KoriEllis
09-23-2004, 06:47 AM
NBA fact or fiction?
A guide to the perceptions and realities of the league
By RICK BONNELL
Charlotte Observer
www.myrtlebeachonline.com...733140.htm (http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/sports/basketball/9733140.htm)
The Bobcats open their first training camp next month, bringing the NBA back to Charlotte after a two-season absence. Some things have changed and some have stayed the same since the Hornets exited for New Orleans.
Observer NBA writer Rick Bonnell separates fact from fiction concerning the general state of the league:
FICTION: The NBA entices high school players to skip college and turn pro.
The way some North Carolina and Duke fans would portray it, NBA operatives skulked around the prep All-America games, waving stacks of hundred-dollar bills at J.R. Smith and Shaun Livingston until they renounced their college eligibility.
College fans don't distinguish very well between evaluation and recruitment. Scouts show up at high school games because they must, covering themselves in case these kids turn pro. Most scouts I know would love it if the NBA age limit rose from 18 to 20; it would lessen their workload and lower the risk of drafting a bust.
I believe Commissioner David Stern when he says he'd prefer the age limit be 20. But Stern doesn't have unilateral power to make that change. He needs the cooperation of the players union, and union head Billy Hunter is reluctant to make that move.
FACT: With each new season, the NBA is less about skill and more about athleticism.
There's no question players now enter the NBA with fundamentals inferior to those of players 10 years ago.
However, this trend is often overstated. Every time I hear someone say, "All they can do is dunk," I wonder why baseball players aren't dismissed as, "All they do is hit home runs."
Basketball was a more skills-intensive game when the Hornets entered the NBA in 1988. But baseball was different then, too. I liked that sport better when the bunt and the steal were factors, and every game didn't feel like a home-run derby.
My point: Sports evolve, and typically when athletes get bigger and stronger, they spend less time learning subtle skills.
MORE FICTION
Only big-market franchises and Internet billionaires can afford to chase NBA titles.
Actually, the recent track record of the league's free-spenders -- New York, Dallas and Portland -- suggests just the opposite: That a hollow imitation of George Steinbrenner doesn't guarantee NBA success.
The Knicks spent about $92 million last season to go 39-43. Dallas owner Mark Cuban's payroll of about $78 million produced a 52-30 record, but the Mavericks still haven't reached the Finals. Portland owner Paul Allen is trimming his bloated payroll, though that takes years to achieve in a world of guaranteed contracts.
San Antonio and Detroit show you can build strong teams without crazy spending. The Pistons won a title with a $53 million payroll and the Spurs contended at $47 million, and will continue contending as long as Tim Duncan is around.
Drafts are so weak now, there's no reason to hold a second round.
I wouldn't say drafts are weaker, so much as they're less predictable. The influx of teenagers and foreign players makes it harder to project an accurate pecking order. That means there will be more busts among lottery picks and more finds outside the first round.
How else do you explain Carlos Boozer and Gilbert Arenas lasting into the second round and All-Star Brad Miller not being drafted at all?
A high second-round pick is actually a bargain these days; a team gets a player of marginal first-round ability without the obligation of a three-year guaranteed contract.
The United States no longer produces the best players.
It was embarrassing for Team USA not to win the gold medal at the Athens Games. This should raise tough questions about how the team is chosen, trained and coached, in preparation for the next Olympics.
However, it's ridiculous to suggest the talent pool has run dry in the United States. That was a second- or third-string group in Athens, thrown together in a last-minute fashion. Had the best starting five -- Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant -- shown up, Team USA would have swept through the field.
Coaching matters little in building an NBA winner.
The NBA is a player's league, but that doesn't mean coaching is irrelevant. Phil Jackson never got the credit he deserved for keeping the egos on the Lakers and Bulls from imploding. Likewise, Larry Brown gave the Detroit Pistons that last bump up from a good team to a champion.
Anyone who questions the value of coaching in the NBA needs to consider the Utah Jazz last season. With Karl Malone and John Stockton gone, the Jazz probably had the least talent in the league. Jerry Sloan organized those spare parts into a system and prodded them to hustle and execute. The result: The Jazz finished 42-40, one victory short of a playoff berth, and five victories short of the last Malone-Stockton team.
MORE FACTS
Superstars count for more in the NBA than in any other sport.
I once asked Commissioner David Stern why the NBA still needed a draft lottery, since rookies are younger and generally have less immediate value than a decade ago. Why not just award the worst team the best pick?
Stern replied that every so often a draft prospect emerges with such a dramatic and predictable impact that the NBA can't afford even the perception that a team would lose intentionally to acquire his rights.
