Final Texas Polls

[Nbadan]

Should be a interesting day to say the least....knockout punches?


http://www.pollster.com/08TXPresDems600.png

Texas

Rasmussen O 48 C 47

SurveyUSA O 49 C 47

Zogby O 47 C 44

Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php)

[spurster]

Also from the Pollster web site:

http://www.pollster.com/08OHPresDems600.png

Ohio

Rasmussen C 50 O 44

SurveyUSA C 54 O 44

Zogby O 47 C 45

[AFBlue]

Texas wouldn't deliver the knockout punch....Ohio would.

[AFBlue]

Also from the Pollster web site:

http://www.pollster.com/08OHPresDems600.png

Ohio

Rasmussen C 50 O 44

SurveyUSA C 54 O 44

Zogby O 47 C 45


Again, this will be the interesting battle to watch. Will the Obamamentum carry Obama to a narrow victory or even close defeat....either I think would be a "win" for Obama.

On the other hand....if Hillary is able to win, and win handily, I think it slows the Obama train just a bit. I'll be watching this one closely...

[inconvertible]

Obama wins both by 10 points.

[boutons_]

Everybody's been saying she has to win big in both states to win it all.

Losing TX and barely winning OH doesn't sound like her winning big. Her hope is that the polls are wrong.

Will she cede tonight, or screw up and keep messing with the Dem party and distracting Obama ?

[101A]

Hillary will win both - just a gut feeling.

[AFBlue]

Everybody's been saying she has to win big in both states to win it all.

Losing TX and barely winning OH doesn't sound like her winning big. Her hope is that the polls are wrong.

Will she cede tonight, or screw up and keep messing with the Dem party and distracting Obama ?

Too much pride....

I think if she eeks out a narrow win in Ohio, she'll still call it a victory in a "critical general election swing state", to which she'll add Florida and Michigan. Then she'll tout her victories in big states like JY, NJ, and Calilfornia.

It all sounds good....except that she'll still likely be well behind in pledged delegates and most likely behind in national popular vote as well.

That's a tough argument to make to the Superdelegates, but I don't think for one second that she won't make that argument if she wins Ohio and is competitive in Penn next month.

[word]

It's gonna be wild and an absolute hoot to watch. I've been voting since 72 and this election is the funnest/funniest of them all. The democrat convention is going to be a virtual laugh riot.

[JoeChalupa]

My gut tells me Hillary is going to win OH, TX and RI. Barack takes VT.
But if Barack can keep it close he will pick up enough delegates to maintain his lead.

[AFBlue]

My gut tells me Hillary is going to win OH, TX and RI. Barack takes VT.
But if Barack can keep it close he will pick up enough delegates to maintain his lead.

For Obama's sake...I hope you're wrong.

Against any other opponent, winning 11 contests in a row would essentially secure the nomination. But against Hillary, Obama will need every egde that he can get.

If he once again proves that he cannot win large states over Clinton it will be a blow to his campaign.

It doesn't matter that he'll maintain a pledge delegate lead because Hillary will have momentum going into Pennsylvania and will go into the summer with a full court press on the DNC to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates....all of which just might put her over the edge in the minds of the critical Superdelegates, which are necessary for EITHER candidate to secure the nomination.

Barack NEEDS to win at least Texas and needs to not be blown out in Ohio in order to continue his momentum and make a case that Hillary needs to drop out.

[JoeChalupa]

I agree to some extent. If Barack is still ahead in pledged delegates after today I'm hoping Bill Richardson will throw his support behind Barack. We don't need MI and FL getting into the mix. This has to be over before then or it will split the party. TX, IMO, will be won by McCain in the general election.
Barack has also won some key states as well. Maybe not as big as the ones the Clintons are boasting about but he has won some none the less.

[florige]

My gut tells me Hillary is going to win OH, TX and RI. Barack takes VT.
But if Barack can keep it close he will pick up enough delegates to maintain his lead.



Thats what Im thinking too.

[boutons_]

POLL: Should She Stay or Should She Go?

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4378906&page=1

It sure sounds like the Dems are ready to tear themselves apart and give themselves a great chance to have war-monger McCain continue all of dubya's disastrous failures for a 100 years.

[AFBlue]

I agree to some extent. If Barack is still ahead in pledged delegates after today I'm hoping Bill Richardson will throw his support behind Barack. We don't need MI and FL getting into the mix. This has to be over before then or it will split the party. TX, IMO, will be won by McCain in the general election.
Barack has also won some key states as well. Maybe not as big as the ones the Clintons are boasting about but he has won some none the less.

If you read between the lines on Richardson, I could definitely see him supporting Obama after tomorrow....but then again, I have to ask why it matters. I mean, Richardson has the distinction of being a candidate for President, but his state has already voted....as has the majority of states with large hispanic populations.

If Obama could secure the endorsement of John Edwards or even Al Gore...THEN you're talking major impact.

And I agree that Barack has won some key states, but Clinton will argue that the states she won will matter most in the general election...especially if she wins the last two battleground states (FL in 2000, OH in 2004) by large margins.

Again, it's nothing against "ya boy", but if Hillary wins in Ohio today I can almost guarantee that she'll soldier on to the convention, or at least Pennsylvania, and make every effort to do those things I listed in my first post....health of the party be damned.

[Holt's Cat]

Hillary will win both - just a gut feeling.

Based on the polling I've seen for Ohio that seems to be the case. Texas, I'm not so sure.

[JoeChalupa]

If you read between the lines on Richardson, I could definitely see him supporting Obama after tomorrow....but then again, I have to ask why it matters. I mean, Richardson has the distinction of being a candidate for President, but his state has already voted....as has the majority of states with large hispanic populations.

If Obama could secure the endorsement of John Edwards or even Al Gore...THEN you're talking major impact.

And I agree that Barack has won some key states, but Clinton will argue that the states she won will matter most in the general election...especially if she wins the last two battleground states (FL in 2000, OH in 2004) by large margins.

Again, it's nothing against "ya boy", but if Hillary wins in Ohio today I can almost guarantee that she'll soldier on to the convention, or at least Pennsylvania, and make every effort to do those things I listed in my first post....health of the party be damned.

I concur. Hillary isn't going to drop anytime soon regardless of the outcome. And I actually like John McCain much more than Dubya.

[some_user86]

I think she narrowly picks up a victory in Texas polls, but Obama wins more delegates. Remember, we're weird with our caucas and polling system. And the delegate distribution heavily favors those districts that had most enthusiastic Democratic primary voter participation over the last two elections - namely Houston, Dallas, and Austin, which are all in the middle of Obama's pocket of votes.

Hillary will most definitely call this a victory even if she just squeaks by, but doesn't pick up more delegates.

Anyone here think that if she wins Ohio, Texas, and later Pennsylvania and yet doesn't gain a lead in true delegate count that she will manage to seat Michigan and Florida and win the nomination anyways?

[AFBlue]

Anyone here think that if she wins Ohio, Texas, and later Pennsylvania and yet doesn't gain a lead in true delegate count that she will manage to seat Michigan and Florida and win the nomination anyways?

I think the right question might be who doesn't think she would do that if she captured Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania...

She made a promise the night she won in FL that she would get the delegates seated...and I don't care if she's narrowly behind or narrowly ahead, that'll stay the plan.

Bottom Line: If she's still in this race at the convention, she'll get the delegates seated and make the case that she's not that far behind on pledge delegates or in the popular vote...leave it up to the Superdelegates.