Can Hillary Win?

[Nbadan]

Even IF she wins Texas and Ohio today....Not likely...


qq7EUUmZbls

[Hillary]

Just remember .........payback is a bitch!

[George Gervin's Afro]

I caucused for Hilary tonight.. I came across some rude obama folks... I wanted to remind them that they still needed my vote for thier guyto be Pres.. but if they were to stupid to figure that out maybe they shouldn't be voting..

I am leading towards McCain if Obama wins...

[atxrocker]

I am leading towards McCain if Obama wins...


same here or may just not vote at all in this election

[PixelPusher]

I caucused for Hilary tonight.. I came across some rude obama folks... I wanted to remind them that they still needed my vote for thier guyto be Pres.. but if they were to stupid to figure that out maybe they shouldn't be voting..

I am leading towards McCain if Obama wins...
You're voting for McCain because a couple of Obama supporters were rude to you?

Pathetic.

[George Gervin's Afro]

You're voting for McCain because a couple of Obama supporters were rude to you?

Pathetic.


Maye I trust McCain more than Obama? Possible?

[some_user86]

Maye I trust McCain more than Obama? Possible?

I saw your other thread and asked you for your reasoning. You said you liked McCain. Fine.

But what is wrong with Obama that he is less trustworthy than McCain?

[Yonivore]

I saw your other thread and asked you for your reasoning. You said you liked McCain. Fine.

But what is wrong with Obama that he is less trustworthy than McCain?
Uh, he's been busted in a big lie?

[George Gervin's Afro]

I saw your other thread and asked you for your reasoning. You said you liked McCain. Fine.

But what is wrong with Obama that he is less trustworthy than McCain?


Since the beginning of the Dem race my underlying thought about Obama was of his inexperience.. I think very highly of him but I think he would have been beter off being somone's VP candidate... I trust Mcain's judgement as opposed to Obama's..now I would feel completely different if a hard core right winger were the GOP nominee..As I said I would rather have a republican lite president and dem controlled congress. It's not good for the country when one party controls all three branches..

[some_user86]

Uh, he's been busted in a big lie?

So has McCain. Several times.

Listen, I am genuinely curious to learn about GGA's reasoning. Considering that I am in the reverse position (would for McCain if Hilary is the nominee), I want to know what is behind his reasoning. It's genuinely the first I have heard of someone switching to McCain if Obama became the nominee. I've heard of plenty who would do as I do and plenty who would switch from McCain to Obama, but this is a first.

So I am a genuinely curious. Therefore, I would appreciate to not observe any partisan hackry from you, sir.

[some_user86]

Since the beginning of the Dem race my underlying thought about Obama was of his inexperience.. I think very highly of him but I think he would have been beter off being somone's VP candidate... I trust Mcain's judgement as opposed to Obama's..now I would feel completely different if a hard core right winger were the GOP nominee..As I said I would rather have a republican lite president and dem controlled congress. It's not good for the country when one party controls all three branches..

Thank you for your response.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Thank you for your response.



I think the primary reason why I support Clinton is that I trust her judgement more than I trust McCain's judgement...of course if she wins the presidency then the dems would control all three branches... back to square one..I am really torn about this whole process

[some_user86]

Since the beginning of the Dem race my underlying thought about Obama was of his inexperience.. I think very highly of him but I think he would have been beter off being somone's VP candidate... I trust Mcain's judgement as opposed to Obama's..now I would feel completely different if a hard core right winger were the GOP nominee..As I said I would rather have a republican lite president and dem controlled congress. It's not good for the country when one party controls all three branches..

Although, I must say that traditionally the government has worked best when the Presidency is controlled by a Democrat and the Congress controlled by a Republican. In terms of fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets I mean. We've run up deficits every Republican presidency since Reagan. I consider Reagan to be the death of the old fiscal conservative Republican party. His was the birth of the Moral Majority crap that runs against the very fiber of a libertarian at heart. And that was when I was wee little kid. Sad.

[SA210]

I caucused for Hilary tonight...

