The Crazy Western Conference

[crellis]

The Year Good Teams Will Go Home Early


Remember last year one of the best teams in the West lost in the first round -- Dallas to Golden State -- and it was pretty much the most shocking condemnation the Mavericks' program could have had. A title contender, losing in the first round?

This year, you just can't have that attitude. I'm telling you right now: title contenders are going down in the first round this year.

Most years there are maybe two or three teams in each conference that are consensus co-favorites to make the Finals? (Like in the East, I'd say it's Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland.)

In the West, to my mind, at the moment there are six.

Six?

SIX!

Only four teams get through the first round in the West. Mathematicaly, certainly two, very possibly three or -- if there's a real Golden State type upset -- four of my six will be gone before much of American even tunes in.

And it won't tell us much about their programs at all. It'll just tell us that this year is insane.

Those six, to me, fall into two groups. The first are the three that, barring injury, I think will beat just about anyone in the first round:

Lakers
Jazz
Spurs

Then there are three more who could win the title, but could also slip up against a good team:

Hornets
Mavericks
Suns

Pretend you believe I'm right that the Lakers, Jazz, and Spurs would all win in the first round. Then that means a lot of things:
Two of them could face each other in the first round, which will mess everything up.

Right now, you'd rather be sixth than fifth in the West, because sixth gets you New Orleans instead of Utah. Could lead to some funny business in the last days of the regular season as teams jockey for the playoffs. And this is not to say that New Orleans is a cakewalk. It's just that the Jazz are some combination of terriers/gladiators. (Ask the Hornets.)

If none of my top three face each other in the first round, that would leave only one series where I think the underdog would win. The two teams in that "other" series are the lucky ones. They dodge the bullet. But how lucky are they really? If the playoffs started today that would be a New Orleans vs. Dallas dogfight. One of those teams would lose, and the other has an puncher's chance at a title.

Don't even get me started on the second round.


http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop?tag=san%20antonio%20spurs

[crellis]

Current Playoff Match-Ups:

Spurs v Warriors
Lakers v Mavericks
Hornets v Suns
Jazz v Rockets

[crellis]

"barring injury'

We all know how close the race is in the West - 6 games separating 1st from 9th - one injury is all it takes for a team to be finishing first and having a run at the championships and planning your summer vacation early.

[J.T.]

Current Playoff Match-Ups:

Spurs v Warriors
Lakers v Mavericks
Hornets v Suns
Jazz v Rockets

Those matchups make the author of that article look pretty stupid, since the favorites are extremely likely to win all four of those series.

[J.T.]

^

In retrospect I might have owned myself a little bit since some people out there think the Suns and Mavericks are title contenders, but if they get sent home by the Lakers and Hornets, two teams that are legit and could very well finish with better records and seeding than them, it's not much to write home about. The Mavs and Suns haven't done much the last several years to make them losing early in the playoffs an "upset".

And the Rockets are playing well right now but Rocketsfan should be pretty scared of Utah without Yao.

[ludda]

I know Jazz got to the Conf finals and they're a nice team, but I don't get why people keep lumping them in the same category as us. I don't know, I just don't see the Jazz as much of a threat, I think they're a very good team but I don't fear them as a playoff matchup.

[crellis]

I think that we match up really well with Utah, thats probably why they are not that big of a problem for us. And thats why i think that it is key for us to be gunning for that first seed in the West, because if we can finish first in West and advance past the first round, then Utah will likely be our second round matchup.

[GrandeDavid]

I don't think the Spurs will be ill prepared for any first round opponent. Its just not in their DNA under Popovich, Duncan and Ginobili. If the opponent in the first round is legitimately a better team than the Spurs, then, yes, the Spurs could lose. But they would unlikely lose by overlooking a team or due to nerves. They're way more developed than that.

[J.T.]

I know Jazz got to the Conf finals and they're a nice team, but I don't get why people keep lumping them in the same category as us. I don't know, I just don't see the Jazz as much of a threat, I think they're a very good team but I don't fear them as a playoff matchup.

I felt the same way about the Jazz, but after taking a look at their stats, there's a reason why some are ranking them at the top of the west. Their 5.5 point differential is second best in the west. LA is ranked first in point differential, but they also give up over 100 points per game, which is good enough for third highest among teams that would make the playoffs if they started today. To make Spurs fans sleep easier, we give up the least amount of points among playoff teams in the west, and are only fractions of a point behind Boston and Detroit :smokin. Anyway, Utah's FG% is best in the league right now (barely under 50%), and they have lost a league-low three home games. That's pretty impressive with most teams at the 60 game mark. With Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer they have two guys that can finish at the rim so that kind of FG% is impressive although understandable.

