stevenger
02-29-2008, 02:01 PM
5 New favorites to win the championship
By this time usually there aren't more than three or four serious contenders for the championship. But this year is different.
"There are what, seven, eight, nine teams that could win this thing?'' said San Antonio's Gregg Popovich, who is one of three active coaches with a championship ring. "It's incredible, it's great.''
I can't imagine he truly thinks it's great. Great for us maybe, but not for him. As close as the West playoff race is, his Spurs through Thursday were one game out of the conference lead -- and three games the other way from dropping into seventh place.
The rankings below aren't based on my preseason pick, to which I remain clung despite all reason -- Dallas over Detroit in the NBA Finals. Please consider what follows as an up-to-date appraisal that I'm sure will elicit much dissent. Which, of course, is why I'm doing it.
5. Phoenix Suns. There is plenty of reason to doubt the Suns since their trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. For example:
"I'm a little worried about them,'' an advance scout for an Eastern Conference team said. "Teams that have competed with Phoenix by running back at them are going to be successful now because the Suns have a guy that can't run now. If you have a mobile center, the Suns are going to be in trouble.''
"I didn't think they would ever do that,'' a Western Conference scout said of the Suns' trade for Shaq. "I don't think it helped them. They can't go to him in the last five minutes, because you're going to foul him. Also, teams are going to pick-and-roll them to death, and now they can't switch that stuff like they used to when they were going small. [Steve] Nash was a bad pick-and-roll defender to begin with, so now they've got a bad pick-and-roll defender on the ball and a bad pick-and-roll defender on the screener [in Shaq]. They're more conventional now.''
Yet I maintain (stubbornly, I admit) that the Suns will look better in the grind of the playoffs than in the regular season. Yes, their ups and downs are disturbing in comparison to the high standard they've established in seasons past. But think ahead to the playoffs when the games slow down and they'll have to tough it out in the half court. They'll be tougher in those games, Amaré Stoudemire will be better, their locker room will be happier, and don't you think Nash will eventually figure out how to make sense of their new lineup?
Defense has always been a concern in Phoenix. But those worries are more than offset by a lineup of Stoudemire, Shaq, Grant Hill, Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw on the same team with Nash. That grouping should have a fighter's chance of reaching the NBA Finals. (The Suns, however, will regret their failure to sign Brent Barry this week. That may turn out to be a tipping point against Phoenix.)
4. Boston Celtics. They launched this trend of franchise reinvention last summer by trading future assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Now that Sam Cassell appears headed to Boston, the Celtics will have filled in their biggest pothole: a point guard behind starter Rajon Rondo.
"It would be hard for them if their backup plan was to use Eddie House at point guard,'' the West scout said. "He's not going to be able to survive pressure in a playoff series.''
So long as players like Cassell and center Kendrick Perkins remain healthy throughout the playoffs, the Celtics' threesome of Garnett, Allen and Paul Pierce is more than capable of winning the whole thing. The Celtics have been the hardest-playing team all year, especially at the defensive end, with all three behaving like humble role players away from the ball.
"They aren't as deep offensively as some of these other teams,'' the East scout said. "If Ray Allen isn't on, then they're in a little bit of trouble, because he gets a lot of buckets in transition. Rondo won't be the worst point guard ever in the playoffs; he'll be OK. But they need that backup there ...''
That statement was made before Cassell was waived by the Clippers. Now it's a matter of achieving good health and peaking in time for the playoffs.
3. Detroit Pistons. Perhaps you've forgotten them? They've spent this season running lap after lap behind the Celtics, drafting them like a 10K Olympian content to remain in second place heading into the final turn.
They are the one team in the East with a chance to win the matchups against Boston. Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton can nullify Garnett, Pierce and Allen, respectively, leaving Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to outperform Rondo and Perkins. Then there is the energy supplied by the Pistons' bench, though the reserves still have much to prove.
"When things get tight in the playoffs, who knows if the pressure gets to [rookie guard Rodney] Stuckey?'' the East scout said. "They [the reserves] have been able to get by because they're good defensively and at scoring off their defense, and that's bailing them out from having to execute on the offensive end. When they come in, they pressure the ball and force turnovers and then they're running. If they can do that in the playoffs, then they'll be fine. But when you get into a slower-paced game and you're trying to execute your offense in the half court, I don't know if they're going to be that successful.''
But this scout nonetheless rates Detroit as the likely winner in the East -- indeed, the Pistons are his favorites to beat San Antonio in the NBA Finals. The Pistons claim to be building toward the playoffs as they failed to do the previous few years, and their anger from those postseason losses is simmering.
