Kent_in_Atlanta
02-28-2008, 04:34 PM
Forgive me if this has already been posted, but I didn't see it here.
John Hollinger: Manu as The Man in San Antonio (http//insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Storylines-080228a&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dStorylines-080228a)
The defending champion Spurs are up to their usual tricks, lying in the weeds for half a season only to make a late run. Once again they're on top of the Southwest division, and nobody will be surprised to see them make another deep playoff run.
However, one thing has changed: the team's offensive focal point. For years, the Spurs' primary weapon has been Tim Duncan and, to a lesser extent, Tony Parker. Not many players in the league can hang with Ginobili's production.
Not anymore. This season, it's the Manu Ginobili show. The sneaky southpaw leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game, but even that understates things. Ginobili's usage rate this season has climbed all the way to 28.0, the sixth-highest figure in the league.
This has escaped people's attention because Ginobili only plays 31.5 minutes per game. But to see how much he's getting the rock, and how productive he's been when he's had it, let's compare Ginobili's per-40-minute stats to those of another prominent player: Kobe Bryant.
You think he can't hang? Guess again. Kobe averages 29.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.7 assists per 40 minutes; Manu gets 26.2, 6.4 and 5.9.
Wait, it gets better. Kobe plays on one of the league's faster-paced teams; Manu is on the second-slowest. Plug Bryant's numbers into the Spurs' sluggish pace and you get 26.9 points, 5.9 boards and 5.2 assists, making the comparison a dead heat.
Additionally, Ginobili has done it with a spectacular 61.7 true shooting mark that ranks fourth among all shooting guards, and trumps Kobe's 57.7.
All this helps explain why Ginobili ranks fourth in the league in PER. Not that it's anything new -- he was ninth in this category a season ago. It also explains why the Spurs can continue to win despite off years from most of their role players and declining numbers from Duncan and Parker. If every time Ginobili comes off the bench you think to yourself "Kobe Bryant is checking in for the Spurs," their success becomes a lot easier to understand.
Yet because of Ginobili's low minutes and his team's low Q rating, he's failed to get his due as one of the game's biggest stars. He's been amazingly slow to get a superstar's acclaim, with his puzzling All-Star snub being the latest example.
One common misconception is that he benefits from playing mostly against opponents' second-unit players because he comes off the bench. First off, this defies common sense -- nobody else is playing their subs 30 minutes; if Ginobili gets 30 and the opponents' sub at his spot plays 15, it's at most a 50-50 split (and that's only if the minutes align perfectly).
More importantly, the data doesn't support this hypothesis. Check out Ginobili 's splits, folks. Ginobili has been far better as a starter this season, shooting 49.5 percent against 44.5 percent while averaging six points and two assists more per game. This isn't unusual -- the vast majority of players perform better as starters, because apparently the disadvantage of coming into a game cold is greater than the advantage of getting a few extra minutes against the other teams' scrubs.
In short, Ginobili's ability to dominate isn't because he's coming off the bench; it's because he's a flat-out superstar and has been for two years now. The prospect of he and Kobe going shot-for-shot in the conference finals is one of many reasons to be excited about the upcoming playoffs.
John Hollinger: Manu as The Man in San Antonio (http//insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Storylines-080228a&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dStorylines-080228a)
The defending champion Spurs are up to their usual tricks, lying in the weeds for half a season only to make a late run. Once again they're on top of the Southwest division, and nobody will be surprised to see them make another deep playoff run.
However, one thing has changed: the team's offensive focal point. For years, the Spurs' primary weapon has been Tim Duncan and, to a lesser extent, Tony Parker. Not many players in the league can hang with Ginobili's production.
Not anymore. This season, it's the Manu Ginobili show. The sneaky southpaw leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game, but even that understates things. Ginobili's usage rate this season has climbed all the way to 28.0, the sixth-highest figure in the league.
This has escaped people's attention because Ginobili only plays 31.5 minutes per game. But to see how much he's getting the rock, and how productive he's been when he's had it, let's compare Ginobili's per-40-minute stats to those of another prominent player: Kobe Bryant.
You think he can't hang? Guess again. Kobe averages 29.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.7 assists per 40 minutes; Manu gets 26.2, 6.4 and 5.9.
Wait, it gets better. Kobe plays on one of the league's faster-paced teams; Manu is on the second-slowest. Plug Bryant's numbers into the Spurs' sluggish pace and you get 26.9 points, 5.9 boards and 5.2 assists, making the comparison a dead heat.
Additionally, Ginobili has done it with a spectacular 61.7 true shooting mark that ranks fourth among all shooting guards, and trumps Kobe's 57.7.
All this helps explain why Ginobili ranks fourth in the league in PER. Not that it's anything new -- he was ninth in this category a season ago. It also explains why the Spurs can continue to win despite off years from most of their role players and declining numbers from Duncan and Parker. If every time Ginobili comes off the bench you think to yourself "Kobe Bryant is checking in for the Spurs," their success becomes a lot easier to understand.
Yet because of Ginobili's low minutes and his team's low Q rating, he's failed to get his due as one of the game's biggest stars. He's been amazingly slow to get a superstar's acclaim, with his puzzling All-Star snub being the latest example.
One common misconception is that he benefits from playing mostly against opponents' second-unit players because he comes off the bench. First off, this defies common sense -- nobody else is playing their subs 30 minutes; if Ginobili gets 30 and the opponents' sub at his spot plays 15, it's at most a 50-50 split (and that's only if the minutes align perfectly).
More importantly, the data doesn't support this hypothesis. Check out Ginobili 's splits, folks. Ginobili has been far better as a starter this season, shooting 49.5 percent against 44.5 percent while averaging six points and two assists more per game. This isn't unusual -- the vast majority of players perform better as starters, because apparently the disadvantage of coming into a game cold is greater than the advantage of getting a few extra minutes against the other teams' scrubs.
In short, Ginobili's ability to dominate isn't because he's coming off the bench; it's because he's a flat-out superstar and has been for two years now. The prospect of he and Kobe going shot-for-shot in the conference finals is one of many reasons to be excited about the upcoming playoffs.