Williams is extremely talented (and should have been an All-Star), I don't know if you saw him cash in on 19 dimes the other night. Boozer is, of course, a great forward and an All-Star himself. They may not be the deepest team, but they added Kyle Korver earlier this year, who gives them outside shooting to go with their at-the-rim finishers, strong front court presence and defense. Their rebounding is down a little bit from last year, though. They may not be the deepest team, but they're probably the only contender out west that didn't have to make a move to counter the Gasol and Shaq trades.

And of course, Jerry Sloan has seen it all, except for the championship trophy, so you know with the reigns in his hands, they will be focused and have the leadership to get it done. I don't think they will make the conference finals again, but with the right matchup they very well could. However, if they are in the conference semifinals, I won't be surprised at all.

[Bruno]

To me, that's how the west ranks :

Contenders:
1) Lakers: Barring Bynum come back at a good level, Lakers are the bess team in the West.
2) Spurs: Spurs have a very solid team. Beating them won't be easy at all.
3) Mavs: The Kidd trade makes them a better team than before but it could hurt them in some specific matchups.

X-factor:
4) Suns: They are a step behind other contenders. I don't think Shaq will help them as much as Marion but I don't totally rule them off by respect to the great Shaq.

Second round at best:
5) New Orleans: The lack of experience will hurt them in the postseason.
6) Utah: this team is very solid but it won't be enough to go deep in playoffs.

First round exit at best:
7) Rockets: They likely will make the playoffs but without Yao, they, again, won't past the first round.
8) Warriors: Fun team but they lack of fundamentals. Solid teams will beat them in a playoff serie.
9) Denver: I don't see them making the playoffs. Very talented team but George Karl is just an horrible coach.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

^^ thank you. The coach is the main problem in Denver. He doesn't have an passion for winning and has no control over the team.

Remember when he arrived in Denver and they went 32-8? He took control of them, disciplined Melo and got him on the same page.

The Nuggets have loads of talent but no direction or identity coz of their stupid coach. As soon as GK goes then things will get better. I still hope they blow it all up though and dont keep any players on the current roster :lol

[urunobili]

^^ thank you. The coach is the main problem in Denver. He doesn't have an passion for winning and has no control over the team.

Remember when he arrived in Denver and they went 32-8? He took control of them, disciplined Melo and got him on the same page.

The Nuggets have loads of talent but no direction or identity coz of their stupid coach. As soon as GK goes then things will get better. I still hope they blow it all up though and dont keep any players on the current roster :lol
do you think Larry Brown would make that roster better?

[DazedAndConfused]

Move Iverson, bring in a real PG and you guys are set. You can't have two ball dominant players in AI and Melo on the floor at the same time.

[anakha]

I'm not sure who said it, but truer words were never spoken about Iverson:

"What makes him one of a kind also makes it impossible to build around him."

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

do you think Larry Brown would make that roster better?


:lol dont think so. Although at least i know he would be very passionate on the sidelines and get on the players about effort.

Maybe Carlisle or Van Gundy. Someone who can teach some D and halfcourt offense.

[Findog]

New Orleans: 11 home games, 12 road games, 14 against teams over .500, 10 against teams under .500, 8 back to backs

San Antonio: 12 H, 12 R, 15 + .500, 9 -.500, 5 B2B

Dallas: 13 H, 9 R, 13 +.500, 9 -.500, 3 B2B

Houston: 11 H, 12 R, 12 +.500, 11 -.500, 5 B2B

Denver: 11 H, 12 R, 14 +.500, 9 -.500, 6 B2B

Utah: 13 H, 9 R, 13 +.500, 9 -.500, 4 B2B

LA: 13 H, 9 R, 12 +.500, 10 - .500, 3 B2B

Phoenix: 11 H, 12 R, 16 +.500, 7 -.500, 5 B2B

Golden State: 10 H, 14 R, 14 +.500, 10 -.500, 7 B2B

Who do you predict to be the odd team out based on the current standings and what teams have left to play? Golden State, Phoenix, Denver, San Antonio and New Orleans all have it tough, while LA, Dallas and Utah have it pretty easy.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

Move Iverson, bring in a real PG and you guys are set. You can't have two ball dominant players in AI and Melo on the floor at the same time.


i think thats a high possiibility this offseason. AI will opt out and i dont think the Nuggets resign him unless its for cheap.

