Exit Polls

[Nbadan]

First exit polls coming out from Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont for what they are worth...

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont


This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

You'll hear more as I learn more.

His early exits were very reliable in Wisconsin.

Link (http://hillaryspot.nationalreview.com/)

[Holt's Cat]

Well clearly she won't be getting the large margin she needs to legitimately claim a comeback. But she will continue with the faint hope that somehow she can get Florida and Michigan into her column.

[Nbadan]

From the AP:


Hispanics, a group that has favored Clinton in earlier primaries, cast nearly one-third of the Election Day votes in Texas, up from about one quarter of the ballots four years ago, according to interviews with voters as they left their polling places. Blacks, who have voted heavily for Obama this year, accounted for roughly 20 percent of the votes cast, roughly the same as four years ago.

The economy was the No. 1 concern on the minds of Democratic voters in Texas, Rhode Island and especially in Ohio. But in Vermont, almost as many voters said the war in Iraq was their top concern.

More than three-quarters of Ohio Democrats said international trade had cost their state more jobs than it had created. The interviews did not take into account early voting, which was heavy in Texas and in parts of Ohio.

Roughly six in 10 of the Democrats who were questioned said that so-called superdelegates, who are party officials, should vote at the national convention based on the results of primaries and caucuses. That was unwelcome news for Clinton, who trails Obama among delegates picked in the states but holds a lead among superdelegates.

After 11 straight victories, Obama had the momentum and the lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count, 1,386-1,276.

His margin was larger - 1,187-1,035 - among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses. The former first lady had an advantage among superdelegates, 241-199.

That left Clinton in desperate need of a comeback with time running out - if it hadn't already.

Some of her supporters, her husband the former president among them, said she needed to outpoll Obama in both Texas and Ohio to sustain her candidacy.

Without conceding anything, Obama's allies said even that wouldn't be enough, given his lead in the delegate count and party rules that virtually assure primary losers a significant share of the spoils.

Nevertheless in appearances Tuesday, Clinton sounded like she might continue her campaign if she won only Ohio, and Obama sounded almost resigned to an extension of the nomination battle.

"You don't get to the White House as a Democrat without winning Ohio," Clinton said in Houston.

"My husband didn't get the nomination wrapped up until June (in 1992). That has been the tradition," she added, without mentioning that this year most primaries were held much earlier than in 1992. "This is a very close race."

In San Antonio, Obama called Clinton "a tenacious and determined candidate" and predicted little shift in his delegate lead no matter who won Texas and Ohio, "which means that either way, we'll go on through Mississippi and Wyoming next week." Pennsylvania, the biggest single prize left, follows on April 22.

"All those states coming up are going to make a difference," he said. "What we want to do is make sure we're competing in every single state."

It takes 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination, and slightly more than 600 remained to be picked in the 10 states that vote after Tuesday.

The Democratic marathon was in contrast to a Republican race that was fierce while it lasted, but has long since been settled.

McCain, the Arizona senator, began the night with 1,014 delegates out of the 1,191 needed for the nomination at the party convention next summer in St. Paul, Minn. There were 256 Republican delegates at stake in the four states on the night's ballot.

McCain's sole major remaining rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, had 257 delegates, and posed no threat.

It was McCain's second run at the nomination, after his loss to George W. Bush in 2000. Once the front-runner for 2008, his campaign nearly imploded last summer. But he regrouped, reassuming the underdog role that he relishes, and methodically dispatched one rival after another in a string of primaries in January and early February.

In the Democratic half of the most wide-open presidential campaign in a half-century, Obama looked for the knockout blow while Clinton sought a revival.

As before, he outspent her in television commercials, an advantage padded by unions working in his behalf.

Rhode Island and Vermont received little attention from either of the candidates, who devoted most of their time to Ohio and Texas. They debated once in each big state, and stressed issues that varied from one to the other.

AP (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RDP?SITE=ALMON&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

[Nbadan]

But she will continue with the faint hope that somehow she can get Florida and Michigan into her column.

No way that happens...there would be revolt in the Democratic Party

[Holt's Cat]

I think she'd go for a revote or caucuses in those states at this point.