Think of it this way: Tim Duncan or a healthy Shaquille O'Neal affects a basketball team's fortunes more than Barry Bonds can in baseball or Peyton Manning can in football. Basketball is a five-on-five sport, and a great center essentially counts as two players.
NBA stars, by and large, have little or no loyalty to their teams.
Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis and Vince Carter form the core of a troubling trend -- NBA stars who get maximum contracts, then later demand trades off the teams that made them so rich.
In a world that is fair, those three either wouldn't have signed their guaranteed mega-contracts, or would have committed to fixing the messes their teams were in.
Instead, McGrady demanded and received a trade from Orlando to Houston. Davis and Carter similarly want out of New Orleans and Toronto, respectively.
Every NBA player doesn't get to make all the money and play on a contender every season. What do they think this is, the New York Yankees?
The plodding NBA season squanders much of the sport's natural drama.
The NBA playoffs never will be as exciting as the Super Bowl or the NCAA tournament. But I could make the season more compelling:
First, reduce the regular season from 82 games to 50 or 60. Second, either eliminate the first round of the playoffs or return to a best-of-5 format in the first round.
The 50-game season right after the lockout was intriguing, and I don't believe any fan felt shortchanged by its length. The players were fresher, making the playoffs better.
Sixteen teams are too many to make the playoffs, and last season provided great evidence of why: The last two teams to qualify -- New York and Boston -- were a combined seven games below .500. If the NBA must have a 16-team playoff draw, then return to best-of-5 in the first round to leave some hope of an upset.
The NBA never would consider shortening the season or the playoffs. That would reduce revenue, and there's no way that's happening, regardless of the appeal to fans.
No matter what the system, some NBA teams can't help but overspend.
I keep hearing about the great "chilling effect" of the NBA's luxury-tax system -- how general managers are scared to sign free agents because those deals might put their teams in "tax-paying territory."
Then, this summer, three fairly obscure players -- Adonal Foyle, Derek Fisher and Brian Cardinal -- signed contracts that reportedly add up to more than $125 million. Austerity? I don't think so.
The teams that signed these guys -- Golden State for Foyle and Fisher, Memphis for Cardinal -- have been bad more than they've been good the past five seasons. So maybe those teams' owners are sicker of losing games than they're afraid of losing money.
Sports are different from other businesses because they're so public; you can check the league standings every day to see who is succeeding and failing. Owners generally have big egos and hate being embarrassed. So they'll spend on their teams in ways they wouldn't consider spending on their other businesses.
A guide to the perceptions and realities of the league
By RICK BONNELL
Charlotte Observer
www.myrtlebeachonline.com...733140.htm (http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/sports/basketball/9733140.htm)
The Bobcats open their first training camp next month, bringing the NBA back to Charlotte after a two-season absence. Some things have changed and some have stayed the same since the Hornets exited for New Orleans.
Observer NBA writer Rick Bonnell separates fact from fiction concerning the general state of the league:
FICTION: The NBA entices high school players to skip college and turn pro.
The way some North Carolina and Duke fans would portray it, NBA operatives skulked around the prep All-America games, waving stacks of hundred-dollar bills at J.R. Smith and Shaun Livingston until they renounced their college eligibility.
College fans don't distinguish very well between evaluation and recruitment. Scouts show up at high school games because they must, covering themselves in case these kids turn pro. Most scouts I know would love it if the NBA age limit rose from 18 to 20; it would lessen their workload and lower the risk of drafting a bust.
I believe Commissioner David Stern when he says he'd prefer the age limit be 20. But Stern doesn't have unilateral power to make that change. He needs the cooperation of the players union, and union head Billy Hunter is reluctant to make that move.
FACT: With each new season, the NBA is less about skill and more about athleticism.
There's no question players now enter the NBA with fundamentals inferior to those of players 10 years ago.
However, this trend is often overstated. Every time I hear someone say, "All they can do is dunk," I wonder why baseball players aren't dismissed as, "All they do is hit home runs."
Basketball was a more skills-intensive game when the Hornets entered the NBA in 1988. But baseball was different then, too. I liked that sport better when the bunt and the steal were factors, and every game didn't feel like a home-run derby.
My point: Sports evolve, and typically when athletes get bigger and stronger, they spend less time learning subtle skills.
MORE FICTION
Only big-market franchises and Internet billionaires can afford to chase NBA titles.
Actually, the recent track record of the league's free-spenders -- New York, Dallas and Portland -- suggests just the opposite: That a hollow imitation of George Steinbrenner doesn't guarantee NBA success.
The Knicks spent about $92 million last season to go 39-43. Dallas owner Mark Cuban's payroll of about $78 million produced a 52-30 record, but the Mavericks still haven't reached the Finals. Portland owner Paul Allen is trimming his bloated payroll, though that takes years to achieve in a world of guaranteed contracts.