:toast

[some_user86]

I think the primary reason why I support Clinton is that I trust her judgement more than I trust McCain's judgement...of course if she wins the presidency then the dems would control all three branches... back to square one..I am really torn about this whole process

See there in lies the problem. That Obama commercial perfectly addressed this. What good is all the experience in the world if you don't have good judgement to go along with it. She has made misjudgements before. So has Obama. So has McCain. Experience means diddly squat when they all make similar mistakes. It's each candidate's ability to accept that mistake as a true mistake that differentiates these candidates from our current president. So, there is at least hope in that aspect, right?

As long as McCain follows prudent fiscal policy and reduces the deficit, I have no qualms. I am just too weary that these last 8 years he has shown a willingness to tow the party line above his better judgement. That is my fear with McCain.

My god, what a president McCain would have made in 2000! Before he got brainwashed by the fucking Moral Majority and the neo-cons. They beat the Old GOP out of him. :(

[PixelPusher]

I think the primary reason why I support Clinton is that I trust her judgement more than I trust McCain's judgement...of course if she wins the presidency then the dems would control all three branches... back to square one..I am really torn about this whole process
So you agree with her "judgment" on the only significant foreign policy decision she's ever been involved with...the authorization of the Iraq war.

[George Gervin's Afro]

So you agree with her "judgment" on the only significant foreign policy decision she's ever been involved with...the authorization of the Iraq war.


Like every other democrat who voted for the war she trusted bush and what he told her. she has since said she wouldn't do it again if asked..anything else?

[Yonivore]

So you agree with her "judgment" on the only significant foreign policy decision she's ever been involved with...the authorization of the Iraq war.
Yes. Pretty much the only good thing about her, she understands the nature of the war and the stakes.

[PixelPusher]

Like every other democrat who voted for the war she trusted bush and what he told her. she has since said she wouldn't do it again if asked..anything else?
So because other Democrats were (and still are) political cowards it ok? Perhaps it's was her "years of experience" that gave here a pass to actually read through the intelligence report before voting.

[George Gervin's Afro]

So because other Democrats were (and still are) political cowards it ok? Perhaps it's was her "years of experience" that gave here a pass to actually read through the intelligence report before voting.


So are you inferring that Obama is 100% perfect? Are we going to now look for a candidate that is 100% right all of the time? I guess Democrats are cowards now for voting for the war.. :rolleyes speaking of experience what is obama's exactly? Since you brought it up I assume you can provide some of Obama's..are you one of those fainters?

[PixelPusher]

So are you inferring that Obama is 100% perfect? Are we going to now look for a candidate that is 100% right all of the time? I guess Democrats are cowards now for voting for the war.. :rolleyes speaking of experience what is obama's exactly? Since you brought it up I assume you can provide some of Obama's..are you one of those fainters?
I didn't vote for Obama based on experience. I voted for him based on character and judgement. You are the one who has to explain Hillary Clinton's "experience" to me. 8 years as a Senator + 8 years as Bill's wife does not equal Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd, or even Bill Richardson.

[George Gervin's Afro]

I didn't vote for Obama based on experience. I voted for him based on character and judgement. You are the one who has to explain Hillary Clinton's "experience" to me. 8 years as a Senator + 8 years as Bill's wife does not equal Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd, or even Bill Richardson.


I voted for Clinton based on her character and judgement.. she is 60 yrs old and by that alone she has 12 more years of life experience.. she is tough and disciplined. she is a leader.. so is McCain...

[PixelPusher]

are you one of those fainters?
I see. Everyone who votes for Obama is a fainter.

If you wanna go ad hominem...


http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/04/race-and-gender-both-helped-clinton.aspx

I just noticed something really interesting from that CNN exit poll I mentioned below. One question asked if the candidate's gender was important. 17% said yes, and of them, Clinton won 57-43. So voters who wanted a female candidate outnumbered those who did not. Another question asked if the candidate's race was important. 20% said yes, and of those, Clinton again won 57-43. So voters who did not want a black candidate outnumbered those who did. Race and gender both seemed to cut in Clinton's favor -- which may not be a shock, since whites and females outnumbered blacks and males.