2. Los Angeles Lakers. They have the NBA's best player, who also happens to be the league's hungriest star, and a coach with as much championship success as the rest of the league altogether.
With the exception of Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson (and of course Derek Fisher), there isn't a lot of winning playoff experience on this team. Is this a year for the Lakers to get close, to position themselves for a run at the championship next year? Or does Kobe push them over the top with the help of the best cast of teammates he's had since the divorce from Shaq?
"You can't say they were overhauled -- they got somebody in [Pau] Gasol who's going to fall in place, and everybody else has been there a few years in that system,'' the East scout said. "Gasol slides in there perfectly as a supporting star.''
The Lakers have been competing for the West's No. 1 seed while awaiting the return of center Andrew Bynum and versatile sub Trevor Ariza. Plug in Bynum's rebounding and shot-blocking alongside Gasol up front, with Lamar Odom and Fisher and what's-his-name with the torn ligament in his pinkie.
"Their bench has been coming on,'' the scout added. "[Jordan] Farmar and [Sasha] Vujacic are deadeye shooters, and [Luke] Walton is a pretty good player. They're deep, strong and they've got the star at the end of games to win it for you.''
This has the makings of an extraordinary sequel. "L.A. and Boston, that would be the dream Finals,'' the West scout said.
What a story that would be. One year ago, few personnel bosses were as vulnerable or second-guessed as Danny Ainge and Mitch Kupchak. Now they are the front-runners for Executive of the Year.
1. San Antonio Spurs. Both scouts see San Antonio as the favorite in the West.
"It's too close to not give them the benefit of the doubt in a seven-game series,'' the West scout said. "It's not only their experience but all of the time they've been playing together. I don't think they're too old. They've got two guys [in Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili] to push it up the floor and give them the easy baskets they need, and then they can grind it out in the half court like they always do.''
"Ginobili is playing at top form right now,'' the East scout said. "They execute so well in the playoffs, and Duncan is just so good.''
The only question here is whether you think the Spurs are too gray. But note that their rivals -- including Phoenix, Dallas and Boston -- made trades to get older. It used to be that teams would acquire size in hopes of matching up against Shaq; now they trade for experience in to order to execute at the Spurs' level.
Read more:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ian_thomsen/02/29/weekly.countdown/index.html?eref=si_nba
By this time usually there aren't more than three or four serious contenders for the championship. But this year is different.
"There are what, seven, eight, nine teams that could win this thing?'' said San Antonio's Gregg Popovich, who is one of three active coaches with a championship ring. "It's incredible, it's great.''
I can't imagine he truly thinks it's great. Great for us maybe, but not for him. As close as the West playoff race is, his Spurs through Thursday were one game out of the conference lead -- and three games the other way from dropping into seventh place.
The rankings below aren't based on my preseason pick, to which I remain clung despite all reason -- Dallas over Detroit in the NBA Finals. Please consider what follows as an up-to-date appraisal that I'm sure will elicit much dissent. Which, of course, is why I'm doing it.
5. Phoenix Suns. There is plenty of reason to doubt the Suns since their trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. For example:
"I'm a little worried about them,'' an advance scout for an Eastern Conference team said. "Teams that have competed with Phoenix by running back at them are going to be successful now because the Suns have a guy that can't run now. If you have a mobile center, the Suns are going to be in trouble.''
"I didn't think they would ever do that,'' a Western Conference scout said of the Suns' trade for Shaq. "I don't think it helped them. They can't go to him in the last five minutes, because you're going to foul him. Also, teams are going to pick-and-roll them to death, and now they can't switch that stuff like they used to when they were going small. [Steve] Nash was a bad pick-and-roll defender to begin with, so now they've got a bad pick-and-roll defender on the ball and a bad pick-and-roll defender on the screener [in Shaq]. They're more conventional now.''
Yet I maintain (stubbornly, I admit) that the Suns will look better in the grind of the playoffs than in the regular season. Yes, their ups and downs are disturbing in comparison to the high standard they've established in seasons past. But think ahead to the playoffs when the games slow down and they'll have to tough it out in the half court. They'll be tougher in those games, Amaré Stoudemire will be better, their locker room will be happier, and don't you think Nash will eventually figure out how to make sense of their new lineup?
Defense has always been a concern in Phoenix. But those worries are more than offset by a lineup of Stoudemire, Shaq, Grant Hill, Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw on the same team with Nash. That grouping should have a fighter's chance of reaching the NBA Finals. (The Suns, however, will regret their failure to sign Brent Barry this week. That may turn out to be a tipping point against Phoenix.)