San Antonio and Detroit show you can build strong teams without crazy spending. The Pistons won a title with a $53 million payroll and the Spurs contended at $47 million, and will continue contending as long as Tim Duncan is around.
Drafts are so weak now, there's no reason to hold a second round.
I wouldn't say drafts are weaker, so much as they're less predictable. The influx of teenagers and foreign players makes it harder to project an accurate pecking order. That means there will be more busts among lottery picks and more finds outside the first round.
How else do you explain Carlos Boozer and Gilbert Arenas lasting into the second round and All-Star Brad Miller not being drafted at all?
A high second-round pick is actually a bargain these days; a team gets a player of marginal first-round ability without the obligation of a three-year guaranteed contract.
The United States no longer produces the best players.
It was embarrassing for Team USA not to win the gold medal at the Athens Games. This should raise tough questions about how the team is chosen, trained and coached, in preparation for the next Olympics.
However, it's ridiculous to suggest the talent pool has run dry in the United States. That was a second- or third-string group in Athens, thrown together in a last-minute fashion. Had the best starting five -- Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant -- shown up, Team USA would have swept through the field.
Coaching matters little in building an NBA winner.
The NBA is a player's league, but that doesn't mean coaching is irrelevant. Phil Jackson never got the credit he deserved for keeping the egos on the Lakers and Bulls from imploding. Likewise, Larry Brown gave the Detroit Pistons that last bump up from a good team to a champion.
Anyone who questions the value of coaching in the NBA needs to consider the Utah Jazz last season. With Karl Malone and John Stockton gone, the Jazz probably had the least talent in the league. Jerry Sloan organized those spare parts into a system and prodded them to hustle and execute. The result: The Jazz finished 42-40, one victory short of a playoff berth, and five victories short of the last Malone-Stockton team.
MORE FACTS
Superstars count for more in the NBA than in any other sport.
I once asked Commissioner David Stern why the NBA still needed a draft lottery, since rookies are younger and generally have less immediate value than a decade ago. Why not just award the worst team the best pick?
Stern replied that every so often a draft prospect emerges with such a dramatic and predictable impact that the NBA can't afford even the perception that a team would lose intentionally to acquire his rights.
Think of it this way: Tim Duncan or a healthy Shaquille O'Neal affects a basketball team's fortunes more than Barry Bonds can in baseball or Peyton Manning can in football. Basketball is a five-on-five sport, and a great center essentially counts as two players.
NBA stars, by and large, have little or no loyalty to their teams.
Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis and Vince Carter form the core of a troubling trend -- NBA stars who get maximum contracts, then later demand trades off the teams that made them so rich.
In a world that is fair, those three either wouldn't have signed their guaranteed mega-contracts, or would have committed to fixing the messes their teams were in.
Instead, McGrady demanded and received a trade from Orlando to Houston. Davis and Carter similarly want out of New Orleans and Toronto, respectively.
Every NBA player doesn't get to make all the money and play on a contender every season. What do they think this is, the New York Yankees?
The plodding NBA season squanders much of the sport's natural drama.
The NBA playoffs never will be as exciting as the Super Bowl or the NCAA tournament. But I could make the season more compelling:
First, reduce the regular season from 82 games to 50 or 60. Second, either eliminate the first round of the playoffs or return to a best-of-5 format in the first round.
The 50-game season right after the lockout was intriguing, and I don't believe any fan felt shortchanged by its length. The players were fresher, making the playoffs better.
Sixteen teams are too many to make the playoffs, and last season provided great evidence of why: The last two teams to qualify -- New York and Boston -- were a combined seven games below .500. If the NBA must have a 16-team playoff draw, then return to best-of-5 in the first round to leave some hope of an upset.
The NBA never would consider shortening the season or the playoffs. That would reduce revenue, and there's no way that's happening, regardless of the appeal to fans.
No matter what the system, some NBA teams can't help but overspend.
I keep hearing about the great "chilling effect" of the NBA's luxury-tax system -- how general managers are scared to sign free agents because those deals might put their teams in "tax-paying territory."
Then, this summer, three fairly obscure players -- Adonal Foyle, Derek Fisher and Brian Cardinal -- signed contracts that reportedly add up to more than $125 million. Austerity? I don't think so.
The teams that signed these guys -- Golden State for Foyle and Fisher, Memphis for Cardinal -- have been bad more than they've been good the past five seasons. So maybe those teams' owners are sicker of losing games than they're afraid of losing money.
Sports are different from other businesses because they're so public; you can check the league standings every day to see who is succeeding and failing. Owners generally have big egos and hate being embarrassed. So they'll spend on their teams in ways they wouldn't consider spending on their other businesses.