In both questions, voters who did not care about race or gender split evenly. Clinton's winning margin -- assuming the exits hold up, and it is close enough that maybe it won't -- came from the pro-female, anti-black (or, I guess, anti-male, pro-white) vote.

--Jonathan Chait
Are you one of those Clinton racists?

[PixelPusher]

I voted for Clinton based on her character and judgement.. she is 60 yrs old and by that alone she has 12 more years of life experience.. she is tough and disciplined. she is a leader.. so is McCain...
So it's all about age? So skip Clinton all together and vote McCain.


btw, just out of curiosity, are you of the Baby Boomer generation?

[PixelPusher]

she is tough and disciplined
Tough? Yes.

Disciplined? Not apparent in her campaign so far...

[Yonivore]

Tough? Yes.

Disciplined? Not apparent in her campaign so far...
Yeah, but I suspect that with this second wind she's getting, she'll start stripping the varnish off of Barak Obama.

[George Gervin's Afro]

So it's all about age? So skip Clinton all together and vote McCain.


btw, just out of curiosity, are you of the Baby Boomer generation?

I was born in 69

[PixelPusher]

I was born in 69
Gen Xer. Same here.

[florige]

Even if Hillary won the remaining 16 contest, which she won't, mathmatically there is no way possible for her to make up the delegate deficit. Her only argument that she has now is that she has won the big states, CA,OH,NY, etc... Honestly I think that she knows that she has no chance. I think she is dragging this thing out so as to force the hand of the democratic party to make her the senate majority leader. She knows she has no real chance at winning the nomination. Obama's margins of victory during that streak pretty much ended it for her.

[AFBlue]

:lol @ the guy on the youtube vid...he basically laid out the "most optimistic" scenario for Clinton with her winning 3 of the 4 states and capturing 30 delegates....which came true!!!!

He then makes the assumption that the superdelegates will vote the way of the pledge delegates at the convention....which is a completely false logic.

Especially if she continues to close the gap in pledged delegates, then she can make the claim that millions of people DID vote for her and that this was a closely contested campaign...not some blowout that she's asking the supers to "steal" back for her with their vote.

Add to that her strongest argument....she won nearly every swing state and big state that a democrat must win to capture the nomination, and in most cases she won those states handily.

So, yes....she CAN win the nomination.

The question then becomes....can she win the general?

[DarkReign]

The question then becomes....can she win the general?

Nope.

[spurster]

I think Clinton's experience is overrated, but I also think Obama's judgment is overrated. Both candidates have very similar positions on the issues, so for anybody issue-oriented there isn't much reason to go to McCain if your candidate goes down. As far as Obama being tough, he started politics in Chicago, as tough a place as any. His toughness just hasn't been as visible what Clinton has gone through. I think you'll see Obama rebound, but if Clinton can win most of the rest of the primaries, she will have a good case.

[DarkReign]

I think Clinton's experience is overrated, but I also think Obama's judgment is overrated. Both candidates have very similar positions on the issues, so for anybody issue-oriented there isn't much reason to go to McCain if your candidate goes down. As far as Obama being tough, he started politics in Chicago, as tough a place as any. His toughness just hasn't been as visible what Clinton has gone through. I think you'll see Obama rebound, but if Clinton can win most of the rest of the primaries, she will have a good case.

While you may be right, it doesnt matter who wins the Dem nomination anymore.

McCain has it all wrapped up in November (barring seom major scandal).

As of today, McCain campaigns for the Presidency. What are the Dems doing? Oh thats right, bickering with one another.

Losers who were born to lose. There is something to be said for solidarity, something Dems lack entirely.

[xrayzebra]

Yeah, but I suspect that with this second wind she's getting, she'll start stripping the varnish off of Barak Obama.

