - For Sporting News
I don't believe in reasonable predictions. You know, the kind that might as well have involved two highly probable outcomes and a coin toss. No one needs a sportswriter to tell you that the San Antonio Spurs might win a championship, or that LeBron James could be this season's MVP.
What has NBA fans drooling over the second half of the season is just how hard it is to make predictions. On one hand, the powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns are basically starting their seasons over. On the other, the New Orleans Hornets, Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz most definitely are for real and will clamp down for legitimate playoff runs.
That said, I've decided to stick to my guns and make some bold -- highly unlikely, but not impossible -- predictions for the second half.
1. Golden State will make the playoffs
The Western Conference is an absolute behemoth. As the standings look, the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors are fighting for the last two playoff spots.
With Shaquille O'Neal in Phoenix, the Warriors are the lone outpost of small ball, like Cuba after the U.S.S.R. fell -- sorry, that Chris Webber trade doesn't do much for me. But the Warriors also have an ability to capitalize on momentum, the moment and raw emotion like no one else in this league. The Warriors will go all out this spring and just maybe give someone a scare in Round 1.
2. There will be more trades
Isn't there that saying, "The rich get richer and the poor get poorer"? You'd think that means the poor are getting screwed, but in NBA terms it's mutually beneficial. Put simply, it's a rebuilder's market.
As the league gets more top-heavy, franchises mired in the middle and at the bottom have a perfect excuse to start over: They can't compete. At the same time, they can offer up their last sliver of respectable talent for expiring contracts and players bound for the scrapheap.
That's why, before the Thursday trade deadline, I completely and totally expect the Kings' Ron Artest, the Grizzlies' Mike Miller, the Pacers' Jermaine O'Neal and the Bulls' Ben Wallace and Ben Gordon to be on the move.
3. Horford to be rookie of the year
The Sonics' Kevin Durant might one day rule the NBA, but right now he is hoisting up ill-advised 3s in an empty gym with no one around to help him improve.
The Hawks' Al Horford, on the other hand, is a key piece of a young team that likely will make the playoffs. He is the rock-solid big man the Hawks always gave needed to defend and rebound and is coming along on offense. I've never really bought the "MVPs need to make the playoffs" argument, but Horford is playing real basketball while Durant is not.
4. T-Wolves will start winning
If, as suggested above, rebuilding is the flip side of trade mania, the Minnesota Timberwolves are ahead of the curve. They also have a young stud in Al Jefferson and Randy Foye is coming back and, at least now, Sebastian Telfair playing like he belongs in the pros.
Every season, some young team comes together and racks up a few extra wins or at least becomes a tougher matchup. It's tough to make a case for the T-Wolves because they live in the Western Conference. But after seeing Gerald Green and Rashad McCants in the dunk contest last weekend, I believe anything is possible.
5. Mike Brown will be fired
The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting worse and worse. The rest of the NBA is getting better and better. The Cavs' front office has screwed up at pretty much every turn, and now the NBA's best player must be thinking about life beyond Cleveland. Like maybe in Brooklyn, where that cap space being cleared practically has James' name on it.
Why aren't the Cavs in on any of the big trade powwows? Simple: They don't have any tradable assets. Everyone is overpaid, under contract for too long, or, as in the case of Drew Gooden, offers nothing to get other teams stoked.
And so, in a shrewd attempt to keep James' eye from wandering, coach Mike Brown will be fired -- probably as soon as the Cavs are eliminated from the playoffs.
James is playing strictly for regional and personal pride; he's not about to slack off. But with the team powerless to get him real help, this is the best it can do to publicly shake up a sinking ship.
6. Celtics won't win the East
Call it a hunch, or outright bias, but I'm still worried about everyone outside the Celtics' Big Three. And I'm not convinced a trade for the Clippers' Sam Cassell would rectify the situation. The Detroit Pistons have experience, depth and a youthful bench. Plus let's not forget that after last spring's humiliation, Detroit is on a mission.
7. Howard will rise even higher
It is hard to remember now, but once upon a time, winning the dunk contest raised a player's reputation around the league and made him into an important part of the NBA landscape. Howard had all those things already, but with that performance he has become the toast of the league.
Howard is now officially -- in the eyes of every American man, woman and child -- the ninth wonder of the world, the big man who can fly, Shaquille O'Neal possessed by the spirit of Michael Jordan.
Howard's celebrity stock has risen, and I expect his game to become even more insane. Swagger through the roof, every game played like he is proving himself larger-than-life. That's how Shaq Diesel was at Howard's age, and it's time his successor learned how "distractions" can fuel on-court improvements.
8. Arenas will return -- and matter
Earlier in the season, there was some talk about whether the Washington Wizards were better without Arenas. That had to sting Mr. Thin Skin, who has been rehabbing from micro-fracture surgery.
No way he is back at full speed, but Arenas has an opportunity to prove doubters wrong: To concentrate on those traditional point guard aspects of the game he sometimes had neglected.
Arenas' return might be ugly sometimes, and it won't get the Wizards any further in the playoffs, but it should be a pretty darn intriguing sideshow.
9. Kings won't go into a freefall
The Sacramento Kings sit at 23-28, which in the Eastern Conference would put them near a playoff spot. In the West, it's sub-ordinary. Shoving Mike Bibby and Artest out the door should clear the way for the team's young nucleus of Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia to take charge.
The Kings somehow have rebuilt without taking down the old decorations, getting a few steps past ground zero without severing ties with the past. That time, my friends, is now.
10. People will watch the NBA
The flurry of trades has brought the league the best kind of attention: Wonderment. There is a lot to be discovered and sorted out, and a lot of quality teams out West for whom every game will directly affect their playoffs prospects. That's reason enough to tune in well in advance of April.