[Nbadan]

From SurveryUSA:


Do-Si-Do In Texas Democratic Primary: Clinton and Obama End-Up Even -- 36 hours till votes are counted in the Texas Democratic Primary, contest is a Jump Ball, with Obama's momentum now slowed, and possibly stalled, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 5 points. Last week, Obama led by 4 points. Now, Obama leads by 6/10ths of 1 point, effectively tied, and completely consistent with either candidate winning tomorrow by a narrow margin. Clinton's inroads in the final week come among voters age 35 to 49, where she is even today, after trailing by 18 points last week. In East Texas, which includes Houston, Clinton had trailed by 18, now trails by 5. This is offset in Central TX, which includes Austin, where Clinton led last week immediately after being endorsed by the University of Texas newspaper, but now trails by 19. Among voters who attend religious services regularly: tied. Among Pro-Life voters: tied. Among Pro-Choice voters: tied. Among voters focused on the Economy: tied. Obama remains far ahead among men. Clinton remains far ahead among women. Among Latino voters, Clinton finishes 2:1 ahead of Obama, better than she polled 1 week ago, but comparable to where she polled 2 weeks ago.

SurveyUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e)

[Nbadan]

From ABC News...


The theme of change continues to resonate in Ohio and Texas, but not by as wide a margin as in most previous primaries. The ability to "bring needed change" beats "experience" as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results.

That compares, for example, with the Wisconsin primary, where change beat experience by 32 points.

Preliminary exit poll results also suggest a healthy turnout by Latinos in the Texas Democratic primary, where early results indicate they're accounting for just over three in 10 voters. If that holds, it'll be a record.

Blacks account for about two in 10 Texas Democratic voters, closer to their customary share of the electorate. In this early data blacks also account for two in 10 in Ohio, which if it holds would be up from 2004.

Turnout among women looks to be up in both states in these preliminary results -- they account for about six in 10 voters in Ohio, and not quite as many in Texas, compared with 52 percent in Ohio and 53 percent in Texas in 2004.

The economy is the top issue in Texas and Ohio alike, and most strikingly so in Ohio, where nearly six in 10 Democrats rank it as the single most important issue. If that holds in later data, Ohio would be second only to Michigan in the importance of the economy to Democratic primary voters.

Almost eight in 10 in Ohio are worried about their family's finances, and about four in 10 are "very" worried about it. And voters there almost unanimously say the national economy is in bad shape. Somewhat fewer in Texas are "very" worried about their own finances, around three in 10 in these preliminary results.

The early exit poll data suggest a smaller-than-previous turnout by union voters in Ohio. At the same time it also finds broad anti-trade sentiment: About eight in 10 believe that trade with other countries takes more jobs from Ohio than it creates. Anti-trade sentiment is lower in Texas, with about six in 10 there saying trade takes jobs.

ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1)

[Nbadan]

First exit polls from Huffington Post:



VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33
OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49
TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49
RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49

Link (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/)

[Nbadan]

From CNN per SurveyUSA...looks like Hispanics are voting 64-32 Clinton in Texas...


"These early surveys provide a snapshot of the race, but are not conclusive on who will win the critical contest.

Eighty-three percent of blacks voted for Obama, while 16 percent supported Clinton, according to the exit poll.

Meanwhile, 64 percent of Hispanics backed Clinton, while 32 percent went for Obama."

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/04/march.4.contests/index.html)

[Holt's Cat]

First exit polls from Huffington Post:




Link (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/)


Please hold up.

[Nbadan]

Please hold up.

Hasn't held up very well in the poll numbers in Vermont, but the final result did...

[some_user86]

Texas votes won't begin to be counted until tomorrow?

[Nbadan]

Texas votes won't begin to be counted until tomorrow?

No, no...the final caucus votes

[some_user86]

No, no...the final caucus votes

Oh, ok.

[Wild Cobra]

Anyone think the bitch will call it quits yet?

[Yonivore]

Anyone think the bitch will call it quits yet?
Not a chance.

[Extra Stout]

Anyone think the bitch will call it quits yet?
Why would she quit on a night when she won Texas and Ohio?

[Wild Cobra]

Why would she quit on a night when she won Texas and Ohio?
She wont. I was goping by the exit polls posted by Dan:


VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33
OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49
TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49
RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49

[Extra Stout]

She wont. I was goping by the exit polls posted by Dan:
This year exit polls are only accurate to within 10%, which makes them about as useful as numbers that you simply make up.

[Wild Cobra]

This year exit polls are only accurate to within 10%, which makes them about as useful as numbers that you simply make up.
Agreed, and worse yet for my humiliation, was that it came from "The Huffington Post," and I went with it.

[Nbadan]

Why would she quit on a night when she won Texas and Ohio?

It's not that she lost either state, she was the front-runner by 20 points weeks ago, it's that Obama was able to represent and get his portion of Demo delegates...

[Nbadan]

...the whole idea was for Clinton to make up room in the delegate count were Obama leads by about 150, well, if you look at tonight in that context, then it was very successful night for Obama because Hillary will gain 5 to 7 total delegates when the night is over....