I suspect he is going to do that all by himself. He has
already shown he cant handle the press when the questions
get a little tough. :elephant

[florige]

While you may be right, it doesnt matter who wins the Dem nomination anymore.

McCain has it all wrapped up in November (barring seom major scandal).

As of today, McCain campaigns for the Presidency. What are the Dems doing? Oh thats right, bickering with one another.

Losers who were born to lose. There is something to be said for solidarity, something Dems lack entirely.



Yeah, thats the same thing I'm starting to think too. McCain now can just sit back and watch the dems tear one another apart.

[Nbadan]

:lol @ the guy on the youtube vid...he basically laid out the "most optimistic" scenario for Clinton with her winning 3 of the 4 states and capturing 30 delegates....which came true!!!!

He then makes the assumption that the superdelegates will vote the way of the pledge delegates at the convention....which is a completely false logic.

Especially if she continues to close the gap in pledged delegates, then she can make the claim that millions of people DID vote for her and that this was a closely contested campaign...not some blowout that she's asking the supers to "steal" back for her with their vote.

Add to that her strongest argument....she won nearly every swing state and big state that a democrat must win to capture the nomination, and in most cases she won those states handily.

So, yes....she CAN win the nomination.

The question then becomes....can she win the general?

Hillary can claim whatever she likes, but the facts remains that she still trails in the pleged delegate count by a pretty wide margin....I know one of your your pet fantasies is to see the Democratic party crumble just to please Hillary so that McCain can get swept in office in the general, but get real man.....the super-delegates will go with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates -book it!

[xrayzebra]

Hillary can claim whatever she likes, but the facts remains that she still trails in the pleged delegate count by a pretty wide margin....I know one of your your pet fantasies is to see the Democratic party crumble just to please Hillary so that McCain can get swept in office in the general, but get real man.....the super-delegates will go with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates -book it!

dan, you lose! Nothing is written in stone in the dimm-o-crap
party. Deals, deals, deals, you take care of me, I take care
of you.

You want to make book. Bet on Florida and Michigan
coming back to life........political reality.

[Nbadan]

Look, Hillary needed wins in Texas and Ohio last night just to stay alive....Obama didn't, he's likely to win a majority of the delegates who are left leaving him with a commanding lead when all the voting is said and done...Florida and Michigan knew the consequences if they moved their primary dates up, don't expect any 'back-room deals' to re-seat those delegates...

[George Gervin's Afro]

Look, Hillary needed wins in Texas and Ohio last night just to stay alive....Obama didn't, he's likely to win a majority of the delegates who are left leaving him with a commanding lead when all the voting is said and done...Florida and Michigan knew the consequences if they moved their primary dates up, don't expect any 'back-room deals' to re-seat those delegates...


And kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye in the general election..Great plan..

[xrayzebra]

dan, it aint over till the fat lady sings. And like I have said before,
I don't even hear her warming up. It is going to the convention
to determine who the winner is. Clinton, inc. wants this
nominiation, boy do they, and Obama may have come up in
Chicago politics, but he hasn't seen anything yet.

[some_user86]

And kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye in the general election..Great plan..

If Florida and Michigan are reseated, it'll have to be through another election or caucus. Results still favor Obama, even if loses, as the margin of victory for either candidate will be much closer.

[George Gervin's Afro]

If Florida and Michigan are reseated, it'll have to be through another election or caucus. Results still favor Obama, even if loses, as the margin of victory for either candidate will be much closer.


I'm cool with that but let them vote.. If Obama kicks Hillary's ass then so be it.

[Nbadan]

Yep....numbers don't lie...


DNC-Sanctioned Contests
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695

Including Florida
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681

Including Florida And Michigan
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175

Link (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_still_has_popular_vote_l.php)

It takes MI, where Obama did not get ANY votes, for her to get the popular vote. Even with Florida alone, he has the popular vote.

[some_user86]

dan, it aint over till the fat lady sings. And like I have said before,
I don't even hear her warming up. It is going to the convention
to determine who the winner is. Clinton, inc. wants this
nominiation, boy do they, and Obama may have come up in
Chicago politics, but he hasn't seen anything yet.