4. Boston Celtics. They launched this trend of franchise reinvention last summer by trading future assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Now that Sam Cassell appears headed to Boston, the Celtics will have filled in their biggest pothole: a point guard behind starter Rajon Rondo.
"It would be hard for them if their backup plan was to use Eddie House at point guard,'' the West scout said. "He's not going to be able to survive pressure in a playoff series.''
So long as players like Cassell and center Kendrick Perkins remain healthy throughout the playoffs, the Celtics' threesome of Garnett, Allen and Paul Pierce is more than capable of winning the whole thing. The Celtics have been the hardest-playing team all year, especially at the defensive end, with all three behaving like humble role players away from the ball.
"They aren't as deep offensively as some of these other teams,'' the East scout said. "If Ray Allen isn't on, then they're in a little bit of trouble, because he gets a lot of buckets in transition. Rondo won't be the worst point guard ever in the playoffs; he'll be OK. But they need that backup there ...''
That statement was made before Cassell was waived by the Clippers. Now it's a matter of achieving good health and peaking in time for the playoffs.
3. Detroit Pistons. Perhaps you've forgotten them? They've spent this season running lap after lap behind the Celtics, drafting them like a 10K Olympian content to remain in second place heading into the final turn.
They are the one team in the East with a chance to win the matchups against Boston. Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton can nullify Garnett, Pierce and Allen, respectively, leaving Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to outperform Rondo and Perkins. Then there is the energy supplied by the Pistons' bench, though the reserves still have much to prove.
"When things get tight in the playoffs, who knows if the pressure gets to [rookie guard Rodney] Stuckey?'' the East scout said. "They [the reserves] have been able to get by because they're good defensively and at scoring off their defense, and that's bailing them out from having to execute on the offensive end. When they come in, they pressure the ball and force turnovers and then they're running. If they can do that in the playoffs, then they'll be fine. But when you get into a slower-paced game and you're trying to execute your offense in the half court, I don't know if they're going to be that successful.''
But this scout nonetheless rates Detroit as the likely winner in the East -- indeed, the Pistons are his favorites to beat San Antonio in the NBA Finals. The Pistons claim to be building toward the playoffs as they failed to do the previous few years, and their anger from those postseason losses is simmering.
2. Los Angeles Lakers. They have the NBA's best player, who also happens to be the league's hungriest star, and a coach with as much championship success as the rest of the league altogether.
With the exception of Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson (and of course Derek Fisher), there isn't a lot of winning playoff experience on this team. Is this a year for the Lakers to get close, to position themselves for a run at the championship next year? Or does Kobe push them over the top with the help of the best cast of teammates he's had since the divorce from Shaq?
"You can't say they were overhauled -- they got somebody in [Pau] Gasol who's going to fall in place, and everybody else has been there a few years in that system,'' the East scout said. "Gasol slides in there perfectly as a supporting star.''
The Lakers have been competing for the West's No. 1 seed while awaiting the return of center Andrew Bynum and versatile sub Trevor Ariza. Plug in Bynum's rebounding and shot-blocking alongside Gasol up front, with Lamar Odom and Fisher and what's-his-name with the torn ligament in his pinkie.
"Their bench has been coming on,'' the scout added. "[Jordan] Farmar and [Sasha] Vujacic are deadeye shooters, and [Luke] Walton is a pretty good player. They're deep, strong and they've got the star at the end of games to win it for you.''
This has the makings of an extraordinary sequel. "L.A. and Boston, that would be the dream Finals,'' the West scout said.
What a story that would be. One year ago, few personnel bosses were as vulnerable or second-guessed as Danny Ainge and Mitch Kupchak. Now they are the front-runners for Executive of the Year.
1. San Antonio Spurs. Both scouts see San Antonio as the favorite in the West.
"It's too close to not give them the benefit of the doubt in a seven-game series,'' the West scout said. "It's not only their experience but all of the time they've been playing together. I don't think they're too old. They've got two guys [in Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili] to push it up the floor and give them the easy baskets they need, and then they can grind it out in the half court like they always do.''
"Ginobili is playing at top form right now,'' the East scout said. "They execute so well in the playoffs, and Duncan is just so good.''
The only question here is whether you think the Spurs are too gray. But note that their rivals -- including Phoenix, Dallas and Boston -- made trades to get older. It used to be that teams would acquire size in hopes of matching up against Shaq; now they trade for experience in to order to execute at the Spurs' level.
Read more:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ian_thomsen/02/29/weekly.countdown/index.html?eref=si_nba