Cassell is coming to Denver next season but i dont think he could start at his age next year :lol He would be a great bench addition though.

Hopefully the Nuggets can sure up the PG position properly.

Keeping Melo/Nene (if healthy of course) is the only thing id do.

[DazedAndConfused]

Camby and Nene provide a real good defensive combo. They gave the Spurs all kinds of trouble when you beat them earlier this year.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

Yeh Nene does the things that Camby doesn't and vice versa. Nene is a huge key for the Nuggets and it's easy to see that his size in the lowpost is missed greatly. The Nuggets dont have enough good shooters to mask the lack of a low post presence at the moment.

There is a small hope he comes back this month but it depends on what condition he is in.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

New Orleans: 11 home games, 12 road games, 14 against teams over .500, 10 against teams under .500, 8 back to backs

San Antonio: 12 H, 12 R, 15 + .500, 9 -.500, 5 B2B

Dallas: 13 H, 9 R, 13 +.500, 9 -.500, 3 B2B

Houston: 11 H, 12 R, 12 +.500, 11 -.500, 5 B2B

Denver: 11 H, 12 R, 14 +.500, 9 -.500, 6 B2B

Utah: 13 H, 9 R, 13 +.500, 9 -.500, 4 B2B

LA: 13 H, 9 R, 12 +.500, 10 - .500, 3 B2B

Phoenix: 11 H, 12 R, 16 +.500, 7 -.500, 5 B2B

Golden State: 10 H, 14 R, 14 +.500, 10 -.500, 7 B2B

Who do you predict to be the odd team out based on the current standings and what teams have left to play? Golden State, Phoenix, Denver, San Antonio and New Orleans all have it tough, while LA, Dallas and Utah have it pretty easy.

I hate to admit it but the Nuggets will miss out. They just have no chemistry and the coaching-player relationship seems non existant lol.

Id like to think they will go something like 16-7 for the rest of the season but it wouldnt suprise me if they played .500 ball the rest of the way.

[Findog]

I hate to admit it but the Nuggets will miss out. They just have no chemistry and the coaching-player relationship seems non existant lol.

Id like to think they will go something like 16-7 for the rest of the season but it wouldnt suprise me if they played .500 ball the rest of the way.

They have one of the tougher schedules left, it will be hard for them. I'm not too worried about us being the 7 seed right now because we have it relatively easy the rest of the way after Utah tonight. I think we finish with around 53 or 54 wins. I'm guessing that's good for anywhere from the fourth to sixth seed.

Last year there was six games difference between the first and second seeds, and the Suns would've beaten the Mavs without HCA if they had met. Right now there's 5 games between the one and eight seeds, so a 7 beating a 2 wouldn't be that big of an upset.

[BonnerDynasty]

People need to quit grouping the Jazz with the Spurs and Lakers imo.

[Findog]

People need to quit grouping the Jazz with the Spurs and Lakers imo.

Agreed. You only need to worry about them if they have HCA.

[Xolotl]

Maybe its just me being worried but Golden State scares me I know they lack fundamentals but damn they seem to play the Spurs hard...I'm just glad it's not a short series anymore.

[boutons_]

Jazz road record: 13-19. Solid teams win on the road.

[Indazone]

If the playoffs started today, the Spurs would be in trouble if recent history has anything to do with it.

San Antoinio vs. Golden State

REGULAR SEASON SERIES
Warriors lead 2-0
Dec. 11: at Warriors 96, Spurs 84
Jan. 7: at Warriors 130, Spurs 121 (OT)
April 1: Golden State at San Antonio

[Findog]

If the playoffs started today, the Spurs would be in trouble if recent history has anything to do with it.

San Antoinio vs. Golden State

REGULAR SEASON SERIES
Warriors lead 2-0
Dec. 11: at Warriors 96, Spurs 84
Jan. 7: at Warriors 130, Spurs 121 (OT)
April 1: Golden State at San Antonio

We Believe!

[crellis]

And last year Dallas lost all of their regular season match-ups with Golden State before being knocked out in the first round......