Don't count him out just yet. He's got a very, very well co-ordinated camp. He has the backing of some extremely skilled politicians (Kennedy), many who are working day and night for him right now (Daschalle).

[some_user86]

I'm cool with that but let them vote.. If Obama kicks Hillary's ass then so be it.

No, I'm pretty sure she still wins. Just not by a margin large enough to make a splash in the delegate differential.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Yep....numbers don't lie...



Link (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_still_has_popular_vote_l.php)

It takes MI, where Obama did not get ANY votes, for her to get the popular vote. Even with Florida alone, he has the popular vote.


So if Clinton catches him with the popular vote then what? There is only a 30,000 + difference.. she could win PA by 3 times that margin..

[xrayzebra]

Don't count him out just yet. He's got a very, very well co-ordinated camp. He has the backing of some extremely skilled politicians (Kennedy), many who are working day and night for him right now (Daschalle).

Don't doubt your statement whatsoever. He has proven
he is a player. But it is going down to the wire. As a
conservative I am loving every minute of it. And with
the Rezko (sp) trial coming up and Obama needing
to deflect things, boy-o-boy, things are going to get
interesting. And forgive me, but I can't help thinking
about old Larry Flynt just setting in the wings waiting on
Billary to beckon to him. Slim is what slim is. Politics.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Don't doubt your statement whatsoever. He has proven
he is a player. But it is going down to the wire. As a
conservative I am loving every minute of it. And with
the Rezko (sp) trial coming up and Obama needing
to deflect things, boy-o-boy, things are going to get
interesting. And forgive me, but I can't help thinking
about old Larry Flynt just setting in the wings waiting on
Billary to beckon to him. Slim is what slim is. Politics.


No ray clinton's going to play dirty politics.. and Obama's shit don't stink either..he's the second coming.. haven't you heard?

[AFBlue]

Hillary can claim whatever she likes, but the facts remains that she still trails in the pleged delegate count by a pretty wide margin....I know one of your your pet fantasies is to see the Democratic party crumble just to please Hillary so that McCain can get swept in office in the general, but get real man.....the super-delegates will go with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates -book it!

I have no "pet fantasies" about the democrats tearing eachother down and going to the convention so that McCain gets an easy ride into the White House.

After the nominee is chosen there is still two months for the democratic candidate to make their case to the American people. You can point to any number of reasons why it will be difficult for McCain to secure the presidency...

1) Economy leaning towards recession
2) Unpopular stance on unpopular war in Iraq
3) No elaborate domestic policy (i.e. make tax cuts permanent and de-regulate)
4) Member of the "old guard" in Washington

And so on and so forth....

I didn't make the claim that Hillary could win because it plays out some "fantasy" or that I actually think she's easier to beat in November. I legitimately think she can win, and I think my case is fairly compelling.

If she's NARROWLY behind in pledged delegates and/or popular vote by the time the convention rolls around, she can make the case that she has won the last two major battleground states (OH and FL) handily, that she's more prepared to lead, and that she's the "known quantity".

These "party insiders" are supposed to know a hell of alot more than Average Joe Voter, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them exercise their independent vote if the margin of difference in pledge delegates and/or popular vote is minimal.

[AFBlue]

Yep....numbers don't lie...


DNC-Sanctioned Contests
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695

Including Florida
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681

Including Florida And Michigan
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175


Link (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_still_has_popular_vote_l.php)

It takes MI, where Obama did not get ANY votes, for her to get the popular vote. Even with Florida alone, he has the popular vote.

Look at those numbers....

Right now it's at a paltry 600K voters with almost 27 MILLION having voted already. And if she captures Pennsylvania by a decent margin, which is looking plausible, she'll cut into that lead even further.

I'm saying that even if she's down in the popular vote by the time this gets to the convention, if it's tenths or hundredths of percentage points, don't think for a second that Superdelegates won't exercise their right to vote independent of their voting districts or of the general outcome.