By Nathaniel Friedman - For Sporting News
I don't believe in reasonable predictions. You know, the kind that might as well have involved two highly probable outcomes and a coin toss. No one needs a sportswriter to tell you that the San Antonio Spurs might win a championship, or that LeBron James could be this season's MVP.
What has NBA fans drooling over the second half of the season is just how hard it is to make predictions. On one hand, the powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns are basically starting their seasons over. On the other, the New Orleans Hornets, Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz most definitely are for real and will clamp down for legitimate playoff runs.
That said, I've decided to stick to my guns and make some bold -- highly unlikely, but not impossible -- predictions for the second half.
1. Golden State will make the playoffs
The Western Conference is an absolute behemoth. As the standings look, the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors are fighting for the last two playoff spots.
With Shaquille O'Neal in Phoenix, the Warriors are the lone outpost of small ball, like Cuba after the U.S.S.R. fell -- sorry, that Chris Webber trade doesn't do much for me. But the Warriors also have an ability to capitalize on momentum, the moment and raw emotion like no one else in this league. The Warriors will go all out this spring and just maybe give someone a scare in Round 1.
2. There will be more trades
Isn't there that saying, "The rich get richer and the poor get poorer"? You'd think that means the poor are getting screwed, but in NBA terms it's mutually beneficial. Put simply, it's a rebuilder's market.
As the league gets more top-heavy, franchises mired in the middle and at the bottom have a perfect excuse to start over: They can't compete. At the same time, they can offer up their last sliver of respectable talent for expiring contracts and players bound for the scrapheap.
That's why, before the Thursday trade deadline, I completely and totally expect the Kings' Ron Artest, the Grizzlies' Mike Miller, the Pacers' Jermaine O'Neal and the Bulls' Ben Wallace and Ben Gordon to be on the move.
3. Horford to be rookie of the year
The Sonics' Kevin Durant might one day rule the NBA, but right now he is hoisting up ill-advised 3s in an empty gym with no one around to help him improve.
The Hawks' Al Horford, on the other hand, is a key piece of a young team that likely will make the playoffs. He is the rock-solid big man the Hawks always gave needed to defend and rebound and is coming along on offense. I've never really bought the "MVPs need to make the playoffs" argument, but Horford is playing real basketball while Durant is not.
4. T-Wolves will start winning
If, as suggested above, rebuilding is the flip side of trade mania, the Minnesota Timberwolves are ahead of the curve. They also have a young stud in Al Jefferson and Randy Foye is coming back and, at least now, Sebastian Telfair playing like he belongs in the pros.
Every season, some young team comes together and racks up a few extra wins or at least becomes a tougher matchup. It's tough to make a case for the T-Wolves because they live in the Western Conference. But after seeing Gerald Green and Rashad McCants in the dunk contest last weekend, I believe anything is possible.
5. Mike Brown will be fired
The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting worse and worse. The rest of the NBA is getting better and better. The Cavs' front office has screwed up at pretty much every turn, and now the NBA's best player must be thinking about life beyond Cleveland. Like maybe in Brooklyn, where that cap space being cleared practically has James' name on it.
Why aren't the Cavs in on any of the big trade powwows? Simple: They don't have any tradable assets. Everyone is overpaid, under contract for too long, or, as in the case of Drew Gooden, offers nothing to get other teams stoked.
And so, in a shrewd attempt to keep James' eye from wandering, coach Mike Brown will be fired -- probably as soon as the Cavs are eliminated from the playoffs.
James is playing strictly for regional and personal pride; he's not about to slack off. But with the team powerless to get him real help, this is the best it can do to publicly shake up a sinking ship.
6. Celtics won't win the East
Call it a hunch, or outright bias, but I'm still worried about everyone outside the Celtics' Big Three. And I'm not convinced a trade for the Clippers' Sam Cassell would rectify the situation. The Detroit Pistons have experience, depth and a youthful bench. Plus let's not forget that after last spring's humiliation, Detroit is on a mission.
7. Howard will rise even higher
It is hard to remember now, but once upon a time, winning the dunk contest raised a player's reputation around the league and made him into an important part of the NBA landscape. Howard had all those things already, but with that performance he has become the toast of the league.
Howard is now officially -- in the eyes of every American man, woman and child -- the ninth wonder of the world, the big man who can fly, Shaquille O'Neal possessed by the spirit of Michael Jordan.
Howard's celebrity stock has risen, and I expect his game to become even more insane. Swagger through the roof, every game played like he is proving himself larger-than-life. That's how Shaq Diesel was at Howard's age, and it's time his successor learned how "distractions" can fuel on-court improvements.
8. Arenas will return -- and matter
Earlier in the season, there was some talk about whether the Washington Wizards were better without Arenas. That had to sting Mr. Thin Skin, who has been rehabbing from micro-fracture surgery.
No way he is back at full speed, but Arenas has an opportunity to prove doubters wrong: To concentrate on those traditional point guard aspects of the game he sometimes had neglected.
Arenas' return might be ugly sometimes, and it won't get the Wizards any further in the playoffs, but it should be a pretty darn intriguing sideshow.
9. Kings won't go into a freefall
The Sacramento Kings sit at 23-28, which in the Eastern Conference would put them near a playoff spot. In the West, it's sub-ordinary. Shoving Mike Bibby and Artest out the door should clear the way for the team's young nucleus of Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia to take charge.
The Kings somehow have rebuilt without taking down the old decorations, getting a few steps past ground zero without severing ties with the past. That time, my friends, is now.
10. People will watch the NBA
The flurry of trades has brought the league the best kind of attention: Wonderment. There is a lot to be discovered and sorted out, and a lot of quality teams out West for whom every game will directly affect their playoffs prospects. That's reason enough to tune in well in advance of April.